Pierson Ohl's Changeup Might Be the Best Pitch In Minnesota Twins' Bullpen

[Cody Schoenmann]

Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images

Last week, Twins Daily's Matthew Trueblood wrote a piece on changeup specialists the Twins will target in free agency, highlighting Tommy Kahnle, Luke Weaver, and Kyle Finnegan. Finnegan is off the market, signing a two-year, $19 million contract with the Detroit Tigers. Kahnle and/or Weaver would still be welcome additions to Minnesota's bullpen, presumably stepping in as the club's primary closer. However, if the Twins are unable to sign them, the club could potentially lean on an in-house option as their changeup relief specialist in Pierson Ohl.

Making his major league debut late last July, Ohl primarily operated in a hybrid stretch relief role, pitching in four-inning spurts. The 26-year-old struggled in his inaugural campaign, generating a 5.10 ERA and 4.75 FIP over 30 innings pitched. However, the young righty improved upon transitioning into a short relief role in mid-September, manufacturing a 3.86 ERA, 2.81 FIP, and 11-to-2 strikeout to walk ratio over his final 9 1/3 innings pitched.

Ohl could continue inhabiting that role with intentions of entrenching himself as part of Minnesota's long-term bullpen plans. However, he will need to compete with fellow inexperienced arms in Travis Adams, Connor Prielipp, Marco Raya, John Klein, and others for one of the final spots in the eight-pitcher unit. Interestingly, Ohl could have the inside track on the aforementioned quartet (besides maybe Prielipp) due to his possessing what might be the best pitch in Minnesota's bullpen.

Thrown 205 times last season, Ohl's changeup generated the second-highest Pitching+ (a metric that uses the physical characteristics, location, and count of each pitch to try to judge the overall quality of the pitcher's process) rating of all Twins reliever pitches post-trade deadline, achieving a 129 (100 is average). The only pitch that netted better results than Ohl's changeup was Justin Topa's sinker, which manufactured a 131 Pitching+. Ohl's changeup had better physical characteristics than Topa's sinker. However, Topa was able to locate his sinker better than Ohl did his changeup, resulting in a slightly better score.

Ohl's changeup and Topa's sinker are neck-and-neck in overall pitch quality. However, with Ohl expected to transition into a one-inning role next season, he should be able to refine his pitches further, adding more velocity and movement. If Ohl takes that step, his changeup could become the highest-graded pitch in Minnesota's bullpen, potentially resulting in him progressing from throwing the pitch 38% of the time last season to over half of the time in 2026.

Ohl, Prielipp, and Raya form an exciting trio of young arms who could blossom into high-leverage relievers early next season. Prielipp's slider and/or changeup and Raya's curve could challenge Ohl's changeup and Topa's sinker for being the best pitch in Minnesota's bullpen next season. For now, though, Ohl's changeup is arguably the most enticing pitch of Twins relievers with major league experience. If the young right-hander can fortify his secondary pitches this offseason (four-seamer, cutter, and knuckle curve), he could be the recipient of save opportunities early next spring.

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[DJL44]

This does not make me feel good about the Twins bullpen. Ohl was able to fool batters a couple times with that changeup but eventually they would sit on it and crush it.

[Hrbeks Divot]

While I agree that Ohl should get an  opportunity for one of the final bullpen spots, if he’s getting save opportunities next year we’re in for another long season. His four seam and cutter aren’t nearly good enough, at this time, for that role. Let’s hope he’s taken a step in the offseason to be a middle innings guy for us.

[thelanges5]

Keep the young man in a one inning or one time through the lineup limit. He pitched a little better when he was not being used in a long relief role.

[High heat]

I think him and Travis Adam’s will have an opportunity to prepare this offseason and could make a nice transition to solid MLB reliever in ‘26.  
 

The problem is there is only two of them and no going to be 100% success.  Even if you let Raya and Phrielipp start the season in the bullpen (highly unlikely) they will go through some lumps as well. 
 

Maybe 2 of the 4 by seasons end become successful relievers and now you have 2 of the 5 spots you traded away filled.  
 

You are going to have to do this with about 5 more starters to maybe have some  resemblances of successful bullpen in ‘27.

On the positive side I did like Ohl and Adam’s later in September when I could stomach watching the Twins.

[KirbyDome89]

Feels a little early for the "best shape of his life," type articles. 

[Parfigliano]

Pitching+ metric.  OK sure.  Make up the right metric and any pitcher can be made to look good-great on paper.  Who needs actual results.

[mnfireman]

52 minutes ago, thelanges5 said:

Keep the young man in a one inning or one time through the lineup limit. He pitched a little better when he was not being used in a long relief role.

Agreed. Looking at his splits, he was horrible as an opener: 3 GS, 8 IP, 12.38 ERA, but serviceable as a reliever: 11 GMS, 22 IP,  2.45 ERA. He did alright in a couple of his long-relief appearances, but was almost unhittable in his 1 inning appearances (SSS).

[jmlease1]

I don't mind giving Ohl a real shot at a bullpen job. He's got a pitch in the changeup that might allow him to thrive, and coming out of a starter/bulk pitching mode, he should be able to handle a workload where he's asked to go 1-2 innings in a stint 2-3 times a week. Maybe going max effort allows his fastball to play up a bit, maybe trimming down/adjusting his pitch mix a little lets him be more consistent.

As a candidate for the 7th-8th slot in an 8-man bullpen, he could be a reasonable fit and grow into a higher leverage role. And if not, you still need guys who can give you credible innings in the 5th and 6th innings on a consistent basis.

To me, it's not about whether or not Ohl can step in a role, really; it's whether or not he's going to get handed one on scholarship because we don't bring in anyone credible for a high leverage role from the jump. I like having guys like Ohl, Raya, Adams, Preilipp competing for spots in the bullpen. I just think they need to have 3-4 guys like them fighting for 1-2 jobs, not presuming that they already have one...

[Cody Schoenmann]

18 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

Pitching+ metric.  OK sure.  Make up the right metric and any pitcher can be made to look good-great on paper.  Who needs actual results.

Pitching+ is the combination of Stuff+ and Location+. It quantifies the quality of a specific pitch and the pitcher's ability to locate it. 

[Cody Schoenmann]

56 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Feels a little early for the "best shape of his life," type articles. 

I used statistics from last season.

[tony&rodney]

Good article. Ohl has a chance but he might need another pitch so that players cannot sit on the changeup. I will say though that a really good changeup is hard to hit on the sweet spot even when you are looking for it.

[Cody Schoenmann]

1 minute ago, tony&rodney said:

Good article. Ohl has a chance but he might need another pitch so that players cannot sit on the changeup. I will say though that a really good changeup is hard to hit on the sweet spot even when you are looking for it.

just ask Tommy Kahnle!

[KirbyDome89]

38 minutes ago, Cody Schoenmann said:

I used statistics from last season.

👍

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, Cody Schoenmann said:

just ask Tommy Kahnle!

That is exactly who I was thinking about. Kahnle could hit triple digits and sat upper 90s with his rarely thrown fastball. Fastballs, even big numbers, that are flat and visible gets hit. The changeup that moves real late can be almost like a knuckleball and very difficult to square. Most pitchers struggle to throw a real consistent changeup and the weak ones don't come back. I like Ohl and the way he sees the game.

[mikelink45]

I am always confused by changeup specialists.  If there fastball is no good why is the changeup good?  If that is his only good pitch - sit on it and have a nice slow ball to slug. 

[DocBauer]

IMO, the 8th spot in the pen, currently, is between Ohl and Adams. WAIT, what about the other 7 spots? There's still a LOT to be figured out between trades and signings. So I'm ONLY focusing on the OP.

I don't take a lot of belief in any rookie arms initial appearance. Stuff plays up in the bullpen. I think Adams has a chance. His STUFF isn't great, but I saw enough movement on some of his pitches to believe he might become a functional reliever with some upside.

But I like Ohl more. While he slipped in 2024, he's always shown solid control. His FB touches 95 these days. His change is excellent. I don't think his potential is as good as Sands at this point, I think his change has the potential to move him from the #8 spot, sacrifical lamb to ride the St Paul shuttle, to being a solid, dependable middle arm. His experience as a former SP might make him a 2 IP pen arm you can count on.

Anything more than that is questionable projection and TBD. 

[Elliot]

I kind of doubt that Tommy Kahnale is coming to the Twins. A handful of years ago on a broadcast of a Twins game LaTroy Hawkins referred to him as the worst teammate he had in 21 years of MLB. In his new role as BP coach I would hope that Hawkins would not be thrilled with introducing that type of personality into the mix. I think there even rumors of a fist fight. 

[tony&rodney]

52 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

I am always confused by changeup specialists.  If there fastball is no good why is the changeup good?  If that is his only good pitch - sit on it and have a nice slow ball to slug. 

The best change artists have more than one way to move the ball. The fade, break, roll is late and often unpredictable. A good change is often a pitch that results in low exit velocities and poor barrel numbers for the batter. Sitting on a change doesn't necessarily help. I don't know what is the max number of consecutive changeups thrown by Tommy Kahnle but it must be near 40 or at least 30.

[HerbieFan]

I wonder if he could trim it down to a slider/change mix if he's used in more traditional bullpen roles....one inning at a time.  

[Otaknam]

I hope the optimism on Ohl is justified because the Twins need to rebuild the bullpen. Raya does seem destined for the bullpen too, given his injury history. But I am hoping that Prielipp stays healthy and moves into a starting role and lives up to his expectations. 

[JD-TWINS]

I think LaTroy Hawkins will seriously help with mental aspects and approach from the PEN!

Orze - Sands - Topa - Adams - Funderburk are all 5th-6th-7th & maybe, occasional 8th inning guys.

Add……..Prielipp - Morris - Raya - Mathews (Klein & I guess, Ohl have an outside chance)

Personally, I’d add Thielbar & Coulombe for $7-$8M total & figure out the backend with the young guys (Matthews?).

With that said, the TEAM still has $15M to spend in free agency. Spend on a depth SS & one of Arraez/O’Hearn/Lowe. 

Can then look at trades to really add a strength………to me, trading Ryan or Lopez for prospects makes no sense whatsoever.

[terrydactyls]

19 hours ago, Cody Schoenmann said:

Pitching+ is the combination of Stuff+ and Location+. It quantifies the quality of a specific pitch and the pitcher's ability to locate it. 

Still sounds like b.s. to me.  To me, the best metric (?) for a relief pitcher is:  does he consistently get people out, or GPO.  But I guess I would need to add a "+" sign (GPO+) to make that an official metric.

[LambchoP]

Without some external additions our pen will be a real mess. Might as well throw all these young guys out there and let them compete for innings and see who's left standing. Going into the season with Sands or Topa as our closer is laughable.