Could the Phillies Swing Big for Byron Buxton? Don’t Count On It

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of © Neville E. Guard-Imagn Images

Trade speculation season is in full swing, and the latest proposal making waves involves the Minnesota Twins shipping off one of their best players in recent history. A potential deal between the Twins and Phillies would send center fielder Byron Buxton to Philadelphia in exchange for right-handed pitcher Mick Abel and catching prospect Alirio Ferrebus.

It’s a headline-worthy idea. Buxton has been a cornerstone of the Twins’ organization for over a decade, since he was taken with the No. 2 overall pick in the 2012 MLB Draft. When healthy, he’s a game-changing talent who can impact both sides of the runs ledger. This year, he’s shown flashes of his best form again. Through 67 games, he’s already posted 3.3 bWAR ,with 19 home runs and a 149 OPS+, plus elite defense in center field. But as intriguing as the hypothetical may be, the reality is far more complicated.

Why the Phillies Would Pick Up the Phone
Philadelphia’s outfield production has been among the worst in the league. Their revolving door of Brandon Marsh, Max Kepler, and Johan Rojas has combined for -0.7 bWAR. Even more staggering: Phillies center fielders have just two home runs all season, the fewest in baseball.

With postseason ambitions and a pressing need to upgrade their outfield, the Phillies could be in the market for an impact bat. Buxton, when healthy, checks every box. He brings elite speed, power, and defense. Philadelphia’s president of baseball operations, Dave Dombrowski, has made it clear that the Phillies will be buyers, with his primary focus being upgrading their bullpen. However, he has been known to take big swings when his team is in contention. 

The cost to acquire Buxton? Likely steep. A proposed deal includes 2020 first-rounder Abel, a 23-year-old pitcher with frontline potential, and Ferrebus, a 19-year-old catcher with tools and upside currently ranked in the organization’s top 30. But with Aaron Nola expected back from the IL and top prospect Andrew Painter nearing MLB readiness, the Phillies may feel they can afford to part with pitching depth in the name of a championship run.

Why the Twins Might Listen… in Theory
If the Twins decide to pivot toward the future, Buxton’s contract of roughly $50 million through the 2028 season could be viewed as a long-term hurdle. Trading him would open payroll space, add a top arm in Abel to a pitching pipeline that needs more depth, and potentially clear a path in center field for top prospects Walker Jenkins or Emmanuel Rodriguez down the line.

Ferrebus would also help replenish the system’s depth behind the plate, a position with no clear long-term solutions. The Twins could look at this as an opportunity to retool on the fly, while maximizing Buxton’s current value. But even if that logic holds, there’s one critical detail that makes this deal highly unlikely.

The No-Trade Clause Matters—A Lot
Buxton has full no-trade protection through the 2026 season, and there’s little indication he’s eager to leave. In fact, one of the primary reasons Buxton signed a long-term extension with the Twins (well below his projected market value) was to keep his family rooted in Minnesota. He and his wife have spoken publicly about how much they enjoy raising their kids in the state and building a life in the community. Even after 2026, he'll have the right to reject a trade as he'll have surpassed 10 years of service time by then. Players with at least 10 total seasons of service and five continuous years with one team have de facto no-trade rights, regardless of contract terms.

That loyalty helped the Twins land a potential franchise player at a discounted rate. It also gives Buxton complete control over where he plays, and there’s no indication he’s asked to move on even as the team has struggled to stay in postseason contention this summer. Buxton has endured multiple injuries, roster shakeups, and managerial changes during his tenure in Minnesota. He’s still here. That doesn’t sound like someone looking for a change of scenery.

A Tempting Offer, But a Long Shot
From the Phillies’ perspective, the deal makes a lot of sense. They need outfield help, they’re in a win-now window, and Buxton could be the kind of October weapon that pushes them over the top.

For the Twins, it would be a tough emotional pill to swallow, but potentially a logical baseball decision if the franchise shifts its focus toward the future. But Buxton holds the final say. And based on everything we know, this is a player who isn’t looking to jump ship anytime soon. Nor is it clear that the team is willing to give him up, given everything he means to both the clubhouse and the fan base, in addition to his raw on-field value.

Thus, while the idea of Buxton roaming center field at Citizens Bank Park might make for good content in trade season articles, don’t expect it to become a reality. If Buxton leaves Minnesota, it won’t be because the front office pushed him out. It’ll be because he decided it was time to go. And that time doesn’t appear to be now.

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Does the deal make sense for the Twins? Is there a scenario where Buxton would waive his no-trade clause? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

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[old nurse]

So Bleacher Report Fan dude throws out a hypothetical and multiple sites report the silliness. I suppose the sinking ship dictates the need for fantasy  

[Mike Sixel]

Not even close to enough. 

[TopGunn#22]

Most trade ideas I appreciate.  It's fun to do some quick mental analysis and make a determination.  This didn't take much time to say...NO.  

[Vanimal46]

If Andrew Painter is realistic in the trade return I’m all in on that 

[NYCTK]

Nah. Not even close to enough. 2 top 100 plus another legitimate prospect minimum. 

[Mike Sixel]

4 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

If Andrew Painter is realistic in the trade return I’m all in on that 

It starts with Painter. Agreed. 

[Doctor Gast]

For me, there isn't anyone I'd trade Byron for, especially from PHI. Yes, we need a promising young MLB-ready catcher. Ferrebus isn't the guy. So let's just drop this nonsense. It's just social media BS.

[Vanimal46]

3 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

For me, there isn't anyone I'd trade Byron for, especially from PHI

Not sure why. Andrew Painter is a top 10 consensus prospect with top of the rotation upside. 22 years old. I’d do that in a heartbeat 

[Mike Sixel]

9 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

For me, there isn't anyone I'd trade Byron for, especially from PHI. Yes, we need a promising young MLB-ready catcher. Ferrebus isn't the guy. So let's just drop this nonsense. It's just social media BS.

This whole site is nonsense fans talking... Isn't it?

[RpR]

7 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

This whole site is nonsense fans talking... Isn't it?

Yes.

[mnfireman]

Not even going to read previous posts, Buxton has a full no-trade clause...figure it out from there or keep spewing stupid s***...

[jorgenswest]

Prior to the season Mick Abel had a Fangraphs future value of 40 which the describe as a back end starter with a FIP close to 5. The Twins need catchers but Ferrebus is 19 and is floundering in low A. Maybe in 2027 he finds his way to get a taste of AA at which point the Twins will need to make a rule 5 decision. I would guess his ETA is 2029 or 2030.

[Doctor Gast]

10 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

This whole site is nonsense fans talking... Isn't it?

"For me, there isn't anyone I'd trade Byron for."

It's very clear that you & others don't want to understand what I text. 1st, It's my sentiments. Is it subjective? Yes it is. Why? Because Buxton was screwed over by the Twins, yet he was determined to stay with the Twins. The hurdle against it was that he wanted a no-trade clause & FO did not.

Most players would be hurt & wouldn't want to stay. Most players can't wait to enter FA & max out their money. Most top players would like to leave a less popular team to a high profile team that would promote him & increase his chances to win a WS, become an all-star, MVP & HoF. Buxton's action of signing a very owner-friendly-no-trade extension, shows his forgiving, selfless character & commitment to the Twins.

In a sense, Buxton whole-heartedly married himself to the Twins. As a Twins fan, how can I entertain any thoughts of divorcing a such a player like Buxton for another? Is this the way I want to reward his devotion to the team?

[Doctor Wu]

Do we really need more of these nonsense articles? Enough already!

[In My La Z boy]

15 minutes ago, Doctor Wu said:

Do we really need more of these nonsense articles? Enough already!

At this juncture it would be more productive to hypothesize a return for the players Falvey probably deals if we continue to lose. The Castro article was productive. We deal him and the others of worth on expiring deals, Bader, France and Coulumbe. Maybe also go as deep as Duran & either Larnach or Wallner? The sale, or no sale of the team also matters I'm sure. 

[Jeff K]

I'll start by setting aside the no trade clause.  The Twins are my team.  But there is not a lot to like in terms of watching well played baseball.  By that I mean, fielding, taking extra bases and all the little things.  Buxton does those and it's a joy to watch.  I hope they don't move the player who is, by far, the most interesting to watch.

[Rufus]

Buxton is finally becoming the player everyone always hoped he would be, and now you want to trade him?  

[TopGunn#22]

I always appreciate these articles even if I don't agree with the proposed trade.  It's like when we were kids trading baseball cards with the guys from our neighborhood.  Sometimes you got some pretty one sided offers, but the discussion that followed (I'm not trading you Tony Oliva for Felipe Alou!!!)  was priceless, and sometimes I learned that Felipe Alou wasn't a bad player, just someone I didn't know enough about.

I'm not looking to trade Buxton, but I appreciate the opinion that the discussion BEGINS with Andrew Painter, one of the top pitching prospects in MLB, not just for the Phillies (and not Abel) and that additional prospects would have to be part of the deal.

I agree with La-Z-Boy.  I appreciate reading a little about what prospects could realistically be coming back from the Yankees for Willi Castro.  I like the LH Starting Pitcher as a starting point.  

Even if I don't agree with someone's post, I'll still give a thumbs up if his argument was solid and made sense.  And really, isn't that why we come to TD EVERY DAY?  To read the articles and then read the comments from guys we're all familiar with from their previous comments??  

The writers at TD need to put out articles EVERY DAY.  Sometimes it may seem like it's "click bait" but don't we all love talking about baseball??  Let's tone down the negativity and look more for the positive even if we don't agree with what someone is saying.  

I'm in the camp that the Twins should be selling.  I just don't want to sell core pieces like Buxton, Correa, Ryan and Lopez.  Castro, Bader, Coulumbe, Jeffers, Larnach, Wallner, SWR, and such, I'm O.K. with entertaining offers.  I'm looking forward to new owners, new leadership, new style of play, new philosophy...New Everything.  It bugs me that the current leadership will be making some key decisions THIS trade deadline.  But I'm also betting that the new owners aren't going to want the moribund "status quo" of the current regime.  

The Twins can be "sellers" and still plug some holes in this season's roster and hopefully make the 2026 roster far superior to the current model.  

[D.C Twins]

11 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

I always appreciate these articles even if I don't agree with the proposed trade.  It's like when we were kids trading baseball cards with the guys from our neighborhood.  Sometimes you got some pretty one sided offers, but the discussion that followed (I'm not trading you Tony Oliva for Felipe Alou!!!)  was priceless, and sometimes I learned that Felipe Alou wasn't a bad player, just someone I didn't know enough about.

I'm not looking to trade Buxton, but I appreciate the opinion that the discussion BEGINS with Andrew Painter, one of the top pitching prospects in MLB, not just for the Phillies (and not Abel) and that additional prospects would have to be part of the deal.

I agree with La-Z-Boy.  I appreciate reading a little about what prospects could realistically be coming back from the Yankees for Willi Castro.  I like the LH Starting Pitcher as a starting point.  

Even if I don't agree with someone's post, I'll still give a thumbs up if his argument was solid and made sense.  And really, isn't that why we come to TD EVERY DAY?  To read the articles and then read the comments from guys we're all familiar with from their previous comments??  

The writers at TD need to put out articles EVERY DAY.  Sometimes it may seem like it's "click bait" but don't we all love talking about baseball??  Let's tone down the negativity and look more for the positive even if we don't agree with what someone is saying.  

I'm in the camp that the Twins should be selling.  I just don't want to sell core pieces like Buxton, Correa, Ryan and Lopez.  Castro, Bader, Coulumbe, Jeffers, Larnach, Wallner, SWR, and such, I'm O.K. with entertaining offers.  I'm looking forward to new owners, new leadership, new style of play, new philosophy...New Everything.  It bugs me that the current leadership will be making some key decisions THIS trade deadline.  But I'm also betting that the new owners aren't going to want the moribund "status quo" of the current regime.  

The Twins can be "sellers" and still plug some holes in this season's roster and hopefully make the 2026 roster far superior to the current model.  

Totally agree.... if someone thinks that an article is just click bait.... HOT TAKE ALERT..... just don't click on the article!

[LambchoP]

We're not trading Buxton. I'd rather see trade return ideas for all our guys on expiring contracts who might actually get traded. Throw out some hypothetical trade ideas returns for Castro, Paddack, Coloumbe, Bader, France or Vasquez. Maybe Duran....

[dxpavelka]

Add Painter and we MIGHT at least have a conversation.

 

[jkcarew]

At least we’re having the discussion we should be having. Sell. Not buy.

I’m fine with almost all of the expiring contracts going for anything more than a bag of balls.

Selling high (and healthy) on Buxton should be considered…but even for a spectator offer (which this isn’t, even taking into account the financial aspect)…this FO doesn’t have the spine to do that, if it meant winning even one less game in 2025. “We competing! We’re in 2nd place!” Besides, of all players, trading Buxton would scream the loudest: “We failed!!!” Not happening.

[NYCTK]

2 hours ago, D.C Twins said:

Totally agree.... if someone thinks that an article is just click bait.... HOT TAKE ALERT..... just don't click on the article!

No no no. Every single piece of writen word on the internet should be tailored specifically to me, my ideals, and my interests. And God knows that any single sentence fragment in an article I don't agree with will be reported for breaking this social agreement! 

[Sjoski]

17 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

This whole site is nonsense fans talking... Isn't it?

So...its essentially like X,  but with fewer bots and more people who still think we’re one trade away from 1991 ?

[dxpavelka]

2 hours ago, jkcarew said:

At least we’re having the discussion we should be having. Sell. Not buy.

I’m fine with almost all of the expiring contracts going for anything more than a bag of balls.

Selling high (and healthy) on Buxton should be considered…but even for a spectator offer (which this isn’t, even taking into account the financial aspect)…this FO doesn’t have the spine to do that, if it meant winning even one less game in 2025. “We competing! We’re in 2nd place!” Besides, of all players, trading Buxton would scream the loudest: “We failed!!!” Not happening.

You don't get better when your best players are playing elsewhere.

 

[jkcarew]

1 hour ago, dxpavelka said:

You don't get better when your best players are playing elsewhere.

 

The objective wouldn’t be to be better now, would it. Now is lost, and tomorrow doesn’t look any better.

[dxpavelka]

19 hours ago, jkcarew said:

The objective wouldn’t be to be better now, would it. Now is lost, and tomorrow doesn’t look any better.

Berrios trade:  We're past tomorrow.  Has it made us better?

 

[minman1982]

"Full no trade clause" is all you need to know. There is no indication that Buxton wants to leave and he controls all the cards. Buxton also doesn't seem to be a guy that you could throw $100M at to change his mind. 

[Mike Sixel]

4 hours ago, minman1982 said:

"Full no trade clause" is all you need to know. There is no indication that Buxton wants to leave and he controls all the cards. Buxton also doesn't seem to be a guy that you could throw $100M at to change his mind. 

I guarantee if someone offers him one hundred million, he's leaving. Fifty, probably thirty, is enough. Maybe twenty.