Carson McCusker, Aaron Judge, and Realistic Expectations for Monster Mashers

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of Rob Thompson, St. Paul Saints

Carson McCusker’s ascent to the Minnesota Twins is a fascinating blend of perseverance and power, arriving just as the club faces a dearth of right-handed bats following multiple big-league injuries. Turning 27 later this week, McCusker is markedly older than the typical call-up. His right-handed power could be a timely infusion, but expectations should be kept in check.

McCusker’s story diverges sharply from the typical draftee pipeline. After being selected in the 26th round by the Brewers in 2017, he opted not to sign, and instead played four seasons at Oklahoma State University before going undrafted in 2021. Undeterred, he spent parts of three seasons in independent ball before earning a minor-league contract with the Twins in June 2023. Standing 6-foot-8 and 250 pounds, his imposing frame and prodigious raw power quickly separated him in the minors. His relative inexperience against professional pitching may temper expectations about his development curve, but his success in that timeframe speaks to a polished approach born of necessity.

The Twins’ Right-Handed Void
With both Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa placed on the seven-day concussion list over the weekend, Minnesota’s lineup suddenly lacks its two best right-handed bats. Buxton, leading the team in many offensive categories, ran face-first into the back of Correa while chasing a pop-up against Baltimore, and has since entered concussion protocol. Correa exited the same game immediately, and was placed on the IL the day before Buxton.

Royce Lewis, freshly activated on May 5 from a hamstring strain, has been slowly regaining form but still lacks consistent power production. José Miranda, once seen as a potential solution, was demoted after a slow start, slashing just .167/.167/.250 in 12 MLB games. That leaves a glaring hole for a right-handed power bat, and the Twins hope McCusker can fill the need.

The Good: Power Explosion
At Triple-A St. Paul, McCusker has torched opposing pitching, with 10 home runs and a 1.061 OPS in 154 plate appearances. His batted-ball profile is head-turning:

• Barrel Rate (16.3 %): Among the best in the International League, indicative of optimal exit-velocity/launch-angle combinations.
• Average EV (94.2 mph) & Max EV (115.0 mph): Reflecting elite raw power.
• Hard-Hit Rate (58.1 %): Over half of his batted balls measure 95 mph or higher off the bat.
• wOBA (.461): Ranking in the 97th percentile of Triple-A hitters, underscoring his run-creation prowess.

These metrics paint McCusker as a true slugger. He has the kind of bat that can alter the balance of a game with a single swing.

The Bad: Contact and Discipline Concerns
On the other hand, McCusker’s power profile comes with exaggerated versions of the warts associated with many power hitters. He has struck out in 29.9% of his plate appearances, which raises red flags about his ability to handle big-league offspeed stuff. His 8.4% walk rate is an improvement, compared to his 7.1% rate at Triple-A last season. Still, his swing-and-miss tendencies remain:

• Whiff Rate (33.5%): Evident in his high strikeout percentage, prompting concerns that MLB pitchers will exploit his occasional inability to adjust mid-at-bat.
• Z-Contact Rates (78.8%): In-zone contact rates have room for improvement, hinting at potential struggles catching up to major-league velocity.

Big-league pitchers will surely test McCusker’s chase zones early, forcing him to prove he can consistently put the bat on the ball at the highest level.

Not Just a Lefty Masher
Although many long-legged sluggers show a stark platoon split, McCusker’s Triple-A numbers tell a different story this year. In 37 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, he’s slashed .361/.411/.649, virtually neck-and-neck with his overall Triple-A line. Last season, he posted a .959 OPS against lefties with an .804 OPS versus righties. 

That said, the Twins will likely continue to deploy him in a traditional righty/lefty, platoon simply because big-league matchups (and how Minnesota manages its roster) still favor handing McCusker more at-bats versus southpaws and having him on the bench against righties. His statistical neutrality won’t immediately override established platoon principles, especially given his lack of prospect sheen.

Hitting at 6-Foot-8: What It Takes
McCusker is a monster in the batter's box. Only five position players in MLB history have stood 6-foot-7 or taller and weighed at least 240 pounds: Frank Howard, Aaron Judge, Oneil Cruz, Steven Moya, and Nate Freiman. Here’s why each offers insight into the skill set McCusker must harness:

• Frank Howard (6-7, 275 lb): The “Capital Punisher” led the AL in homers twice with a short, powerful swing that maximized his loft and exit velocities. Despite limited athleticism, Howard showed how a strong lower half and quick hands can turn length into launch.
• Aaron Judge (6-7, 282 lb): Judge pairs his mammoth frame with elite bat speed and an uncanny ability to cover the strike zone. He routinely barrels pitches on both inner and outer thirds thanks to remarkable coordination for his size. His athleticism proves that power and defense can coexist at XXL proportions.
• Oneil Cruz (6-7, 260 lb): Cruz’s loose, handsy swing lets him adjust to high-spin fastballs in the upper zone. This is an uncommon trait for such a long-armed hitter and underscores the value of barrel control. That said, he still strikes out at a very high rate.
• Steven Moya (6-7, 260 lb): Moya combined strength with surprisingly good balance, translating into solid plate discipline and the ability to drive both grounders and fly balls. His career shows that a tall slugger must still hone strike-zone judgment to stick at the highest level; that's what separates Judge and Howard from the rest of the bunch.
• Nate Freiman (6-8, 245 lb): The former A’s first-baseman used a compact stroke and low-centered stance to reach pitches down in the zone, proving that tall hitters succeed when they optimize leverage and maintain a level bat path. However, like that of Moya, his career in the majors was relatively short and forgettable.

The blueprint for McCusker is clear: convert his extraordinary raw power into consistent contact by refining his plate mechanics and strike-zone control, leveraging his size to drive balls to all fields.

Realistic Expectations
It would be unreasonable to project McCusker as an offensive savior for the Twins. Instead, realistic expectations for the former independent-league slugger include:

• Immediate Impact: A power boost from the right side, capable of multiple extra-base hits in his first handful of games against favorable matchups.
• Patience Needed: Early struggles with strikeouts are likely. A 25% K rate would be a win.
• Defensive Replication: Limited to corner outfield and DH duties, minimizing the need for defensive adjustments.

McCusker brings raw power to the Twins at a crucial juncture, after an unconventional ascent through independent ball and the minor leagues. While he must prove his contact skills and adjust to big-league pitching, his potential to deliver right-handed power makes him more of a threat than many of Minnesota’s other righty options. Expect him to be a high-variance bat, capable of game-changing homers but prone to strikeout frustrations as he acclimates to MLB life.

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What stands out about McCusker? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

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[Schmoeman5]

 🤞 

[thelanges5]

💪🏼⚾️🚀

[mickster]

He will spend the 7 days here and pinch hit 95% of that time.  Not a real prospect and a place holder right now.

[LambchoP]

I'd rather see him actually get some consistent at bats rather than an appearance here or there. Keirsey cannot hit, give Crusher a chance to get in a routine and do some damage. I'm worried that with Bader hurt and unable to play CF, we are stuck with the automatic out of Keirsey :(

[Road trip]

19 minutes ago, LambchoP said:

I'd rather see him actually get some consistent at bats rather than an appearance here or there. Keirsey cannot hit, give Crusher a chance to get in a routine and do some damage. I'm worried that with Bader hurt and unable to play CF, we are stuck with the automatic out of Keirsey :(

Agree.  Given our dearth of options give him a few starts.

How does his defense grade out?  I've read so much about his bat, but haven't seen much about his defense.  In the field is he more like fleet footed Aaron Judge or the statuesque Josh Willingham?  If he can play a passable corner outfield I'd hope to see him starting in the field tonight against the lefty pitcher.  If not, I guess I'd like to see him at DH.

[tony&rodney]

27 minutes ago, LambchoP said:

I'd rather see him actually get some consistent at bats rather than an appearance here or there. Keirsey cannot hit, give Crusher a chance to get in a routine and do some damage. I'm worried that with Bader hurt and unable to play CF, we are stuck with the automatic out of Keirsey :(

Agree with this. McCusker has shown an ability to adjust to pitchers. His .350 BA is a sign of someone who can hit. Hitting the ball hard makes it nearly impossible for teams when the infield is in witha runner at third base. Carson has 11 doubles to go along with the 10 home runs and a pile of RBIs as well. The K rate is just under 30% this year. Comparisons to Judge are not at all a good idea but it is worth noting that Judge ran a 44% K rate in his first look at MLB pitchers. In any event, McCusker is not Judge but has some solid skills: he hits for average and power, runs the bases decently, and plays a very fundamentally sound defense in right field. Of course there will be rough spots but the payoff could be worth giving Carson an honest run as a regular. The Twins are not in a good spot in the outfield right now with Bader needing to heal and Keirsey Jr. looking overmatched at the plate. I like how Larnach is battling at the plate but he is very weak in the outfield. Finally, Castro is also banged up and not exactly at full strength.

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, mickster said:

He will spend the 7 days here and pinch hit 95% of that time.  Not a real prospect and a place holder right now.

Yes, you could be correct. This may be especially possible because the Twins do not have much invested in McCusker. The Twins did call him up though and I laud that decision.

My only thought on your comment or similar thoughts from others is one of curiosity .... how many times have you or anyone else seen McCusker play. Seems hasty to judge him if one has not seen a couple dozen games where Carson has played.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

My expectations are realistic here:

1.100 OPS and MVP votes. Aaron Judge v2.0

[twinstalker]

It would border on miraculous for McCusker to have a 25% K rate after being over 30% in the minors.  And that's if he'd done it at age 22-23.

Now in his age 27 season, McCusker's outlook isn't good based on any comps anywhere.  Judge and Cruz have nothing in common with McCusker except body size.  I look a bit like Bill Gates, but no one would compare us in any way except we're both in technical fields.

The biggest hope for McCusker is that pitchers don't pitch him the way they need to right away, and he kills it for a short while until they do.

Still, there's an outside hope that he's got some Wallner in him.  That his "bad stats" are mostly about putting up his "good stats."  I don't know about that with him.  For one, he wasn't all that good or interesting last year, and so unless he figured something out in the offseason, I'm afraid he's not destined for any sort of greatness.

He's definitely a cross your fingers guy.  I took a chance on him in a draft the other day, more for early returns than anything else.  If he helps me win a few games before pitchers make him look silly, I'm happy.

[chpettit19]

4 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

My expectations are realistic here:

1.100 OPS and MVP votes. Aaron Judge v2.0

Aaron Judge is going to be hoping to be Carson McCusker v2.0 by the end of 2025.

[bean5302]

44 minutes ago, Road trip said:

Agree.  Given our dearth of options give him a few starts.

How does his defense grade out?  I've read so much about his bat, but haven't seen much about his defense.  In the field is he more like fleet footed Aaron Judge or the statuesque Josh Willingham?  If he can play a passable corner outfield I'd hope to see him starting in the field tonight against the lefty pitcher.  If not, I guess I'd like to see him at DH.

He's scouted as poor defensively, but you have to take scouting reports with a grain of salt. So much of defensive scouting is about how a player "looks" versus the results they actually get. Matt Wallner is an example. Fangraphs scouted him at like 30 speed, but he actually had 60 grade speed in his first season. McCusker's RF/9 in right field, as compared to other fielders in the division, was well above average. He looks awkward because of his size. With huge strides, it makes him look slower than he is.

[bean5302]

Aaron Judge does not cover the strike zone any better than other good hitters. He's very weak against strikes at the top of the zone, and strikes which are down and away. He understands his strengths and weaknesses after years in the league, though, and Judge has adjusted his swing/take approach to allow him to reduce his K rate from 31% for his first 3 seasons all the way down to 22% so far this year.

McCusker's not Aaron Judge. Like, not even close. While a 115.0mph max EV is still impressive, certainly 70 grade raw power, Judge has averaged in the 118-121 range. It's next level along with some other super elites. McCusker is also very raw by MLB standards. I think McCusker's ability to adapt is clear, and there's no reason to believe he's hit his ceiling yet.

Here's how McCusker's plate discipline adjusted
2023 A FTM 9.3% BB/ 35.2% K
2023 A+ CED 6.1% BB / 39.0% K
2024 AA WCH 9.0% BB / 27.9% K <--- this was a massive leap forward
2024 AAA STP 7.1% BB / 33.7% K <--- still better than A+ ball the year before, now at AAA
2025 AAA STP 8.4% BB / 29.9% K <--- this is another leap forward.

Going from 33.7% K to 29.9% might not seem like a huge change, but it's very relevant, and McCusker has been getting better as the AAA season has moved forward. Throw out his last game at AAA, where McCusker got a little hosed on calls based on what I saw, McCusker owned a 25.3% strike out rate in his previous 20 games.

Now, what can McCusker be? That's the big question, and we won't know until he gets regular plate appearances at the MLB level. I think Wallner is close to a rehab assignment at this point as he's been running, sprinting and taking turns while participating in batting practice for over a week now. I'm not sure calling McCusker up to get him a week of sporadic playing time is a good use of the 40 man roster so we'll just have to wait and see how the Twins deploy him.

[mickster]

46 minutes ago, tony&amp;rodney said:

Yes, you could be correct. This may be especially possible because the Twins do not have much invested in McCusker. The Twins did call him up though and I laud that decision.

My only thought on your comment or similar thoughts from others is one of curiosity .... how many times have you or anyone else seen McCusker play. Seems hasty to judge him if one has not seen a couple dozen games where Carson has played.

Great point and correct.   I am going based on him not being on any prospect list and age.   I am hoping to be wrong, but thinking that if they had to DFA they don't feel a great loss and possible non-claim

[bean5302]

19 minutes ago, mickster said:

Great point and correct.   I am going based on him not being on any prospect list and age.   I am hoping to be wrong, but thinking that if they had to DFA they don't feel a great loss and possible non-claim

No way McCusker makes it through waivers at this point given his performance in AAA and potential ceiling, but they don't need to DFA him since he's got 3 options.

McCusker is similar to Payton Eeles, signed out of Indy league ball so he started MiLB last year.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, tony&amp;rodney said:

Agree with this. McCusker has shown an ability to adjust to pitchers. His .350 BA is a sign of someone who can hit.

Someone who can hit lousy AAA pitching. Nobody should expect him to hit .350 in MLB. Fortunately, he has enough power to be a positive contributor with a .240 average. That's basically Randal Grichuk or Jorge Soler.

 

[Parfigliano]

2 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

My expectations are realistic here:

1.100 OPS and MVP votes. Aaron Judge v2.0

Or not 

[Parfigliano]

Aaron Judge is a f#kin unicorn.  I don't think McCusker has hit a MLB foul ball yet.

Probably the same.

[NYCTK]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Someone who can hit lousy AAA pitching. Nobody should expect him to hit .350 in MLB. Fortunately, he has enough power to be a positive contributor with a .240 average. That's basically Randal Grichuk or Jorge Soler.

 

How right you are. Zips projections  

McCusker: 235/292/410

Grichuk: 245/297/407

[Longball]

3 hours ago, LambchoP said:

I'd rather see him actually get some consistent at bats rather than an appearance here or there. Keirsey cannot hit, give Crusher a chance to get in a routine and do some damage. I'm worried that with Bader hurt and unable to play CF, we are stuck with the automatic out of Keirsey :(

Agree.  Quickest way to cool off timing and stroke is sitting on the bench.  Do not bring him up if you do not intend to put him in the line up.  No...to pinch hitting.  That just adds pressure.  He needs ML at bats... a bunch of them asap.  

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Someone who can hit lousy AAA pitching. Nobody should expect him to hit .350 in MLB. Fortunately, he has enough power to be a positive contributor with a .240 average. That's basically Randal Grichuk or Jorge Soler.

 

Would Bubba Chandler be a lousy AAA pitcher?

I'm not sure what he can be but i have seen him light up some highly thought of AA and AAA pitchers.

[CRF]

I'd just as soon see what McCusker can give us. Keirsey is fine defensively, but he's a zero at the plate. Get the big dude some AB's and see what he can do. 

[chpettit19]

Lefty on the mound tonight has paved the way for his first MLB start.

Nobody knows what he'll be, but it'll be fun finding out. Hopefully he sends a few into orbit along the way. The odds are against every player who ever picks up a bat, ball, or glove. Carson has made real adjustments in the upper minors and that gives him a chance. To my knowledge, there's never been a player who's proven they can hit MLB pitching while facing AAA pitching. Only way anyone ever proves they can hit MLB pitching is by facing MLB pitching. McCusker is going to get his chance. It's all anyone can ever ask for. He's earned it. Now he needs to earn the chance to stick around for a while.

[DJL44]

6 minutes ago, tony&amp;rodney said:

I'm not sure what he can be

It's all about his strikeout rate and batting average. He could hit anywhere from .180 to .290.

Byron Buxton actually has a similar power/strikeout profile. Buxton has a tad more speed to his game which helps him stretch doubles to triples.

[NYCTK]

24 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

It's all about his strikeout rate and batting average. He could hit anywhere from .180 to .290.

Byron Buxton actually has a similar power/strikeout profile. Buxton has a tad more speed to his game which helps him stretch doubles to triples.

And outs to singles. 

[jmlease1]

I'm expecting his K-rate to be north of 30%. If he keeps it south of 40% while dropping in a bomb every 20 PA's, then it'll be pretty good in this first go around.

He's going to swing and miss. A lot. Hopefully he gets some full games to show what he can do and not just some 1-2 PA appearances. Let him get a start or 3 while we wait for wallner, buxton, and correa to get back.

[Blyleven2011]

40 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

And outs to singles. 

And singles into doubles...

[tony&rodney]

Comparing anyone to Buxton? Hmmm?

The most obvious comparison is still a rather loose comparison, which is Matt Wallner. There are some similarities including that Twins Daily was down on the lefty slugger when he arrived. Wallner is better at drawing walks by a smidge and gets HBP often helping his OBP. The minor league K rates are similar as are the power numbers. McCusker gets the edge in BA. Wallner has a better arm but Carson gets better jumps on fly balls. They are different players with SOME similarities. I'm not understanding the hangup a few people have with both age and prospect status.

My personal take is that the Twins are in need of a bat with a little pop to it. The timing is perfect for McCusker and the Twins may have something in him. Nobody can be certain how he will produce at the MLB level but this is also true for guys like Jackson Holliday (he is having a fine year in 2025 thus far). Patience and positive thinking is my mantra for McCusker. I would really like to see him in the lineup every day until it is necessary to bring back someone from the IL or sit him due to a lack of performance. Giving McCusker plate appearances seems like a win-win to me.

[DJL44]

39 minutes ago, tony&amp;rodney said:

Comparing anyone to Buxton? Hmmm?

The most obvious comparison is still a rather loose comparison, which is Matt Wallner. 

Buxton's ISO OBP is 50 points, Wallner's is 90 points. In the minors, McCusker was around 60 points, closer to Buxton than Wallner.

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Buxton's ISO OBP is 50 points, Wallner's is 90 points. In the minors, McCusker was around 60 points, closer to Buxton than Wallner.

Here's the thing, as a person who played , coached, scouted, and managed for 50 years and devised my own metrics I'm more interested in watching a player and seeing if they offer something and very much not into the analytics. It's just a personal thing and totally unimportant, but I'm always hopeful for the call-ups.