Harrison Bader Probably Won't Continue to Be an Everyday Player for Minnesota Twins, and That's OK

[Eric Blonigen]

Image courtesy of © Ed Szczepanski-Imagn Images

In each of the past three seasons, the Minnesota Twins have signed a fourth outfielder to a one-year deal. They have needed Byron Buxton insurance in center field, and having a starting-caliber center fielder on the bench has allowed for defensive flexibility late in games. It's also allowed for giving regular rest days to the starters. This has proven to be a shrewd strategy.

In 2023, Michael A. Taylor was a valuable asset. Buxton was limited to 85 games (all at DH), and Taylor found his way into 129 games, accruing 2.0 fWAR while playing great defense. In 2024, Manuel Margot was not a good get, looking cooked while providing negative value across 129 games of his own. But, the fact that Margot saw that much action despite not being good shows how necessary the fourth outfielder has been, even in a season of relative health from Buxton.

Fast-forward to this season, and Harrison Bader has been great. He has contributed on both sides of the ball and has been the second-most valuable Twins position player by WAR, trailing only Buxton. He has gotten there by doing things like this.

He has also played nearly every day (57 of the first 65 games), due not to absences from Buxton, but to Matt Wallner missing a month and a half with a hamstring injury. Despite this, Bader’s playing time may be about to decrease—not because of a failure on his part, but because the Twins have a lot of mouths to feed in the outfield, and a crowded mix for the DH rotation.

Matt Wallner has been one of the Twins' best hitters since making his debut in 2023. He’s a nearly everyday player, sitting only against some tough lefties, and can only play the corner outfield spots or serve as the DH.

Trevor Larnach? Not quite the prodigious masher that Wallner is, but he has also earned his regular playing time, and he, too, is limited to the same positions. Willi Castro, while able to play pretty much everywhere, is a subpar defender everywhere but the corner outfield spots at this stage of his career. Even in the corners, he is average, worth zero Outs Above Average. Kody Clemens, for as long as he remains part of the Twins' plans, will also get a fair number of innings in the outfield. Add Buxton and Bader to the mix, and you have six guys for four positions, including DH.

Further complicating the lineup card for the Twins is the pressing need to score more runs.

With injuries to the starting rotation, the Twins are unlikely to get quite the level of performance they have from their starters, and will need to win in different ways. Through Monday’s off-day, the Twins have averaged just 4.25 runs per game, and that total is buoyed by their offensive outburst over the past week, which has taken them from 24th in baseball up to 15th.

While Bader has hit well thus far in 2025, he has been solidly glove-first in each of the past three seasons, and his expected numbers this year suggest he has been a bit lucky. The Twins' best-hitting lineup against right-handed pitchers will have Bader on the bench in favor of Buxton, Wallner, Larnach, Castro, and Clemens.

Look, Bader will still get plenty of at-bats, and log plenty of innings in the outfield; he just isn’t likely to be an everyday player the rest of the way, unless the injury bug strikes again. Until it does, fans may expect to see him start perhaps two or three times a week, to give the starters a day off or to have a DH day, and then to come into close games late another couple times a week. This may well keep Bader healthy, as well, since he has a lengthy injury history of his own.

The rest of the time, be on the lookout for Castro and either Wallner or Larnach in the corners; the other at DH; and Buxton roaming center. That’s a sign of health, and of the roster construction working the way it was intended heading into the 2025 season. With any luck, that’s how the rest of the season will play out, and it will lead to meaningful games being played in September and into October.

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[dxpavelka]

I should think that while we should be able to be on the lookout for the roster construction to workout the way it was intended heading into the 2025 season I'm not as sure that we can count on it.

[Doctor Wu]

30 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

I should think that while we should be able to be on the lookout for the roster construction to workout the way it was intended heading into the 2025 season I'm not as sure that we can count on it.

With the constant issue of injuries, we probably can't count on any sort of certainty this season!

[Otaknam]

I think that Bader would get the playing time in the outfield, with Castro filling in in the infield. Bader is an excellent outfielder, and they need his right handed bat to balance out the lineup.

[William K Johnson]

He should see a lot of late inning defensive action as both Larnac and Wallmer leave a lot to be desired defensively.

[djvang]

Can't he find a cap that doesn't fall off every time he moves a muscle?

[Major League Ready]

As long as he maintains this level of offensive production, the Twins best line-up is Buxton in CF, Bader in LF with one of Wallner/Larnach in right and the other DHing.  Castro might be a slightly better bat but the defensive presence is far more valuable than any offensive difference between the two.   Where is the gain if Bader is lifted so that both Larnach and Wallner or Castro are in the OF given one of them can DH? 

[Jack207]

Bader should be the regular left fielder maybe sitting once a week.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

There are plenty of at bats to go around.  He may not start on a daily basis, but there will inevitably be short term injuries, slumps, and days off to get through.  I don’t think that makes him any less valuable, in the same way that Willi Castro is valuable.  Having a non-starter who “could be” a starter limits the amount of drop off that occurs when bench players start.  Let’s just keep them all healthy and productive.  

[DJL44]

Quote

The Twins' best-hitting lineup against right-handed pitchers will have Bader on the bench in favor of Buxton, Wallner, Larnach, Castro, and Clemens.

Buxton CF, Wallner RF/DH, Larnach DH/RF, Clemens 2B. It comes down to Castro vs Bader. I agree that Bader's glove makes up any difference on offense. FWIW - Castro has better splits against LHP than RHP this season.

[Riverbrian]

It's a dial not a switch. 

There is a lot of room in between playing every single day and not playing at all. 

That goes for the entire team not just Bader. 

 

[Western SD Fan]

When Bader was signed, he was signed to be a sub for Buxton when he needed a day off and a defensive replacement for Larnach or Wallner in the outfield late in games.  We have been blessed this season that Bader has hit out of his skis, especially since we really needed him at the beginning of the season to produce above his norms.  If Bader is starting to go back to his norms, then his playing time will likely diminish back to what it was intended to be at the beginning of the season and that's fine.  I still think there will be plenty of AB's to go around.  Wallner is still coming back from injury.  Anybody can get into a hitting drought and need a day off or two.  I also don't think Rocco can contain himself and start Bader over one of Larnach or Wallner when southpaws are on the mound, even though both have been getting more AB's against lefties.

[Blyleven2011]

Rocco is going to do what Rocco does , it's a gimme  ...

[Road trip]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

As long as he maintains this level of offensive production, the Twins best line-up is Buxton in CF, Bader in LF with one of Wallner/Larnach in right and the other DHing.  Castro might be a slightly better bat but the defensive presence is far more valuable than any offensive difference between the two.   Where is the gain if Bader is lifted so that both Larnach and Wallner or Castro are in the OF given one of them can DH? 

I'd agree, but the odds of Bader maintaining his 2025 offensive production are very low.  He will provide a great glove, but after 2500+ plate appearances we know exactly what he is as a hitter, and it isn't what we've enjoyed thus far.  Maybe he will remain lucky all year, but my guess is that his OPS+ will gradually move back to his career average as the season progresses.... and if you are gonna have a left fielder with an OPS+ under 100 you better have damn fine hitters elsewhere... and the Twins don't.

But of course someone will get hurt, because Twins, so I imagine Bader will start 4 to 5 games a week for the rest of the year.  That's still better than running Margot, Garlick, Gallo, etc out there regularly as we saw earlier this decade.

[NYCTK]

1 hour ago, Western SD Fan said:

When Bader was signed, he was signed to be a sub for Buxton when he needed a day off and a defensive replacement for Larnach or Wallner in the outfield late in games.  

Yes, but that's really minimizing the importance of a 4th OF. Like you said, a 4th OF is going to get a lot of playing time just as a result of being on the roster all year. 

1 hour ago, Western SD Fan said:

I also don't think Rocco can contain himself and start Bader over one of Larnach...when southpaws are on the mound

If he's a halfway decent manager, he 100% should sit Larnach when there's a lefty on the mound though.

Unlike Wallner - who has hit lefties in the minors and even when struggling, shows some good peripherals against lefties - Larnach simply can't hit lefties well enough to justify playing. Career .546 OPS or wOBA of .243 or RC+ of 53. That with a K rate 25% higher and a BB% rate nearly 50% lower and his same terrible OF defense. 

Why would we criticize Rocco for making a smart managerial decision and sitting Larnach against LHP? 

[IndianaTwin]

3 hours ago, NYCTK said:

....

Why would we criticize Rocco for making a smart managerial decision and sitting Larnach against LHP? 

Because criticizing Rocco is what we do on TD? /s

And while arguably still in the SSS category, though the percentage of his plate appearances against lefties has increased to 21 percent this year (compared to 18 percent for his career), his OPS against lefties this season (.470) is even worse than his career average.

Keep working on growth opportunities for Larnach to hit lefties, sure, but as a general rule, Bader should definitely be starting over him against lefties. 

[IndianaTwin]

1 hour ago, Road trip said:

I'd agree, but the odds of Bader maintaining his 2025 offensive production are very low.  He will provide a great glove, but after 2500+ plate appearances we know exactly what he is as a hitter, and it isn't what we've enjoyed thus far.  Maybe he will remain lucky all year, but my guess is that his OPS+ will gradually move back to his career average as the season progresses.... and if you are gonna have a left fielder with an OPS+ under 100 you better have damn fine hitters elsewhere... and the Twins don't.

But of course someone will get hurt, because Twins, so I imagine Bader will start 4 to 5 games a week for the rest of the year.  That's still better than running Margot, Garlick, Gallo, etc out there regularly as we saw earlier this decade.

Your comment provides opportunity for a general question to the group.

Has anyone seen numbers on standard deviations or confidence intervals on OPS+ at various sample sizes? So for a batter with 2500+ plate appearances (e.g., Bader here), what's the +/- where 90 percent of seasons with 500 plate appearances will appear? As in, is there a 5 percent likelihood of a guy with that many PAs to have an OPS 22 points above his career average? A 15 percent likelihood? Or 2 percent?

It seems like this would be relatively easy for someone (not me) to do, but I don't recall seeing it anywhere.  

[DJL44]

43 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

I haven't looked at the numbers specifically, but my eye test says that Larnach has hit much better vs lefty's this season. 

Here are the numbers specifically

YEAR - slash VS LH

2023 - .095/.174/.238

2024 - .227/.261/.318

2025 - .167/.211/.259

If your memory is comparing him to 2023, he's better but he's actually hitting lefties worse than he did in 2024. He needs to be platooned.

I think we've found a role for Jonah Bride - pinch hitter for Larnach.

[RpR]

3 hours ago, djvang said:

Can't he find a cap that doesn't fall off every time he moves a muscle?

The spirit of Astudillo lives!

[NYCTK]

1 hour ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

I haven't looked at the numbers specifically, but my eye test says that Larnach has hit much better vs lefty's this season.  Using his career stats does not seem totally accurate to me.  Remember, we all have been saying that our lefty's will never improve against LH'ed pitching unless we give them at-bats.  This season Rocco HAS given Larnach those at-bats and from what I've seen, he has shown improvement.

He's perhaps  very slightly improved this season against lefties, but he's still really bad. Here are his splits this year: 

v LHP: 5.3% BB / 28.1% K / .211 wOBA

v RHP: 8.9% BB / 19.7% K/ .354 wOBA

He's a fine player, worthy of 500+ PAs but he shouldn't start against LHP and and should get PH for in high leverage ABs against LHP. 

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Here are the numbers specifically

YEAR - slash VS LH

2023 - .095/.174/.238

2024 - .227/.261/.318

2025 - .167/.211/.259

If your memory is comparing him to 2023, he's better but he's actually hitting lefties worse than he did in 2024. He needs to be platooned.

I think we've found a role for Jonah Bride - pinch hitter for Larnach.

Jonah Bride career against lefties: .201/.298/.237/.535

Jonah Bride 2025 against lefties: .222/.294/.244/.539

I mean, sure, better than Larnach. But let's still not put Jonah Bride in a game to hit against lefties. If we can't find somebody who hits better against lefties than either of those guys what are we even doing?

As for Bader, he said when he was signed he was coming here because he was getting an opportunity to play. Often. He was signed to play often and he's going to continue to play often. Maybe not every day, but he's never been a strict 4th outfielder and he isn't going to be one now. He's going to continue to play the majority of the time no matter what the health of the team looks like. He's the "most of the time" left fielder for this team. Has been since the day he signed. The only questions were if he'd stay healthy and hit enough to deserve a corner outfield spot. So far it's career years for both questions. Let's hope it continues.

[NYCTK]

19 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

He's the "most of the time" left fielder for this team. Has been since the day he signed.

You can say this. But you're only guessing. I on the other hand would point to him getting work in RF as to why that's wrong. You don't hear about many players locked into the first spot on the Depth Chart told to get work at a different position in Spring Training. 

What's more likely is he was signed as the 4th OF which tend to play a lot in all three positions even with the best of rosters. And he worked well as an insurance policy in the event there were even a small amount of injuries or ineptitude, which is the case, allowing the Twins to use Larnach as a DH instead of Julien or Miranda which was the initial plan at the opening of the season. 

Quite honestly though, 4th OF is a vital position of depth. Look at last season in the AL Central alone: 

Wenceel Perez - 4th most PAs for the Tigers

Garret Hampson - 113 games for the Royals

and who can forget the infamous Margot, with his team leading 113 appearances in the OF as the 4th OF 

[chpettit19]

14 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

You can say this. But you're only guessing. I on the other hand would point to him getting work in RF as to why that's wrong. You don't hear about many players locked into the first spot on the Depth Chart told to get work at a different position in Spring Training. 

What's more likely is he was signed as the 4th OF which tend to play a lot in all three positions even with the best of rosters. And he worked well as an insurance policy in the event there were even a small amount of injuries or ineptitude, which is the case, allowing the Twins to use Larnach as a DH instead of Julien or Miranda which was the initial plan at the opening of the season. 

Quite honestly though, 4th OF is a vital position of depth. Look at last season in the AL Central alone: 

Wenceel Perez - 4th most PAs for the Tigers

Garret Hampson - 113 games for the Royals

and who can forget the infamous Margot, with his team leading 113 appearances in the OF as the 4th OF 

I'm going off direct quotes from him and Rocco. If you want to call that "guessing," then sure, I'm "guessing." 

This team plays people all over. So that's always the assumption. But Rocco was directly quoted as saying he was going to play left field. "We're going to get him a lot of work in left field." If you want to say I'm guessing after that quote, sure, I'm guessing. But we're all just guessing on here on almost everything.

https://www.mlb.com/video/harrison-bader-on-joining-the-twins

Listen for yourself and tell me if you think this sounds like a guy who was expecting anything other than significant playing time no matter what the health of this team was. Reynolds directly asks him what the conversations were that landed him here. He directly asks him about injuries, chances to play, platoons. Bader tells him the biggest thing is he wants to play and be on the field as much as possible. 

You're guessing far more than I am. But whatever. Read that quote and hear that interview however you want.

[NYCTK]

15 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Listen for yourself and tell me if you think this sounds like a guy who was expecting anything other than significant playing time

As I said, the 4th OF on any major league baseball team IS significant playing time. So that doesn't mean anything to me. Especially considering Bader has never had 450 PAs in his career. So that player saying he expects significant playing time means 400-450 PAs to me. 

4th OF are very important which is why Bader was always a great signing. And now his role has increased since Larnach/Wallner are able to be hidden as a DH regularly with the failures of both Miranda and Julien. 

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Jonah Bride career against lefties: .201/.298/.237/.535

Jonah Bride 2025 against lefties: .222/.294/.244/.539

I mean, sure, better than Larnach. But let's still not put Jonah Bride in a game to hit against lefties. If we can't find somebody who hits better against lefties than either of those guys what are we even doing?

Luke Keaschall is probably the guy, but it will take a couple months.

[chpettit19]

7 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Luke Keaschall is probably the guy, but it will take a couple months.

Keaschall better be back sooner than that. 1 month. It's a broken bone he's already missed 6+ weeks for. Should be healed in a couple weeks, right? Then another 2 weeks of rehab maybe? If he's not back in a Twins uni in a month it's because Clemens is making a case for breakout player of the year or we're probably pretty cranky with the Twins. And I really hope there aren't too many pinch hitting/platoon opportunities for him because he's starting games. I don't want Keaschall on the bench. He's got too much potential for that.

[NYCTK]

3 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Keaschall better be back sooner than that. 1 month. It's a broken bone he's already missed 6+ weeks for. Should be healed in a couple weeks, right? Then another 2 weeks of rehab maybe? If he's not back in a Twins uni in a month it's because Clemens is making a case for breakout player of the year or we're probably pretty cranky with the Twins. And I really hope there aren't too many pinch hitting/platoon opportunities for him because he's starting games. I don't want Keaschall on the bench. He's got too much potential for that.

He's on the 60 Day so he's not eligible to start rehab until late June. And then given we're running up against the all star break soon after, the earliest anyone should expect to see him back in the majors is July 18th, and that's if everything goes well. 

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

He's on the 60 Day so he's not eligible to start rehab until late June. And then given we're running up against the all star break soon after, the earliest anyone should expect to see him back in the majors is July 18th, and that's if everything goes well. 

He is eligible to come off the 60-day at the end of this month. He doesn't need to wait until then to start a rehab assignment. He has 20 days of rehab assignment eligibility. I believe he's eligible to come off the list on the 25th or somewhere around there. So, technically, he is eligible to start rehab now. But he's not likely to start it now. 

But let's go with your July 18th date. That's roughly a month. A month and a week I suppose. But 2 months from now is touching mid-August. That has never been the timeline. The Twins site says "late June." He was hurt end of April. It's a 6-8 week period before it heals. We're at 6 weeks. So, another couple weeks for healing and then it's rehab. He should be healed before the end of the month and can begin a rehab assignment before his IL stint is up. Let's say it takes the full 8 weeks and he's healed on the 26th. That leaves over 2 weeks of games before the break for rehab. So I'll stick with my month being a pretty reasonable estimate and 2 months being too long.

[chpettit19]

17 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

As I said, the 4th OF on any major league baseball team IS significant playing time. So that doesn't mean anything to me. Especially considering Bader has never had 450 PAs in his career. So that player saying he expects significant playing time means 400-450 PAs to me. 

4th OF are very important which is why Bader was always a great signing. And now his role has increased since Larnach/Wallner are able to be hidden as a DH regularly with the failures of both Miranda and Julien. 

"That player" hasn't had 450 PAs because of injury. Or last year because he was bad enough that he got beat out for playing time. 

You had to use a utility player (Garrett Hampson played 7 positions last year plus had 22 pinch hit appearances) in one of your 3 player example to make your "4th OF are very important" point. Impressive stuff. yes, every roster spot is important. And any player can end up playing significantly more than you'd like. 

Opening day saw Bader in left, Larnach at DH, and Julien on the bench. Game 3 saw the same thing. They did move Bader over to right in Chicago for game 4, I'll give you that. But then he went right back to left and away we went with Miranda and Julien being the ones who were alternating their time sitting on the bench early in the season before their demotions as Larnach was DHing and Bader was playing mostly LF with Wallner in RF and Buxton in CF.

Yes, they've moved him around some in the OF. But he's never been a "4th OFer." He's been a starting OFer from the beginning. Since opening day. "Starting" is a loose term around Twins land and that's why I said "most of the time" in the comment you originally responded to. And he's spent most of his time in left field. Like I said. It's not guessing anymore. We saw how the season started. It was with Julien on the bench and then Julien and Miranda alternating while Bader got consistent time. We've seen how the season has played out. It's been with Bader playing most of the time in left field. Just like I said before the season and like I'm saying now. But he's been surprisingly good with the bat so it's been a good thing. I hope he keeps it up. But he was clear in that interview during the offseason he came here to play a lot. Rocco was clear in spring that Bader was here to play a lot of left field. And it's played out that way. I'm not sure what you're arguing with. That's how it's played out.

[NYCTK]

25 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

He is eligible to come off the 60-day at the end of this month. He doesn't need to wait until then to start a rehab assignment. He has 20 days of rehab assignment eligibility. I believe he's eligible to come off the list on the 25th or somewhere around there. So, technically, he is eligible to start rehab now. But he's not likely to start it now. 

But let's go with your July 18th date. That's roughly a month. A month and a week I suppose. But 2 months from now is touching mid-August. That has never been the timeline. The Twins site says "late June." He was hurt end of April. It's a 6-8 week period before it heals. We're at 6 weeks. So, another couple weeks for healing and then it's rehab. He should be healed before the end of the month and can begin a rehab assignment before his IL stint is up. Let's say it takes the full 8 weeks and he's healed on the 26th. That leaves over 2 weeks of games before the break for rehab. So I'll stick with my month being a pretty reasonable estimate and 2 months being too long.

Aah. Thank you for the correction. I still think the fact we've not heard any updates means we shouldn't anticipate him to rehab anytime soon. And I'd expect him to do time in Florida before going to AAA. I'll take the over on ASB.