Does Simeon Woods Richardson Deserve the Twins' Final Starting Rotation Spot?

[Karbo]

All positions should be earned, not given. IMO, the guys that look the best in ST should get roster spots. Of course, that would be a perfect world.

[Twins GFP]

9 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Paddack

I think the 4th spot is Paddok's spot to lose.  Podack's contract kind of forces the Twins to give him the spot early on.  But if Padok doesn't pitch well, I could see Padook getting moved to the pen.  Another reason to give Padeck the nod is if he pitches well, the Twins could look to move him and his salary.  With the high cost of SP right now, Podock could command a semi-decent prospect.  Ultimately, it comes down to how P'Dack pitches in ST.

[Major League Ready]

41 minutes ago, Karbo said:

All positions should be earned, not given. IMO, the guys that look the best in ST should get roster spots. Of course, that would be a perfect world.

ST training has proven over and over again to be a very poor predictor of regular season success.  Should we send Wallner to AAA if he has a relatively poor ST?  How about Bailey Ober.  Should we give his spot to Matthews or Festa if he has a poor ST?

Now, there are some guys who have not given the team adequate reason to trust in past performance but putting a lot of emphasis on ST is not a common practice for ML teams.  Picking between two guys that have not previously performed or performed very inconsistently is a different matter.

[Patzky]

10 hours ago, bean5302 said:

 

Paddack

Sharif like it

[tony&rodney]

The contract/option as a significant or even important part of this conversation is counter to a goal of winning games. The best players should receive roster spots and what a player did LAST season should count.

I wonder if the Yankees are going option Luis Gil or Clarke Schmidt because of the presence of Marcus Stroman? That led me to wondering how the Yankees could get away with giving a starting position to Anthony Volpe two years ago and then letting him play again last year? Didn't any of their front office personnel know that Volpe was a rookie, young, and inexperienced. 

Which players give the team a chance to win games? Who shows the talent and skills needed to put a team in a position to win games? Last season Lopez, Ober, Ryan, and Woods Richardson were the top four starters who put the Twins in a position to win games. If SWR is healthy and not one of the five starting pitchers in April a message will resonate across the organization. 

[tony&rodney]

21 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I think the 4th spot is Paddok's spot to lose.  Podack's contract kind of forces the Twins to give him the spot early on.  But if Padok doesn't pitch well, I could see Padook getting moved to the pen.  Another reason to give Padeck the nod is if he pitches well, the Twins could look to move him and his salary.  With the high cost of SP right now, Podock could command a semi-decent prospect.  Ultimately, it comes down to how P'Dack pitches in ST.

He lost it last season.

[Linus]

23 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

The contract/option as a significant or even important part of this conversation is counter to a goal of winning games. The best players should receive roster spots and what a player did LAST season should count.

I wonder if the Yankees are going option Luis Gil or Clarke Schmidt because of the presence of Marcus Stroman? That led me to wondering how the Yankees could get away with giving a starting position to Anthony Volpe two years ago and then letting him play again last year? Didn't any of their front office personnel know that Volpe was a rookie, young, and inexperienced. 

Which players give the team a chance to win games? Who shows the talent and skills needed to put a team in a position to win games? Last season Lopez, Ober, Ryan, and Woods Richardson were the top four starters who put the Twins in a position to win games. If SWR is healthy and not one of the five starting pitchers in April a message will resonate across the organization. 

So what are you going to do with Paddack and his $7.5 million guaranteed contract?  Cut him?

[tony&rodney]

7 minutes ago, Linus said:

So what are you going to do with Paddack and his $7.5 million guaranteed contract?  Cut him?

This is a fair question. It is also an issue that this front office knew about and they still have not proceeded. It is hard to believe that the Twins have yet to receive any interest or even an offer for Chris Paddack. I empathize with how Paddack has worked to return from injuries and a quick perusal of the game logs and memory reminds us that he had a number of strong outings last season. The reality is that Paddack slots as the 7th best option in regards to starting pitchers for 2025. Outside of 2019 there isn't enough to boost him any higher. My goal in choosing players is and has been for those players who best help the team win games.

Paddack should have been traded already. He is still on the roster though and I'm putting him in the bullpen if no team offers anything before the season begins. Baldelli and others have zero reason to state firm plans until the end of March. That gives Falvey a month to find a cure for his publicly stated infatuation for Paddack that goes back to when Falvey was hired. Hell, I was high on Paddack in 2018 and 2019. I'm cured. 

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

He lost it last season.

Pitcher A

4.18 FIP, 2.1 BB9, 8 SO9, WHIP 1.39, ERA 4.99

Pitcher B

FIP 4.12, 3.2 BB9, 7.9 SO9, WHIP 1.294, ERA 4.17

Pitcher C

FIP 3.76, 3.2 BB9, 10.8 SO9, WHIP 1.32, ERA 4.9

Pitcher D

FIP 5.71, 2.6 BB9, 10.1 SO9, WHIP 1.65, ERA 6.69

 

IMO, looks like Pitcher C was the best, Pitcher A and B very similar, The difference is Pitcher A is making 7.5 guaranteed, Pitcher B has one option and Pitcher C has multiple options. Was pitcher B orC so much better that a team is going to overlook 7.5 million? Was pitcher B or C so much better that a team is going to drop what is considered pretty good known depth(pitcher c) to completely unknown depth pitcher D?

I am not a fan of Paddack, but under these circumstances I would tend to agree with giving him the opportunity to be in the starting rotation. Because with him gone and an injury the next men up are Adams, Matthews, Raya or Varland, and IMO that isn't ideal.

 

 

 

[LambchoP]

After what he did last year I think SWR has earned the #5 spot, unless his spring is disasterous or something. This leaves Festa and Mathews first up as reinforcements. I think it's probable that Paddack is injured or ineffective enough to be replaced by mid season. I'd like to see consistency with Festa and Mathews in St Paul first, but I think they'll both make MLB starts at some point this year. St Paul should have an interesting rotation with Festa, Zebby, Adams, Morris, Raya and Lewis. As others have said, Varland is cooked as a starter and should let it fly as a reliever out of the pen.

[tony&rodney]

31 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Pitcher A

4.18 FIP, 2.1 BB9, 8 SO9, WHIP 1.39, ERA 4.99

Pitcher B

FIP 4.12, 3.2 BB9, 7.9 SO9, WHIP 1.294, ERA 4.17

Pitcher C

FIP 3.76, 3.2 BB9, 10.8 SO9, WHIP 1.32, ERA 4.9

Pitcher D

FIP 5.71, 2.6 BB9, 10.1 SO9, WHIP 1.65, ERA 6.69

 

IMO, looks like Pitcher C was the best, Pitcher A and B very similar, The difference is Pitcher A is making 7.5 guaranteed, Pitcher B has one option and Pitcher C has multiple options. Was pitcher B orC so much better that a team is going to overlook 7.5 million? Was pitcher B or C so much better that a team is going to drop what is considered pretty good known depth(pitcher c) to completely unknown depth pitcher D?

I am not a fan of Paddack, but under these circumstances I would tend to agree with giving him the opportunity to be in the starting rotation. Because with him gone and an injury the next men up are Adams, Matthews, Raya or Varland, and IMO that isn't ideal.

 

 

 

You speak the line the Twins are predicted to take.

The games and season will play out and we can judge how well things went in October.

My comments may reflect some deep frustration of how the Twins build their roster and that is a half decade old now, especially heightened by the last two years. I understand and respect that others have differences in their views.

[bean5302]

Falvey is known for waiting until the last minute (too late in most cases) to make moves, and there is nothing preventing the Twins from making trades over the next 5 weeks before opening day.

At the moment, Paddack's $7.5MM has him basically neutral in trade value, but there will be injuries not only on the Twins, but other teams as well. It wouldn't surprise me to see Paddack to moved out before the season starts if he has a healthy spring and the velocity looks good. Of course, it also wouldn't surprise me to see Matthews or SWR shipped out.

Logjam today, maybe less pressure tomorrow.

[Major League Ready]

3 hours ago, Linus said:

So what are you going to do with Paddack and his $7.5 million guaranteed contract?  Cut him?

The money is spent.  If the team would be better with Festa, Matthews, or even Sands starting, they could get value out of Paddack in the BP or they could find a trade partner.  The return might not be much right now but they could dump his contract if they were convinced the team was better off with someone else starting.

It also does not have to happen immediately.  They can wait to see if everyone is healthy and how other options look this spring.  You can bet other teams will have early season injuries.  That would likely create an opportunity to trade Paddack.   It's simply smarter to sit on these options right now.

[Dman]

20 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

 It wouldn't surprise me to see Paddack to moved out before the season starts if he has a healthy spring and the velocity looks good. Of course,
Logjam today, maybe less pressure tomorrow.

Yeah it wouldn't surprise me to see Paddack traded closer to the start of the season either.  It still feels like the FO would like to bring their topline number down or maybe with new ownership they are comfortable right where they are.  Hard to say, but if Festa and SWR both look good this spring I could see a bit more pressure to Trade Paddack. 

The Falvey MO though is to always bring in some vet on a lower deal as a backend guy and Paddack fits the mold so I also wouldn't be surprised to see them hang onto him and use Festa and Matthews as depth just like last year.  They are going to need 7 or 8 arms to get through the season so they could stand pat as well.  It's a coin toss for me at this point.  

[Linus]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Pitcher A

4.18 FIP, 2.1 BB9, 8 SO9, WHIP 1.39, ERA 4.99

Pitcher B

FIP 4.12, 3.2 BB9, 7.9 SO9, WHIP 1.294, ERA 4.17

Pitcher C

FIP 3.76, 3.2 BB9, 10.8 SO9, WHIP 1.32, ERA 4.9

Pitcher D

FIP 5.71, 2.6 BB9, 10.1 SO9, WHIP 1.65, ERA 6.69

 

IMO, looks like Pitcher C was the best, Pitcher A and B very similar, The difference is Pitcher A is making 7.5 guaranteed, Pitcher B has one option and Pitcher C has multiple options. Was pitcher B orC so much better that a team is going to overlook 7.5 million? Was pitcher B or C so much better that a team is going to drop what is considered pretty good known depth(pitcher c) to completely unknown depth pitcher D?

I am not a fan of Paddack, but under these circumstances I would tend to agree with giving him the opportunity to be in the starting rotation. Because with him gone and an injury the next men up are Adams, Matthews, Raya or Varland, and IMO that isn't ideal.

 

 

 

Yep.  The idea that Paddack is just going to parked in a closet somewhere is silly.  He will be a starter until he is hurt or traded.  At this point there isn’t even room for him in the pen.  And I’m not a fan either.

[jmlease1]

It's not really all that complicated: Lopez, Ober, and Ryan are locks that everyone agrees with. Paddack is going to get in there as the 4th or 5th starter, because a) he's a veteran, b) he's an asset, and c) he's getting $7.5M. (I'm not saying this is right, I'm saying this is Twins Reality) SWR should get the inside track for the last slot because he performed well last season and has been showing improvement in his approach, stuff, etc and is now the next most experienced starter on the 40-man.

It's possible that if Festa or Matthews absolutely crushes it in Spring Training and SWR wobbles they could grab the spot, but it seems unlikely. but it is a possibility since SWR still has an option left. But that's the only real way someone else gets in the rotation.

I strongly suspect that unless Paddack looks absolutely unplayable (velocity way way down, zero control, etc) he's in the rotation regardless of performance to start the season, even if Festa and Matthews look great. the Twins prize depth and have become increasing risk-adverse. About the only way Paddack isn't in the rotation is a) he gets hurt, or b) another starter for a contender gets hurt early in Spring Training and they make the Twins a significant offer...and at least one of Festa/Matthews or Adams/Raya are looking very good.

It's not necessarily wrong to look at Paddack that way: he's performed well enough to potentially be a solid back-end starter, his value as a trade chip is probably higher if he's starting, etc. Will it get us the best pitching staff out the gate? I'd argue no, but I'm a big believer in Festa and think that SWR will out-perform Paddack.

I would have much preferred the Twins make a move by trading Paddack's contract away and getting a better hitter than France, but maybe there just wasn't a reasonable deal out there. i think the Twins starting pitching is deep enough that we don't need to put resources on a Chris Paddack any longer. but until he gets dealt, I think we're stuck with him in the rotation. Hopefully he can be league average or better in the back end.

[bigdave]

Woods-Richardson deserves the fourth spot much more than Paddack. Paddack is so danged fragile that counting on him for anything more than 15 starts this season could easily blow up in your face.

[tony&rodney]

More or less Chris Paddack is Margot, Gallo, etc. The comments confirm that CP will be in the rotation based on how the Twins see their world. So it goes.

[Mike Sixel]

24 minutes ago, bigdave said:

Woods-Richardson deserves the fourth spot much more than Paddack. Paddack is so danged fragile that counting on him for anything more than 15 starts this season could easily blow up in your face.

They have Festa and Matthews ready in AAA. I'm not worried about counting on Paddock one way or the other. 

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

My comments may reflect some deep frustration of how the Twins build their roster and that is a half decade old now, especially heightened by the last two years. I understand and respect that others have differences in their views.

I am in 100% agreement with YOU,  how they build the roster, they continuing doing this to themselves. My comment was just about where they are today.

[Linus]

45 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

It's not really all that complicated: Lopez, Ober, and Ryan are locks that everyone agrees with. Paddack is going to get in there as the 4th or 5th starter, because a) he's a veteran, b) he's an asset, and c) he's getting $7.5M. (I'm not saying this is right, I'm saying this is Twins Reality) SWR should get the inside track for the last slot because he performed well last season and has been showing improvement in his approach, stuff, etc and is now the next most experienced starter on the 40-man.

It's possible that if Festa or Matthews absolutely crushes it in Spring Training and SWR wobbles they could grab the spot, but it seems unlikely. but it is a possibility since SWR still has an option left. But that's the only real way someone else gets in the rotation.

I strongly suspect that unless Paddack looks absolutely unplayable (velocity way way down, zero control, etc) he's in the rotation regardless of performance to start the season, even if Festa and Matthews look great. the Twins prize depth and have become increasing risk-adverse. About the only way Paddack isn't in the rotation is a) he gets hurt, or b) another starter for a contender gets hurt early in Spring Training and they make the Twins a significant offer...and at least one of Festa/Matthews or Adams/Raya are looking very good.

It's not necessarily wrong to look at Paddack that way: he's performed well enough to potentially be a solid back-end starter, his value as a trade chip is probably higher if he's starting, etc. Will it get us the best pitching staff out the gate? I'd argue no, but I'm a big believer in Festa and think that SWR will out-perform Paddack.

I would have much preferred the Twins make a move by trading Paddack's contract away and getting a better hitter than France, but maybe there just wasn't a reasonable deal out there. i think the Twins starting pitching is deep enough that we don't need to put resources on a Chris Paddack any longer. but until he gets dealt, I think we're stuck with him in the rotation. Hopefully he can be league average or better in the back end.

I agree.  And you know what Paddack might still be helpful.  It would not be shocking if we saw a starter injury in spring training or early in the season and then we will be happy we have some depth.  I like Festa but Mathews and beyond are complete unknowns from a perspective of big league performance.

[JD-TWINS]

18 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I’d be really surprised if Paddack is just given a spot ahead of SWR, or Festa, to be honest. Hope he can do well obviously, but the young arms showed more than he did last year. Plus with Rocco not mentioning him, that answers the question for me.

 

Completely agree on Paddack!

Surely, a guy that has a probable maximum of 110 innings (Paddack) won’t be given a rotation spot. SWR had an ERA around 3.50 well into the season and he was around the 7th guy for rotation on March 1. Can’t imagine him not being a lock for the 4th spot …….. or 5th (semantics).

Festa seems to have much more upside than Paddack as well.

To me, Paddack at max effort 2-3 times per week for 1 1/3 - 2 innings ……. 4-5 innings per week out of the PEN & maybe a spot start once a month for 3 plus innings ……. this would bring great value to the club and allow him to shine with his best stuff when he’s in the game. Also, 18 innings per month gets him through a 6 month season with maybe one 2 week break on the IL?

[chpettit19]

I don't know how anyone could think there's not 4 spots 100% locked up already. If Lopez, Ryan, Ober, and Paddack are healthy they're all in the rotation. It's not what I'd do (I believe in Festa and would put him in the rotation and Paddack in the pen if they're both still in the org come opening day), but I don't know how anyone thinks that isn't what the Twins are planning. And it's not a completely outrageous idea as you know you're going to need at least 7 or 8 starters to get through the year. 

I expect Paddack to be unpredictable from start to start and to get injured at some point before the all-star break. The Twins believe in him. Apparently, they've been rather obsessed with him since pre-pandemic days. He's getting a rotation spot if he's healthy and still with the team. I don't know why we'd think anything else.

As for SWR, he should absolutely have the inside track to the 5th spot as camp opens. I am not a big believer in his upside, but he pitched well enough for most of last season to have earned the inside track. If his velo is down or he just looks completely lost out there during the spring he could certainly lose his spot to Festa, but he'll get the benefit of the doubt. Especially since he's down to his last option year. It may not be ideal, but options matter. You need to take those roster building rules into account.

[arby58]

20 hours ago, twinstalker said:

I would think he'd have an inside track on the 4th spot (but calling it the 5th spot because).  Does he deserve the inside track?  Of course.  Does he deserve the actual spot?  Well, not yet, of course, we've got six weeks of spring training.

I doubt a pitcher who had a solid year last year (SWR) could really lose the spot to another starting pitcher because the other pitcher had an outstanding spring. Exhibit number one is Bailey Ober, who had an outstanding spring training two years ago and still found himself at St. Paul to start the year (eventually making it back). I think the same thing here. Absent SWR being abysmal and somebody else other-worldly, SWR will be in the starting rotation at the end of Spring training. That is the way the Twins do things, and in this case, I think that is the right way.

[Major League Ready]

13 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I don't know how anyone could think there's not 4 spots 100% locked up already. If Lopez, Ryan, Ober, and Paddack are healthy they're all in the rotation. It's not what I'd do (I believe in Festa and would put him in the rotation and Paddack in the pen if they're both still in the org come opening day), but I don't know how anyone thinks that isn't what the Twins are planning. And it's not a completely outrageous idea as you know you're going to need at least 7 or 8 starters to get through the year. 

I expect Paddack to be unpredictable from start to start and to get injured at some point before the all-star break. The Twins believe in him. Apparently, they've been rather obsessed with him since pre-pandemic days. He's getting a rotation spot if he's healthy and still with the team. I don't know why we'd think anything else.

As for SWR, he should absolutely have the inside track to the 5th spot as camp opens. I am not a big believer in his upside, but he pitched well enough for most of last season to have earned the inside track. If his velo is down or he just looks completely lost out there during the spring he could certainly lose his spot to Festa, but he'll get the benefit of the doubt. Especially since he's down to his last option year. It may not be ideal, but options matter. You need to take those roster building rules into account.

While I am not totally convinced, I tend to think the 5 SP spots are pretty secure with the players you mentioned.  What I am hoping for is that the SPs we define as depth right now are good enough the early part of the year that the organization feels best served by trading Paddack by the AS break or sooner.  Of course, this would also mean everyone is healthy.  A guy can dream, right?

[arby58]

3 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

More or less Chris Paddack is Margot, Gallo, etc. The comments confirm that CP will be in the rotation based on how the Twins see their world. So it goes.

Sorry to semi-hijack this thread, but lumping Gallo with Margot is not fair. Margot was -0.9 WAR last year, with an OPS+ of 76, and a bad defensive outfielder. Gallo had a +0.5 WAR and an OPS+ of 100, meaning league average, and a decent defensive player.  They are not even close to comparable.

[Seth Stohs]

With just reading the question in the article's title, I'd say this... 

SWR deserves the #4 spot over Paddack at this point. 

[DJL44]

Paddack is going to be difficult to trade while Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn, Jose Quintana and Andrew Heaney are still looking for work.

[Jacksson]

NO.

He deserves spot #4/

After Paddack is traded, Festa gets spot #5.

[Twodogs]

I'd probably put SWR into the #4 spot in the rotation??