Twins’ Deadline Bet on Major League-Ready Players Looks Like a Bust So Far

[DannySD]

Regarding the salary dump convo, a lot of these trades are indirect salary dumps. Assuming Outman and Roden are viewed as 3rd/4th OF for 2026 because signing the Larnach/Bader/MAT/Margot types costs more. 

And Jenkins, E-Rod, Gonzalez will still need to earn their way in, but that path is much clearer. 

[twinstalker]

4 hours ago, DannySD said:

And Jenkins, E-Rod, Gonzalez will still need to earn their way in, but that path is much clearer. 

Anybody can be a major leaguer if you don't have standards.  These are three very different guys.

One is guaranteed to be a good player, probably a star of some sort.

One is guaranteed to disappoint if you're naive enough to think he's going to be good.

One is probably a below average player but does have some variation around that, hitting-wise.

[old nurse]

14 hours ago, Jacksson said:

Not only did the "housecleaning" yield the wrong players in return but when it comes to the Twins trading away the proven, established, controllable, members of the bullpen, the return received was both not good enough and not enough. 

Control only in terms of a couple years of service. Arbitration is not cost control. One year of success by a player after years of failure is not establishment 

[old nurse]

Perhaps one of the critics could explain how a 33 year old pitcher with years of injuries was going to bring a huge return. The 39 innings he threw were the most he has pitched in this decade. Those 39 innings were also good enough to get him a good raise in arbitration. Despite having more than enough money the Dodgers may let him go.  A fringe player like outman is what you get. If the change of scenery theory held true the Twins would have had a decent outfielder. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

15 hours ago, Trov said:

The Philly trade discussed you need to consider what the team has already.  Specifically, the article suggests Aidan Miller was floated for the Twins, they rejected for Tait and Abel.  Well, at the time Miller was doing terrible in AA, because with his August numbers his overall was .259/.382/.427, which for a full year of a decent defending SS is good, but when he has the August mentioned his numbers were much worse. Scouting reports are he will come off SS and play 3rd or 2nd, making his bat more needed.

Then you see we have Culpepper, similar age, performing overall better at AA and despite initial thoughts of him moving off SS rumors are he is doing fine there. So bringing in Miller may have added a possible bat, but he would have slotted into the same spots as Lewis, Lee, Keashall, Culpepper, and we just drafted a SS in Houston.  

On the flip side, Tait is a top prospect, years away, but is a possible catcher, of which we have no top prospects, and a pitcher, that you can never have too many to fill in.

Miller may have value but in the Twins system he would have less value because of so many other possible guys that can cover the same areas he would do. 

Exactly correct. Good points.

[Doctor Wu]

As several others have said, it's really too early to make an accurate judgement on those trades. Overall, sure the early results are dismal. The only one that I really had high hopes for was Taj Bradley and he's looking pretty good so far. Abel seems to have the stuff of a solid rotation piece, but obviously he hasn't pitched well at all during his brief callup. But hey, I'm a patient guy and I'll wait and see what happens with these guys, Players like Outman and Roden don't seem like keepers to my eyes, but miracles can happen. The real "keepers" will undoubtedly be the prospects like Tait who are still a few years away. 

[jmlease1]

1 hour ago, old nurse said:

Perhaps one of the critics could explain how a 33 year old pitcher with years of injuries was going to bring a huge return. The 39 innings he threw were the most he has pitched in this decade. Those 39 innings were also good enough to get him a good raise in arbitration. Despite having more than enough money the Dodgers may let him go.  A fringe player like outman is what you get. If the change of scenery theory held true the Twins would have had a decent outfielder. 

It's why it was probably a stupid trade: Stewart had more value to the Twins than he had on the trade market. we emptied out all of our high-leverage relievers and in exchange for Stewart we got a failed prospect who is getting older and needs a lot of fixing to stick in MLB. The expectation of getting more for Stewart was probably wrong, but it's still a bad trade in that they lost value by trading away a player that was more valuable to them for one who is less valuable to everyone.

[Cory Engelhardt]

14 hours ago, karcherd said:

Outman will be 29 next year, other than a good rookie year what makes anyone think he will be close to a major leaguer and his defense has not been as strong as advertised.  We didn't give up much, but we need some quality in the bullpen and Stewart is better than most of the arms run out there.

If TB couldn't see the need or have the ability to get Bradley to change his pitch mix how do you expect the Twins to do better than an organization that has proven to be better at developing pitching.

So we traded for a Larnach replacement when he is only a seat warmer for a younger player.  Why give up an asset we have 5 years of control for a replacement for a known commodity we still have control for another year.  And no we will not get a major league ready player for Larnach unless he is packaged with others.

We blew up a bullpen for change sake and it has not or will make the team better in the near future. The returns for these trades needed to make a better first impression and they haven't and they are not inspiring much confidence that they will be productive members of a winning team. 

I didn't love the Outman deal either. I was just saying I THINK that's why they made the deal. They like having a true CF option for defense to back up Buxton, and Outman can be that. To me, he is the reason they signed Michael A Taylor. That's his roster fit.

Tampa Bay has made mistakes before. I mean, the Twins got Joe Ryan from them. And it's not like the Twins gave up nothing either; Jax is a high end reliever and Tampa likes him too. This deal value wise actually made quite a lot of sense to me.

I didn't love the Roden addition either, but he has the makings of possibly being a 2 WAR player in the league. And Kendry Rojas has the potential to be a starting option.in a major league rotation. That's good value for a reliever, even if the reliever was born here and I personally liked cheering for Varland.

Your last paragraph, I don't get it. Why did anyone have to make any impression in a lost season?

[karcherd]

4 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I didn't love the Outman deal either. I was just saying I THINK that's why they made the deal. They like having a true CF option for defense to back up Buxton, and Outman can be that. To me, he is the reason they signed Michael A Taylor. That's his roster fit.

Tampa Bay has made mistakes before. I mean, the Twins got Joe Ryan from them. And it's not like the Twins gave up nothing either; Jax is a high end reliever and Tampa likes him too. This deal value wise actually made quite a lot of sense to me.

I didn't love the Roden addition either, but he has the makings of possibly being a 2 WAR player in the league. And Kendry Rojas has the potential to be a starting option.in a major league rotation. That's good value for a reliever, even if the reliever was born here and I personally liked cheering for Varland.

Your last paragraph, I don't get it. Why did anyone have to make any impression in a lost season?

In my opinion if any of the acquisitions would have given a better first impression, it gives some hope for the future that maybe these trades would provide future value.  I am talking not just about everyone on this board but the casual fan, they see new players coming in who aren't improving the team in any way.  They ask why make these trades especially Outman and Roden, they just look like clones of players we already have and had the same impact as players on the roster.  

[Cory Engelhardt]

3 minutes ago, karcherd said:

In my opinion if any of the acquisitions would have given a better first impression, it gives some hope for the future that maybe these trades would provide future value.  I am talking not just about everyone on this board but the casual fan, they see new players coming in who aren't improving the team in any way.  They ask why make these trades especially Outman and Roden, they just look like clones of players we already have and had the same impact as players on the roster.  

Roden got hurt immediately after being here. Hard to put too much on that.

Outman, yeah, we'll see.

I'm not here to say that 2026 will be rainbows and bunnies and free candy for everyone. But I do think Abel and Bradley have major league quality stuff (Bradley looked really good yesterday outside of the homerun) so I know this is a lost year and they had a horrible season win loss wise, but the returns from the trade deadline aren't what I am angry about with this team. 

[Woof Bronzer]

2 hours ago, old nurse said:

Perhaps one of the critics could explain how a 33 year old pitcher with years of injuries was going to bring a huge return.  

Then don't trade him?

[saviking]

Give us your tired, your poor, your huddled masses.

[saviking]

12 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Retrospect is important. As well as a long term lense. I didn't like all of the moves made to be certain. But I can now look a little more honestly, weeks gone by, at these moves.

1] I HATED Outman for Stewart. It only garnered a Keirsey clone with a slightly better track record. BOTH should be DFA immediately and maybe keep one for AAA ball in 2026 if they want to stick around. I'm actually more pissed that they've let them keep a 40 man roster vs letting Fedko get a 30 day shot to see up close what you might have.

FO short sightedness yet again.

2] Zero problem moving Coulombe for a young LH arm like Horn, lower level, with talent. And Coulombe might be right back on another 1yr deal for 2026 to keep the same role he had: 1 out, or 1 IP.

3] Paddack for a really young switch hitting catcher with a strong arm, some hit ability, some power, and the ability to stick behind the plate? I had HOPED for a pen arm that might be ready to help in 2026. That certainly didn't happen here. And it's a LONG ROAD before Jimenez might reach the ML. But if he really is Vazquez with a better bat...comparisons I've heard...this might be a STEAL!

4] Hendry Mendez for Bader with a 16-17yo kid named Villoria as a pitcher thrown in. Again, I had hope for a 2026 BP option, or maybe even a 4th OF type. Instead, we get a LH version of G Gonzalez who is raking at AA who needs to learn to LIFT the ball to have power before his production craters as a hard hitting, ground ball bat. But the potential is certainly there. And he's off to a good start at Wichita. Villoria only needs mention as the Twins Latin scouts are familiar with him.

5] Correa for NOTHING but a 26yo low A and salary relief means NOTHING. The debate might continue for years to come. Paying $10M for the next few years falls on Jim Pohlad to make this deal. It ONLY makes sense in the long run if they actually spend the freed up $20M.

6] Castro for Gallagher makes some sense. Gallagher has a variety of pitches, but doesn't dominate with any of them. But he's a 2024 rookie at AA. That's kind of crazy. Solid college numbers but not amazing. Good length. There's potential there. Probably more than Armstrong, also brought on board. One future BP candidate and one that had a shot to remain as a ML starter potentially. 

BOTH maybe the next Jax, Sands, etc in a couple of seasons? There are some good arms behind them.

7] Taj Bradley for Jax. I HATED this trade and still question it. Jax, despite his trade request after speaking with Correa and being frustrated with the RED deadline day, didn't have to be moved. Despite a frustrating season, his peripherals showed he was still throwing well. He would have been the closer in 2026 for the Twins.

Meanwhile, the young and talented Bradley had been regressing for the Rays. Did the Twins really see Jax going downward? Did they see the upside in Bradley that Tampa didn't see in Ryan?

I'm a little neutral on this deal at the moment.

8] I hated Varland to Toronto at the deadline and I still dislike it weeks later. But I hate it less with time to reflect. Varland could have been the top setup man, and potential closer, for 3-5yrs for the Twins. INSTEAD, they get a mediocre LH OF/1B with SOME potential and a LHP with limited experience that should STILL be in AA. 

9] Duran for Abel and Tait. Let's start with the good. Abel has been a top 100 prospect for some time now. He's got great stuff, but has fought control issues. He's got top of the rotation potential. 

Tait might just be the best MILB catching prospect in MLB. He's got a strong arm and a quality LH bat that might produce 30 HR power. Even IF he can't t stay behind the dish...unlikely at this point...he'd still be a hell of a 1B!

Reports are they could have had Aiden Miller, a multi talented SS who reportedly can't stick at SS and might be moving to 3B or elsewhere.  But the Twins chose the POTENTIAL of Tait instead. That might be debatable a couple years from now. 

I just went through EVERY trade and their return...questionable or not...and the ONLY acquired prospects that might be considered MAJOR LEAGUE READY would include Abel, Outman, Roden, and Bradley. 

That's 4 possible early return players of 12 as Mikulski was really for paperwork only in the Correa deal.

And Outman is an IMMEDIATE DFA, OR Keirsey,  take your pick. Outman was a remote flier of "any chance he figures it out with a change of scenery at 28yo after 2 really bad years". Considering Stewart was hurt again shortly after the trade...and early reports Outman was PART of a trade for Stewart initially, this was really a wash of hope for both sides.

I don't have a ton of faith in Roden...I see him as a solid bench piece at best...but do we just dismiss his MILB career so soon after struggling as a rookie after only 153 PA?

 Is Abel the next Duran? Would that actually be a loss when we also gained Taint as our next cather of the future? I'm talking long term.

I just think there's a lot to decompress at this point. I'm still not sure the Twins or lost anything at this point. 

While I'm still NOT a fan of the RED DAY that was the trade deadline, I think the OP's idea of a bust for "ready players" is way out of line. 

Again, Outman is already out, barring some unexpected turnaround at AAA in 2026 if he stays with the Twins.

So after the dust has settled, really the ONLY 3 players brought back in trades to provide any sort of immediate help...this season or next...were Roden, Abel, and Bradley.

We can debate at length whether Roden has a shot...even if he gets his game together...in the OF or 1B considering Wallner, Jenkins, and Rodriguez, amongst others. (MAYBE 1B is an option).

And we can talk at length about the STUFF and potential of Abel and Bradley and their futures. 

But honestly, those are REALLY the only 3 prospects back that might provide immediate dividends. So the OP is really incorrect in intent, if not perspective. 

As much as anyone can bash Falvey and the FO, or hate the trades and returns, they actually made these moves mostly with 2-3 years from now in regard to Mendez, Horn, Gallagher, Armstrong, Jimenez, Tait, and Rojas.

Falvey and company may or may not be around to see if these moves turn out. But to their credit, they did so for the future. 

GIVE US YOUR TIRED, YOUR POOR, YOUR HUDDLED MASSES ...

[old nurse]

3 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

It's why it was probably a stupid trade: Stewart had more value to the Twins than he had on the trade market. we emptied out all of our high-leverage relievers and in exchange for Stewart we got a failed prospect who is getting older and needs a lot of fixing to stick in MLB. The expectation of getting more for Stewart was probably wrong, but it's still a bad trade in that they lost value by trading away a player that was more valuable to them for one who is less valuable to everyone.

Risk/reward. If the team can figure out how to. Get Outman back to what he was his rookie year it is a high reward trade. Now the likelihood is small, but more likely than the 48th best prospect in the Dodger organization. In terms of this season, it did not matter if they had Stewart or not. They were not going to make the playoffs. 

[old nurse]

1 hour ago, Woof Bronzer said:

Then don't trade him?

Risk/rewards. If they can get Outman back to what he was his rookie year it is a win. In terms of the outcome of the season, it did not matter if they had Stewart or not at the point they made the trade. 

[AKTwinsFan]

Low cost returns is what he was aiming for. Sure if we had an owner who was invested in the team and not their own outside interests then we'd have traded for some higher talent in return. I still think the Correa trade could have been better if we got Walker in return, since we'd had owed him a little less than just paying $30M of Correas contract and getting a low ceiling player in return. Abel has a little work to do on command and he'll be good.

[Riverbrian]

I have no idea if the return on the trades were good or bad.

The trades will be good if the Twins can turn the return into major league quality talent. They agreed to the deals... the scouting staff... evaluators see something they like, agreed to the deals and are therefore going to give it a go. 

If they can't develop them into major league quality... the trades will not be good. These determinations are going to take time. 

Judging them immediately after the trades is extremely premature. Judging them after 30 some AB's or 20 some innings is also premature. 

It's up to the Minnesota Twins to get the appropriate value out of each player. Let's see how they do. Past is the past... Tomorrow is Tomorrow. 

[joefish]

Fire Gardenhire 

[ashbury]

(deleted)

[Mike Sixel]

4 hours ago, old nurse said:

Risk/reward. If the team can figure out how to. Get Outman back to what he was his rookie year it is a high reward trade. Now the likelihood is small, but more likely than the 48th best prospect in the Dodger organization. In terms of this season, it did not matter if they had Stewart or not. They were not going to make the playoffs. 

It was a terrible trade. No one that strikes out that much is fixable. 

[old nurse]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

It was a terrible trade. No one that strikes out that much is fixable. 

Outman’s K% in his rookie year was 31 percent. Rooker’s first full season in Oakland he was at 32%. He is now down to 21%

[Woof Bronzer]

18 minutes ago, old nurse said:

Outman’s K% in his rookie year was 31 percent. Rooker’s first full season in Oakland he was at 32%. He is now down to 21%

Well now I know there are at least 2 people on Planet Earth who would have traded a decent MLB reliever for the ghost of James Outman's rookie season.  

[old nurse]

14 hours ago, Woof Bronzer said:

Well now I know there are at least 2 people on Planet Earth who would have traded a decent MLB reliever for the ghost of James Outman's rookie season.  

Did you miss noticing that Stewart has not thrown many innings the last 5-6 years? Decent when available is far different than decent. Dealing a player when they still have a little value is better than paying for their medical bills. So is the return for Stewart a decent one? The chances of Outman being a regular starter are greater than Rayne Doncons’ chance of being a regular starter.  If you can find a reliever who has pitched about to the same level of effectiveness as Stewart and as few of innings that was traded for more than an Outman type player or prospects that never saw the major leagues, let the world know . Puk was traded. He pitched about as effectively as Stewart and has similar numbers but has been healthier. Puk brought back 2 prospects. Will they be major leagues players? By the time the answer is known, the Miami fans will have forgotten about Puk.  Do players get better in a different system? The team from West Sacramento has a history of players turning their career around.  Harrison Bader certainly did better here than in his  years in New York.  The change of scenery lottery tickets might be a better play than low level prospects. 

[Riverbrian]

Outman: 63 AB's - .642 OPS. 

Brooks Lee: 437 AB's - .659 OPS 

Vazquez: 178 AB's - .498 OPS 

We will find out if Outman was a good investment down the road. 

For those already convinced it was a bad trade . Hey they could have traded Stewart to the Rangers for Michael Helman. He's the new everyday CF in Texas. Currently leads the entire Rangers team in OPS.

Helman: 55 AB's - .928 OPS. 

 

 

[Riverbrian]

Many people wanted the Twins to sell.

More accurately... Many Many Many people. They didn't just type sell on Twinsdaily. They typed Sell Sell Sell. 

I assume that typing sell 3 times is for emphasis and would speak to the desired degree of the sale. 

Guess What

They Sold

[RpR]

3 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

Many people wanted the Twins to sell.

More accurately... Many Many Many people. They didn't just type sell on Twinsdaily. They typed Sell Sell Sell. 

I assume that typing sell 3 times is for emphasis and would speak to the desired degree of the sale. 

Guess What

They Sold

Bravo!

[bunsen82]

@Matthew Taylor

This is why I was surprised at claiming so many players were bust after a few games.  Both Mick Abel and Taj Bradley ended on a strong note.  Was the ERA great no,  did they get wins  no,  However it appears for Abel it does appear he was able to stop tipping his pitches judging by his Phillies game.  That alone is a massive improvement.  For Bradley - its a multi level re-tool.  Adjusting his arm slot for better stuff,  re-implementing the splitter and working on and adding a slider. The other thing is teaching him the process to be a professional pitcher.  Doing the homework, putting in the extra work and improving his work ethic.  It is tough to get by just on talent at the MLB level and that is what he had been trying to do.  Ultimately the Rays gave up on Bradley because he was unwilling to make adjustments or improve the work ethic.  For the Twins based on initial results it is very promising and he appears willing to adjust.   It does raise a few questions of long term viability, but the arm talent on both Abel and Bradley is undeniable.  Abel bookended his season with 2 great performances that show his potential.  The middle was rough.  Abel when he has control (and not tipping pitches) has the stuff to rack up a lot of strikeouts.  Same with Bradley.  For both the goal is lowering the Whip a bit more which minimizes the damage when they inevitably give up some home runs.  

They are both work in progresses,  with the offseason to continue to refine the progress they have made.  In either case, as I have stated I was not worried about a handful of starts at the end of the season.  I wanted to see improvement, and see if their quality of stuff was improving.  Both made improvements in the last month and showed the upside they both have.  1 or both could both fail,  or both could end up being #2 or #3 pitchers for the Twins.  All in all if 1 of those 2 could reach their potential it would make the trade deadline worth it - ignoring the return of the rest of the players.  

[bunsen82]

@Matthew Taylor - Its time for another bump.   Bradley's stuff in his 1st outing was the 2nd best of all starters.   Today he put in a great outing to lead the Twins to a win.  

This spring Abels stuff has looked great.  Now he had some trouble locating in a piggyback performance but I still have extremely high hopes for his progress this year.  

Roden looked strong in spring training as well - he just needs an opportunity (ie Larnach).