Byron Buxton, in Uncharted Territory

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of © Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images

After a double and a triple Wednesday night, Byron Buxton is now slugging an even 1.000 during his seven-game hitting streak. He's come back to Earth very slightly from the heights he reached around the All-Star break, but he's still batting .273/.333/.559 for the season. He'll get to 30 home runs for the first time, and he's already 21-for-21 on stolen base attempts. It's been a phenomenal season, right at an age (31) where it becomes essentially impossible to think of Buxton as a phenom. Now, he's something more, although also something sadder: the fearless lion of the lineup, but for a truly terrible team.

Playing out the string with the most depressing Twins team in several years, Buxton has made it through two separate stints on the injured list without letting either stretch or stop his march toward new career landmarks for durability. The only season in which he qualified for the batting title was 2017, when he was 23, but he's well on the way to doing so again this year. He won't match the number of games he played or the number of innings he spent in center field in that season, but he's already beyond the numbers he accumulated in any season since.

Not counting 2017, Buxton's 767 innings in center field last year were the most he'd played. This season, he's already at 840, and will surely eclipse 900. It's not just how much he's played, though, but how much his success has given him to do.

Buxton has reached base 156 times this year, including times reaching on error. Here's how many times he'd reached in each previous season of his career:

• 2015: 37
• 2016: 97
• 2017: 163
• 2018: 18
• 2019: 94
• 2020: 37
• 2021: 89
• 2022: 121
• 2023: 104
• 2024: 132

While watching Buxton slide headfirst (alas, out) into home plate in the fifth inning Wednesday night, I was struck by the thought that he's surely slid dozens more times this year than in any of those other years. He's spent more of his long, fluid strides covering ground in center and more of them wheeling around the bases. He's swung at 872 pitches, nearly 100 more than he did last year—which had been his post-2017 high-water mark. And that doesn't count the Home Run Derby or the All-Star Game.

Counting each rep—each swing, each rounding of the bases, each throw, each mile covered in the outfield—is vital to the modern game. When we do so, it's clear that Buxton is taking on a volume of work that far exceeds what he's done in the past.

That's not a bad thing, and the team doesn't need to shut him down or anything. It's just jarring to see a player whom the team had always handled with kid gloves, running all over the diamond each day at the end of a dead season. Buxton runs the bases so hard, swings so hard, and puts his body on the line for fly balls so unreservedly that it's impossible not to think about the workload piling up, even as one watches him thrive.

It's possible Buxton will see more time as the DH down the stretch. The Twins could use a look at some of the other players in the mix for outfield playing time in 2026, including Austin Martin and James Outman. Either way, though, Buxton is stretching to a level of work he's never put his body through before—at least not this version of his body. It's been fun to watch him dominate on the field, and he's the only thing animating the team as it slouches toward the offseason. For the good of the team in 2026 and beyond, though, it might be wise to scale back his playing time in subtle ways over the final 20 games or so.

 

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[In My La Z boy]

I've lost track of his contract incentives? Based on his projected stats, how much will we be paying him this year? Let's hope Atlanta doesn't come calling for him this winter 🙏

[Ricky Vaughn]

I would love to see him play in a world series for the Twins. I don't see that happening in the years he has left to play. I hope he approves a trade to a team with a real shot getting him in one. (just not the Yankees)

[jmlease1]

He looks great, and he's the best reason (and one of the only reasons) to watch the Twins finish out this depressing season.

I love Byron Buxton. I'm thrilled that he's finally able to play healthy and pain-free and do all the things that have made him one of the most exciting Twins in franchise history.

Last night's game ended in disappointment once again, but watching Buck cruise for a triple and double was delightful. He can make the awesome look easy.

[ashbury]

It's been fun this season to occasionally go to his b-r.com page and click the sort link for each of his counting stats.  He won't reach his major-league highs set in 2017 in several things like games played or at bats.  But to my pleasant surprise, he has eclipsed his own personal best in Runs Scored by a healthy margin, sitting at 83 this morning.  RBIs at 72, ditto, personal best.  He's not going to reach 100 in either of those two categories, due mostly to some time away from the field but also in part to a pretty sub-par offense surrounding him.  He just topped his personal best in home runs, as mentioned in the article - somehow he's traded some doubles (which he's a bit low on this season) for homers, generally a worthwhile swap because he doesn't have to depend on the next hitter to drive him in.  He'll likely establish a new personal high in walks before the season is over, and without topping his career high in strikeouts.

All in all this is the season we were hoping for a decade ago - a year that would have left us expecting even better things to come, instead of representing what could turn out to be a career-year in a career full of disappointment if not downright tragedy.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

The Buck Truck is delivering the groceries.

[IndianaTwin]

2 hours ago, In My La Z boy said:

I've lost track of his contract incentives? Based on his projected stats, how much will we be paying him this year? Let's hope Atlanta doesn't come calling for him this winter 🙏

He's at 456 plate appearances with 22 games to go. Here's what he'd get on top of his $15 1/7 million. Getting to 533 plate appearances seems very attainable. I suspect he'll make at least a few MVP ballots, though I don't know if he'll get to top 10. 

[IndianaTwin]

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

It's been fun this season to occasionally go to his b-r.com page and click the sort link for each of his counting stats.  He won't reach his major-league highs set in 2017 in several things like games played or at bats.  But to my pleasant surprise, he has eclipsed his own personal best in Runs Scored by a healthy margin, sitting at 83 this morning.  RBIs at 72, ditto, personal best.  He's not going to reach 100 in either of those two categories, due mostly to some time away from the field but also in part to a pretty sub-par offense surrounding him.  He just topped his personal best in home runs, as mentioned in the article - somehow he's traded some doubles (which he's a bit low on this season) for homers, generally a worthwhile swap because he doesn't have to depend on the next hitter to drive him in.  He'll likely establish a new personal high in walks before the season is over, and without topping his career high in strikeouts.

All in all this is the season we were hoping for a decade ago - a year that would have left us expecting even better things to come, instead of representing what could turn out to be a career-year in a career full of disappointment if not downright tragedy.

I've been doing some of the same and it's been fun to watch.

Here's another tidbit. He's now at 29.4 bWAR, with 4.6 on the season (so far). The Twins career leader board is: 

63.8: Carew
60.6: Killebrew
55.6: Mauer
51.1: Puckett
43.1: Oliva
38.6: Hrbek
38.0: Knoblauch
34.1: Allison
29.4: Buxton

With a bit more than three years left on his contract, he has a legitimate chance of passing Oliva. Particularly with the way he has persevered, I'd love to see him get to the point on the list where a 25 gets hung among the retired numbers. If that happens, I hope there's more focus on what he's done than on what could have been. 

(And given that the next outfielder on the list is Hunter at 26.4, followed by Tovar at 25.9 and Kepler at 20.5, I'd say he's worked himself close to the all-time Twins team in an outfield including Puckett and Oliva. Another season like this and he passes Allison.)

 

[Doctor Gast]

With Buxton raking like he has these last 2 years, add to the disappointment of Falvey's not being able to add to our great '23 core. Instead, he chipped away at it & did nothing to replace the lost value. With minor essential additions, we could have really gone far in the post-season the last 2 years for Buxton, despite Baldelli.

[old nurse]

4 hours ago, Ricky Vaughn said:

I would love to see him play in a world series for the Twins. I don't see that happening in the years he has left to play. I hope he approves a trade to a team with a real shot getting him in one. (just not the Yankees)

• Annual MVP Bonuses:
  1st: $8M
  2nd: $7M
  3rd: $6M
  4th: $5M
  5th: $4M
  6th-10th: $3M
• Plate Appearances
  $500,000 each for 502, 533, 567, 600, 625
• 2022-2026: Full No Trade Clause
• 2027-2028: 5-team trade list. 

[USAFChief]

2 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

I've been doing some of the same and it's been fun to watch.

Here's another tidbit. He's now at 29.4 bWAR, with 4.6 on the season (so far). The Twins career leader board is: 

63.8: Carew
60.6: Killebrew
55.6: Mauer
51.1: Puckett
43.1: Oliva
38.6: Hrbek
38.0: Knoblauch
34.1: Allison
29.4: Buxton

With a bit more than three years left on his contract, he has a legitimate chance of passing Oliva. Particularly with the way he has persevered, I'd love to see him get to the point on the list where a 25 gets hung among the retired numbers. If that happens, I hope there's more focus on what he's done than on what could have been. 

(And given that the next outfielder on the list is Hunter at 26.4, followed by Tovar at 25.9 and Kepler at 20.5, I'd say he's worked himself close to the all-time Twins team in an outfield including Puckett and Oliva. Another season like this and he passes Allison.)

 

Another point in favor of throwing WAR (both versions) in the dustbin of history.

For example, There is absolutely no way Byron Buxton has been worth more to the Twins than Torii Hunter.

[jmlease1]

4 hours ago, Ricky Vaughn said:

I would love to see him play in a world series for the Twins. I don't see that happening in the years he has left to play. I hope he approves a trade to a team with a real shot getting him in one. (just not the Yankees)

I hope he never leaves and plays his full career in MN and goes down in Twins history as a beloved player. (I think he should go down in history as a beloved player even if he leaves, but some people get mad about it. what's crazy is it seems like equal numbers seem mad that he keeps saying that this is his home and he never wants to go anywhere else)

Regardless of what happens, I'm going to remember Buck for the unbelievable catches, the thrill of him legging out a triple, the awesome homers, and watching opposing defenses panic as he turns on the jets for a "routine" play and makes it into something more.

Love watching that dude play. Was at the game last night and it sucked having them blow the game in the 9th...but Buck was worth watching all game. Made hard catches look easy. Made a ton of catches. racked up another triple (the most consistently exciting play in baseball), and tried to give us hope with a double in the 9th.

[Road trip]

47 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Another point in favor of throwing WAR (both versions) in the dustbin of history.

For example, There is absolutely no way Byron Buxton has been worth more to the Twins than Torii Hunter.

Hm...

Yes, I'll take Torii over the course of his career because of his durability.  He had a long stretch of years in the 2000s where he was utterly reliable and consistent, even if he was never in MVP discussions.  It also helped that he had plenty of good teammates to help carry the load, and the Twins almost always contended or won the Central in that era, even if they could never advance further.

But peak Buxton is special, on the few years where we got peak Buxton.  He's been a better defender and a vastly better base runner, even though Hunter was no slouch in either category.  I think Buxton's also a better hitter at his peak, relative to the league. Torii never really had a year quite like Buxton's 2025.  Buxton's teammates... well, other than a couple of years they have been a mixed bag at best.

"Worth more" is somewhat subjective I guess, and has to be taken in the context of team results vs just individual stats.  Yes, I kinda agree with you that I think Torii was worth more (so far), but I don't think its a slam dunk, and it isn't really Buxton's fault that this year's Twins team is very bad.

Both of them are sitting behind Kirby for CF on the All Time Twins team anyway..

[Western SD Fan]

I always love using this tool for a comparison.  This covers Torii's time with the Twins (1997-2007) vs Buxton's time. Both are actually at 11 seasons with the Twins, so this is a cleaner comparison.  I didn't consider Hunter's last year with the Twins (2015) as it was basically a retirement tour, which explains the difference in WAR from the poster above.  I forgot how terrible of a season Torii had in 2015 as I was nostalgic that he had come back to Minnesota.  Someone can look it up, but I believe both Target Field and the Metrodome play fairly true in that there wasn't an apparent bias toward the pitcher or the hitter.  I agree that this may be a case where the WAR is deceiving in comparison to their respective careers. 

If I had to guess on why Buxton's WAR is higher, I would have to suggest (subjectively) that:

1.  Buxton's defensive metrics are better although he doesn't have as many Gold Gloves, likely due to his injury history keeping him from qualifying for the award.

2.  As WAR is explained, it is a comparison to league average, the BR WAR is explained here:  Position Player WAR Calculations and Details | Baseball-Reference.com. Many of Torii's statistics were accumulated before MLB actually was serious about eliminating steroids from the game and probably diluted his WAR accumulation as he was deemed closer to average than Buxton has been.

3.  A couple of defenses for Buxton.  One is that it appears that he hits HR's a higher clip than Hunter did which would improve his OPS+ numbers and likely WAR.  Another is the fact that if Buxton could have bounced baseballs off of that Metrodome turf, it's possible his BA would be higher as he would have beat out all those high choppers that he would have created on the Dome turf.

4.  Finally, I would say that Torii, while a difference maker, had a lot more help in the lineup from an emerging era in Twins baseball compared to Buxton, who has had to languish with a lot of bad teams where it appeared he was the only piston firing in the lineup, when he was healthy.  Hunter had a better cast that included Mauer, Morneau, Koskie, Cuddyer, Shannon Stewart, and Jacque Jones, and the rest of the Piranhas.  Buxton had Mauer (still producing), Dozier, Plouffe, Kepler, Polanco, Correa, Nelson Cruz, and Donaldson.  While the players that Buxton would have in the lineups were decent at times, they weren't as consistent or stuck around as long as the teammates that Torii had (Donaldson, Cruz) or were nearly as injured as Buxton (Correa).

[HerbieFan]

Along with Luke Keaschall and Joe Ryan, one of the (very) few reasons to watch this team.

[IndianaTwin]

4 hours ago, Western SD Fan said:

I always love using this tool for a comparison.  This covers Torii's time with the Twins (1997-2007) vs Buxton's time. Both are actually at 11 seasons with the Twins, so this is a cleaner comparison.  I didn't consider Hunter's last year with the Twins (2015) as it was basically a retirement tour, which explains the difference in WAR from the poster above.  I forgot how terrible of a season Torii had in 2015 as I was nostalgic that he had come back to Minnesota.  Someone can look it up, but I believe both Target Field and the Metrodome play fairly true in that there wasn't an apparent bias toward the pitcher or the hitter.  I agree that this may be a case where the WAR is deceiving in comparison to their respective careers. 

If I had to guess on why Buxton's WAR is higher, I would have to suggest (subjectively) that:

1.  Buxton's defensive metrics are better although he doesn't have as many Gold Gloves, likely due to his injury history keeping him from qualifying for the award.

2.  As WAR is explained, it is a comparison to league average, the BR WAR is explained here:  Position Player WAR Calculations and Details | Baseball-Reference.com. Many of Torii's statistics were accumulated before MLB actually was serious about eliminating steroids from the game and probably diluted his WAR accumulation as he was deemed closer to average than Buxton has been.

3.  A couple of defenses for Buxton.  One is that it appears that he hits HR's a higher clip than Hunter did which would improve his OPS+ numbers and likely WAR.  Another is the fact that if Buxton could have bounced baseballs off of that Metrodome turf, it's possible his BA would be higher as he would have beat out all those high choppers that he would have created on the Dome turf.

4.  Finally, I would say that Torii, while a difference maker, had a lot more help in the lineup from an emerging era in Twins baseball compared to Buxton, who has had to languish with a lot of bad teams where it appeared he was the only piston firing in the lineup, when he was healthy.  Hunter had a better cast that included Mauer, Morneau, Koskie, Cuddyer, Shannon Stewart, and Jacque Jones, and the rest of the Piranhas.  Buxton had Mauer (still producing), Dozier, Plouffe, Kepler, Polanco, Correa, Nelson Cruz, and Donaldson.  While the players that Buxton would have in the lineups were decent at times, they weren't as consistent or stuck around as long as the teammates that Torii had (Donaldson, Cruz) or were nearly as injured as Buxton (Correa).

I’m struck by the difference in OPS+. Over his career, Hunter was essentially average as a hitter. He had two years in the lower 120s (123 and 124), so take out those two and he was slightly below average for the most of his career.

By contrast, Buxton has had periods when he’s been amazing. He has five years where his OPS+ is better than Hunter’s best year. The issue is the difference in games played.

[BrokenCompass]

16 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

He's at 456 plate appearances with 22 games to go. Here's what he'd get on top of his $15 1/7 million. Getting to 533 plate appearances seems very attainable. I suspect he'll make at least a few MVP ballots, though I don't know if he'll get to top 10. 

Thanks for sharing. 

I absolutely think he'll get a Top 10 nod for MVP. I think it's a lock, frankly. 

[IndianaTwin]

2 hours ago, BrokenCompass said:

Thanks for sharing. 

I absolutely think he'll get a Top 10 nod for MVP. I think it's a lock, frankly. 

He may indeed. Fangraphs has him seventh among hitters. Skubal and Crochet are also above him, though some writers discount pitchers. Aside from Pena, he's got at least 100 plate appearances fewer than any of the other Top 10 hitters, so he may get penalized for that. 

It would be great to see him get it. 

[Jeff K]

16 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

I hope he never leaves and plays his full career in MN and goes down in Twins history as a beloved player. (I think he should go down in history as a beloved player even if he leaves, but some people get mad about it. what's crazy is it seems like equal numbers seem mad that he keeps saying that this is his home and he never wants to go anywhere else)

Regardless of what happens, I'm going to remember Buck for the unbelievable catches, the thrill of him legging out a triple, the awesome homers, and watching opposing defenses panic as he turns on the jets for a "routine" play and makes it into something more.

Love watching that dude play. Was at the game last night and it sucked having them blow the game in the 9th...but Buck was worth watching all game. Made hard catches look easy. Made a ton of catches. racked up another triple (the most consistently exciting play in baseball), and tried to give us hope with a double in the 9th.

Great job putting into words exactly  how I feel about Byron.  He is an electrifying player and certainly appears to be a darned good guy.  He has been my favorite Twins since he came up.

[jmlease1]

3 hours ago, BrokenCompass said:

Thanks for sharing. 

I absolutely think he'll get a Top 10 nod for MVP. I think it's a lock, frankly. 

He deserves it, but the team's El Stinko could leave him out of it. Sadly, if he hits more bonuses, I'm sure the Cheap Pohlads will use it as an excuse to lower the payroll more. ("We have to make sure we have room to pay Buxton's incentives! We can't possibly increase payroll with this expense hanging over our heads!" - Joe Pohlad, probably)

[BrokenCompass]

1 hour ago, IndianaTwin said:

He may indeed. Fangraphs has him seventh among hitters. Skubal and Crochet are also above him, though some writers discount pitchers. Aside from Pena, he's got at least 100 plate appearances fewer than any of the other Top 10 hitters, so he may get penalized for that. 

It would be great to see him get it. 

Yeah, he may get penalized. 

On the flip side, he's BYRON BUXTON and I think the season that he's put together on a very bad Minnesota team will actually charm the socks off of many of the voters. 

To see him realize this type of season after what he's been through in his career may give him an extra boost in the voting. 

[DJL44]

11 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

I’m struck by the difference in OPS+. Over his career, Hunter was essentially average as a hitter. He had two years in the lower 120s (123 and 124), so take out those two and he was slightly below average for the most of his career.

By contrast, Buxton has had periods when he’s been amazing. He has five years where his OPS+ is better than Hunter’s best year. The issue is the difference in games played.

Torii was a late bloomer. He played 11 seasons for the Twins (but only technically, he had 0 plate appearances in his first season) but only 7 of them were productive. Torii's two best seasons were with the Angels, in fact his WAR for the Angels is 20.7 in 5 seasons vs his Twins WAR of 27.1 in 10 seasons.

Lining up by best 10 seasons

BB 5.0 4.9 4.5 3.9 3.6 3.0 2.1 1.7 0.7 0.3

TH 4.7 4.2 3.9 3.8 3.5 3.3 3.1 0.8 0.2 0.0

Buxton's 4.5 WAR season is now, and it keeps going up. His 2.1 WAR season was the pandemic-shortened 2020.

The other thing you're seeing is how much the run-scoring environment matters.

[IndianaTwin]

1 hour ago, BrokenCompass said:

Yeah, he may get penalized. 

On the flip side, he's BYRON BUXTON and I think the season that he's put together on a very bad Minnesota team will actually charm the socks off of many of the voters. 

To see him realize this type of season after what he's been through in his career may give him an extra boost in the voting. 

I don't think the subjective component carries as much weight as it once did (Less "He was a leader on a team that came out of nowhere."), but I can't imagine it still doesn't come into play. Voters won't admit this, but I wonder if they will also have a subtle mindset of wanting to help him get the bonus to spite the ownership. 

 

[jmlease1]

18 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Another point in favor of throwing WAR (both versions) in the dustbin of history.

For example, There is absolutely no way Byron Buxton has been worth more to the Twins than Torii Hunter.

Hunter's durability matters, but he's never had the ceiling that Buxton has. Torii never put up an OPS+ over 130; Buxton has done it 4 times. (as noted elsewhere: Torii was a better hitter in CA than in MN)

It's not just about WAR. Hunter was a very good and occasionally great player who was durable and remarkable for staying consistently very good well into his 30's. Buxton is a great player who has battled injuries for his entire career. Hunter also piled up Gold Gloves during an era where they were still struggling to evaluate defense and kept giving it to the same guys year after year. Or do you really think Torii deserved all of those? Remember this was the era that Jeter won a bunch of GG's, and he was literally never the best defensive SS in the AL by any standard other than "he's the famous Yankee"