The Twins’ Identity Is Shifting, And It Starts on the Bases

[Sam Caulder]

Image courtesy of Raymond Carlin III-Imagn Images

For years, the Minnesota Twins have largely played a station-to-station brand of baseball. They’ve relied on power, damage in the gaps, and waiting for the big swing. The Twins have never really built their game around stealing bases; it’s always been more of an afterthought.

That could change in 2026.

With Derek Shelton stepping in as manager, there’s real reason to believe the Twins are going to force the issue more on the basepaths. Shelton has a reputation for being more aggressive than most managers, and he hasn’t exactly hidden his intentions for the upcoming season.

“I think the first thing is, I’m going to build off what happened in September,” Shelton told reporters in the early days of camp. “I really like what happened in September. Ultra-aggressive on the bases. Started to push the envelope a little bit. I think we have to continue on that. That’s proven to be good.”

That’s a very clear directive: continue what worked, and put pressure on opponents. So, who can you expect to be aggressive on the basepaths this year?

There are a couple of very safe bets to start with, beginning with Byron Buxton.

We’ve known about Buxton’s speed for over a decade. Even as injuries have forced adjustments to his game, the speed has never disappeared. Last season, he stole 24 bases without being thrown out once. That’s elite efficiency, and efficiency is what earns a consistent green light.

If Buxton is healthy, he’s going to run. It’s that simple. And hitting near the top of the lineup means more chances to turn a walk or single into immediate scoring position. Shelton’s philosophy, paired with Buxton’s track record, feels like a natural match.

Then there’s Luke Keaschall, who might have the most upside in this entire conversation.

Keaschall stole 14 bases in 49 MLB games last season. He added 11 more in just 28 games at Triple-A before his call-up. The speed translated instantly, but more importantly, the aggressiveness did too. He wasn’t waiting around to see how the league would adjust; he was forcing the issue.

Here’s what really stands out: Keaschall has played exactly 162 minor league games in his pro career. In those 162 games, he stole 45 bases on 53 attempts. That’s an 85% success rate over what amounts to a full season. You don’t have to project anything – he’s already shown he can maintain that pace over time.

The Twins haven’t had a player steal 40 bases in a season since Ben Revere did it in 2012. Keaschall is the type of player who could end that drought. If he and Buxton are batting one-two, expect movement, and expect action. That alone changes how opposing pitchers operate from the first inning on.

The potential uptick doesn’t stop there, though. The next name, however, comes with a major caveat: Royce Lewis.

Lewis has never been a high-volume base stealer in the majors. From 2022 through 2024, he stole just six total bases. Then, seemingly out of nowhere, he swiped nine just in the month of September.

For his career, he’s 18-for-21 in stolen base attempts. That tells you he’s capable. The instincts are there, and his athleticism is obvious. The question isn’t whether he can run, it’s whether he’ll be healthy enough to attempt it consistently.

That’ll be the tricky part. Staying in the lineup doesn’t automatically mean he’s physically able to explode out of a lead and slide aggressively into second. If he’s fully healthy, Shelton could absolutely encourage more attempts. But that hinges on durability.

Another intriguing piece is Austin Martin.

Martin isn’t likely to be an everyday player, and is not even a lock for the Opening Day roster, but he’s one of the better pure athletes in the team's mix. He stole 11 bases in 50 MLB games last year. Earlier in his minor league career, he swiped 35 bases in 2022, followed by 19 in 2023 and 15 in 2024 before totaling 14 between the minors and majors last season.

The attempts have dipped, which likely reflects role more than ability. If he’s used as a platoon option against lefties or as a late-game pinch-runner, Shelton could weaponize him situationally. That’s where aggression can show up in smaller, but meaningful, bursts.

And then there’s the pipeline.

Emmanuel Rodriguez stole 10 bases in 65 games last season and could see time in the majors this year. Walker Jenkins has the athleticism to contribute on the bases when he arrives. Kaelen Culpepper stole 25 bases on 29 attempts in the minors last season.

The larger point is this: the roster will have some speed. It’s just a matter of philosophy.

The Twins haven’t been a high-volume stolen base team in recent years. Even when they’ve had individual speed threats, the overall approach has leaned conservative. That’s not necessarily wrong. But in today’s MLB environment, with rules that favor runners and limit pickoff attempts, being selectively aggressive can create a tangible edge.

Encourage Buxton and Keaschall to run at the top. Mix in opportunistic aggression from Lewis when healthy. Use Martin strategically. Sprinkle in contributions from Rodriguez, Jenkins, or Culpepper as the season unfolds.

It doesn’t require the Twins to suddenly lead the league in stolen base attempts, as they did after the deadline last year. It just requires them to make pitchers uncomfortable and defenses rushed.

This feels like the year that could change. Not because the Twins are trying to become the fastest team in baseball, but because the manager and the personnel finally align with a more aggressive style.

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[Jack207]

Would love to see more base stealing along with moving runners over. Also better at bats

with men on second or third with less than 2 outs. Last year was very frustrating not scoring with runners in scoring position with 0 or 1 out. 

[Eris]

The rule changes in 2023 (bigger bases, pitch clock, limit on the number of pick off attempts) led to an upsurge in stolen bases. It is about time the Twins hop on the trend. Limiting the effort is the Twins ranked near the bottom in team speed last year. In terms of speed they are adding a full season of Martin and subtracting Willie Castro and Harrison Bader.  Martin has not been a particularly effective base stealer in his career (18 of 25 for the past 2 seasons). 

[Jack Pine]

it's either that or waiting for wallner to hit one with someone on base.

[DJL44]

They are probably still a bottom third team in stolen bases but they shouldn’t be dead last again.

[killertwinfan]

Wow, great!  Weren’t we like 8-18 in Sept?  I don’t blame Shelton for trying to create some excitement but the bottom line is that the product on the field will be the determining factor in fan excitement. 

[Jeff K]

Aggressive base running sounds good.  A focus on catching the ball more effectively would be nice.

[bean5302]

I don't think Keaschall has a 40 SB season in him with the Twins. Keaschall is fast, but he's more like 65 grade speed than 80 grade like Buxton. Situations where Keaschall is on 1st base and there aren't players in front of him on base, and it's a fair opportunity to steal have to come along.

It's tough to say how Shelton will try to protect players from injury this season. If Emma makes the team and can hold his own, I wouldn't be giving him the green light much based on his history of thumb injuries while stealing, for example.

Lewis (if his speed comes back) and Buxton certainly have the speed, but they have way more game power than Keaschall so that translates to less good base stealing opportunity because Lewis and Buxton won't be on 1B nearly as often. (provided they're all good at the plate this year).

It will be interesting to watch and see if Shelton is Baldelli v2.0 like Zoll is Falvey v2.0.

[TJSweens]

Given Lewis' history with soft tissue injuries, I wouldn't exactly tell him to run at will. 

I have a good feeling about Martin. He may well become more than a platoon player. The idea that corner outfielders have to hit for power is overrated. Get on base, put pressure on the defense and play good defense.

[Linus]

You have to play to the abilities of your players and the Twins just don’t have much team speed. Even though steals are a very exciting part of the game I hate seeing outs made on the bases and that happened quite a bit at the end of last year. Give it a shot this spring to see which guys can actually do it and go from there. 

[NYCTK]

42 minutes ago, TJSweens said:

I have a good feeling about Martin. He may well become more than a platoon player. The idea that corner outfielders have to hit for power is overrated. Get on base, put pressure on the defense and play good defense.

I don't think that idea is really that prevalent. Kwan is a very respected corner OF, as is Sal Frelick. 

The issue lies with your last 3 words. Martin hasn't shown himself to be able to really play good defense. If he could, his bat and baserunning would be extremely tolerable. 

[stringer bell]

The OP names just about every player with a chance to have double digit stolen bases. If all of them have a lot of time on the field, the Twins stolen base numbers will rise, without question. As a fan, I like seeing the stolen base as an offensive weapon.

The bigger question and problem is improving base running as a team. Other than the guys listed above, the rest of the position player should limit making outs on the bases and maximize taking the extra base. The team has a host of slow guys--Bell, Caratini, Jeffers, Larnach, Lee--who probably should be conservative in running and who will at times clog the bases. 

 

[stringer bell]

7 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

I don't think that idea is really that prevalent. Kwan is a very respected corner OF, as is Sal Frelick. 

The issue lies with your last 3 words. Martin hasn't shown himself to be able to really play good defense. If he could, his bat and baserunning would be extremely tolerable. 

Martin's glovework last August and September looked very good in left field. It's a small sample size, but was part of a general uptick in his performance late last year. I'm not 100% confident he'll continue his good play, but he does provide skills that would make the team much more watchable in 2026.

[MGX]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

I don't think Keaschall has a 40 SB season in him with the Twins. Keaschall is fast, but he's more like 65 grade speed than 80 grade like Buxton. Situations where Keaschall is on 1st base and there aren't players in front of him on base, and it's a fair opportunity to steal have to come along.

It's tough to say how Shelton will try to protect players from injury this season. If Emma makes the team and can hold his own, I wouldn't be giving him the green light much based on his history of thumb injuries while stealing, for example.

Lewis (if his speed comes back) and Buxton certainly have the speed, but they have way more game power than Keaschall so that translates to less good base stealing opportunity because Lewis and Buxton won't be on 1B nearly as often. (provided they're all good at the plate this year).

It will be interesting to watch and see if Shelton is Baldelli v2.0 like Zoll is Falvey v2.0.

You may end up being right, but Josh Naylor stole 30 on 32 attempts last year & if Keaschall has a 65 grade speed then Naylor is likely a 45. Instincts play a big role in SB's.

[MGX]

1 hour ago, NYCTK said:

I don't think that idea is really that prevalent. Kwan is a very respected corner OF, as is Sal Frelick. 

The issue lies with your last 3 words. Martin hasn't shown himself to be able to really play good defense. If he could, his bat and baserunning would be extremely tolerable. 

Austin Martin earned +3 OAA in LF in only 28 starts.

[MGX]

I sure hope the Twins give Martin a fair shot at starting in LF, he earned it down the stretch last season. Why waste an opportunity to develop a FT player by turning him into a platoon player. I'm all for platoons when they make sense, but to me Martin should get a chance at being the primary LF.

[NYCTK]

1 hour ago, stringer bell said:

Martin's glovework last August and September looked very good in left field. It's a small sample size, but was part of a general uptick in his performance late last year. I'm not 100% confident he'll continue his good play, but he does provide skills that would make the team much more watchable in 2026.

He showed some improvement, sure, but to me he went from nearly unplayable in the OF to potentially OK. I do remember him just dropping a ball in August after all.

But Martin's problem is he needs to either be an exceptional fielder or sustain his hot stretch with the bat from last season in order to earn playing time. His avenue to being a productive player is very narrow due to his skill set. 

[NYCTK]

9 minutes ago, MGX said:

Austin Martin earned +3 OAA in LF in only 28 starts.

Paired with his 2024, that puts him at 0 runs over about third a season. Add that to the -5 he's accumulated in CF over about a third a season as well. 

He appears he might be anywhere from a bad to league average LF. Average would be OK with his bat based on last season, but to he honest, I'm also concerned about his bat. 

The bright spot for him last year was him proving he could still draw walks at a pretty good rate despite his lack of power threat. That skill alone makes him worthy of a 40 man roster spot and occasional play. 

[HerbieFan]

I appreciate Shelty wanting to be more aggressive on the bases.  HOWEVER, Falvey left behind maybe the slowest, least athletic roster in baseball.  So, except for Buxton, Keaschall and Martin, who runs?

[Bodie]

1 hour ago, MGX said:

You may end up being right, but Josh Naylor stole 30 on 32 attempts last year & if Keaschall has a 65 grade speed then Naylor is likely a 45. Instincts play a big role in SB's.

Hrbek and Brunanski both hit double figures in SB (too lazy to look it up, but...) without elite speed. 

Hrbie claimed later in his career that those were basically gimmies that anyone paying attention should be able to get over a season.  False modesty aside, he had a point. 

[mluebker]

6 hours ago, Jeff K said:

Aggressive base running sounds good.  A focus on catching the ball more effectively would be nice.

I’d be happy to see them doing both.

[Sam Caulder]

1 hour ago, HerbieFan said:

I appreciate Shelty wanting to be more aggressive on the bases.  HOWEVER, Falvey left behind maybe the slowest, least athletic roster in baseball.  So, except for Buxton, Keaschall and Martin, who runs?

I think it's going to have to be Lewis, but health is going to be the key factor there. Outside of those four, you're hoping to get those top few prospects (Jenkins, Rodriguez, Culpepper) up early on, all of whom can contribute 

[stringer bell]

13 minutes ago, HerbieFan said:

I appreciate Shelty wanting to be more aggressive on the bases.  HOWEVER, Falvey left behind maybe the slowest, least athletic roster in baseball.  So, except for Buxton, Keaschall and Martin, who runs?

OP included Lewis, and possibly Culpepper, Rodriguez and Jenkins. On a pure speed basis, Roden, Outman, and Kreidler would appear to have the legs to steal bases, but I doubt any of them will get that many opportunities.

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, MGX said:

You may end up being right, but Josh Naylor stole 30 on 32 attempts last year & if Keaschall has a 65 grade speed then Naylor is likely a 45. Instincts play a big role in SB's.

 

33 minutes ago, Bodie said:

Hrbek and Brunanski both hit double figures in SB (too lazy to look it up, but...) without elite speed. 

Hrbie claimed later in his career that those were basically gimmies that anyone paying attention should be able to get over a season.  False modesty aside, he had a point. 

Naylor is like 30 grade speed. He's unbelievably slow, but he did swipe 30 last year. Instincts certainly play a big role. Brian Dozier didn't have great speed, but he used instincts to steal. In regard to Naylor, it's just nonsensical, lol. Put it this way, the difference between Keaschall and Naylor at 2B is about 15 feet on raw speed.

Keaschall had an 85% success rate according to the article. Plenty good to be aggressive, if he can maintain that at the MLB level, but the more a player steals, the more opponents are generally going to be watching for it.

[stringer bell]

37 minutes ago, Bodie said:

Hrbek and Brunanski both hit double figures in SB (too lazy to look it up, but...) without elite speed. 

Hrbie claimed later in his career that those were basically gimmies that anyone paying attention should be able to get over a season.  False modesty aside, he had a point. 

Brunansky had decent speed and reached double figures three times in SB. Hrbek never topped 5 in a season. A guy with average speed can steal bags if they choose the right situations. Slow guys probably get any they add by being on the back end of double steals and taking second when no one is paying attention. 

[stringer bell]

Paul Molitor is in the Hall of Fame in part because of his stolen bases and base running. In the last half of his career for sure he didn't have blazing speed, but he was one of the best ever base runners. Some of that is instincts you can't really teach or coach, but a lot is just being smart and looking for the right opportunities.

[JD-TWINS]

10 hours ago, Jack Pine said:

it's either that or waiting for wallner to hit one with someone on base.

That doesn’t happen…..22HR and 41 total XBH with a whopping 40 RBI …….damn near impossible to pull off. The definition of “not clutch”! To me, he and Lee consistently battled for biggest disappointment!!

[JD-TWINS]

They have a handful of 15-20 SB guys along with Keaschall at 30+ and Buxton at 25+. Can’t run these latter two guys into injury …………risk/reward comes into play relative to health.

[JD-TWINS]

3 hours ago, stringer bell said:

OP included Lewis, and possibly Culpepper, Rodriguez and Jenkins. On a pure speed basis, Roden, Outman, and Kreidler would appear to have the legs to steal bases, but I doubt any of them will get that many opportunities.

I agree - he’s got more than just Buxton - Keaschall - Martin to work with but those 3 (Roden-Outman-Kriedler) have to be on the roster and more difficult, they have to get on base, increases velocity order to steal bases.

[TheLeviathan]

Glad to hear it!  I just wish we didn't have so many slow footed dudes.