Should Derek Falvey Be Trusted to Make Trade Decisions on Griffin Jax, Jhoan Duran, and Joe Ryan?

[Fatbat]

Earl Weaver had a .583 career win percentage and is in the HOF. Baldelli is about 20 years behind him while being on a similar career path 🤔🤪

[Major League Ready]

16 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

I would prefer to resign Joe Ryan.  However, ownership leaves me with serious doubts that will happen.  So let's put it in real life terms:

Do you think Nat fans are sad they dealt two years of Juan Soto for CJ Abrams, MacKenzie Gore, and James Wood?

Now, trades can flop too, but sometimes they are worth doing.  Especially if you know the future of keeping them is bleak.

I would not trade Ryan unless it was this kind of haul.  Wood's production is currently pretty much identical to Soto for $50M less and they got two other very good players.  Let that sink in.  That's a game changer.  The other side of this coin is that they need to trade 1 of Ryan / Lopez or Ober by the end of next year.  Turning over 3 starting pitchers in one year is very poor roster management and to some degree payroll management.  My inclination would be to move Ober but that is probably done this off-season.  Move Paddack for now.

 

[Major League Ready]

I am surprised nobody has brought who traded for Duran and Ryan in the first place.  

[PuckettProtector]

2 hours ago, yeahyabetcha said:

I hope you don’t get injured jumping from bandwagon to bandwagon.

Here we go again. Always some smug solipsistic absolutist staring down their nose at innocuous comments that they like to twist to fuel their "intellectual" narcissism. Are we as fans not allowed to become exhausted with a team that fails to deliver? He already stated he's a die-hard fan but just tired of the product and more entertained by an alternative at the moment. Does he need to repent his sin and say 10 hail yaeahyabetchas? 

I mean, yours is certainly a take. A hot steaming take, but a take nonetheless.

[PuckettProtector]

40 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Penny pinching, home foreclosure Carl told every single Twins fan to go **** themselves 25 years ago, and yet the Pohlads still own the team. So that's just obviously not true. 

If you don't like the ****** product they're producing, and I don't, you can stop consuming it and that doesn't make you a worse person. 

The new owner is going to get an opportunity to win people like me back. Until then, I view the Twins as a fun, ongoing case study that gets absolutely none of my money (outside of the shared revenue from other teams or MLB.TV). 

THIS

[nddan67]

Let him trade the players who are on expiring contracts.  Prospects are just that prospects.  If you are trading pitchers like Ryan, Duran and Jax you need to get back major league players who are good players.  If not keep what we have.

[Nshore]

Pitching is the name of the game, and Ryan, Jax, and Duran are cornerstone pieces of a winner.  No way should they be traded away for suspects, I mean prospects.  It may sound crazy, but I think they still have a chance to squeak into the playoffs.  Keaschall is the type of player, once they get him back, that may give the whole line up a spark.  Falvey should do nothing at the trade deadline.

[Guest]

It's articles like this that keep bringing me back to the insights at the Mogadishu Twins Daily to brighten up my day.  "First, Falvey’s long-term status in Minnesota is uncertain."  So what?  As long as Falvey's getting a paycheck he has the authority of his job.  There's absolutely no evidence Falvey's status is "uncertain," and indeed it's just as likely if not more so that new ownership will want Falvey's continuity at the start, i.e., "it’s entirely plausible that new ownership will want to" maintain the FO's status quo.

And even more laughably laughable is the argument "it's not obvious that Falvey has earned the right to continue leading baseball operations."  Says who?  Falvey was promoted just five months ago to the organization's top job his predecessor held for 23 years.  But, "it's not obvious" Falvey has the right to trade players?  It's as obvious to me as the signature on the paycheck Falvey cashed last week.

[Twins33]

I trust him to sell more much more than I trust him to buy (trade deadline). I’m always fine trading relievers for a haul, but as always it depends on the return. I’m firmly against trading Ryan. 

[dxpavelka]

2 hours ago, yeahyabetcha said:

Any owner that doesn’t “care” about his customers will not be long in the business.  Enjoy the season!!

That's funny.  There's not an owner in sports that cares about his customers.  They care about their bottom lines.  And if you had billions of dollars invested in something, you'd care about the same thing.

[JDubs]

1 hour ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

i can absolutely point blame at a front office that doesn’t cash flow plan the full term of their payroll contracts.

Do you seriously think when they inked Correa the Pohlds had told them they were cutting $30 million from the roster the following year?

[dxpavelka]

56 minutes ago, Nshore said:

Pitching is the name of the game, and Ryan, Jax, and Duran are cornerstone pieces of a winner.  No way should they be traded away for suspects, I mean prospects.  It may sound crazy, but I think they still have a chance to squeak into the playoffs.  Keaschall is the type of player, once they get him back, that may give the whole line up a spark.  Falvey should do nothing at the trade deadline.

Actually a conservative BUY or two wouldn't hurt.  Backup catcher, a right handed bat and a left handed relief arm might all be helpful.

[Wedman13]

1 hour ago, PuckettProtector said:

Here we go again. Always some smug solipsistic absolutist staring down their nose at innocuous comments that they like to twist to fuel their "intellectual" narcissism. Are we as fans not allowed to become exhausted with a team that fails to deliver? He already stated he's a die-hard fan but just tired of the product and more entertained by an alternative at the moment. Does he need to repent his sin and say 10 hail yaeahyabetchas? 

I mean, yours is certainly a take. A hot steaming take, but a take nonetheless.

This response is so classic.  Call someone smug and then attempt to use really deep language to make yourself sound, well, smug.  Yes, we've heard those words and know what they mean.  Just silly, but gave me a good chuckle!

i thought the original post about bandwagon jumping was spot on and hilarious.  You are a fan or you are not.  It doesn't mean you have to agree with or support all decisions (emotionally or financially) but it means you have passion for the team - and don't suddenly switch fandom to that teams biggest rival (yet still follow and comment on this site?).

Now let's go sell if the deal is right.  The value of Duran, Ryan and Jax goes down every single day from here on out.

 

[olerud]

Yes,  100% i trust him especially with pitching prospects!!!!

[hitterscount]

4 hours ago, yeahyabetcha said:

Sorry to hear of your hard feelings towards the team.  I have been a fan since the Calvin owned days.  It has been hard to be a fan many of those years, but I try not to hold it personally against any of their employees.  I also don’t agree with much of Falvey and Rocco’s approach to the game, but also remember they were hired as a reaction to Terry Ryan’s approach.

Ryan and Gardenhire's teams were 100 times more enjoyable to watch. I don't expect to win the WS every year or even make the playoffs every year. But watching the current product on the field is tough, there are long stretches where they appear to just go through the motions and are even bad at that. 

I have zero hard feelings, just checked out on this season when a manager is rewarded for leading one of the worst teams in baseball since last August. It's not that much to ask for clean, sound fundamental baseball and even some situational awareness. 

[DJL44]

31 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

Actually a conservative BUY or two wouldn't hurt.  Backup catcher, a right handed bat and a left handed relief arm might all be helpful.

Buy those in the offseason.

[hitterscount]

20 minutes ago, Wedman13 said:

This response is so classic.  Call someone smug and then attempt to use really deep language to make yourself sound, well, smug.  Yes, we've heard those words and know what they mean.  Just silly, but gave me a good chuckle!

i thought the original post about bandwagon jumping was spot on and hilarious.  You are a fan or you are not.  It doesn't mean you have to agree with or support all decisions (emotionally or financially) but it means you have passion for the team - and don't suddenly switch fandom to that teams biggest rival (yet still follow and comment on this site?).

Now let's go sell if the deal is right.  The value of Duran, Ryan and Jax goes down every single day from here on out.

 

I guess I am missing your point, so I cancelled MLB when Baldelli was extended and can no longer watch every game, won't make another game at Target field so somehow that means I shouldn't follow this site? It's been 12 months of sloppy and uninspired play with a rumor of a potential sale of the team, which appears to be the only way to dump Baldelli and Falvey, and somehow I am a traitor in your view?  None of what I have said is a sign of a bandwagon fanboy... 

[Wedman13]

9 minutes ago, hitterscount said:

I guess I am missing your point, so I cancelled MLB when Baldelli was extended and can no longer watch every game, won't make another game at Target field so somehow that means I shouldn't follow this site? It's been 12 months of sloppy and uninspired play with a rumor of a potential sale of the team, which appears to be the only way to dump Baldelli and Falvey, and somehow I am a traitor in your view?  None of what I have said is a sign of a bandwagon fanboy... 

I don't disagree with anything you are saying regarding fundamentals.  It's hard to watch.  And I think in any walk of life an organization takes on the personality of its leader.  Sometimes the laid back approach -such as Phil Jackson or Joe Torre- works, but only when you have an alpha on the team that demands perfection from others.  Byron is kinda that, Carlos should be that... but neither really seem to be that "jump on my shoulders" guy.  So that's where a manager like Rocco doesn't work.

but getting back on topic, I believe you have to trust falvey, or can him.  The twins have very important assets right now, and whether they stay or go it is a crucial moment.  Regarding trades, I do believe each of their values diminish every single day we have team control.

And... never called you a traitor, I simply found the bandwagon post funny.  I get the frustration.

[yeahyabetcha]

1 hour ago, dxpavelka said:

That's funny.  There's not an owner in sports that cares about his customers.  They care about their bottom lines.  And if you had billions of dollars invested in something, you'd care about the same thing.

Let me rephrase for you.  The owners care about customers showing up for their product.  If they don’t, they likely are losing money.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

1 hour ago, JDubs said:

Do you seriously think when they inked Correa the Pohlds had told them they were cutting $30 million from the roster the following year?

No, and that’s my point of contention. DSP and Falvey should have been planning the scenarios for that to happen.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

1 hour ago, dxpavelka said:

That's funny.  There's not an owner in sports that cares about his customers.  They care about their bottom lines.  And if you had billions of dollars invested in something, you'd care about the same thing.

It’s next to impossible to hit the bottom line, if you don’t hit the top line. Increased sales fixes margin problems alot better than cost cutting.

[yeahyabetcha]

2 hours ago, PuckettProtector said:

Here we go again. Always some smug solipsistic absolutist staring down their nose at innocuous comments that they like to twist to fuel their "intellectual" narcissism. Are we as fans not allowed to become exhausted with a team that fails to deliver? He already stated he's a die-hard fan but just tired of the product and more entertained by an alternative at the moment. Does he need to repent his sin and say 10 hail yaeahyabetchas? 

I mean, yours is certainly a take. A hot steaming take, but a take nonetheless.

I am sorry that I hit such a nerve with you.  You and the previous poster are free to spend your allegiance and cash however you want.  I guess I get tired of the constant postings of how terrible the Pohlad family is, mainly because they have a alot of money.  The ripping of Falvey because many posters think they could do a better job.  And of Rocco because he made a decision that didn’t work out.

[yeahyabetcha]

3 hours ago, NYCTK said:

Penny pinching, home foreclosure Carl told every single Twins fan to go **** themselves 25 years ago, and yet the Pohlads still own the team. So that's just obviously not true. 

If you don't like the ****** product they're producing, and I don't, you can stop consuming it and that doesn't make you a worse person. 

The new owner is going to get an opportunity to win people like me back. Until then, I view the Twins as a fun, ongoing case study that gets absolutely none of my money (outside of the shared revenue from other teams or MLB.TV). 

I have been around long enough to have witnessed the Pohlad Family purchase of the team.  And being a follower of the other Minnesota pro teams, it is my opinion that they were/are not the worst ownership group in history.

Do I agree with the approach the last couple of years, no.  But I will still attend a game.

[TheLeviathan]

2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

I would not trade Ryan unless it was this kind of haul.  Wood's production is currently pretty much identical to Soto for $50M less and they got two other very good players.  Let that sink in.  That's a game changer.  The other side of this coin is that they need to trade 1 of Ryan / Lopez or Ober by the end of next year.  Turning over 3 starting pitchers in one year is very poor roster management and to some degree payroll management.  My inclination would be to move Ober but that is probably done this off-season.  Move Paddack for now.

 

The issue there is that Ober will be at a "sellling low" point.  Lopez likely too.

But you're right about the pitching apocalypse this team faces after 2027.  They will have to do something before then.  Extend, trade, whatever.  Losing Ober, Lopez, Rysn, Duran, and Jax for comp picks is wildly awful asset management.

[NYCTK]

2 minutes ago, yeahyabetcha said:

And being a follower of the other Minnesota pro teams, it is my opinion that they were/are not the worst ownership group in history.

That's a really terrible bar to set. 

Minnesota Twins! We're #22! Not the worst! 

[yeahyabetcha]

5 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

That's a really terrible bar to set. 

Minnesota Twins! We're #22! Not the worst! 

I think you missed my point.  I have a feeling that you will disappointed no matter who the next owner is.

[JDubs]

55 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

DSP and Falvey should have been planning the scenarios for that to happen

Yeah man, a good FO should always be thinking they will have $30 million less for no reason the next year. In fact, they should really just stop signing players, period. Who knows if next year ownership will say they're folding the team? They sure would look stupid if they had players under contract then!

[Wedman13]

50 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

It’s next to impossible to hit the bottom line, if you don’t hit the top line. Increased sales fixes margin problems alot better than cost cutting.

..... in every business.  But the lost media/TV revenue for the Twins is very hard to make up for.  Baseball absolutely needs to have salary rules, like every other sport mostly has.  My guess is a prolonged strike/shutdown after 2026 season

[LA Vikes Fan]

7 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

If I have mistrust it is in the ownership and would prefer that they hold onto these assets and let the next owners decide how to utilize them.

As for the Berrios trade they did get two well respected prospects.  Martin has not fulfilled his future value of average regular. Woods Richardson may fulfilled that future value of #4 starter.

That wasn’t the blockbuster of the deadline. It was the Dodgers sending their top two prospects and two others for Trea Turner and Max Scherzer. Josiah Gray and Keibert Ruiz were supposed to be the key to the Nationals future as a top starter and everyday catcher, Ruiz has been their primary catcher but has put up a below replacement level negative fWAR in each of the last three seasons. They keep playing him because the investment was huge in the 8 year contract they gave him. Josiah Gray started for them in 2022 and 2023 with FIPS of 5.86 and 4.93. Early in the 2024 season he left with Tommy John surgery. He may be able to throw at the end of this season. The other two did not make it to the majors and have been released by the Nationals. Ruiz is 27. He could turn it around much like some of the similarly aged Twins in AAA that have shown flashes. Gray may still turn it around but their control of him is running out. He will be a free agent after the 2027. They have the same control for Gray as the Twins have for Ryan, Duran and Jax. If Gray does turn it around I suppose they can trade him next deadline and start the clock over.

I do think the Berrios deal turned out well for the Twins. The key was taking that projected salary and instead of putting it in the owners pockets they went out and added Sonny Gray. The cost to the Twins was 1+ season of Berrios and Chase Petty. The return was two seasons of Sonny Gray, Austin Martin, Simeon Woods Richardson and Kyle DeBarge (comp pick for Gray). If the owners don’t follow through and add Gray’s salary in 2022 then it is a bad deal.

Do we have trust that this ownership will spend the resources to replace Ryan or Duran or Jax this winter? That was the key to the Berrios deal.

Good analysis. I think sometimes we forget that the return for Berrios was more than just SWR and Martin, but it was also the payroll flexibility to sign Gray and then DeBarge as the comp pick. That package out has to also include Petty. Looked at it in the full analysis, it’s actually pretty even or maybe a slight Twins win depending on the three non-MLB players. I personally have more hope for Martin than anyone else, I think he could be a solid third or fourth outfielder. SWR looks like a soled #4 starter. DeBarge looks interesting. On the other hand, Petty could be a frontline starter in five years so the final tally is still not yet complete.

[USAFChief]

6 hours ago, Otaknam said:

Baldelli is an Earl Weaver clone, just waiting for a three run homer. The team doesn’t have great speed, but what they have is not utilized very well IMO. The offense is  not very good, but they seldom try to force some action by stealing bases or hit and run, putting pressure on the defense. 

Earl Weaver's 1969 Orioles stole 85 bases and had 74 sacrifice bunts. He was a big fan of 3 run homers--as should be all baseball managers (and fans)--but he didnt just sit around and wait for them. His teams hit and ran, and hit behind runners. His 1969 team won 108 games with fewer HRs than every Twins team under Baldelli except 1..

 

Now some of those sac bunts were because pitchers still hit. But the point is, Baldelli is nothing like Earl Weaver. And we haven't e enough talked about pitching.