Connor Prielipp: What the Future Holds for the Twins’ Top Pitching Prospect

[Sam Caulder]

Image courtesy of Image courtesy of John Vittas- Fort Myers Mighty Mussels

Connor Prielipp was the 48th overall pick in the 2022 MLB Draft, and at one point, he looked like he might go first overall. He’s currently the Twins’ No. 5 prospect and a top-100 overall prospect according to ESPN and Baseball America. On paper, he fits the mold: 6’2”, 210 pounds, left-handed, and armed with multiple swing-and-miss pitches. But his path hasn’t been smooth, and the reason starts early.

As a 19-year-old true freshman at the University of Alabama, Prielipp was untouchable. In 21 innings, he didn’t allow a single run. He struck out 35, walked six, and gave up just five hits. It was absurd. At that point, the conversation wasn’t whether he’d be a first-round pick; it was whether he’d go No. 1 overall.

Then came 2021. He was limited to seven innings as a sophomore before undergoing Tommy John surgery. Just like that, his trajectory shifted from a fast-rising ace to a rehab project.

After recovering from Tommy John, Prielipp made his professional debut in 2023. But after just 6.2 innings, he underwent internal brace surgery to reinforce his surgically repaired UCL. Another setback, and another reset.

So before he had even logged meaningful professional innings, he had already endured two significant elbow procedures. That context matters when evaluating everything that’s come since.

We finally got a slightly longer look late in 2024. He threw 23.1 innings, 19 at High-A, finishing with a 2.70 ERA and 41 strikeouts against just seven walks. That looked like the Connor Prielipp the Twins drafted; attacking hitters and missing bats at a high clip.

And the advanced numbers supported it. During that 2024 stretch, he posted a swinging-strike rate north of 24% and a CSW% (called strikes plus whiffs) around 38%. Those are elite bat-missing indicators, especially for someone working back from major elbow surgery. But the stuff has never been the issue. 

Prielipp throws a four-pitch mix: fastball, slider, sinker, and changeup. His fastball typically sits 94-95 mph and can touch 97. It’s a strong pitch, but the slider is the headliner. On the 20-80 scouting scale, where 50 is league average and 80 is elite, his slider earns a 70. That’s firmly in plus-plus territory, and it’s quite literally one of the best sliders in professional baseball. His fastball carries a 60 grade, and his changeup sits around 55.

The underlying data backs those grades up. Last season, he generated a 56% swing-and-miss rate on his slider and a 62% swing-and-miss rate on his changeup when hitters offered. When he’s ahead in the count, he has very legitimate put-away pitches.

The overall dominance dipped in 2025. He climbed to Triple-A, throwing 82.2 innings across Double-A and Triple-A with a 4.03 ERA and 98 strikeouts against 31 walks. The strikeouts show the upside, and the stuff still plays. But perhaps most importantly, as Prielipp himself even acknowledged, was staying healthy.

"Yeah, like you said, it was a good last year. The main thing for me was just to stay healthy through a full season, and I accomplished that."

The concern last season wasn't health-related; it was the 94 hits he allowed and his 1.51 WHIP. A major reason for that was a .394 batting average allowed on balls in play, an extraordinarily high number that’s almost certain to regress. His fielding independent pitching (FIP) sat comfortably lower than his ERA, and his left-on-base rate was under 70%, suggesting some poor sequencing luck. Luckily, improvement doesn’t require a complete overhaul again; it requires tightening command and getting more neutral batted-ball outcomes.

Even in 2025, his strikeout-minus-walk profile remained solid, reinforcing that his ability to overpower hitters is very real. But when he misses in the zone, high-level hitters can make him pay. Cleaning up command, especially when ahead in counts, will determine whether he takes another step.

One interesting note: he threw his slider roughly a third of the time, more than any other pitch in his arsenal. Given his elbow history, that might raise eyebrows since sliders can be taxing. But when you have a 70-grade pitch that generates that many whiffs, it’s hard not to lean on it. In shorter bursts, that pitch could become even more devastating.

Which brings us to the bigger question: what is Connor Prielipp long term? When asked about it, he addressed it directly. 

"So far, I'm told I'm being built up as a starter, so I'm cool with that plan, and we'll see where it goes."

34 of his 35 minor league appearances have been starts. He was drafted as a starter, but between the injury history and the Twins’ rotation depth, it’s fair to wonder if Prielipp's future is in the bullpen. That’s where I personally tend to lean.

He’s made just one minor league start where he pitched into the sixth inning. I understand minor league pitchers often work shorter outings, especially while building back up from surgery. But when your average start hovers around three innings, projecting a traditional 180-inning major league starter becomes difficult.

That doesn’t mean he can’t be a difference-maker.

In fact, he could thrive in a late-inning role. Plenty of elite relievers dominate with two or three pitches. Prielipp has three above-league-average offerings that all move differently and play off each other. The fastball can overpower. The slider can put hitters away. The changeup neutralizes right-handers. In one or two inning bursts, that mix could be electric.

He’ll likely open 2026 in Triple-A. But health permitting, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him in the majors at some point during the season, even if it’s a limited look. At this stage, the priority isn’t defining his role; it’s staying healthy and stacking innings.

He’s absolutely one of those prospects with massive upside. If everything clicks and his arm holds up, he could anchor the back end of a bullpen, or perhaps carve out a role as a starter. But he’s also the type of arm where, if injuries resurface, we might look back years from now and wonder what could have been.

That’s the battle with high-upside pitching prospects. The talent is obvious. The advanced metrics confirm it. Now it’s about durability and refinement.

If his left arm cooperates, Connor Prielipp has the tools to be a real impact piece for the Twins someday. And that’s why he remains one of the most fascinating arms in the system.

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[OregonTwinsFan]

I think the bullpen is a no-brainer...he could be an elite closer IMO.

[HerbieFan]

SO tantalizing as a starter.  A move to the bullpen just seems like the most responsible move for all parties.  He's so talented it feels like the Twins HAVE to get something from him and the 'pen seems like the most sure-fire way to do that.

[SarasotaBill]

Last year was his true season in five years. Of course the Twins took it easy with him.

Let him build up some more this year and see where he's at.

[bean5302]

Quote

...One interesting note: he threw his slider roughly a third of the time, more than any other pitch in his arsenal. Given his elbow history, that might raise eyebrows since sliders can be taxing...

The curveball is the most stressful on the elbow/arm of any pitch based on velocity neutral numbers, but velocity itself increases stress on the elbow. In testing, the fastball is the pitch which generates the most force on an elbow.

The theory the slider was causing UCL injuries was based on the correlation between more sliders and more UCL injuries. Turns out, that's almost certainly a cause of correlation rather than causation.

[bean5302]

This is the year for Prielipp to show what he's really got. Now more than a full year removed from UCL surgery recovery, his control and command should be solid. The walk rates last year in AA were good, but awful at AAA. Will Preilipp be able to generate the Ks without the BBs is the question at AAA now, if not Spring Training. If Prelipp can't get Ks without the BBs, he's going to have to move the the 'pen. A real bummer.

[Fred]

Honestly curious. Is there a downside to "internal brace" surgery? Why don't they do that the first time surgery is needed?

[TJSweens]

Keep him on the path to being a starter until he shows he can't be a starter. Starters are the core of the pitching staff. Right now Prielipp has a better arsenal than the guys who are vying for the last rotation spots. Keep stretching him out and he could make his debut this year.

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, Fred said:

Honestly curious. Is there a downside to "internal brace" surgery? Why don't they do that the first time surgery is needed?

They can do an internal brace as a first time surgery. It's only viable for strains/tears which are relatively modest. Severe strains and total tears need more than the internal brace.

A UCL brace procedure is often touted as a potential 6 month recovery timetable, though I think 12 months is more realistic. Full reconstruction is often seen as a 12 month ordeal, though again, I think 15-18 months is more realistic.

 

[DarrenPS]

I understand why people want to move Prielipp to the bullpen, they just want some kind of value in general, but can I remind you of an early career often injured lefty named Garrett Crochet? Sometimes sticking with them really works out. Keep him a starter as long as possible imo

That being said, I would also support moving him to the pen this season and still giving him a future starter opportunity, which is also what Crochet did

[GopherTide]

While I understand the logic of moving him to the pen to increase the likelihood of getting meaningful innings out of him, I also wonder how often the Twins will have access to a pitcher with his skillset and potential to be a frontline starter.  Obviously, they're not going to sign too many of those guys as free agents and they seem to prefer taking shortstops high in the draft versus arms.  My head says move him to the pen, but my heart says roll the dice and keep him as a starter.

I also wonder how much harder is it on an arm to go 85 - 90% for 5 innings once a week versus 100% for an inning 3 times a week coming out of the pen?  Not sure if there are any studies that may give insight on that.

[RaoulDuke]

Prielipp is on the Duran path.  Tantalizing as a starter but beset by injuries and maybe currently lacking a full starters repertoire.

Do you continue spending another season stretching him out to get the innings limit up, or do you turn him loose in the pen and see what you have.

I would put him in the pen and get him in MLB while he is healthy and has bullets.  The current state of the Twins also gives plenty of runway to let him learn on the job and grow.

The recent signings are a weird change to add to the situation however.  Now they have Banda/ Rogers/ Chafin/ Funderburk coming in as lefties to suddenly crowd the pen picture.  I guess he probably continues to start at AAA now.   

 

[Fatbat]

He just turned 25. He is on a delayed developmental path that puts him in MLB this year with elite skills.  No doubt he gets the call, wherever they need him at.  There are a crazy amount of questionable arms in the organization this spring and most won’t be around in 2 to 3 years but CP will definitely be here and getting tons of outs. 

[dxpavelka]

14 hours ago, DarrenPS said:

I understand why people want to move Prielipp to the bullpen, they just want some kind of value in general, but can I remind you of an early career often injured lefty named Garrett Crochet? Sometimes sticking with them really works out. Keep him a starter as long as possible imo

That being said, I would also support moving him to the pen this season and still giving him a future starter opportunity, which is also what Crochet did

Totally agree.  At least give him a shot as a starter.  Look back to the guy we just traded last year at the deadline.  Started 80 out of 84 games on the farm.  Was LIGHTS OUT in the big leagues as a closer.  But always the nagging question of what might have been.  If starting doesn't work always much easier to transition to the pen.  Once you commit a guy's career to the pen it's tough to put the genie back in the bottle.  Yes, I know, five people will give me examples of guys transitioning to starting.  Rick Aguilera is one.  Maybe one of the best examples.  And he lasted one season as a starter with less than stellar results before going back to being a bell cow closer.  Hell, 90% of the fan base is convinced this is a lost season anyway. Give the kid a chance.  

[bean5302]

9 hours ago, RaoulDuke said:

Prielipp is on the Duran path.  Tantalizing as a starter but beset by injuries and maybe currently lacking a full starters repertoire.

Do you continue spending another season stretching him out to get the innings limit up, or do you turn him loose in the pen and see what you have.

I would put him in the pen and get him in MLB while he is healthy and has bullets.  The current state of the Twins also gives plenty of runway to let him learn on the job and grow.

The recent signings are a weird change to add to the situation however.  Now they have Banda/ Rogers/ Chafin/ Funderburk coming in as lefties to suddenly crowd the pen picture.  I guess he probably continues to start at AAA now.   

 

"Injury" singular. He had a failed UCL surgery.
Prielipp blew out his elbow right away at age 21 in college before the season started. Prielipp was drafted by the Twins after he began throwing the following year at age 22. At age 23, it was discovered the surgery was a failure and he had to undergo a UCL brace while at A+ (no where remotely close to MLB ready). So Prielipp was given time to stretch back out as he still wasn't near MLB ready. Prielipp has 4 pitches. He doesn't need to be "stretched out" as he was throwing 6 innings at the end of last year. He can at least make it to 130-140 innings this year. Effectiveness will have a much bigger impact on him than an innings limit, IMHO. But he's going to be starting off in AAA unless he's in the 'pen.

Duran blew his elbow out in his age 23 season at AAA. The Twins moved him to the bullpen because he wasn't going to be able to stretch out for the next season as a starter coming off UCL surgery. Duran had 3 pitches.

The two aren't very similar.

Beyond that, the best closer in baseball is worth a #4-5 rotation arm.

[JD-TWINS]

16 hours ago, DarrenPS said:

I understand why people want to move Prielipp to the bullpen, they just want some kind of value in general, but can I remind you of an early career often injured lefty named Garrett Crochet? Sometimes sticking with them really works out. Keep him a starter as long as possible imo

That being said, I would also support moving him to the pen this season and still giving him a future starter opportunity, which is also what Crochet did

Johan Santana pitched from PEN most of his first 3 seasons …… younger, but still was a reliever and won 2 Cy Young’s. Not comparing talent but many, many guys have started in relief roles and become viable starters eventually.

He had a 1.51 WHIP in ‘25 …….. he’s not that obviously special. Let him try to contribute to the “competitiveness” the Club wants to pursue from the PEN in ‘26.

[chpettit19]

I am not comparing Prielipp to Randy Johnson in terms of Prielipp being a Hall of Famer or having a 20+ year career, but Randy was 25 when he debuted. He turned out alright. Yes, I'd prefer the Twins top prospects to debut at an earlier age if possible, because it's generally a sign of higher upside. But Connor comes with some caveats. He blew out his elbow. It happens. A lot. But he threw 82.2 innings last year. I don't know why we're acting like he threw 42.2. 

83 is a solid number to build on. He went 5 and 6 innings in his last 2 starts. Could he be a great closer? Sure. But could he be a frontline starter? Also, a yes. And I'll take a frontline starter over a great closer 100% of the time. Yes, there's a chance he blows out his elbow again if he's a starter. There's also a chance he blows out his elbow again if he's a closer. Throwing a baseball really, really hard is bad for your elbow. 

Keep him as a starter. Get him to 130 innings and see where the chips fall.

[arby58]

17 hours ago, DarrenPS said:

I understand why people want to move Prielipp to the bullpen, they just want some kind of value in general, but can I remind you of an early career often injured lefty named Garrett Crochet? Sometimes sticking with them really works out. Keep him a starter as long as possible imo

Starting him in the bullpen doesn't necessarily mean he can't go back to being a starting pitcher. Chris Sale was solely a relief pitcher his first two years with the White Sox. Derek Lowe was primarily a relief pitcher his first five years, then at age 29 switched to starting and won 21 games. There are other examples as well. The Twins will likely need another elite starting pitcher at the latest in 2028. He could be the Twins version of Derek Lowe. 

[JD-TWINS]

11 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Totally agree.  At least give him a shot as a starter.  Look back to the guy we just traded last year at the deadline.  Started 80 out of 84 games on the farm.  Was LIGHTS OUT in the big leagues as a closer.  But always the nagging question of what might have been.  If starting doesn't work always much easier to transition to the pen.  Once you commit a guy's career to the pen it's tough to put the genie back in the bottle.  Yes, I know, five people will give me examples of guys transitioning to starting.  Rick Aguilera is one.  Maybe one of the best examples.  And he lasted one season as a starter with less than stellar results before going back to being a bell cow closer.  Hell, 90% of the fan base is convinced this is a lost season anyway. Give the kid a chance.  

1.51 WHIP in ‘25.

PEN to Starter: Crochet in past 2 years - Johann Santana did OK too after 2 1/2 yrs in the PEN.

Career innings pitched Professionally since 2020 by year: 21 - 7.2 - zero - 6.2 - 23.1 - 82.2……….I can’t imagine how anyone doesn’t think his innings need to be monitored in ‘26? Seems easy to execute an innings plan, while contributing, from the PEN.

Can’t run a professional sports franchise based on “fan opinions” about the upcoming season.

[JD-TWINS]

Johan Santana pitched in relief 25 - 11 - 13 - 27 games in his first 4 seasons………he started a handful of games in a couple seasons and 10 or so in the other two seasons. He shifted to “full time starter” while in his 5th season………he then finished 3rd twice and 5th once in Cy Young voting ……….. as well as Winning the Award twice.

Starting out in the PEN is not a sentence for one’s entire career.

[dxpavelka]

5 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

1.51 WHIP in ‘25.

PEN to Starter: Crochet in past 2 years - Johann Santana did OK too after 2 1/2 yrs in the PEN.

Career innings pitched Professionally since 2020 by year: 21 - 7.2 - zero - 6.2 - 23.1 - 82.2……….I can’t imagine how anyone doesn’t think his innings need to be monitored in ‘26? Seems easy to execute an innings plan, while contributing, from the PEN.

Can’t run a professional sports franchise based on “fan opinions” about the upcoming season.

so you named TWO-in the last quarter century

 

[sun]

It's too risky for him to be a starter. The most that he can be is a long reliever. With the state of the Twins rotation, they're going to need a long reliever anyway.  Wishing for him to b a starter won't turn him into a starter.If he can florish out of the pen, then there's always the future potential.

[bean5302]

It's true there are starters who begin in the bullpen... but they're in the bullpen because they need to be stretched out or were ineffective as starters as they had to develop additional offerings. They proved the NEED to be in the bullpen. 

In Johan Santana's case, he was a rule 5 pick who was traded. He needed to stay on the active roster and he was not ready to start. It's widely lamented the Twins didn't move him entirely to starter in 2002 as he maybe wins an additional Cy Young or two and is potentially in the MLB HoF now.

Relievers are relievers because they cannot be effective starters.

[Danchat]

I didn't realize he had a 1.51 WHIP last year... and only 3 1/3 innings per start, and he's already 25. I think we know how this ends, and it's unlikely to be in the MLB rotation.