How Much Can We Take from Ty France's Scorching Spring?

[arby58]

20 minutes ago, Bodie said:

Yeah, he was worse.

And proof that WAR is meaningless.  Anyone with a pair of eyes (and an iron stomach) could watch and tell you he was a one dimensional player who FAR too often didn't display even that one dimension. 

Now let us never speak of this "Gallo" ever again...

More of what I find to be bizarre - a commonly used stat is meaningless because you couldn't stomach the Ks. Meanwhile, what about OPS and OPS+ - they're worthless too, I guess. We'll just rely on the Bodie stomach line from now on.

[LA Vikes Fan]

Look, I'd be short term thrilled if France got 400=450 PAs, hit .255/.325/.405, with 20 HRs, and gave us close to average IB defense this year. That's probably the high end of his range but he has done a little better than that in 21021 and 2022 and close to that in 2023, so it's within the realm of possibility.

What concerns me is the lack of opportunity for Miranda in that scenario. He's hit .284/.322/.441 (.763), 112 OPS+ in 429 PAs, 401 ABs last year, all at age 26. He needs a place to play every day or at least 4-5 days a week.  Why? Because his first 1000 ABs have shown that he is at least an above average hitter and with only a 5% improvement could be a middle of the order mainstay for a team that desperately needs 2 or 3. If this team is going to have a 3-5 year championship competitive run, we need middle of the order type production from three of Lewis, Miranda, Wallner, and Larnach, ideally from all 4.  I think there is a reasonable chance that we can get that level of production from at least 3 of those 4 but we can't if they don't get to play enough. The DH spot is properly going to be on a rotation for partial days off, so we have to have a place for Miranda to play in a fairly regular basis. Where is that going to be if not at 1B? 3B, LF, and RF are all taken. Maybe the plan is 2-3 days a week at 1B, 1-2 at 3B, and 2 at DH. It does make wonder how anybody gets good at any position in that kind of scenario.

The bottom line is Miranda needs ABs, and he should get them at 1B at France's expense if that's the only available place unless we think France can perform like he did in 2022 AND will be here for the performing at that level for the next 3-5 years. I don't think either of those things are likely to be true. 

[Byrdman]

I just don't want to lose Miranda because we kept France.  If France falls on his face two months later we have someone that can play.  I just rather have Miranda take 1B over and run with it.  Hopefully he can at lease be middle of the road or better at the position. 

[farmerguychris]

Hopefully he's been practicing grabbing the skip throws from Correa.  

[chpettit19]

3 hours ago, arby58 said:

I know Joey Gallo was everybody's favorite whipping boy in 2023, but some of the criticism of the front office for hanging with him strikes me as unfair. First, he was their most impactful hitter early in the season - he had an OPS over 1.000 for the first month of the season. He still was generally over .800 through the middle of June, and was over .800 as late as the beginning of July. He was in the .700s through the rest of the year. That doesn't sound like a player you 'quick hook.' His OPS+ for the year was 100 (i.e., league average), and his WAR for the year was 0.5 - above that of a replacement player. Yes, he struck out a lot, but he also led the Twins in HRs. I'm not saying he was great, or even good, but he was also not Margot.

His overall OPS may have stayed up, but he didn't have an OPS over .718 in any month after April. His OPS by month went 1.063, .654, .674, .567, .718 and then he got 10 PAs in September. Those are OPS+ of 81, 81, 52, and 96 the rest of the way. His overall OPS absolutely wasn't telling the story into July, it was just seeing how far his first month could stretch in terms of carrying his overall OPS to respectability. Margot's OPS last year was .626. After the first month of the season Gallo was barely better than Margot. Carrying either of those players for the full season was nonsense.

My concern over them doing the same with France is lower as he's on a much cheaper deal, but it's still a very real worry that they'll hold onto him in the name of "depth" even if he were to string together multiple months of below average production. Just like they did with Farmer, Margot, and Gallo. France is a different kind of hitter than Gallo, and a flat out better hitter than Farmer and Margot when they're all going right. He has the better chance to be productive and his spring is looking like he may be back to his old self. And that'd be huge for the Twins.

[ashbury]

7 hours ago, TL said:

France producing like even 75% of what he’s shown in the spring increases those odds. 

Wait.  We are to accept that a 1.346 OPS isn't sustainable? 😀

BTW, this thread turned into a referendum on Joey Gallo so gradually, I almost didn't notice.

[Vanimal46]

I’ve ordered 2 tons of bronze and already started chiseling Ty France to place outside of Target Field. Should France be leaping with joy? Or throwing his bat in the air?

[Fatbat]

7 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

If Julien and Miranda are both defensive liabilities at 1st base, why are they on the team?

Miranda can hit the ball. 

[chpettit19]

39 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

I’ve ordered 2 tons of bronze and already started chiseling Ty France to place outside of Target Field. Should France be leaping with joy? Or throwing his bat in the air?

I think leaping and bat throwing are too aggressive for MN fans. The thumbs up is probably as wild as we should get.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

So what has this spring taught us with France, its that he is seeing the ball and has confidence again.   That bodes well for this year,  and yes I would lean towards his numbers replicating closer to 2022 numbers than say 2024.  

He has been pretty transparent in his journey and approach.   He had a a heck of a couple years,  then he struggled a bit in 2023 and rather than try to go back to what made him successful, he went to driveline and tried to recreate the wheel.  Now his April and May numbers were actually pretty solid,  then he got injured and everything fell off a cliff.   

This year he went back to Tony Gwynns approach to a simple approach of see ball, hit ball.  Don't worry about getting the perfect launch angle,  don't try to reach for homers,  hit the ball often and damn hard.  So far that is a success. 

Yes its limiting Miranda a bit, but it also gives Miranda another year to grow into the position and we can see what he can do in a platoon and 1st and DH role.  I had said when he signed him there was definitely some upside to the signing and so far it looks like a heck of a steal, but spring training numbers are notorious for being meaningless,  so we will keep watching and see how the early months go.  

[Rod Carews Birthday]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

I think leaping and bat throwing are too aggressive for MN fans. The thumbs up is probably as wild as we should get.

Perhaps just the friendly nod.  

[Aerodeliria]

Spring is in the air.

Of course TD members care.

As young men throw balls and crack bats.

We hope and dream to tip our hats.

So we put our hopes in a guy named France.

We hope he's a stud,  but not much of chance.

But now it's spring,

So discussing baseball is our thing.

[h2oface]

It's better than not hitting (or playing much) like the guys we really need to hit and be consistent. So there's that.

[Fatbat]

6 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I think leaping and bat throwing are too aggressive for MN fans. The thumbs up is probably as wild as we should get.

That would be epic to roll into the stadium gate area on Viva La France 🇫🇷 day🤡👍🏻

[yeahyabetcha]

14 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

If Julien and Miranda are both defensive liabilities at 1st base, why are they on the team?

Miranda as Dh and part time 1b and 3b .  Julien as a part time second baseman and pitch hitter or at AAA

[dxpavelka]

This had better be a mirage.  I don't want to spend the whole season seeing every expert (and non expert) on this site eating crow.

[Cglidds]

Why bring up Gallo..2023 was ghastly and as frustrated as a fan experience as I've ever had.. been following close since '84. Gallos hot start gave me hope, which was dashed upon the rocks over and over again with men on base, only to see him keep his OPS up via a solo shot when we were up 6-2 against the back of the bullpen..let's just say numbers can be decieving.

[DocBauer]

France wasn't even close to the top of my list for a 1B addition. But as I've said before, being only 30yo, and offering up at least some hope of upside, I sure liked him better than Rizzo, Turner, or Canha, amongst others.

I don't like him being handed the job as #1 1B instead of Miranda, who is younger, still paetmof the future of this club, and potentially a much better hitter, based on what we've seen of him when healthy.

A good 2021, 2022, and good start to 2024 before being hurt and only 30yo offers upside hope you may get the 2021-22 version of France, or something close to it. But what does a good ST really mean? No much. But it's sure better than being hurt, hitting slow rollers or lazy pop ups. 

Miranda can get as many AB/PA as France as a DH and part time 3B/1B. But then again, France can also DH and let Miranda play 1B. Even if we get a fully rebounded France...which would be awesome...I just don't want Miranda ignored at 1B. No matter how hard he works on his defense, you still that bright light game experience as well.

[USAFChief]

Ty France is on first

And as spring turns to summer

It will then be Who