Is Josh Bell Cooked, or Ready to Break Out?

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images

Josh Bell wasn't brought to Minnesota to save runs with his glove. The Twins signed the veteran switch-hitter to a one-year, $7-million contract because they believed his bat could deepen the lineup.

Through the first 65 games of the season, that investment hasn't paid off. Bell is hitting .228/.286/.367, with 7 home runs. His 80 OPS+ ranks well below league average; he sits 140th among 160 qualified hitters in OPS. For a player who spends most of his time at designated hitter and first base, those numbers are difficult to overlook.

Still, Bell's career has followed a familiar pattern. Every season seems to begin with questions about whether his production has disappeared for good, only for him to heat up as the weather does. The challenge for Minnesota is determining whether this is simply another slow start or the beginning of a permanent decline.

3 Reasons Josh Bell Might Be Cooked

1. The Plate Discipline Numbers Are Alarming
Despite his imposing 6-foot-3, 261-pound frame, Bell has never fit the profile of an all-or-nothing slugger. Throughout his career, he has generally controlled the strike zone well and avoided excessive strikeout totals.

That hasn't been the case this season. His 24.3% strikeout rate would be the second-highest mark of his career, while his 6.9% walk rate would be his lowest. The combination becomes even more concerning when looking at recent trends.

During May, Bell posted a 25-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio. June hasn't started much better, with a 10-to-1 ratio. Among the 50 months of his career in which he has accumulated at least 75 plate appearances, May 2026 produced his worst walk rate and strikeout-to-walk ratio. For a hitter whose value is tied almost entirely to offensive production, those are major warning signs.

2. Age Is No Longer On His Side
At 33 years old, Bell is no longer in the prime years of his career. Slow starts are easier to dismiss when a player is 27 or 28 and has a long runway ahead of them. When veterans begin showing declining plate discipline and diminished production, teams have to consider whether age-related decline is becoming a factor.

The Twins signed Bell expecting a bounce-back season, especially after the way he finished the 2025 campaign (see below). Instead, they're watching a veteran whose offensive indicators are trending in the wrong direction. At some point, Bell is not going to have a bounce-back after a cold start, and that might be happening this year.

3. The Defensive Value Isn't There
Players can survive offensive slumps when they contribute elsewhere. Bell doesn't have that luxury. He provides limited defensive value and has spent much of the season serving as the designated hitter. If the bat isn't producing, there isn't another aspect of his game offsetting the struggles.

That puts extra pressure on every plate appearance and makes prolonged slumps significantly harder for a contending club to tolerate. Minnesota has limited his exposure at first base, but he has still been worth -1 run at the position.

3 Reasons Josh Bell Might Be Ready to Break Out

1. He's Built a Career on Slow Starts
If there is one player who deserves the benefit of the doubt in this situation, it's Bell. Over 11 major-league seasons, he has developed a reputation for starting slowly before finding his rhythm later in the year. This doesn't show up in a huge split between first halves and second halves for his whole career, but look at the last three seasons:

• 2023: 1st Half: .701 OPS - 2nd Half: .793
• 2024: 1st Half: .644 - 2nd Half: .885
• 2025: 1st Half: .678 - 2nd Half: .842

This is, broadly speaking, what he does. No stats-savvy fan or front office will be comfortable betting on it, but the pattern here is real.

2. The Swing Data Looks OK
Bell has lost some bat speed this year, relative to last season—but last season represented a huge step forward in that regard. He's generating enough bat speed to produce consistent power, and his bat path, contact point and timing are all similar to where they were when he was mashing last summer. He's still hitting the ball hard at an above-average rate. The process is worrisome when it comes to swing decisions, but the swing itself isn't yet breaking down in an obvious way.

3. The Calendar Has Historically Been His Friend
Bell's overall career numbers improve dramatically once the season moves beyond the first two months. He owns a career .795 OPS after June 1 and has posted an OPS above .750 after June 1 in each of his nine full major-league seasons.

That's an incredibly consistent trend. While past performance doesn't guarantee future results, Bell has repeatedly demonstrated an ability to make adjustments and produce once summer arrives. Few hitters have shown such a clear distinction between their early-season and late-season performance.

The sample size is tiny, but Bell has shown some encouraging signs recently. After his homer Tuesday night, he's batting .286/.333/.571 in June, with two home runs. His slugging average this month is higher than his OPS was in May. Those numbers alone don't prove a breakout is imminent, but they represent the kind of gradual improvement that has often preceded his midseason turnarounds in previous years.

The evidence supporting both sides of the argument is compelling. Bell's declining walk rate, rising strikeout totals, and age suggest there is legitimate reason for concern. At the same time, nearly every season of his career has featured similar doubts before he eventually found his footing.

The Twins signed Bell believing his second-half adjustments from last season were real. Now they must decide how long they're willing to wait for those adjustments to show up again. If history repeats itself, Bell could be one of Minnesota's more productive hitters over the final four months of the season. If it doesn't, the Twins may be left wondering whether they mistook a temporary rebound in 2025 for evidence that there was still plenty left in the tank.

For now, the answer remains somewhere between cooked and ready to break out, but the needle is moving in the right direction.

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What has stood out about Bell so far in 2026? Is he cooked? Is he ready to break out? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

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[shimrod]

Either way the team isn't going anywhere. Josh Bells best season doesn't make the Twins a contender. 

You can rephrase the question as "Will Josh Bell be a deadline trade candidate?"

[Danchat]

I've seen this play out before, he'll have some positive regression and hit well enough to not get DFA'd, but also still not be good enough to be traded for anything other than cash considerations.

[DJL44]

They really have no choice but to keep playing him in the hopes that he heats up and a team is willing to take his backloaded contract at the trade deadline. That $1.25M buyout is a big chunk of what he is still owed.

[Sampson5]

Be cool if he got hot so they could at least get something for him at the deadline instead of just having to dfa him . His track record will afford him time before that's even a discussion we're still a while away from a dfa considering they haven't even moved him down in the lineup yet 

[Jacksson]

He was cooked even before he was signed by the Twins.  With both defensive and offensive challenged corner outfielders in the fold, who could reasonably slide into the role of DH to hide their defensive shortcomings, why in the hell would you blow $7 MM to sign a poor defensive 1B, who's "best" position is actually DH.  Poor organizational decision making. 

[thelanges5]

I liked the signing when it happened. We are now a third of the way through the season and it is clear that the Twins will not be in the playoff race. Hopefully he does well enough that we can move him for something at the deadline. He is not part of the twins future plans.

[Linus]

I don’t get the premise of “he always stinks the first two months”. I believe those games count. I never saw him play first much until this year but had read where he was a subpar defender.  Well, after seeing him play that description is very kind. He is awful at first and can’t throw at all. Falvey made many questionable signings but $7 million for this guy tops them all. 

[bean5302]

He certainly didn't start slow this year, but he cooled off quick. He's been league average at the plate for all three years prior to joining the Twins. 

For those not familiar, use a scale about like
.280-.304 Very Poor
.305-.315 Poor
.316-.335 Average
.336-.360 Great
.361-.400+ Elite

First vs. Second Half,  wOBA / xwOBA, 

2023 - .308 / .346 vs. .341 / .339
2024 - .283 / .293 vs. .383 / .349
2025 - .299 / .331 vs. .362 / .403
2026 - .290 / .301

Bell could rebound like he did in 2024, but he's been bad at the plate. It'd be unreasonable to think he'd be worth anything at the trade deadline other than salary relief. I don't know as there's much track record to support the "notorious slow start" type of label.

I think there's a high degree of likelihood the player who hasn't generated more than replacement value in the previous 3 years and is struggling big time right now is just done.

Do the Twins really HAVE to play Bell? They could just release him. He's not helping, he's unlikely to help them, and he's not going to be worth anything at the deadline. No other team in baseball signs Bell to the contract the Twins gave him. Nobody. We're not getting out from under it.

[DJL44]

13 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

He certainly didn't start slow this year, but he cooled off quick. He's been league average at the plate for all three years prior to joining the Twins. 

For those not familiar, use a scale about like
.280-.304 Very Poor
.305-.315 Poor
.316-.335 Average
.336-.360 Great
.361-.400+ Elite

First vs. Second Half,  wOBA / xwOBA, 

2023 - .308 / .346 vs. .341 / .339
2024 - .283 / .293 vs. .383 / .349
2025 - .299 / .331 vs. .362 / .403
2026 - .290 / .301

Bell could rebound like he did in 2024, but he's been bad at the plate. It'd be unreasonable to think he'd be worth anything at the trade deadline other than salary relief. I don't know as there's much track record to support the "notorious slow start" type of label.

I think there's a high degree of likelihood the player who hasn't generated more than replacement value in the previous 3 years and is struggling big time right now is just done.

Do the Twins really HAVE to play Bell? They could just release him. He's not helping, he's unlikely to help them, and he's not going to be worth anything at the deadline. No other team in baseball signs Bell to the contract the Twins gave him. Nobody. We're not getting out from under it.

He’s not really blocking anyone except Wallner.

FWIW, Bell reaches 10 years service time at game 109.

[Major League Ready]

I don't really disagree but I still would rather they gave Someone like Sabato a shot.  At least he has a small chance of being part of the future where Bell does not.  At least Sabato would be interesting.

[DJL44]

16 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

I don't really disagree but I still would rather they gave Someone like Sabato a shot.  At least he has a small chance of being part of the future where Bell does not.  At least Sabato would be interesting.

Is August and September enough time?

[Mike Sixel]

DFA him now. Call up Mendez or sabato or Fedko and see what happens. 

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, DJL44 said:

Is August and September enough time?

Why wait? You might want to cycle thru two guys. 

[KirbyDome89]

4 hours ago, DJL44 said:

They really have no choice but to keep playing him in the hopes that he heats up and a team is willing to take his backloaded contract at the trade deadline. That $1.25M buyout is a big chunk of what he is still owed.

Nobody wanted him at the deadline last year. Why is a team suddenly giving up anything for an older/worse version this season? 

Textbook sunk cost fallacy. 

[DJL44]

55 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

DFA him now. Call up Mendez or sabato or Fedko and see what happens. 

He’s hitting .277/.306/.489 over the last two weeks. You usually DFA a player during a cold streak.

[Major League Ready]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Is August and September enough time?

Better than nothing but it's an opportunity lost.  This is not a playoff team so why wait until the last two months of the year.  DFA Bell and give someone else the playing time.  Just my opinion.

[Hunter4848]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

He’s hitting .277/.306/.489 over the last two weeks. You usually DFA a player during a cold streak.

Better late then never. Should have never been with the team this long...