Question of the week: is the Twins payroll going to be over or under $100m in 2026?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Dan Hayes speculated (but could not confirm) that the Twins' payroll may dip below $100m. Do you believe this to be true?

[jaimedude]

I mean it looks like Pohlads are content to play studio baseball again and not draw any fans. If I were to guess I would say yes. 

[USAFChief]

"Will the Twins have a payroll over or under $100 million in 2026?:

 

This seems like an easy one:

 

Yes.

[farmerguychris]

Far under is my guess.  

[The Great Hambino]

Until they take one single action that suggests they are not gutting it to the core, I will continue to assume they are gutting it to the core.  Because every action they've taken so far points to gutting it to the core.

To play devil's advocate with myself, I suppose you could argue that not trading Ryan offers a slim chance that they aren't taking this route (Lopez and Ober were injured at the deadline so there was no action available to be taken in either direction).  But I think they held firm on their price for Ryan since it could be argued that the offseason provides a better trade market for starting pitching than the deadline (whereas the trade deadline may be a better time to trade relievers).  So I'm not giving them credit for retaining Ryan until he shows up to spring training.

[RpR]

Over.

[Mike Sixel]

Under.

[Vanimal46]

1 hour ago, The Great Hambino said:

Until they take one single action that suggests they are not gutting it to the core, I will continue to assume they are gutting it to the core.  Because every action they've taken so far points to gutting it to the core.

To play devil's advocate with myself, I suppose you could argue that not trading Ryan offers a slim chance that they aren't taking this route (Lopez and Ober were injured at the deadline so there was no action available to be taken in either direction).  But I think they held firm on their price for Ryan since it could be argued that the offseason provides a better trade market for starting pitching than the deadline (whereas the trade deadline may be a better time to trade relievers).  So I'm not giving them credit for retaining Ryan until he shows up to spring training.

As they should! Continue the purge until the rotten stench from the last 2 seasons is gone. It wouldn’t surprise me if many of our players set to hit FA after 2026 or 2027 are traded this offseason. 

[Parfigliano]

12 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

As they should! Continue the purge until the rotten stench from the last 2 seasons is gone. It wouldn’t surprise me if many of our players set to hit FA after 2026 or 2027 are traded this offseason. 

Falvey and Rocco will be with TC ensuring the rotten stench remains.

[jaimedude]

Twins should ask themselves this. Who is gonna pay 50 dollars a month to watch AA or AAA baseball on TV, let alone buy tickets. If they want a future of contending they build not gut the franchise further.  IF they want to gut  fanbase by not even trying to be competitive they will trade Joe Ryan and Pablo Lopez. Instead they should add to the rotation not gut it further. That and add a legitimate 1st basemen.  People still care at this point but are starting to lose interest.  You add one right handed bat that drives in runs, you change the whole line-up as then they start seeing decent pitches to hit. They have building blocks why go in full tank mode. Pablo and Joe are pretty good starting pitchers. 

[Major League Ready]

3 hours ago, jaimedude said:

Twins should ask themselves this. Who is gonna pay 50 dollars a month to watch AA or AAA baseball on TV, let alone buy tickets. If they want a future of contending they build not gut the franchise further.  IF they want to gut  fanbase by not even trying to be competitive they will trade Joe Ryan and Pablo Lopez. Instead they should add to the rotation not gut it further. That and add a legitimate 1st basemen.  People still care at this point but are starting to lose interest.  You add one right handed bat that drives in runs, you change the whole line-up as then they start seeing decent pitches to hit. They have building blocks why go in full tank mode. Pablo and Joe are pretty good starting pitchers. 

I would prefer they ask themselves how they can build something much better than the mediocrity we have been watching the last 5 years.  They could appease fans by keeping this mess together or they can do what's necessary to build a team with a legit shot.

[MGX]

To answer this or any other question regarding the Twins current or future status you have to look at how this team is managed from Ownership, to front office to the on field manager. The way things look right now nothing is changing with those three areas so the type of team that is put on the field won't change either. Sadly until those things change we'll see the same type of team as we've seen for roughly the last 10 seasons. 

To answer the question - Will payroll be over or under 100 million. The Pohlads haven't changed in decades so why would they change now. I'll guess under 100 million.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

19 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

I would prefer they ask themselves how they can build something much better than the mediocrity we have been watching the last 5 years.  They could appease fans by keeping this mess together or they can do what's necessary to build a team with a legit shot.

I do not want to watch perpetual mediocrity, but mediocrity is a hell of a lot better than the AAA crap we have been watching post tear down.

It is possible to field a good team and build for the future without a scorched earth rebuild

[Rod Carews Birthday]

49 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

I do not want to watch perpetual mediocrity, but mediocrity is a hell of a lot better than the AAA crap we have been watching post tear down.

It is possible to field a good team and build for the future without a scorched earth rebuild

THIS.  I have lived through several long bouts of terrible and I don't want to do it again.  (Ah, the Ron Coomer Glory Years).  Take what you have, supplement where necessary, and build something better.  Trading everyone just makes us start from a lower point.  It may take years to get back to where we are now, let along contending.  

[Major League Ready]

3 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

I do not want to watch perpetual mediocrity, but mediocrity is a hell of a lot better than the AAA crap we have been watching post tear down.

It is possible to field a good team and build for the future without a scorched earth rebuild

That's fine but we can't complain about not building playoff teams if we are unwilling to do what the most successful teams with similar revenue have done.  We can choose to be the best team we can in 2026 or we can do what's necessary to build a winner but those two things are mutually exclusive.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

8 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

That's fine but we can't complain about not building playoff teams if we are unwilling to do what the most successful teams with similar revenue have done.  We can choose to be the best team we can in 2026 or we can do what's necessary to build a winner but those two things are mutually exclusive.

Are they? How so?

what is it about competing in the future prevents a team from competing now?

[ashbury]

Yes, I believe Hayes made such a speculation.

[Major League Ready]

35 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Are they? How so?

what is it about competing in the future prevents a team from competing now?

They have assets with 2 years of control (Ryan/Lopez/Ober/Larnach)  They can get value for those players for the next 2 years or they can trade them for assets that can contribute for 6-7 years but they can't do both.  If the goal is to build playoff teams, the question becomes will those assets contribute more if kept for the next two years or will they contribute more if they are used to gain assets that will contribute to a new core.  Given I think they have no chance in 2026 and 2027 might not even happen, I think the answer is clear.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

15 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

They have assets with 2 years of control (Ryan/Lopez/Ober/Larnach)  They can get value for those players for the next 2 years or they can trade them for assets that can contribute for 6-7 years but they can't do both.  If the goal is to build playoff teams, the question becomes will those assets contribute more if kept for the next two years or will they contribute more if they are used to gain assets that will contribute to a new core.  Given I think they have no chance in 2026 and 2027 might not even happen, I think the answer is clear.

Now, sure. The house has a couple of studs standing, but pretty much it’s just a basement. If those couple of 2x4 s can get something in trade, might as well.

this isn’t mutually exclusive. It wasn’t an “or” at the trade deadline, but it became a foregone conclusion with a drastic course change.

An incremental approach can do the same thing without watching a horrible team. The dithering of this FO has been so angering.

[Major League Ready]

7 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Now, sure. The house has a couple of studs standing, but pretty much it’s just a basement. If those couple of 2x4 s can get something in trade, might as well.

this isn’t mutually exclusive. It wasn’t an “or” at the trade deadline, but it became a foregone conclusion with a drastic course change.

An incremental approach can do the same thing without watching a horrible team. The dithering of this FO has been so angering.

Some have said that the goal of trading Ryan would be to get another Ryan.  Let's say that's how it plays out and we get a guy exactly like Ryan.  Would you rather have Ryan for 26-27 or the 2nd half of 27, 28, 28, 30, 31, 32, and 2033?   Which player would be more likely to contribute to a playoff run?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

2 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Some have said that the goal of trading Ryan would be to get another Ryan.  Let's say that's how it plays out and we get a guy exactly like Ryan.  Would you rather have Ryan for 26-27 or the 2nd half of 27, 28, 28, 30, 31, 32, and 2033?   Which player would be more likely to contribute to a playoff run?

Before the scorched earth trade deadline Ryan for 26 and 27 had a higher likelihood of contributing to a playoff run than the 11 prospects acquired, one of which might have a chance to maybe become valuable to the major league club some day. One of Bradley or Abel might actually be a legit MLB pitcher.

now? Sure trade away the bits and pieces left over. They traded away 40% of their roster and got back next to nothing.
 

If they’re going to suck, does 65 wins matter more than 60? Nope

so sure, trade Ryan away for a package of prospects of which one of whom might be good someday. In 4 years, they might be a .500 ball club again.

[Major League Ready]

7 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Before the scorched earth trade deadline Ryan for 26 and 27 had a higher likelihood of contributing to a playoff run than the 11 prospects acquired, one of which might have a chance to maybe become valuable to the major league club some day. One of Bradley or Abel might actually be a legit MLB pitcher.

now? Sure trade away the bits and pieces left over. They traded away 40% of their roster and got back next to nothing.
 

If they’re going to suck, does 65 wins matter more than 60? Nope

so sure, trade Ryan away for a package of prospects of which one of whom might be good someday. In 4 years, they might be a .500 ball club again.

I think our principal difference here is probably that I think they had no chance in 2026 even if they had only traded expiring contracts and I think 2027 will be very short or last all together.  They have no 1B and a very mediocre 3B with upside.  LF (Larnach) is mediocre at best.  RF (Wallner) is a good not great hitter and a poor defender.  They have no back-up catcher and no back-up CF and basically no bench.  They have a good pitching SP staff but not elite and they had a good BP but not elite.

The other difference might be that I think their chances of putting together a real contender is to rebuild around the next wave of Keaschall / Jenkins / Culpepper / Tait / Gonzalez and hopefully Lewis.  Plus, whatever they pick-up from trading Ryan/Ober/Lopez which should be significant including a couple impact type prospects.  Plus, a high draft pick for the next 2 years.  I should add Lee still has a chance to be a pretty good player or trade piece.  That's a lot to work with.   Yes, they are prospects but look at how the winning teams with similar revenue have been built.  It's just not possible if their prospects don't succeed.  The previous group have not, and I don't see that changing.   Plus, the window was officially closed when they traded away the BP and we can't unring that bell.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

I think our principal difference here is probably that I think they had no chance in 2026 even if they had only traded expiring contracts and I think 2027 will be very short or last all together.  They have no 1B and a very mediocre 3B with upside.  LF (Larnach) is mediocre at best.  RF (Wallner) is a good not great hitter and a poor defender.  They have no back-up catcher and no back-up CF and basically no bench.  They have a good pitching SP staff but not elite and they had a good BP but not elite.

The other difference might be that I think their chances of putting together a real contender is to rebuild around the next wave of Keaschall / Jenkins / Culpepper / Tait / Gonzalez and hopefully Lewis.  Plus, whatever they pick-up from trading Ryan/Ober/Lopez which should be significant including a couple impact type prospects.  Plus, a high draft pick for the next 2 years.  I should add Lee still has a chance to be a pretty good player or trade piece.  That's a lot to work with.   Yes, they are prospects but look at how the winning teams with similar revenue have been built.  It's just not possible if their prospects don't succeed.  The previous group have not, and I don't see that changing.   Plus, the window was officially closed when they traded away the BP and we can't unring that bell.

Absolutely agreed on the last part. The window isn’t just closed, they traded it away along with the front door.
 

They can’t go back now. All in on the rebuild.

honestly MLR, you were one of the few dissenters of the Correa re-signing, and now you’ve shown more restraint than I would have. 
 

[DocBauer]

So I'm late to this one, but going to give my opinion. 

The Twins had a $130+ payroll in 2025. I don't believe they are going to pay Larnach $5M when they just acquired Roden, and have Jenkins and Rodriguez just about ready to debut. They've also got Gonzalez close from the RH side, with Fedko and Rosario as possibles in the near future as well. 

So that's $90M after expected arbitration increases WITH Lopez and Ryan still on the roster. With the amount of $ coming in from the 2 new minority owners, they either eliminate their debt entirely, or most of it. (Maybe they keep a little debt for tax purposes?)? And do the minority owners get ANY SAY at the table now? Would they really be in favor of investing and then seeing additional cuts and additional fan apathy?

You wouldn't have to be a genius ownership to see fan disgruntlement and rapidly declining attendance.

You could add a BAT, and a couple interesting, bounceback type of pen arms, convert a couple more young arms to the pen, and maybe end up with something half way decent beyond the dumpster fire that is currently the Twins pen.

Even IF they spent $20-25M for a few additions, the payroll maxes out around $120M TOPS. That's $30M+ less than 2025, but you might just offer fans a little hope. And if Lewis, Wallner, and Lee rebound, and you've got Keaschall and a handful of other top prospects ready to debut, the turnstiles might actually turn.

So I'm going to say OVER on the payroll.

But who knows how much influence Joe actually has over the rest of the family.

[Linus]

To me there are two paths: try to compete in 2026, which would clearly require a payroll north of $120 million, or they regroup for 2028 as I believe 2027 will be largely lost. 
 

I believed they could retool and compete in 2026 by trading expiring contracts and maybe Larnach. Since they went way beyond that I’m assuming they are not planning on competing in 2026. That means there is no point in hanging onto López and Ryan. Get a couple near MLB ready bats. If this is the plan payroll will be well below $100 million. I also wouldn’t be surprised if they sold the minority partners on a really low payroll for 2026 which allows all involved to suck $50 million or more in profits in 2026. 

[beckmt]

My payroll feeling is around $60 - $70 million if Buxton decides to stay.  Both Lopez and Ryan will be gone and possibly Ober also (don't think he will get an overpay, but it is possible),  Both Larnach and Wallner should be gone (maybe Wallner stays because he is still cheap (but don't see the upside of him contributing a lot to a winning ballclub)).  2027 looks like a black hole and don't see these owners wanting to be on the hook for any extra money.  This is what it looks like to me in 2026,

C Pereda and Gasper

1B Clemons and someone not on the 40

2b current player playing there now

ss Lee and possibly Culpepper by midyear

3B Lewis  

UT Not currently on the club

OF Buxton, Jenkins, Roden or Outman, Martin, player not on roster

SP SWR, Matthews, Bradley, Ober, player not on roster

RP Funderbuck, Topa, sands, Raya, Laweryton, Adams, 2 not on roster 

This should be somewhere in the 60 million range.  Actually like the on field players better if they can get on and run, because am tired of station to station, and no ability to put the ball in play with runners on base.  

Pitching is who knows, maybe you get lucky.

[MoyBoy74]

Catcher Jeffers and Gasper

1B Clemens and Kyler Fedko (platoon)

2B Keashcall

SS Lee

3B Royce Lewis

LF Austin Martin and Roden (Platoon)

CF Buxton - Outman reserve

RF Wallner, maybe Jenkins

DH Wallner and Others

Starters: Pablo Lopez, Bailey Ober, Woods Richardso, Taj Bradley, Matthews/Festa/Abel

Bullpen: Sands, Topa, Funderburk, plus 5 more. Failed Starters and Free Agents.

After trading Larnach and Ryan to Red Sox for prospect package.

Should be under 100 million. 

[MoyBoy74]

Larnach and Ryan traded to Padres or Red Sox.

 

What would they give us for these 2 players?

 

Keeping Pablo Lopez is a better mentor to young Starters. 

 

[Schmoeman5]

Don't the Twins pay roughly 10 million to Correa for the next 3 years? That goes toward payroll, does it not?

[Riverbrian]

On 8/23/2025 at 4:56 PM, Major League Ready said:

They have assets with 2 years of control (Ryan/Lopez/Ober/Larnach)  They can get value for those players for the next 2 years or they can trade them for assets that can contribute for 6-7 years but they can't do both.  If the goal is to build playoff teams, the question becomes will those assets contribute more if kept for the next two years or will they contribute more if they are used to gain assets that will contribute to a new core.  Given I think they have no chance in 2026 and 2027 might not even happen, I think the answer is clear.

I want to argue this point of yours... but... I... 

Well... 

I can't. 

I've stated a couple of times that I'm torn on the direction that I would take from here.

In my heart... deep in my soul... I think the rotation could be pretty good and it could be built around... I just don't want to tear the rotation down... I want them to build around it and maybe get back quicker than most of us think. 

But my mind using all the logic that I can muster... keeps saying they just haven't finished. It can't be finished... The deadline couldn't have concluded this adjustment. 

Whose left to deal? We don't have a lot of high value trade candidates that return value back other than Ryan, Pablo and maybe Ober.