Twins 5, Brewers 4: Twins Out-Gas Gasser, Hold On To Salvage Series

[Hans Birkeland]

Image courtesy of Matt Krohn-Imagn Images

Box Score:
Starting Pitcher: Bailey Ober: 5 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 1 K (77 Pitches, 46 Strikes, 59.7%)
Home Runs: Ryan Jeffers (7)
Top 3 WPA: Kody Clemens (0.24), Justin Topa (0.17), Ryan Jeffers (0.17)
Win Probability Chart (Via BaseballSavant):

Injuries have decimated the Twins of late, with Byron Buxton, Trevor Larnach, Joe Ryan and Taj Bradley all missing time recently. They entered Sunday having lost two consecutive one run games against the Brewers featuring good pitching and anemic hitting with runners in scoring position.

Fortunately, the Twins were starting the streaking Bailey Ober, who pitched a "Maddux" his last time out against the Marlins. I'd go as far as to call it a Carlos Silva, since his pitch count in completing the shutout was less than 90 pitches, with the Maddux criteria having the threshold of 100. In any case, Ober has been great this year, with his change-up somehow getting even better as his fastball velocity has settled into the upper 80's at best.

Today Ober was a little floaty with his command and had to fight hard to keep the Brewers from putting up crooked numbers against him. He began the second inning by allowing a walk, double, fly out and another walk before getting the next two hitters on lineouts. 

He began the fourth by allowing a fly out, then a rocket home run to Garrett Mitchell (115.5 MPH). Joey Ortiz then rifled a double past Austin Martin in right. Again, Ober righted the ship, striking out David Hamilton and getting the electric Jackson Chourio to pop out.

Meanwhile the Twins were making lefty Robert Gasser work. Austin Martin led off the first with a walk, and with two outs Kody Clemens doubled him home. After Luke Keaschall walked, Victor Caratini was hit by a pitch, loading the bases for Royce Lewis. That is no longer as exciting as it once was, and despite making Gasser throw ten pitches to him, never seemed close to squaring anything up and ended up striking out on a high change-up. Gasser needed 40 pitches to complete the frame but was allowed to continue.

Gasser mostly held it together, his only additional blemish occurring in the third. Ryan Jeffers singled to lead off the inning, and Clemens got yet another extra base hit off a lefty, launching just over the head of Chourio in left. Chourio struggled to collect it and the relay from shortstop Joey Ortiz was pretty terrible, allowing both Jeffers and Clemens to score.

The fifth began with consecutive great defensive plays from Lewis and Martin. Good thing, too, because Christian Yelich followed with a moonshot off an Ober change-up to tie the game at three.

Although that would be Ober's last inning, he left in line for the win thanks to the continued heroics of Jeffers. The catcher/DH got all of a Grant Anderson sweeper and hit it 389 feet to retake the lead.

The teams traded zeroes for a few innings before Jake Bauers led off the eighth inning with a double off of Taylor Rogers. After retiring Sal Frelick without Bauers advancing, Justin Topa was brought in, and despite being Justin Topa, got a couple of grounders to escape the jam.

The Brewers would rue that missed opportunity to tie the game. Keaschall led off the bottom of the eighth with a fly ball to deep center that Chourio appeared to catch up to, but couldn't close his glove on it, allowing Keaschall to reach third with a leadoff triple. Caratini then popped a ball up to shallow left, but Keaschall challenged the arm of Bauers and scored easily, stretching the lead to two.

That was key, because Luis Garcia and his 9.00 ERA would come on to close the game. He got Chourio to start the frame, but walked Turang and allowed an infield hit to Contreras. He got Yelich to swing through three consecutive pitches for the second out, but the hot-hitting Bauers rifled a single past Clemens at first to cut the lead to one. Garcia then got ahead of Frelick 0-2 before retiring him on a pop-up to the catcher Caratini.

 

Things I'm Tracking:

-Clemens briefly got his OPS over .800 after his second double of the game. Considering his slow start and unimpressive track record prior to last year's serviceable contributions, it was fair to question if the 30 year-old would revert to being Denny Hocking with late career Joey Gallo swing outcomes rather than reaching his upside of, I don't know, David Murphy? He's been a good find, and if he keeps his OPS over .750 he might even have some trade value this summer.

-I was thinking Jeffers might secure a three year, 45M sort of contract this offseason, and not from the Twins. Now it's looking more like 75-80M over four years and it still won't be from the Twins. Hopefully he stays healthy and secures said bag.

-Lewis couldn't lay off the high fastball today and struck out three times. If he doesn't figure it out over the summer he might not be offered a contract this offseason. If you think Lewis gives weird quotes now, imagine what he would say in that scenario.

-I see the vision with Andrew Morris. He got Anthony Banda out of a jam in the sixth by retiring Chourio on a weak chopper, than buzz-sawed through Brice Turang and William Contreras in the seventh before giving way to Taylor Rogers. He threw mainly fastballs, hit 97 and located well.

What’s Next:
The Twins welcome the Houston Astros to Target Field for a three game set. Tatsuya Imai (1-1, 9.24 ERA) will pitch the opener Monday against a pitcher-yet-to-be-determined in what was Simeon Woods Richardson's spot. The Astros have struggled this year as their dynastic roster continues to wither under the pressures of aging and injuries.

Postgame Interviews:

Coming soon

Bullpen Usage Chart:

	WED	THU	FRI	SAT	SUN	TOT
Topa	35	0	0	0	11	46
Rojas	0	0	41	0	0	41
Garcia	18	0	0	0	22	40
Morris	0	0	24	0	12	36
Rogers	0	0	23	0	8	31
Adams	29	0	0	0	0	29
Orze	0	0	0	26	0	26
Banda	0	0	8	0	18	26
Gómez	0	0	7	11	0	18

 

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[jmlease1]

Morris is starting to look like he could be a high-octane late inning reliever. Love to see it. Need to find another one like him this season but it's a start. 

Glad the Twins got at least one out of this series; frankly would have felt a little unfair if they'd gotten swept. And certainly good to see the offense be less tepid. Clemens is one one of his patented hot streaks, so let's ride it for as long as it lasts. 

Keaschall still needs to keep it going, but at least he's starting to trend in the right direction. Royce on the other hand just continues to struggle. The early K to let Gasser off the hook seemed inevitable; it was good to see him fighting off pitches, but did anyone feel like he was going to come through there? It's getting sad. Think he goes down by June.

Not a great Ober start, but he did enough. He gave them a chance, which is just fine.

[RpR]

[The Great Hambino]

I was at the game but spent most of it trying to shepherd a small battalion of toddlers to the finish line without enduring any meltdowns (mostly a success!), so I wasn't able to pay attention the way I'd normally like, but it sure seemed like there were a lot of loud, warning-track outs that allowed Ober to get by

[karcherd]

So Seattle just called up Colt Emerson, .255 BA and .816 OPS at 20 years old, rated as #6 overall prospect.  The Twins have Culpepper sitting over in St. Paul with a .253 BA .815 OPS at 23 years old rated as #39 prospect.  Yes I know stats don't tell the whole story.  But they have an obvious need, there is no reason not to take the chance to bring him up.  Now is not the time to play if safe.

[Blyleven2011]

I'm not sure salvaged is the right word for the series  ...

We were hoodwinked by the umpires on Friday night that resulted in a loss , a game the twins should of won  ...

Didn't catch much of the game today as graduations are common for awhile  ...

Nice to see the twins win and not manage to get swept  , box score shows 6 hits and 5 runs  , just enough but another 1 run game against Milwaukee that turned out a win for the twins ...

Bullpen did its job through 8 inning and our ancient 39 year old veteran managed to keep us on the edge of our seats , I did see the ninth inning , Garcia with the save ( he is one of a few candidates to be DFA'd and nobodywould miss him )...

Haven't heard any thing on the opt out deadline Bowman has today  , he's earned the chance to get promoted , should be a ticket up from Garcia  ...

[Vanimal46]

9 minutes ago, The Great Hambino said:

I was at the game but spent most of it trying to shepherd a small battalion of toddlers to the finish line without enduring any meltdowns (mostly a success!), so I wasn't able to pay attention the way I'd normally like, but it sure seemed like there were a lot of loud, warning-track outs that allowed Ober to get by

Did the kiddos run the bases? Also, free ice cream to a small battalion of toddlers is worth missing an inning or 2 

[The Great Hambino]

1 minute ago, Vanimal46 said:

Did the kiddos run the bases? Also, free ice cream to a small battalion of toddlers is worth missing an inning or 2 

They were all under four so no baserunning yet!

Dad definitely got an extra beer or two in "looking" for the free ice cream

[AceWrigley]

14 minutes ago, The Great Hambino said:

They were all under four so no baserunning yet!

Dad definitely got an extra beer or two in "looking" for the free ice cream

Finder's fee.

[USAFChief]

37 minutes ago, The Great Hambino said:

They were all under four so no baserunning yet!

Dad definitely got an extra beer or two in "looking" for the free ice cream

There should also be a dad tax on the ice  cream. 

[jkcarew]

Nice win. Milwaukee is solid. Good break to miss Misiorowski, the lads have enough trouble scoring as it is.

[arby58]

1 hour ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Haven't heard any thing on the opt out deadline Bowman has today  , he's earned the chance to get promoted , should be a ticket up from Garcia  ...

Bowman opted out - don't blame him. Garcia gave up an ER, 2 hits, walked a batter, has an ERA of 9.00 and a WHIP close to 2. It's bizarre that they let Bowman go and kept Garcia.

[Blyleven2011]

Just now, arby58 said:

Bowman opted out - don't blame him. Garcia gave up an ER, 2 hits, walked a batter, has an ERA of 9.00 and a WHIP close to 2. It's bizarre that they let Bowman go and kept Garcia.

I read in trade rumors that the twins have until tuesday or Wednesday , if another team claims him , the twins can either activate him or let him walk  ...

[Sjoski]

Meanwhile, yesterday in Detroit, the Blue Jays  win 2-1 in extra innings.

They don't turn to a high-priced closer or a panic-button waiver claim. They call on Varland. And what does he do? He goes out there for two masterful, scoreless innings of relief. He gives up a couple of hits, but he strikes out two, locks the Tigers completely down, earns the Win in a 2-1 thriller, and lowers his season ERA to an absolutely jaw-dropping 0.38.

 

"Think about that for a second, baseball fans. A point-zero-eight ERA over twenty-two appearances. Meanwhile, back here in Minnesota, the bullpen doors open up every night like a revolving door at a department store, letting in whatever warm body happens to be available.

[soyouresayingtheresachance]

Ober pulled at 77 pitches 🤦‍♂️ Decent start though. 

Lewis looks lost at the plate. 

Man Clemens is looking good right now. I sure hope it continues. 

With this many days off, I'm surprised Buck wasn't put on the IL. Must be beat up pretty good. 

With Taj returning soon, is the writing on the wall for Sim? A Move to the pen or ...? No way Prielipp should be sent down and Zebby definitely earned another start. 

Good to see Keaschall trending in the right direction. 

Bell has been a big disappointment so far and I'd really like to see him released or traded. Continue clearing out the logjam of no defense players. 

[DJL44]

I don’t know why a pitcher would throw Royce Lewis a strike right now. His zone recognition is non-existent.

[knothole61]

7 hours ago, The Great Hambino said:

They were all under four so no baserunning yet!

Dad definitely got an extra beer or two in "looking" for the free ice cream

Under four and more than one, at a ballgame? Man, you deserve a medal. Ever try teaching tennis to young kids? That may be a greater struggle, but not by much. I'm sure that they had a good time, and that's what counts. 

[knothole61]

4 hours ago, soyouresayingtheresachance said:

Ober pulled at 77 pitches 🤦‍♂️ Decent start though. 

Lewis looks lost at the plate. 

Man Clemens is looking good right now. I sure hope it continues. 

With this many days off, I'm surprised Buck wasn't put on the IL. Must be beat up pretty good. 

With Taj returning soon, is the writing on the wall for Sim? A Move to the pen or ...? No way Prielipp should be sent down and Zebby definitely earned another start. 

Good to see Keaschall trending in the right direction. 

Bell has been a big disappointment so far and I'd really like to see him released or traded. Continue clearing out the logjam of no defense players. 

I agree about Bell, but man does he look the part of a slugger! Regarding Clemens, he's very good against lefties for the most part, if I'm not mistaken--but righties, not so much. I'd keep him around though. He seems to play hard and is somewhat versatile. Finally, I think that Keaschall will come around and get past his sophomore slump rather quickly. I have great faith in that kid--he burns to succeed.   

[Peter]

Could’ve easily swept Milwaukee but all the games were one run exciting baseball!!! This was big win as it even homestand to 3-3!!! Clemens was huge as was Jeffers also do forget about one handed play by Royce and catch by Martin in 5th before home run! That would’ve been 3 run home run had not for both those plays! Also love our closers!!! Garcia is clutch!!! 

[jmlease1]

9 hours ago, soyouresayingtheresachance said:

Ober pulled at 77 pitches 🤦‍♂️ Decent start though. 

Did you really want Ober going back out for one more? He was dancing through the raindrops, not dominating. Happy he limited the damage, but who cares what his pitch count was? The goal is to win the game, not have the starter throw 100 pitches. Ober was getting hit pretty hard, be happy he fought through 5.

[David HK]

For God's sake, will somebody in this moribund front office pick up a phone, call Michael Kopech, offer him the closer role, and sign a damn check? He'll be a Yankee in a week or two if we don't. This closer-by-committee of the lame, the halt, and the criminally incompetent is an insult to baseball 

[jorgenswest]

13 hours ago, arby58 said:

Bowman opted out - don't blame him. Garcia gave up an ER, 2 hits, walked a batter, has an ERA of 9.00 and a WHIP close to 2. It's bizarre that they let Bowman go and kept Garcia.

They have some time (Wednesday?) to make a decision on Bowman

I wouldn’t add him because I fear they stick with him for a while if they make that commitment. Laweryson will soon return. Bradley will need a spot. Sands is early June. I am keeping Woods Richardson over Bowman. Two pitchers will likely need to be moved by the end of the week. I would pick from Garcia, Topa and Banda.

[JD-TWINS]

15 hours ago, karcherd said:

So Seattle just called up Colt Emerson, .255 BA and .816 OPS at 20 years old, rated as #6 overall prospect.  The Twins have Culpepper sitting over in St. Paul with a .253 BA .815 OPS at 23 years old rated as #39 prospect.  Yes I know stats don't tell the whole story.  But they have an obvious need, there is no reason not to take the chance to bring him up.  Now is not the time to play if safe.

To me, .253 BA in what I keep reading is a “hitter friendly” level (don’t really understand why this is the case) isn’t going to project well at MLB level.

Arcia can be a 45 day bridge to Culpepper OR Royce’s return around July 1. Arcia is hitting 80+ points higher than Culpepper this point.

Jenkins was around #6 at a young age - still young but still not ready.