Ishbia Out: Justin Ishbia No Longer Candidate to Purchase Twins

[Guest]

24 minutes ago, saviking said:

Usually, someone cheap with his money expects others to be frivolous with theirs. Polads probably tried to drive too hard of a bargain. 

Oh.  Brilliant.

[KnoblauchWasFramed]

7 hours ago, cheeseheadgophfan said:

Just asking......but why would that be so bad?  He'll have money from the sale of the Wolves.....spending wasn't the problem for the Wolves, bad management was.  He signed KG and let him bring in his boys (a big mistake).  He signed Joe Smith to a big deal (another mistake)....but spending money was not the problem.

Bro... seriously?  Taylor has owned the team for 30 years.... they have made it out of the first round of the playoffs twice.  One point of that run they didn't make a playoff appearance for 14 straight seasons.  They lost more than 50 games 11 times while winning more than 50 games 5 times.  

Correct, spending money hasn't always been an issue, but the same can be said about the Twins in several of the last Target Field seasons for the Twins.  The problem is the incompetence shown when spending that money.  The Twins have exceeded expectations and surprised us several times by spending money on free agents... the problem however... is the money was almost always spent poorly.  It was like the Twins spent the extra money just for the sake of saying that they did it and then took no real regard for who they spent in on.

Their obvious philosophy was "why spend $30M on one top flight player when we can spend $30M on 4-5 trash players" - this was almost always exclusively done with pitching.  

Glen Taylor, just like the Pohlads, was a billionaire who bought an asset and then refused to have fun with it and required that it must always turn a massive profit above all else.  And when they had to spend money they showed how inept and incompetent they were.

That's why it is a HARD PASS on anyone like Glen Taylor.

[mikelink45]

1 hour ago, gman said:

This may make it likelier that trades of Paddock, Vazquez and Castro will be made to keep the payroll down.

If someone wants them.

[NYCTK]

9 minutes ago, Minderbinder said:

The Ishbias read TD for a month and decided they didn't want to be the next billionaires to get kicked around in the Twin Cities democratic Somalia....

sat·ire | (/ˈsaˌtī(ə)r/) | noun
the use of humor, irony, exaggeration, or ridicule to expose and criticize people's stupidity or vices, particularly in the context of contemporary politics and other topical issues.

You forgot the humor part of satire. 

[Guest]

47 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

I’ve been castigated so many times on this site for my claim that the Twins organization in its entirety lose money - tens of millions annually - on a CASH basis. I’m not crying for the Pohlads - the equity value of their initial investment has grown substantially.  I’m also not here to debate whether that has proved to be a better investment than other alternatives available at the time of purchase or over the years.

However, I would argue at this point in time it’s very possible the Pohlads see the unrealised equity growth in small/mid market baseball franchises waning while the annual cash requirements (and cash losses) continue to grow.  That dynamic decreases IRRs and it’s quite possible that they see better uses or have other needs for their capital.

We will see how this all shakes out. But my real point is that we shouldn’t hold out hope for somebody to come in here to blow money so they can satisfy their egos.  With what’s going on in LA and NY (one reason why equity values for small market teams are slowing or falling), the amount of that type of egotistical wager just keeps going up.  We are better off developing controllable (i.e. cheap) superior major leaguers.  So my ultimate point is that Falvey and Rocco stink at that.

Methinks the Twins' cash operating income rose to ~$20 million in 2024 after cash operating losses in 2022 and 2023.  While estimates for the Twins' franchise rose to @$1.4B last year, continued equity increases depend in material part on community support, which is clearly waning, and a rising tide across MLB, a tenuous proposition.  Putting the team up for sale when they can point to upward trending cash flows in a community that's lost the love makes perfect sense.  One negative, of course, for MLB buyers is the equity risk premium remains high compared to the previous decade when low interest rates arguably affected asset values disproportionately.  As for the Ishbias, TD should just once, just once, write an article that reflects the fact that people with the means to buy major league sports franchises really do understand how to operate a financial calculator and read the political room.  Of course the Ishbias would prefer a piece of Chicago's bigger market to the Twins Cities constantly complaining, completely unappreciative market. 

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

You forgot the humor part of satire. 

TD defines "satire" in four alternatives....

[Nashvilletwin]

43 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

Rocco isn’t in charge of development. But yes, Falvey does oversee that and getting the right people in place throughout the minors to develop players is imperative.

Wrong.  Our minor league development is excellent, borderline outstanding.  The ongoing development once these players arrive in the big leagues is abysmal.  That is 100% on the scheme and techniques and leadership provided by Rocco and Falvey. 

[Parfigliano]

4 hours ago, Mark G said:

You are right, money was never the issue, bad management was.  My fear with GT is his age; he would be 84 by the time any sale would go through and who takes over if/when he dies or becomes unable?  How long before he has to turn over the reins, and to who (whom?)

 

Me.  You didn't hear that from me.

[Parfigliano]

4 hours ago, Original_JB said:

Told you so...

 

• Posted January 30

I'm starting to think that all this quietness is in part that the Ishbias are waiting to see if the financing for the new White Sox stadium at "The 78" will be hammered out. As "mid single digit %" owners of the Sox, they would need to sell that before being allowed to buy the Twins; That said, the opportunity to buy the White Sox while a whole new development project is being built around the new stadium site (hmm, sound familiar?) would have to be appealing. Now, Chicago is broke, and getting the public financing is causing problems (again, sound familiar?), but when has that ever stopped a project from being pushed through? Obviously, the Twins would be a fabulous back-up plan... 

Got any thoughts on tonight's Powerball numbers?

[Nashvilletwin]

5 minutes ago, Minderbinder said:

Methinks the Twins' cash operating income rose to ~$20 million in 2024 after cash operating losses in 2022 and 2023.  While estimates for the Twins' franchise rose to @$1.4B last year, continued equity increases depend in material part on community support, which is clearly waning, and a rising tide across MLB, a tenuous proposition.  Putting the team up for sale when they can point to upward trending cash flows in a community that's lost the love makes perfect sense.  As for the Ishbias, TD should just once, just once, write an article that reflects the fact that people with the means to buy major league sports franchises really do understand how to operate a financial calculator and read the political room.  Of course the Ishbias would prefer a piece of Chicago's bigger market to the Twins Cities constantly complaining, completely unappreciative market. 

Agree 100%. Well stated.

Btw, it very well could be that cash flow was positive in ‘24. Trying to turn that around pre sale for any relatively mature business is pre sale 101.  My insights don’t match yours on the actual number, but I’m not going to say you’re wrong. It would make sense.

 

[Mike Sixel]

53 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

I’ve been castigated so many times on this site for my claim that the Twins organization in its entirety lose money - tens of millions annually - on a CASH basis. I’m not crying for the Pohlads - the equity value of their initial investment has grown substantially.  I’m also not here to debate whether that has proved to be a better investment than other alternatives available at the time of purchase or over the years.

However, I would argue at this point in time it’s very possible the Pohlads see the unrealised equity growth in small/mid market baseball franchises waning while the annual cash requirements (and cash losses) continue to grow.  That dynamic decreases IRRs and it’s quite possible that they see better uses or have other needs for their capital.

We will see how this all shakes out. But my real point is that we shouldn’t hold out hope for somebody to come in here to blow money so they can satisfy their egos.  With what’s going on in LA and NY (one reason why equity values for small market teams are slowing or falling), the amount of that type of egotistical wager just keeps going up.  We are better off developing controllable (i.e. cheap) superior major leaguers.  So my ultimate point is that Falvey and Rocco stink at that.

If they lose money, why are they with so much. What evidence do you have at all? Because when they are sold for more than a billion dollars, it won't be out of charity. 

[purplesoldier4u]

4 hours ago, Russ said:

Not a surprise, despite the current White Sox situation, it is a bigger market to buy into.

... and he will push for a new stadium too!

[Guest]

10 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

If they lose money, why are they with so much. What evidence do you have at all? Because when they are sold for more than a billion dollars, it won't be out of charity. 

"Worth so much" is relative, very relative.  Why is the Twins' franchise estimated to be worth $1.4B?  Opportunity to buy low and sell high in a market with limited, finite supply.  Should interest rates decline, so will the equity risk premium and buyers' risk appetites will increase.

[arby58]

42 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Why did Peter Siedler go nuts with payroll for the Padres?
Why did Mike Illitch go nuts with the payroll for the Tigers?

When billionaires / team owners are facing the end of their days, that crowning achievement and pursuit of happiness often shifts to winning a major sports championship. I have no doubt Taylor would be willing to spend big if he buys the Twins. I also have no doubt that Taylor's ownership would look a lot like the Angels' Arte Moreno. An overly involved owner who makes emotional, aggressive, and poor decisions when it comes to the roster, hamstringing the front office and creating a dysfunctional atmosphere.

I think Taylor learned his lesson with the T'wolves when he brought in Connelly and turned over decision making to him. Why would he do differently with the Twins?

[Nashvilletwin]

9 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

If they lose money, why are they with so much. What evidence do you have at all? Because when they are sold for more than a billion dollars, it won't be out of charity. 

Mike, did you read the post?  Two things can be true: the Twins can lose money annually on a cash basis AND they can sell their ownership position for a huge, billion $ plus gain.  Right?

And they certainly are not selling out of charity.  As my posts make clear, they probably think they have more productive uses (and who knows what those are: property, pay down debt, family dividend, etc.) of their capital going forward than trying to compete as a small/mid market team in this environment.  They can see the trends.

 

 

[arby58]

49 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

This is actually the exact proof of why we shouldn't want him to buy the Twins. He didn't do that stuff. ARod and Lore did. It's the proof that ownership matters. He continually hired completely inept front office personnel (outside of Saunders) and destroyed that team for over a decade. They had the worst winning percentage in North American sports history just a few years ago before new owners started making decisions and they were immediately successful. The Twolves situation is why we should want Taylor nowhere near the Twins.

Seriously? Connelly was NOT hired by ARod and Lore. Nor were they in charge in 2020 when Ant was the first pick in the draft. The T'wolves got that one perfectly right. The other two consensus first picks, LaMelo Ball and James Wiseman don't add up together to Ant's career win shares (14+4.3 versus 21.6). You don't like Taylor, fine, but enough with the revisionist history.

[Guest]

7 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Mike, did you read the post?  Two things can be true: the Twins can lose money annually on a cash basis AND they can sell their ownership position for a huge, billion $ plus gain.  Right?

And they certainly are not selling out of charity.  As my posts make clear, they probably think they have a more productive use (and who knows what those are: property, pay down debt, family dividend, etc.) of their capital going forward than trying to compete as a small/mid market team in this environment.  They can see the trends.

 

 

TD ran a series that was essentially a recap of the Pohlads' real estate transactions over the last thirty years, the point of which was a complete mystery unless of course the author was attempting to prove the Pohlads have other industries and geographic opportunities to put their money than MLB and the Twin Cities.  An objective investment analysis of any portfolio that includes the Twins screams, "sell now."

[Parfigliano]

4 minutes ago, arby58 said:

Seriously? Connelly was NOT hired by ARod and Lore. Nor were they in charge in 2020 when Ant was the first pick in the draft. The T'wolves got that one perfectly right. The other two consensus first picks, LaMelo Ball and James Wiseman don't add up together to Ant's career win shares (14+4.3 versus 21.6). You don't like Taylor, fine, but enough with the revisionist history.

Within the Ball family is where LaMelo was a consensus 1st pick.  Nowhere else.

[Five minute major]

They withdrew because the Pohlad's never had any real intention of selling.  They were clearly asking way too much for the franchise which is the real reason Ishbia is out.   They DO NOT care about the fans one iota.  This is simply another "arm" of their business.  DO NOT SPEND MONEY on this team til they sell. Nothing will change.

[Vanimal46]

20 minutes ago, arby58 said:

I think Taylor learned his lesson with the T'wolves when he brought in Connelly and turned over decision making to him. Why would he do differently with the Twins?

You’re incorrect on this. 

https://www.startribune.com/timberwolves-tim-connelly-marc-lore-alex-rodriguez-new-vision-new-arena-lavelle-neal/600178083

[Nashvilletwin]

3 minutes ago, Minderbinder said:

An objective investment analysis of any portfolio that includes the Twins screams, "sell now."

This is 100% correct, apparently for the Pohlads.

The goal is to find a buyer who has a vision for making operational improvements to the franchise and/or gets a “return” from owning the business other than purely financial.

TDers (and the Pohlads too, haha) are hoping a Stevie Cohen equivalent buys the club.  I guess it’s possible, but it’s really not the reality.

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, arby58 said:

Seriously? Connelly was NOT hired by ARod and Lore. Nor were they in charge in 2020 when Ant was the first pick in the draft. The T'wolves got that one perfectly right. The other two consensus first picks, LaMelo Ball and James Wiseman don't add up together to Ant's career win shares (14+4.3 versus 21.6). You don't like Taylor, fine, but enough with the revisionist history.

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/33971725/sources-minnesota-timberwolves-hire-executive-tim-connelly-5-year-deal-worth-40m-includes-ownership-equity

"Connelly has discussed the job extensively with Timberwolves minority owners Marc Lore and Alex Rodriguez in the past week"

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/3326241/2022/05/23/tim-connelly-wolves/

"Connelly met with Timberwolves minority owners Marc Lore and Alex Rodriguez in recent days"

"That eye for talent and development, coupled with a reputation as being an outgoing and gregarious leader, piqued the interest of Lore and Rodriguez. They got things started in the negotiations, showing an urgency to build on the success the Timberwolves had in their first season in the ownership group. Within 12 hours of their initial meeting with Connelly, they presented him with an offer to let him know they were serious about moving forward. The next step was getting final approval from Taylor."

"Lore and Rodriguez have been determined to change the narrative around the Timberwolves and inject some energy into a team that hasn’t spent much time on the national radar. One of their first initiatives, dating back to their arrival last summer, was to ensure they had a top flight lead executive for the president of basketball operations."

I can keep going, but it's been well publicized that Lore and ARod lead the charge on bringing in Connelly. Taylor had to give the final sign off, but, make no mistake, ARod and Lore lead that decision. I'm not revising any history. Yes, the Wolves got Ant right. And they got KG right. And in between they had the worst winning percentage in the history of the 4 major North American sports. Pretending Taylor has been anything but a near complete disaster for the 30 years he's owned the team is revisionist history. The Wolves are 1073-1368 under Taylor. Winning percentage of  43.96%. Since KG left they're 551-856. Winning percentage of 39.16%. The Wolves have 13 winning seasons under Taylor's ownership. 17 losing seasons. 13 seasons with a winning percentage under 40%. In baseball terms, that's a 64 or 65 win team. In the same time period, the Twins have had 4 seasons of 65 or fewer wins and we all are awfully disappointed in the way the Twins have performed. 

Glen Taylor has been an absolutely horrid owner. Replacing the Pohlads with Taylor would not be an improvement in any way, shape, or form. He's been an awful owner and there's no way around that.

[Squirrel]

So no one thinks it’s possible that perhaps another owner has been chosen? Do y’all think the Ishbia brothers were the only ones interested? The more I think about it the more I think the Ishbia brothers ‘interest’ in the Twins was a ruse. Their interest was made public so quickly … no one thinks there is suspect in that?

Whatever happens with the Twins, and I still think a deal will go through with a new owner, I will enjoy the hostile takeover of the White Sox. And the only way they are getting a new stadium is if it is privately financed. And the Chicago Fire owner is interested in building a soccer pitch on the 78 … and will finance it himself, The state has already said no to the White Sox and the city doesn’t have the money.

[arby58]

2 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/33971725/sources-minnesota-timberwolves-hire-executive-tim-connelly-5-year-deal-worth-40m-includes-ownership-equity

"Connelly has discussed the job extensively with Timberwolves minority owners Marc Lore and Alex Rodriguez in the past week"

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/3326241/2022/05/23/tim-connelly-wolves/

"Connelly met with Timberwolves minority owners Marc Lore and Alex Rodriguez in recent days"

"That eye for talent and development, coupled with a reputation as being an outgoing and gregarious leader, piqued the interest of Lore and Rodriguez. They got things started in the negotiations, showing an urgency to build on the success the Timberwolves had in their first season in the ownership group. Within 12 hours of their initial meeting with Connelly, they presented him with an offer to let him know they were serious about moving forward. The next step was getting final approval from Taylor."

"Lore and Rodriguez have been determined to change the narrative around the Timberwolves and inject some energy into a team that hasn’t spent much time on the national radar. One of their first initiatives, dating back to their arrival last summer, was to ensure they had a top flight lead executive for the president of basketball operations."

I can keep going, but it's been well publicized that Lore and ARod lead the charge on bringing in Connelly. Taylor had to give the final sign off, but, make no mistake, ARod and Lore lead that decision. I'm not revising any history. Yes, the Wolves got Ant right. And they got KG right. And in between they had the worst winning percentage in the history of the 4 major North American sports. Pretending Taylor has been anything but a near complete disaster for the 30 years he's owned the team is revisionist history. The Wolves are 1073-1368 under Taylor. Winning percentage of  43.96%. Since KG left they're 551-856. Winning percentage of 39.16%. The Wolves have 13 winning seasons under Taylor's ownership. 17 losing seasons. 13 seasons with a winning percentage under 40%. In baseball terms, that's a 64 or 65 win team. In the same time period, the Twins have had 4 seasons of 65 or fewer wins and we all are awfully disappointed in the way the Twins have performed. 

Glen Taylor has been an absolutely horrid owner. Replacing the Pohlads with Taylor would not be an improvement in any way, shape, or form. He's been an awful owner and there's no way around that.

Taylor still had to approve it - and he did. I'm not suggesting Taylor should buy the Twins, but his tenure with the T'wolves, once he turned over the decisions to Connelly, have been just fine. You also gloss over that Edwards was a brilliant draft selection, and that was in 2019 - well before the 2021 buy in by Lore and ARod. If they had selected anybody else, they would not have been in the Final Four last year.

[arby58]

15 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

You’re incorrect on this. 

https://www.startribune.com/timberwolves-tim-connelly-marc-lore-alex-rodriguez-new-vision-new-arena-lavelle-neal/600178083

So what? They were minority owners, and Taylor had to approve it - and he did.

[chpettit19]

4 minutes ago, arby58 said:

Taylor still had to approve it - and he did. I'm not suggesting Taylor should buy the Twins, but his tenure with the T'wolves, once he turned over the decisions to Connelly, have been just fine. You also gloss over that Edwards was a brilliant draft selection, and that was in 2019 - well before the 2021 buy in by Lore and ARod. If they had selected anybody else, they would not have been in the Final Four last year.

I didn't gloss over, I stated plainly that they got that right. You've glossed over the entirety of the Wolves history under Taylor. Taylor approving it is far less important than the other 2 being smart enough to target the right person. The Twins got Mauer right. And Morneau. And Hunter. And Santana. And so many others. You're hyper focusing on a recent upswing that's based mostly on a hire that was hand picked by the new owners and not Taylor while ignoring the previous 2 and a half decades of Taylor getting nearly every decision wrong. Flip Saunders and listening to ARod and Lore (who were brand new to the league and still smarter than him) are the only things he's done right. In 30 years. That's a real bad track record. The Wolves getting Ant and KG right doesn't outweigh the rest of Taylor's rule. He's been objectively awful. Suggesting otherwise is revisionist history based on, apparently, 1 great pick recently. Him buying the Twins is the nightmare scenario.

[arby58]

28 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

Within the Ball family is where LaMelo was a consensus 1st pick.  Nowhere else.

https://hoopshype.com/rumor/lamelo-ball-favorite-for-no-1-pick/

https://www.sbnation.com/nba/2020/4/8/21211341/lamelo-ball-nba-draft-mock-scouting-report-highlights-video

https://www.si.com/nba/2019/12/02/lamelo-ball-nba-draft-potential-first-pick

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/30217723/source-minnesota-timberwolves-meet-potential-no-1-pick-lamelo-ball

 

[ashbury]

6 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Oh well, we have France, Coloume and Bader to keep us excited.  

These guys do not have enough money to buy the Twins.

[arby58]

1 minute ago, chpettit19 said:

I didn't gloss over, I stated plainly that they got that right. You've glossed over the entirety of the Wolves history under Taylor. Taylor approving it is far less important than the other 2 being smart enough to target the right person. The Twins got Mauer right. And Morneau. And Hunter. And Santana. And so many others. You're hyper focusing on a recent upswing that's based mostly on a hire that was hand picked by the new owners and not Taylor while ignoring the previous 2 and a half decades of Taylor getting nearly every decision wrong. Flip Saunders and listening to ARod and Lore (who were brand new to the league and still smarter than him) are the only things he's done right. In 30 years. That's a real bad track record. The Wolves getting Ant and KG right doesn't outweigh the rest of Taylor's rule. He's been objectively awful. Suggesting otherwise is revisionist history based on, apparently, 1 great pick recently. Him buying the Twins is the nightmare scenario.

You want to look at what is mostly ancient history, and I want to look at the past few years. It's sort of the HOF peak period versus career Yin and Yang. In the last three years, the T-wolves have been much better than the Twins in terms of results - and they may well be this year as well. Picking Edwards was an important decision, and there were plenty suggesting they take Ball or Wiseman, neither of which has had the career (or the upside potential of Ant. Connelly also made some trades that many fans disliked (a lot), and you know that Taylor had to sign off on those as well. As somebody recently said, 'flags fly forever' and I'd give the T'wolves at the moment a better chance to fly a flag in the near future than the Twins. If they do, the 'horrible owner' thing starts to sound off-key.

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, Minderbinder said:

The Ishbias read TD for a month and decided they didn't want to be the next billionaires to get kicked around in the Twin Cities democratic Somalia....

sat·ire | (/ˈsaˌtī(ə)r/) | noun
the use of humor, irony, exaggeration, or ridicule to expose and criticize people's stupidity or vices, particularly in the context of contemporary politics and other topical issues.