Byron Buxton's Arm Strength Is Slipping. Should the Twins Be Concerned?

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of Brian Bradshaw Sevald-USA TODAY Sports

Health has become a little less of a concern for Byron Buxton in recent years. After spending much of the previous decade navigating injuries, Buxton has played more than 100 games in back-to-back seasons and is on pace to do it again in 2026. Please find the nearest piece of wood and knock on it immediately.

Still, Father Time remains undefeated. The good news for Minnesota is that Buxton's offensive profile has evolved in ways that should help him age gracefully. Last week, I wrote about how his declining bat speed may have actually contributed to some of the best power production of his career. He can still handle premium velocity, but he's also doing a better job adjusting to breaking balls and offspeed pitches.

Unfortunately, aging doesn't just impact players in the batter's box. It eventually shows up everywhere else. One area where the decline is becoming increasingly noticeable is Buxton's throwing arm.

The Numbers Tell a Clear Story

For most of his career, Buxton possessed one of the most complete defensive skill sets in baseball. His elite speed allowed him to cover massive amounts of ground, and his arm gave runners a reason to think twice before taking an extra base. That second part is becoming less true.

In 2024, Buxton averaged 90.3 mph on his throws from the outfield, ranking in the 88th percentile across baseball. His arm value measured one run above average, placing him in the 74th percentile. The following season, his average arm strength dipped to 88.6 mph, still a respectable mark that ranked in the 77th percentile. His arm value, however, fell to exactly average.

This season, the decline has accelerated. Buxton is averaging 85.1 mph on his throws, which ranks in just the 57th percentile. His arm value has dropped to -1 run, placing him in the 19th percentile. Those aren't catastrophic numbers, but they represent a dramatic change from the player Twins fans have watched for most of the last decade.

Opposing Teams Have Noticed

Baseball teams are exceptionally good at identifying weaknesses, especially in a world where organizations have seemingly unlimited data at their fingertips.  When a pitcher loses velocity, opponents attack. When a hitter struggles against breaking balls, pitchers adjust. The same principle applies to outfield arms.

Runners are becoming increasingly aggressive against Buxton. He has been worth -3 runs on baserunner advances this season after posting a -6 mark in 2025. Opponents have challenged him 49 times this year, and he has yet to record a single outfield assist. That doesn't necessarily mean Buxton has become a liability. It does mean the intimidation factor is gone.

For years, runners often looked at the name on the back of the jersey and slammed on the brakes. Now they're testing him and finding little reason not to keep going.

How Does the Rest of His Defense Stand Up?

Before anyone starts preparing a farewell ceremony for Buxton in center field, it's important to remember that his overall defensive performance remains solid. Statcast credits him with three Outs Above Average this season, indicating he's still making plays that many center fielders cannot. Defensive Runs Saved paints a slightly less favorable picture, grading him at minus-one run overall.

The biggest culprit is his throwing arm. Buxton's arm has cost him two Defensive Runs Saved this season, the second-worst mark among major-league center fielders. Only Miami's Jakob Marsee has graded lower at -3 runs.

What's notable is that the decline isn't coming from his range. The athleticism is still there. The reads are still there. The closing speed remains above average. The arm simply isn't the weapon it used to be.

What Does This Mean for the Future?

The timing is worth monitoring because Minnesota's long-term outfield picture is beginning to take shape. Walker Jenkins is back in action at Triple-A after recovering from a shoulder injury and could make his major league debut sometime in 2026. Emmanuel Rodriguez remains sidelined with a thumb injury, but he also has significant experience in center field and possesses the athleticism to handle the position.

Neither player is pushing Buxton out of center field today. However, both represent future options should the Twins eventually decide that Buxton's best fit is in a corner outfield spot.

That's not a conversation Minnesota needs to have immediately. Buxton's speed and instincts still allow him to provide value in center. But it is becoming easier to envision a future in which preserving his health and maximizing his remaining skills mean asking him to cover a little less ground.

How Worried Should the Twins Be?

The answer is probably somewhere between "not at all" and "slightly." Buxton's arm strength decline is real. The numbers support it, opposing teams have recognized it, and the defensive metrics reflect it.

At the same time, this isn't a player whose overall defensive value has collapsed. He's still making plays in center field that few players can make. His legs remain more important than his arms, and those legs continue to carry significant defensive value.

What we're seeing is likely the first visible sign of the aging curve beginning to arrive. That's normal. It happens to every player, even the special ones. Kirby Puckett and Torii Hunter moved from center to a corner outfield spot in the later years of their career.

Father Time eventually collects his debt from everyone. For Buxton, it appears he has started by taking a few miles per hour off the radar gun in center field. The encouraging part for the Twins is that, for now, that's all he's taken.

Should the Twins be worried about Buxton’s decline in arm strength? Will 2026 be his final year in center field? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

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[Steve J]

No.  Not worried, though this looks more like a trend than anything given his high end arm was down into the mediocre territory last year too.  He's getting older, some skills are going to start to decline, some possibly by choice (maybe he's holding his own arm back over shoulder concerns?)

If his range collapsed or he found himself with a beleaguered hamstring again, I would be worried.  

[Mike Sixel]

You really need a new hobby. 

[Linus]

Was it his right shoulder that he injured a month or so ago?

Of all the things to be worried about for this franchise Bucks throwing velocity ranks, oh about 73rd. Accuracy is more important anyway. See Wallner, Matt. 

[mikelink45]

Not at all. How many teams in MLB would love to have Buxton patrolling the center.

[mnfireman]

12 minutes ago, Linus said:

Was it his right shoulder that he injured a month or so ago?

Of all the things to be worried about for this franchise Bucks throwing velocity ranks, oh about 73rd. Accuracy is more important anyway. See Wallner, Matt. 

Correct, he has injured his right (throwing) shoulder twice this season. 

I don't check everyday so I don't know when his max velocity throw was, but he has a max velocity throw of 95.9 this season....

[DJL44]

They should probably cut him

[terrydactyls]

Byron Buxton has played 11 years in CF (nearly 6600 innings) and has had 24 assists: that's just over two a year.  The average number of assists last year for players with over 700 innings in CF was 4.98 (Baseball-Reference.com).  If Buxton loses a little arm strength and his assists drop to under two a year, I can live with that.

[JBK]

Father time is undefeated

[jkcarew]

I have this mental image of a pilot in a chaotic cockpit having lost all power, ground proximity and other alarms blaring…and he’s trying to figure out the lumbar support switch in his seat.

[Blyleven2011]

1 hour ago, JBK said:

Father time is undefeated

Yep , it finally caught up to me , I no longer climb trees and I won't roof a house like I did mine last summer  , it put some aches in my knees ...

I have no concerns about buxtons play as long as hes healthy  , if hes accurate on his throw to the cut off man I'll take that plus his defense in center and his offense he generates when healthy , knock on wood   ...

Grand slam last night for Buxton,  he'll be fine for some years ...

I too think Cody Christie shouldn't quit his day job ...

[Brandon]

2 hours ago, Steve J said:

No.  Not worried, though this looks more like a trend than anything given his high end arm was down into the mediocre territory last year too.  He's getting older, some skills are going to start to decline, some possibly by choice (maybe he's holding his own arm back over shoulder concerns?)

If his range collapsed or he found himself with a beleaguered hamstring again, I would be worried.  

This

 

 

[George Dramdahl]

not worried until he starts to throw like Ben Revere

[HerbieFan]

Not even a little bit.  Worst case he'll make an unbelievable left fielder when Jenkins is ready to play CF.