Remember When the Twins Had Too Much Starting Pitching?

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images

During the offseason, there was constant discussion about the Twins having too much starting pitching depth. Minnesota looked like a team with eight legitimate rotation options before even mentioning some of the team's top starters in the upper minors, who were viewed more as a long-term development projects than an immediate contributors.

At the time, it felt reasonable to wonder whether the Twins should trade from that depth. Injuries happen, but few teams carry that many realistic starting options into a season. A few months later, that conversation feels almost impossible to believe.

What once looked like one of the deepest pitching staffs in baseball has quickly unraveled. One starter is out for the season following Tommy John surgery. Another recently landed on the injured list after pitching like the staff ace. Multiple depth options have battled significant arm injuries, while another has struggled badly enough that a move to the bullpen may be necessary. Suddenly, the Twins are no longer talking about a pitching surplus. They are simply trying to piece together enough healthy innings to survive.

Looking back at the preseason expectations compared to the current reality shows just how quickly pitching depth can disappear.

Pablo Lopez
Preseason Expectation: Ace of the staff. Helping the Twins stay on the fringes of contention.
Current Reality: Lopez is out for the season following Tommy John surgery. Losing the team’s most dependable starter completely changed the outlook of the rotation and forced everyone else into bigger roles.

Joe Ryan
Preseason Expectation: Build off his first All-Star season and continue establishing himself as one of the American League’s best pitchers.
Current Reality: Ryan briefly terrified the organization after leaving last Sunday’s start following just nine pitches because of elbow soreness. Fortunately, he returned for last night's outing without needing an injured list stint. At this point, simply having Ryan healthy feels critical to keeping the rotation together.

Bailey Ober
Preseason Expectation: There was optimism that a healthy offseason could help Ober regain some of the velocity he lost last year.
Current Reality: The velocity still has not returned, with his fastball averaging just 88.6 mph. However, Ober has adapted by leaning more heavily on his changeup and sequencing effectively enough to remain productive.

Taj Bradley
Preseason Expectation: The Twins spent the offseason trying to determine which version of Bradley they acquired from Tampa Bay at last year’s trade deadline. His inconsistency with the Rays made it difficult to project his role.
Current Reality: Bradley looked like the team’s ace before landing on the injured list with right pectoral muscle inflammation. With the state of the rotation, the Twins desperately need him back and pitching well as quickly as possible.

Simeon Woods Richardson
Preseason Expectation: Woods Richardson had developed a reputation as one of the organization’s steadier pitching options and looked like a reliable back-end starter.
Current Reality: He has been one of baseball’s least effective starters with a 64 ERA+ while allowing an MLB-leading 30 earned runs. Since he is out of minor league options, if the Twins want to reset him, it would need to be in the bullpen.

Mick Abel
Preseason Expectation: One of the key pieces acquired at last year’s trade deadline, Abel entered the spring with expectations that he could eventually force his way into the major league rotation.
Current Reality: Abel impressed early before right elbow inflammation landed him on the injured list. A setback later required a cortisone shot, adding even more uncertainty to his timeline.

David Festa
Preseason Expectation: Festa was expected to fight for a rotation spot this spring. Even if he began the season at Triple-A, he remained one of the first starters called upon when the Twins needed reinforcements.
Current Reality: Festa has spent the entire season on the injured list due to a shoulder injury that has resulted in multiple setbacks. At this point, if he returns this year, it may only be as a reliever.

Zebby Matthews
Preseason Expectation: Matthews gave the Twins another valuable layer of Triple-A depth.
Current Reality: He struggled early in Triple-A but has shown recent improvement. Given Minnesota’s current situation, Matthews may soon become the next starter called upon.

Connor Prielipp
Preseason Expectation: Prielipp entered the year as the organization’s top pitching prospect; he wasn't supposed to be one of the eight major league-ready starters. There was speculation (both internally and externally) about whether his long-term future belonged in the bullpen.
Current Reality: He arrived in the majors earlier than expected when Abel was injured and, with Bradley sidelined, will likely continue to receive every opportunity to establish himself in the rotation.

The Twins entered the season believing they had enough starting pitching depth to withstand almost anything. Instead, they have learned the same lesson every organization eventually learns. There is never such a thing as too much pitching.

What once looked like an organizational strength has quickly become one of the biggest reasons this season feels so fragile. Injuries, setbacks, and inconsistency have thinned out a group that once seemed overflowing with options. Now, every healthy start feels important, every injury update carries added weight, and young pitchers are being asked to contribute earlier than expected.

Back in March, the conversation centered around whether the Twins could afford to trade from their pitching depth. By May, that depth is already gone.

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What stands out about the preseason projections and current reality? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

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[theBOMisthebomb]

Yes, injuries and underperforming are like the death and taxes guarantee of MLB starting rotations. 

[thelanges5]

Too many names to list, but we’ve averaged 8 to 9 starting pitchers each season for the past four. 

[Hubie29]

Yes. 1965

[IndianaTwin]

No team has ever had too much starting pitching. 

I prefer to view it as, "When the inevitable happened, the Twins have still been able to pivot to Prielipp and haven't even gotten to Matthews and others yet."

Previous years brought us Chi Chi Gonzalez and the husk of Dallas Keuchel.  

[tony&rodney]

The dream is to have 5-6 starting pitchers last through the 162 game slog.

The reality is that teams will almost all use a dozen starting pitchers. 

You left off a couple of guys who have already worn the Twins uniform, Andrew Morris and Kendry Rojas. They were not really expected to be needed until later in the year or many saw them as relief pitchers (similar to Connor Prielipp) but they are and will be in the picture.

Pitching is hard on the elbow and shoulder (with a side note to include pectoral muscles). 

Almost every team suffers from the same fate - will the starting pitching hold up.

[Mike Sixel]

This team has more than many other teams. Trading Ryan was never about this year...... Just bad luck that the good pitchers are missing this much time. 

[Patzky]

2 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

This team has more than many other teams. Trading Ryan was never about this year...... Just bad luck that the good pitchers are missing this much time. 

To paraphrase the article title, 'And it's a damn good thing we did!'

[mikelink45]

It is the new max effort - 100 mph requirement that I see as part of the problem.  But we are not the only team with that problem.  

Quote

With six starting pitchers on IL, what will Tigers' decimated MLB rotation look like? | Sporting News

https://www.bing.com/videos/riverview/relatedvideo?q=major+league+pitchers+on+injury+list&mid=E35A160C87302FCADC13E35A160C87302FCADC13&churl=https%3a%2f%2fwww.youtube.com%2fchannel%2fUCdNunVgO9a5AVfu4pdCgNxQ&FORM=VIRE

And then there are the Astros -

Quote

https://www.mlb.com/news/astros-injuries-and-roster-moves?msockid=2eb58d434ca36ce00c08988e4df56de7 

It is still early and to have Skubal, Fried, Cole, Rodon, Lopez, Ragans and so many more missing.

[Nshore]

It's deceiving when you talk about "starting pitching depth" and 6 of the names on the list have never been effective starting pitchers over the course of a full ML season.  It was a mirage.

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, Hubie29 said:

35 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

It is the new max effort - 100 mph requirement that I see as part of the problem.  But we are not the only team with that problem.  

https://www.bing.com/videos/riverview/relatedvideo?q=major+league+pitchers+on+injury+list&mid=E35A160C87302FCADC13E35A160C87302FCADC13&churl=https%3a%2f%2fwww.youtube.com%2fchannel%2fUCdNunVgO9a5AVfu4pdCgNxQ&FORM=VIRE

And then there are the Astros -

It is still early and to have Skubal, Fried, Cole, Rodon, Lopez, Ragans and so many more missing.

 

I blame Falvey.  I also blame the "bomba" philosophy  on this.  

Martin gonna be Babe Ruth?  How about what he is OBP.  Guys on base score.  Strike 3 doesnt.

  

[Mike Sixel]

11 minutes ago, Nshore said:

It's deceiving when you talk about "starting pitching depth" and 6 of the names on the list have never been effective starting pitchers over the course of a full ML season.  It was a mirage.

What do you think minor league depth is? How many pitchers would you expect any team to have that are proven MLB pitchers?

[Nshore]

1 minute ago, Mike Sixel said:

What do you think minor league depth is? How many pitchers would you expect any team to have that are proven MLB pitchers?

"Depth" is pretty meaningless if the next man up on the mound can't do the job - unless you're looking to increase your depth in the standings.  The phrase that applies to mutual funds applies to Minor League records- "Past performance is not an indicator of future (Major League) returns".  How many proven pitchers?  As many as humanly possible.

[Parfigliano]

15 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

What do you think minor league depth is? How many pitchers would you expect any team to have that are proven MLB pitchers?

They are agent driven soft.

Blyleven averaged 210+IP  over 20 years

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, Parfigliano said:

They are agent driven soft.

Blyleven averaged 210+IP  over 20 years

Exceptions prove nothing. 

[Mike Sixel]

39 minutes ago, Nshore said:

"Depth" is pretty meaningless if the next man up on the mound can't do the job - unless you're looking to increase your depth in the standings.  The phrase that applies to mutual funds applies to Minor League records- "Past performance is not an indicator of future (Major League) returns".  How many proven pitchers?  As many as humanly possible.

Given that zero teams have eight good starters, I'd guess humanly possible is less than that.