Minnesota Twins "More Likely" To Move Pablo Lopez Than Joe Ryan

[nicksaviking]

23 hours ago, lecroy24fan said:

MLB has not approved them yet. That is why we don't know who they are.

And I wonder if MLB has not approved them yet, because the Twins haven't given any assurances that they won't turn into Bob Nutting and the Pirates even with these new guys paying off the debt from the Pohlad's other businesses.

Zero chance the Twins brought in these new investors without discussing future payroll with them beforehand. They know what they WANT payroll to be. I'm wondering if the hold up is the rest of the league is balking at them becoming a bottom basement payroll team.

[RpR]

On 11/16/2025 at 7:57 AM, saviking said:

I've been saying they shoukd trade Pablo and use his money to try and sign Ryan to a long term contract with it. 

Ryan is a Blyleven homer happy pitcher without the offense to back him up, Pablo is a much better bet.

[DJL44]

51 minutes ago, RpR said:

Ryan is a Blyleven homer happy pitcher without the offense to back him up, Pablo is a much better bet.

Bert Blyleven is a member of the baseball Hall of Fame. I would love if the rotation was filled with Bert Blyleven-caliber pitchers.

[The Great Hambino]

59 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

And I wonder if MLB has not approved them yet, because the Twins haven't given any assurances that they won't turn into Bob Nutting and the Pirates even with these new guys paying off the debt from the Pohlad's other businesses.

Zero chance the Twins brought in these new investors without discussing future payroll with them beforehand. They know what they WANT payroll to be. I'm wondering if the hold up is the rest of the league is balking at them becoming a bottom basement payroll team.

Out of curiosity, I looked up the timeline of the Rays recent sale being announced, then approved.  From what I can gather, it was announced June 18 and approved September 23.  

The Pohlads announced the limited partners on August 13.  Originally they said approval would happen at the end of the season.  That obviously didn't happen.   Going off the Rays approval timeline, they should be getting approved about now.  Maybe they're waiting until the winter meetings since we're pretty close to them happening anyway.  But the longer this goes, the greater the chance there's something holding up approval.  Could be other owners not trusting the Twins' intentions as you outlined above.  Could that one of the groups has a member with shaky finances.  Could be one of the limited partner groups getting cold feet.  Could be whatever's inside the mystery box. 

Whatever it is, I'm going to hold off until the winter meetings before panicking too much about it.   It sure would've been nice to have this resolved before the offseason started, but it's not a huge issue yet.

After the winter meetings?  Start panicking.

[jctwins]

19 minutes ago, The Great Hambino said:

Out of curiosity, I looked up the timeline of the Rays recent sale being announced, then approved.  From what I can gather, it was announced June 18 and approved September 23.  

The Pohlads announced the limited partners on August 13.  Originally they said approval would happen at the end of the season.  That obviously didn't happen.   Going off the Rays approval timeline, they should be getting approved about now.  Maybe they're waiting until the winter meetings since we're pretty close to them happening anyway.  But the longer this goes, the greater the chance there's something holding up approval.  Could be other owners not trusting the Twins' intentions as you outlined above.  Could that one of the groups has a member with shaky finances.  Could be one of the limited partner groups getting cold feet.  Could be whatever's inside the mystery box. 

Whatever it is, I'm going to hold off until the winter meetings before panicking too much about it.   It sure would've been nice to have this resolved before the offseason started, but it's not a huge issue yet.

After the winter meetings?  Start panicking.

I hope you aren't panicking about anything related to this train wreck. 

[RpR]

21 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Bert Blyleven is a member of the baseball Hall of Fame. I would love if the rotation was filled with Bert Blyleven-caliber pitchers.

Bert Blyleven did not pitch with this team behind him  your analogy is poppycock.

His being in the hall of fame has bollocks to do with Ryan giving up home runs. 

Bert gave up 90 home runs in his first five years, whereas, Ryan has give up 101 .

LOL,  Bert pitched 27 games in his first year; Ryan pitched 5 gaves in his first year and still gave up 11 more home runs in the same amount of time.

 

[spanman2]

On 11/15/2025 at 12:14 PM, TopGunn#22 said:

I would think exactly the opposite.  Both pitchers are quite similar statistically.  And they are both close in age.  The huge difference is in what each is making for a salary and as a result, Joe Ryan would bring back a much better player package.  The $21.7 million Lopez is making in 2026 is actually a tremendous bargain for a pitcher of his caliber.  With so many minimum salaries scattered throughout the Twins roster, the highest salary doesn’t need to be moved.  You go for the bigger return in talent Joe Ryan brings back.

You are thinking logically...Pohlad's are thinking about the Benjamins...I agree with your overall take.  

[ashbury]

20 hours ago, RpR said:

Bert gave up 90 home runs in his first five years, whereas, Ryan has give up 101 .

Home run rate across the majors was 3.1% in 2025.  When Bert pitched it was more like 2.1%.  That more than makes up the difference you're harping on.

[RpR]

2 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Home run rate across the majors was 3.1% in 2025.  When Bert pitched it was more like 2.1%.  That more than makes up the difference you're harping on.

If you say so...🤠

[ashbury]

2 minutes ago, RpR said:

If you say so...🤠

baseball-reference.com says so, if you're questioning the historical record. 

If you're questioning the use of the historical record to draw conclusions, I can't help you.

[RpR]

39 minutes ago, ashbury said:

baseball-reference.com says so, if you're questioning the historica8l record. 

If you're questioning the use of the historical record to draw conclusions, I can't help you.

By dividing home runs into games pitched percentage:

Blyleven - 8.6

Lopez - 11.9

Ryan - 15.7

[DJL44]

21 hours ago, RpR said:

Bert Blyleven did not pitch with this team behind him  your analogy is poppycock.

Joe Ryan = Bert Blyleven because they both gave up HR was your analogy, not mine. I'm pretty sure HR are one of the things where the defense behind the pitcher doesn't matter.

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

baseball-reference.com says so, if you're questioning the historical record. 

If you're questioning the use of the historical record to draw conclusions, I can't help you.

I mean, anyone who watched baseball in the 1980s remembers how rare HR were. Those Cardinals teams that were in the WS every other year probably stole 3x as many bases as they hit home runs.

[nicksaviking]

52 minutes ago, RpR said:

By dividing home runs into games pitched percentage:

Blyleven - 8.6

Lopez - 11.9

Ryan - 15.7

Sure, but you forgot to include how many games Joe Ryan pitched in 1985 and how many games Bert Blyleven pitched in 2025.

[Doctor Wu]

I still think the more likely pitcher traded is Joe Ryan. I think we would get more back for him in a trade, plus, I just like having Pablo as the veteran head of the staff. He's the one I would keep. 

[amjgt]

On 11/16/2025 at 12:31 PM, Chembry said:

Falvey stated at the GM meeting last week that they are waiting for MLB to approve the minority partners.  He also specifically stated once they are approved, they will discuss payroll and get the minority partners ideas on payroll.  

I understand this has been the talking point and on it's surface, it seems to make sense. BUT...

The only way I could see a minority owner (who owns, what? 1/6th of the team?) having any sway over payroll would be if they said "here's an extra $30M to put towards 2026/27 payroll." Outside of that, since when do minority owners get a say in what the team's payroll is?

[amjgt]

20 hours ago, ashbury said:

Home run rate across the majors was 3.1% in 2025.  When Bert pitched it was more like 2.1%.  That more than makes up the difference you're harping on.

First 5 years:
Bert - 1335.2 IP - 0.6 HR/9 (0.9 HR/9 adjusted to 2025 HR rate)

Joe - 641.1 IP - 1.4 HR/9

So, if you adjust for MLB HR % by the era, then Joe Ryan has given up 50% more HR than Bert.

[Chembry]

1 hour ago, amjgt said:

I understand this has been the talking point and on it's surface, it seems to make sense. BUT...

The only way I could see a minority owner (who owns, what? 1/6th of the team?) having any sway over payroll would be if they said "here's an extra $30M to put towards 2026/27 payroll." Outside of that, since when do minority owners get a say in what the team's payroll is?

I just quoted what Falvey stated.  I don't know what language is in their contracts or exactly how much each minority partner own.  None of us do.  But, this is the second time Falvey has stated the "Limited Partners" will be consulted in terms of payroll/roster construction.  At the end of the year press conference Falvey stated "We will talk about this offseason plan as well as '26, '27, '28 and beyond.  This will be a different version of that conversation with Limited Partners involved in a way that hasn't happened to date".

More broadly, if I invested in a product, I would have my views on how best to grow that investment.  Given what Falvey has stated twice, the Limited Partners will be consulted on payroll/roster construction.  Whether they have any sway remains to be seen. 

I understand your point though. We don't know any specifics of that relationship and we probably never will.    

 

 

[amjgt]

I understand you're going off of what Falvey is saying.

I think what I'm saying is, for 2 reasons, I think he's just using it as a convenient way to kick the can down the road and/or not really answer the question.... 

1) As I said before, it doesn't make sense from a historic minority/majority owner perspective. We don't know the percentages of ownership, but we DO know that the Pohlad group is retaining over 50%. I think it's a pretty safe bet to assume the new owners will have a combined 30-40% total stake and have that be roughly split between the two parties.

2) Just because WE don't know who the minority partners are, or what they are thinking payroll wise, doesn't mean Falvey doesn't. It would be crazy if he, as the team president, didn't know those things or at the very least have a good idea of their thoughts. 

[The Great Hambino]

2 hours ago, amjgt said:

I understand this has been the talking point and on it's surface, it seems to make sense. BUT...

The only way I could see a minority owner (who owns, what? 1/6th of the team?) having any sway over payroll would be if they said "here's an extra $30M to put towards 2026/27 payroll." Outside of that, since when do minority owners get a say in what the team's payroll is?

It's not necessarily that they explicitly get a say in the payroll level - the Pohlads still have a controlling interest and ultimately can still unilaterally make the decisions.

But the type of return the limited partners are entitled to could indirectly drive the decision to set payroll.  Say they're set up as preferred equity stakeholders.  Then they're entitled to a fixed % return on their investment, which the Pohlads would have to carve out of the budget before setting payroll.  There are other similar technicalities that could affect payroll levels depending on how the agreement is structured.

It's certainly possible that they just get their proportionate return of profits as a common equity stakeholder, or maybe they don't care about the short-term return at all and are in this for the asset appreciation down the line.  But it doesn't seem likely to me that investors would just fork over $400MM to the Pohlads of all people without some sort of contractual guarantee that they'll get their return one way or another

[jaimedude]

How about instead of just dumping people they Twins invest in a catcher, and short stop. This team needs speed up the middle and a catcher that can throw people out. Pohlads will do the predictive thing which is too cut instead of keep pitching. They have the makings of a pretty good rotation as is. They need bats and offense and better defense. Sometimes the best things to do in sports isn't always the easiest or what everyone is saying. May actually draw some fans if you out a competitive product on the field. They have the makings of a good rotation, why blow that up? But that isn't our ownership they always take the easy way out and slash. Should try to move some outfield pieces to bring in infield help. 

[tony&rodney]

3 hours ago, jaimedude said:

How about instead of just dumping people they Twins invest in a catcher, and short stop. This team needs speed up the middle and a catcher that can throw people out. Pohlads will do the predictive thing which is too cut instead of keep pitching. They have the makings of a pretty good rotation as is. They need bats and offense and better defense. Sometimes the best things to do in sports isn't always the easiest or what everyone is saying. May actually draw some fans if you out a competitive product on the field. They have the makings of a good rotation, why blow that up? But that isn't our ownership they always take the easy way out and slash. Should try to move some outfield pieces to bring in infield help. 

Well you are suggesting free agents if you state "invest" and there is Bichette at something like 8 years for $240M at shortstop (he should / will move to 1B, 2B, or 3B. There is J.T. Realmuto for 2/$32M. That is about it. Trades for catchers or shortstops may be available but would require moving either highly rated prospects, fan favorites, or pitching. Harry Ford might be acquired for Royce or EmRod or Z. Matthews. Maybe Ober plus works too. The Twins might add a gamble like Jordan Lawler for Ober or Matthews plus someone like Kyle DeBarge and Jose Olivares. These guesses are among hundreds of ideas.

In the outfield you have Buxton, Jenkins, and EmRod. Nobody else has much value. Maybe Wallner sparks a conversation.

The rotation as it stands is pretty solid. The problem though is that the defense, hitting, and bullpen behind the starting pitching is real shaky. So, in a circuitous fashion, the conversation turns back to trading from the two or three most valuable players on the roster (Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Byron Buxton). Thus the Twins and their fans spin around in disagreement and with some anxiousness about the outcome of this offseason. A number of people, finding distaste with all ideas of losing certain players, have reverted to hoping the September roster will arise and correct their faults becoming a fun competitive team against all odds. 

Or ..... as Bob Dylan said, "I'll let you be in my dreams if I can be in yours."

[jaimedude]

2 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Well you are suggesting free agents if you state "invest" and there is Bichette at something like 8 years for $240M at shortstop (he should / will move to 1B, 2B, or 3B. There is J.T. Realmuto for 2/$32M. That is about it. Trades for catchers or shortstops may be available but would require moving either highly rated prospects, fan favorites, or pitching. Harry Ford might be acquired for Royce or EmRod or Z. Matthews. Maybe Ober plus works too. The Twins might add a gamble like Jordan Lawler for Ober or Matthews plus someone like Kyle DeBarge and Jose Olivares. These guesses are among hundreds of ideas.

In the outfield you have Buxton, Jenkins, and EmRod. Nobody else has much value. Maybe Wallner sparks a conversation.

The rotation as it stands is pretty solid. The problem though is that the defense, hitting, and bullpen behind the starting pitching is real shaky. So, in a circuitous fashion, the conversation turns back to trading from the two or three most valuable players on the roster (Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Byron Buxton). Thus the Twins and their fans spin around in disagreement and with some anxiousness about the outcome of this offseason. A number of people, finding distaste with all ideas of losing certain players, have reverted to hoping the September roster will arise and correct their faults becoming a fun competitive team against all odds. 

Or ..... as Bob Dylan said, "I'll let you be in my dreams if I can be in yours."

Yeah I don't think Bichette is happening. If they trade Joe Ryan, i  really hope they get a staritng shortstop or catcher back at a minimum to improve team defense and hit a little. 

[tony&rodney]

31 minutes ago, jaimedude said:

Yeah I don't think Bichette is happening. If they trade Joe Ryan, i  really hope they get a staritng shortstop or catcher back at a minimum to improve team defense and hit a little. 

And therein lies the rub .... there isn't a starting catcher or shortstop or catcher available across baseball. There are prospects and guys a little down on their luck who are gambles who could be returns in trades. These players are worth acquiring but a Joe Ryan, Pablo Lopez, Byron Buxton type by necessity requires a more handsome return.

Bichette doesn't likely have any interest in playing for the Twins unless they bid much higher than the other teams. The Twins could pull it off if they had a budget of $120M. He is a risk as well.

[laloesch]

On 11/16/2025 at 1:14 PM, lecroy24fan said:

MLB has not approved them yet. That is why we don't know who they are.

Which means this deal could fall through.  I'm not holding my breath. 

[laloesch]

On 11/17/2025 at 12:42 PM, nicksaviking said:

And I wonder if MLB has not approved them yet, because the Twins haven't given any assurances that they won't turn into Bob Nutting and the Pirates even with these new guys paying off the debt from the Pohlad's other businesses.

Zero chance the Twins brought in these new investors without discussing future payroll with them beforehand. They know what they WANT payroll to be. I'm wondering if the hold up is the rest of the league is balking at them becoming a bottom basement payroll team.

I would not be the least bit surprised.

[laloesch]

On 11/19/2025 at 7:41 AM, amjgt said:

I understand this has been the talking point and on it's surface, it seems to make sense. BUT...

The only way I could see a minority owner (who owns, what? 1/6th of the team?) having any sway over payroll would be if they said "here's an extra $30M to put towards 2026/27 payroll." Outside of that, since when do minority owners get a say in what the team's payroll is?

Didn't the Pohlads say that they were "limited minority owner partners"?  I could be wrong.  Meaning they have limited say in the day to day operations of the Twins and their payroll?

[tony&rodney]

FWIW, Calvin Griffith owned 26% of the Twins, his sister Thelma owned 26% (part of an irrevocable trust), and H. Gabriel Murphy, a Washington D.C. business fellow owned 40+% of the Twins franchise. Calvin made all decisions and ran the team but included Thelma in most everything.  Murphy had zero voting power nor any input into any dealings but received money from profits. He sold his shares to the  Tampa Bay Baseball Group for $11.5M in April of 1984.

Minority or limited partners have say only if it is written down. Politeness can dictate otherwise. Given the history of the Pohlad family it seems they retain total control. However, people can change.

 

[ashbury]

7 hours ago, laloesch said:

Didn't the Pohlads say that they were "limited minority owner partners"?  I could be wrong.  Meaning they have limited say in the day to day operations of the Twins and their payroll?

Perhaps.  It depends on what the purchase agreement says.  The Pohlads may have made certain promises in writing in order to coax these investors.

[old nurse]

7 hours ago, ashbury said:

Perhaps.  It depends on what the purchase agreement says.  The Pohlads may have made certain promises in writing in order to coax these investors.

A very small possibility that the minority owners have some knowledge that is useful?