Jesús Luzardo, José Berrios, and the Twins' Chances of Locking Up Joe Ryan

[Cody Christie]

Joe Ryan has become the most important pitcher in the Minnesota Twins organization. He's coming off the best season of his career, earning an All-Star selection while anchoring Minnesota’s rotation. His command, ability to miss bats, and consistency have made him one of the most reliable starters on the roster.

With Ryan under team control through the end of the 2027 season, the team has a modicum of time to decide how to handle his future. While this means Minnesota doesn't have to rush into an extension, recent league activity suggests there may be a window to get creative.

One deal in particular stands out as a potential template. Earlier this week, the Philadelphia Phillies and left-hander Jesús Luzardo agreed to a contract extension that could guide teams hoping to lock up frontline starters before free agency. Luzardo, originally set to reach free agency after the 2026 season, will now have five guaranteed years beginning in 2027, worth $135 million.

The deal also includes a $32.5-million club option that could increase based on performance. Luzardo can boost that option by $2 million with each top-five finish in Cy Young voting, potentially raising the value as high as $42.5 million. The contract also contains a $1-million assignment bonus each time he is traded, until he reaches 10 and 5 rights at the end of the 2029 season.

Luzardo was already set to earn $11 million in 2026, after avoiding arbitration with the Phillies earlier this offseason. Had he played out the season and reached free agency at age 29, he likely would have been in line for a massive payday. Instead, he chose the security of locking in a long-term deal now. Over the next six years, including his 2026 salary, Luzardo is positioned to make $146 million.

The circumstances around the deal are interesting, when compared to Ryan’s situation. Ryan is actually about three months older than Luzardo, and is similarly in the late stages of team control. Like Luzardo, he profiles as a reliable starter who has demonstrated the ability to pitch near the top of a rotation when healthy. If Ryan continues pitching at an All-Star level, his value will only increase as he moves closer to free agency.

For the Twins, this situation might feel familiar. In recent Twins history, the Derek Falvey-led front office once had a similar opportunity with José Berríos. The Twins developed Berríos into one of the better starters in the American League and had multiple chances to explore a long-term extension. Ultimately, the two sides never got close to a deal.

Instead, Minnesota traded Berríos to the Toronto Blue Jays at the 2021 trade deadline in exchange for Simeon Woods Richardson and Austin Martin. Both players remain part of the organization and figure to be part of the Twins’ plans for the 2026 season. Woods Richardson has exceeded expectations in recent years and looks like a steady mid-rotation starter who can give Minnesota quality innings.

Martin’s path has been less straightforward. Once considered one of baseball’s elite prospects, his stock has dipped since arriving in the Twins organization. He still has tools that intrigue evaluators, but he now sits among a group of post hype prospects for whom the 2026 season could prove critical.

From a broader perspective, the Berríos situation highlights the balancing act teams face with pitchers approaching free agency. Players who sign extensions a year or two before hitting the market often sacrifice some potential upside in exchange for long-term security. The numbers behind these deals provide some context. Dating back to 2017, the largest extension for a pitcher with between five and six years of service time was the seven-year, $131-million deal Berríos signed with Toronto.

Like Luzardo, Berríos was heading into his age-28 season and would have reached free agency before turning 29. He also posted numbers that consistently hovered around a 3.50 ERA while offering exceptional durability. Berríos signed his extension before settling on a salary for his final arbitration season. When factoring in the $11 million Luzardo will earn in 2026, the Phillies left-hander is now set to make $146 million across the next six years.

Deals like that offer a glimpse into what a potential Ryan extension might look like if the Twins decide to explore it. Ryan has established himself as one of the club’s most valuable pitchers and a foundational piece of the rotation. If he continues to perform at an All-Star level, his price will only climb as he gets closer to free agency.

The Twins have time on their side, but recent extensions around the league suggest an opportunity to act early. Minnesota’s owner, Tom Pohlad, has spoken openly about investing in the roster, and with the team interested in pitchers like Framber Valdez, locking up Ryan now would require a significant investment. However, it could provide long-term stability for a rotation that will need it in the coming years.

Minnesota’s previous experience with Berríos presents a dilemma: should they act now to lock up Joe Ryan and secure long-term stability in their rotation, or risk repeating the uncertainty that came from not extending Berríos? The main takeaway is that extending Ryan early could provide the Twins with organizational security and help avoid a repeat of past challenges.

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Should the Twins extend Ryan with a similar deal to Luzardo? Did the Berrios deal work out for Minnesota? Leave a comment and start the discussion. 

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[twinstalker]

I think we live in different worlds.  Foremost, I sincerely doubt Joe Ryan wants to be a Twin for any longer than he has to.  Second, do you think he'll accept beads and trinkets?

[nicksaviking]

I just think the track record for non-HOF pitchers in their 30's isn't that good. You'd be paying 30M+ per year for a pitcher past his peak.

[miller761]

See what happens when we get to July. That will make the front office decision for them.

[Linus]

41 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I just think the track record for non-HOF pitchers in their 30's isn't that good. You'd be paying 30M+ per year for a pitcher past his peak.

I agree with this. This is not a team that should be paying top dollar for pitchers or players in their 30s. Especially since starting pitcher seems to be an area of relative strength

[Rufus]

How is the Blue Jays contract with Berrios working out?  They moved him to the bull pen last season and signed 2 starters over the winter.  Ryan still needs to put a complete season together to prove his worth if he wants the big bucks

[IndianaTwin]

Ryan is actually 15 months older than Luzardo, not three as in the OP.

Luzardo was one year from reaching free agency at 30. Ryan is two years from reaching free agency at 31. That's two strikes against an extension for Ryan in comparison to Luzardo.

 

 

 

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, Rufus said:

How is the Blue Jays contract with Berrios working out?  They moved him to the bull pen last season and signed 2 starters over the winter.  Ryan still needs to put a complete season together to prove his worth if he wants the big bucks

Last I checked, Toronto had about a .600 winning percentage when Berrios started the game. Berrios was injured last year and he still started 30 games. Berrios with Toronto has been similar to Pablo Lopez with Minnesota in terms of going out there and giving his team a good shot to win the game. Not an ace, but Berrios isn't earning ace money, either.

5.0 IP, 3.99 ERA or less.
80/138 = 58% Berrios - 6/12 ('21), 17/32 ('22), 20/32 ('23), 21/32 ('24), 16/30 ('25)
48/78 = 62% Lopez - 19/32 ('23), 19/32 ('24), 10/14 ('25)

87/133 = 65% Valdez - 7/12 ('21), 21/31 ('22), 21/31 ('23), 18/28 ('24), 20/31 ('25)
63/126 = 50% Nola - 4/12 ('21), 18/32 ('22), 15/32 ('23), 20/33 ('24), 6/17 ('25)

Berrios doesn't get much love from WAR, but he goes out there and pitches a ton of innings and usually leaves the game with his team in a good position to win. Cutting at the last 12 games of 2021 (same as Berrios in Toronto), compared to Framber Valdez 3-5yrs at $115-180MM or Aaron Nola 7yrs $172MM, Berrios' 7yr $131MM extension for Toronto is pretty reasonable.

[bean5302]

There have only been about 47 articles about extending Joe Ryan.

He's about to get a LOT more expensive. We've seen the free agency comparison clause for Arb 3 players now with Tarik Skubal this past season. Joe Ryan is going to get close to $20MM in Arb 3 next year using the current CBA model. There's far, far less incentive for him to take a discount now.

Same issue as Lopez. Durability concerns, controlled through age 31 already, The Twins don't have a big budget and Ryan isn't really pitcher you want leading a playoff rotation, though he certainly looked better last year than Lopez.

That said, a team is likely going to give him $125-$150MMish at $25MM/yr. 

[Blyleven2011]

How loyal is Ryan to this organization that gave him his first opportunity in the show  , he has worked hard to get where he is at , some work through our coaches but he has also gone elsewhere for a different voice and advise ...

Ryan isn't going to sign a team friendly extension with the twins , there is more money in free agency  , it's a gamble with 2 years remaining of team control plus the qualifying offer ...

I see Ryan as a gambler and going to free agency turning down a qualifying offer  ...

CBA could twist things around or this seasons deadline could change it as well  ...

[dxpavelka]

3 hours ago, Linus said:

I agree with this. This is not a team that should be paying top dollar for pitchers or players in their 30s. Especially since starting pitcher seems to be an area of relative strength

Is it?  Really?

 

[mikelink45]

9 hours ago, Rufus said:

How is the Blue Jays contract with Berrios working out?  They moved him to the bull pen last season and signed 2 starters over the winter.  Ryan still needs to put a complete season together to prove his worth if he wants the big bucks

Berrios 10 WAR with Twins in six seasons, 6.9 WAR in five seasons with Toronto

55-43 4.08 era Twins, 53 - 39 4.09 Jays. Richardson 12 - 10 4.21 

 

[SteveLV]

Are we seriously discussing the possibility of this franchise dropping major coin on Ryan and extending him? The odds of this are less than 10% IMO.

1) He wants more money than the Twins are willing to pay;

2) He may get hurt (God forbid);

3) He wants to test FA;

4) He is likely to get traded before he hits FA.

5) He wants to play for a better team.

Probably other factors, too, but that seems sufficient to make an extension a remote possibility. I will believe it when I see it.  New, aggressive ownership only chance of this happening.

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Berrios 10 WAR with Twins in six seasons, 6.9 WAR in five seasons with Toronto

55-43 4.08 era Twins, 53 - 39 4.09 Jays. Richardson 12 - 10 4.21 

 

WAR is a junk stat for Berrios. Not sure how BBref is calculating their WAR anymore, but Berrios seems to be broken. He's given Toronto 5+ innings and an ERA of 3.99 or lower in 60% of his starts since he's been there. Similar to Pablo Lopez's time with the Twins.

[old nurse]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

WAR is a junk stat for Berrios. Not sure how BBref is calculating their WAR anymore, but Berrios seems to be broken. He's given Toronto 5+ innings and an ERA of 3.99 or lower in 60% of his starts since he's been there. Similar to Pablo Lopez's time with the Twins.

When you call out something as a junk stat, you shouldn’t be posting what somebody does in 60% of their games  and ignore the other 40%

[Chad93]

Let me ask this would you want to sign with the Minnesota Twins? If you had lot's of options and care about winning you have your answer

[LambchoP]

At least we had Ryan in his peak. I think when we're fighting CWS for last place at the trade deadline the conversation should be about what kind of return can we get for Ryan. Not to mention Jeffers and maybe even Buxton.