What are the Twins Getting in New Pitching Prospect Mick Abel?

[Jamie Cameron]

Image courtesy of © Kyle Ross-Imagn Images

Mick Abel is a 6-foot-5 right-handed pitcher. Originally drafted 15th overall by the Phillies in the COVID-shortened 2020 MLB Draft. He’s a prospect with plenty of past hype and a fair amount of fatigue associated with him, having hit a high-water mark of being ranked the 35th-best prospect in the sport by Baseball America before the 2023 season.

Let’s start with the ingredients, because they are exciting. Abel is tall, with a lean frame. It’s a good delivery for me, too, and he’s young for his level—even though it feels like he’s been around forever. There’s an established four-plus pitch mix for Abel, with excellent velocity through his arsenal, a good feel for spin, and close to seven feet of extension. Control, command, and neutralizing lefties in the majors have been the bugaboos, to date.

Abel has looked like a different pitcher in Triple A in 2025. He’s logged 74 innings with a 2.31 ERA (3.55 FIP), managing a healthy 26.6% strikeout rate, and a less-healthy 10.5% walk rate, which is an improvement on 2024. The strike-throwing percentage is hovering between 63-64%; you’d like to see that increase a bit. 

The stuff is good, folks. It’s a fastball thrown 45% of the time that sits at 96 mph; a sinker 15% of the time that sits a tick lower; a power slider thrown 14% of the time that sits 87 mph; and an 82-mph curveball he throws around 22% of the time. There’s a changeup here, too, with negligible usage (around 4%). More to come on that.

Abel had a hard time against lefties in his brief stint in the majors. He pitched 25 innings and gave up six home runs against left-handed hitters. Ouch. What might the Twins do with ingredients and productivity that hasn’t ever quite matched up? I think they’ll try to tweak the shapes of his breaking balls. It’s possible that they add a cutter to his mix, too, and work on his changeup, in service of helping him be more effective against left-handed hitters and enabling the arsenal to play more effectively together.

Where would we slide Abel into Twins prospect lists? This is a little more challenging than with Eduardo Tait. It depends on how you weigh current level versus upside. For me, Abel fits in the cluster of talented arms in the Twins organization who are fringy top-100 prospects. If we assume a top five of Walker Jenkins, Emmanuel Rodriguez, Luke Keaschall, Kaelen Culpepper, Tait (in any order you like), Abel fits in the 6-8 range. I might have Connor Prielipp (currently on two top-100 lists), ahead by a nose. Abel probably gets the nod over Charlee Soto and Dasan Hill, given his prospect pedigree and proximity to the majors.

There’s another lens through which we might assess Abel’s worth to the organization. The Twins have Pablo López and Joe Ryan (hopefully) leading the rotation as playoff-caliber starters. Bailey Ober is a wild card right now, so let’s set him aside. In Abel, David Festa, and Zebby Matthews, the Twins have a trio of top-100 caliber starting pitching prospects (who recently graduated or are about to). You only need one of the three to take a step forward toward being the caliber of pitcher who could start a playoff game for you. The other two fill up the back of the rotation, or, eventually, are high-leverage relievers if that doesn’t work out.

While the Duran trade is tough for fans to process, I think there’s a good chance that in six years, the Twins come out on top in terms of value here (unless the Phillies win the World Series). A solid outcome for Abel would be a reliable, back-end starter, but there’s room here for much more.

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[bunsen82]

Very solid assessment.  I would agree he has a little more upside than Matthews and Festa but more than anything he added another option to hopefully find 1-2 more solid starters out of the 3.   

[Mike Sixel]

I'd probably put him 7th or so, but the risk seems high to me right now. (not Tait level risk, as I think Abel can be a legit RP if he can't be a starter, though this FO waits A LONG TIME to make that transition.....). He's got some really good pitches, but that won't matter if they can't fix the control. I do like they went for ceiling over floor here, that's nice. But I'm not super confident right now. 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Sorry Jamie, your positive take on Abel doesn't fit the narrative that the Twins got hosed in the Duran deal. Getting 2 guys that slot into the top 6 prospects won't work.

Let the follow up bashing from the Miller trade commence.

[LA Vikes Fan]

So you're telling me that we traded Duran for two guys who fit in as roughly our fourth or fifth best prospect (Tait), and our seventh or eighth best prospect (Abel). Wait a minute, I thought we got fleeced and that Falvey crumbled under the weight of the mighty Dave Dombrowski? Soon you're going to tell me that the A's got a much better deal by trading Mason Miller, who was better than Duran last year but not as good this year, and JP Sears, who is a better and more durable starter than Paddack but probably not as good as Ober assuming he is back to his old self, for a really good 18-year-old shortstop prospect and some lottery ticket pitching prospects who might be great relievers in the future or who might be working at McDonald's in five years. That doesn't fit into the FO are bunch of idiots narrative I keep reading. Hmm....

[2wins87]

Feels like a future reliever, though of course I wouldn't advocate moving him to the bullpen too soon.

If he turns into a high-end #3 or better that would be a win, if he turns into a closer several years down the line then the trade is a push until the returns on Tait are in. 

My fear is that there is probably still a decent chance that he turns into another Alcala.  Tantalizing stuff, but ultimately never consistent enough.

[NYCTK]

4 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

So you're telling me that we traded Duran for two guys who fit in as roughly our fourth or fifth best prospect (Tait), and our seventh or eighth best prospect (Abel). Wait a minute, I thought we got fleeced and that Falvey crumbled under the weight of the mighty Dave Dombrowski? Soon you're going to tell me that the A's got a much better deal by trading Mason Miller, who was better than Duran last year but not as good this year, and JP Sears, who is a better and more durable starter than Paddack but probably not as good as Ober assuming he is back to his old self, for a really good 18-year-old shortstop prospect and some lottery ticket pitching prospects who might be great relievers in the future or who might be working at McDonald's in five years. That doesn't fit into the FO are bunch of idiots narrative I keep reading. Hmm....

I do wish they got one more prospect since they had all the power. But we're talking about one that might slot into the 10-15 organization range, and who really cares that badly. 

[Dman]

I don't know how fixable Abel is.  If there is one thing the Twins staff isn't that good at it is fixing control.  I'm looking mainly at relievers but they had issues with Cano, Megil, Hamilton, and others.  Cano went on to pitch very effectively once moved to the Orioles. Megil was an All Star this year with the Brewers. Hamilton pitched well for the Yankee's. They all had control problems with the Twins.  The Twins couldn't get any of those guys going and other teams did.

Maybe Abel is close enough and it is just lefties to worry about. I hope that is the case.  Still I don't have much trust in this staff to fix pitchers with control issues.  Maybe they could steal a pitching coach from the Brewers or something? I am hoping for the best but I don't see see a great track record of success here.

[LastOnePicked]

This is helpful. The return sounded disappointing yesterday - and it may yet be - but I know I sounded off before knowing more of the details. Here's hoping these guys are big 2028-29 contributors.

[bjorks]

The Twins got 2 of the “consensus” top 5 prospects traded in the deal w/KMcD having Tuh-eeet #2. The market shifted when Cubs, Dodgers, Res Sox didn’t become huge buyers.

inwonder with Abel’s delivery of a kick change could work? Abel works up in the zone and that seems to be the thing Falvey/Maki/Rocxo believe in. Hopefully the next (cough cough) group does as well.  But 98 up in the zone works well and that’s what he does.

[tony&rodney]

The Phillies had given up on getting him to add the changeup or harness his control. However, sometimes a change of scenery works and we can hope Abel settles in as a mid to back end rotation starter. He has good stuff but the control and struggles versus LH batters needs to be addressed by the coaching staff.

[saviking]

8 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

The Phillies had given up on getting him to add the changeup or harness his control. However, sometimes a change of scenery works and we can hope Abel settles in as a mid to back end rotation starter. He has good stuff but the control and struggles versus LH batters needs to be addressed by the coaching staff.

I sense the gave up on him is real. Too rated projects that dont turn out are very seldom rehabbed.  

[Original_JB]

My initial thought is "Great, another David West/Ricky Nolasco guy who can't find the plate consistently, but has enough 'stuff' that everyone thinks they can 'fix' him. We will see.

[Otaknam]

If Abel only becomes a back of the rotation starter, liKe SWR, that would be a disappointment with this trade. Tait might be the centerpiece, but he’s 2-3 years away at best. It is interesting that the team is left with a potentially solid starting rotation with some depth. But the offense sputtered all year and unless Larnach and Wallner become more productive I don’t think they will score enough runs. 

[Otaknam]

21 hours ago, Dman said:

I don't know how fixable Abel is.  If there is one thing the Twins staff isn't that good at it is fixing control.  I'm looking mainly at relievers but they had issues with Cano, Megil, Hamilton, and others.  Cano went on to pitch very effectively once moved to the Orioles. Megil was an All Star this year with the Brewers. Hamilton pitched well for the Yankee's. They all had control problems with the Twins.  The Twins couldn't get any of those guys going and other teams did.

Maybe Abel is close enough and it is just lefties to worry about. I hope that is the case.  Still I don't have much trust in this staff to fix pitchers with control issues.  Maybe they could steal a pitching coach from the Brewers or something? I am hoping for the best but I don't see see a great track record of success here.

That’s a fair point. I’m not a fan of getting pitchers with control issues, and, as you point out, they don’t have a great track record of doing so. Hopefully they get it done with Abel. Still, they should have held out for Painter from the Phillies for Duran., IMO. 

[Jasper]

The Twins tore apart their strength but still have the same inconsistent offense more of the same to come unless they give the youngsters a chance.

[TL]

If he becomes a #3 or 4 starter for 4-5 years the Twins will have won this trade handily without even considering what Tait may bring. He’s a good starter prospect who was available because we were offering a stud reliever and he has some question marks.

Getting an upside guy to slot into the rotation soon + a catcher with above average starter potential is good work. 

[TNtwins85]

Abel threw a hell of a game today in his first saints start. 5IP/1H/0R/0ER/2BB/7K. I watched him pitch and he had the Detroit affiliate fooled all day. Hitting corners and getting some swings and misses and weak contact. Made some big bats look foolish. Guys like Trey Sweeney, Justin Henry Malloy, Jace Jung and Akil Badoo. Solid first start for this 23yo Twins acquisition 

[Derojo]

Here's what people don't mention. The Phillies are shooting for the World Series, obviously to win it. The Twins prior to the trade had virtually no chance to reach the World Series in the next two or more years. Why? Our offensive lineup consistently underperformed. It has underperformed every year, even in 2019 when the Y (T)ankees beat us 3-0. (The Tankees are going nowhere this year. Perhaps, maybe, win the first round. If it goes very badly, perhaps out of the wild card race.)

Today, with the prospects in the pipeline late this year, and the next two, we will have a much more potent offensive roster. The Twins roster was far overbalanced toward pitching. More important is to have a team that doesn't underperform while batting. Underperforming teams over several years NEVER win the World Series. Regardless of how it turns out the trade was a win, because now there is a possibility of performing to the talent level or better. Before the trade deadline the Twins were trash on offense. How do I know? They had a thirteen-game winning streak, and were under five hundred at the break. (Classic boom and bust; mostly busted.) Oh, and Mr. Double-play Correa didn't refer to his defense. It referred to being an 0-11 while the bases were loaded this year with the Twins. Correa was the fourth or fifth best Twin on offense, and the offense was weak. Correa has been a clutch defender. Oddly enough, he is not a clutch batter. Clearly, he is on the downside. 

I was born in 59. The Twins played in and won the last World Series in 91. It took thirty-two years till that 91 series. It has taken thirty-four years till today. Enough of this b.s. of merely trying to make the playoffs. The last thing is that the ownership must change or all of this is moot.