Striving for Consistency: A Deep Dive into Twins Pitching Prospect Andrew Morris

[Jamie Cameron]

Another developmental arm is knocking on the door of the Twins' big-league rotation. What is he focused on, heading into 2025? What are areas he can improve upon? Let's dig into one of the least-discussed Twins pitching prospects.

Image courtesy of William Parmeter

"Consistency, you know? Prove that I can be consistent." 

That's what Twins right-handed pitching prospect Andrew Morris told Twins Daily's John Bonnes in Ft. Myers recently, when asked what he needs to show in 2025 to make an impact on the big-league ball club.

It’s clear that Morris sets a high bar for himself. One could make a good-faith argument that consistency is all he’s shown since being drafted by the Twins in the fourth round of the 2022 MLB Draft (114th overall). In 2023, Morris’s first full professional season, he posted a 3.17 FIP in 84 1/3 innings across two levels of A ball. In 2024, he reached the doorstep of the majors, with a 2.86 FIP across 133 innings spanning High A, Double A, and Triple A. 

Arsenal and MiLB Outcomes
Were it not for Zebby Matthews’s incandescent 2024 season, Morris might have garnered more attention for his sustained excellence last year. Looking at the big picture, he’s part of a remarkable crop of college right-handers the Twins drafted in 2022, four of whom (Morris, Matthews, Cory Lewis, and C.J. Culpepper) have a chance to start at the highest level.

There’s more to a Morris and Matthews comparison than the fact that both achieved minor-league excellence. Both are outstanding strike-throwers, and they roughly share a pitching arsenal. Morris lives in the zone. In 2024, his strike rate hovered around 70% (that’s 4-5% above MLB average). Therein lies one of his greatest remaining challenges and conundrums; does living in the zone that much eventually hurt a pitcher? When does leaving the zone (in different counts, with different pitches, using different locations) to induce chases by the batter create more leverage for an extreme strike-thrower?

Let’s run down Morris’s 2024 arsenal, as it’s central to his next steps. He throws a four-seam fastball, curveball, slider, changeup, and cutter. As with Zebby Matthews, the Twins essentially split Morris’s cutter into two distinct pitches: a high-vert cutter deployed against left-handed hitters, and a gyro slider for use against right-handed hitters or in two-strike counts. Very loosely, Morris deploys his fastball 35% of the time (94-mph average); his slider/cutter 35% of the time (87 mph), his changeup 17% (88 mph), and his curveball 13% (75 mph).

That's a deep arsenal of pitches. He has the ability to throw strikes whenever he wants. No wonder Morris has had consistent success throughout his career, to date. So what’s there to be concerned about? The amount of miss he generates. 

Morris’s strikeout percentage has fallen with each ascending level of the minor leagues. That's hardly surprising. However, the fall was more stark when he moved from Double-A Wichita to Triple-A St, Paul. Morris struck out 28% of hitters at High-A Cedar Rapids; 25% for Wichita; and just 19% with St. Paul, albeit in a 33 2/3-inning sample. That’s not untenable, but it is more of a tightrope to navigate if he’s to become a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter, instead of a Quadruple-A innings eater. I’d emphasize that these are run-of-the-mill developmental milestones for pitching prospects, as opposed to something unique to Morris. To me, there are three areas of opportunity to explore.

Command over control
The first area of opportunity is an issue he shares with Matthews. Because he’s an extreme strike-thrower, Morris’s control and command are often conflated. I’d argue there’s an opportunity for Morris to refine the command of his secondary pitches. This isn’t about hitting the zone; it’s about spotting specific pitches in specific portions thereof, and knowing when to leave the strike zone to generate leveraged counts over hitters.

Adding a New Pitch
Morris’s second area of improvement stems from a tidbit shared with reporters (including Twins Daily’s John Bonnes) at Spring Training.

"I’m adding a sinker this year," Morris mentioned. "I need something to go in on righties, to open up the outer half of the plate."

New pitch alert! Morris is adding a sinker. Cool. But why? How might it work? Morris’s four-seamer has average velocity and not much in the way of arm-side movement (though it does have some cut), so a pitch with run is going to play well jamming right-handed hitters inside.

The Twins are following a template for Morris that the Houston Astros leveraged with Hunter Brown. Brown lowered his ERA by close to three runs after adding a sinker when he was struggling in early 2024. The premise was the same: give the guy something for right-handed hitters to think about inside, to open up the outside portion of the plate for his slider and breaking stuff.

Increased Velocity on Secondary Pitches
The final area of opportunity for Morris is increasing the consistency of velocity in his secondary offerings (firmness). Essentially, that means getting each within a range that enhances deception based on the velocity or movement characteristics of another pitch, therefore building the efficacy of not just the individual pitch but his arsenal as a whole.

Morris should get plenty of run at Triple A in 2025, and that’s a good thing. He has at least seven starting pitchers ahead of him on the depth chart. If there’s one thing we’ve learned from his first two seasons of minor-league baseball, it’s that he’ll achieve the consistency he’s looking for.

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Twins Daily’s John Bonnes contributed to reporting for this article.

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[bean5302]

Adding pitches is fine as a concept, but it doesn't work out all that often. Morris is a 5 pitch guy already. If none of those pitches is good enough to get righties out in AAA as a RHP, they're certainly not going to play at the MLB level. Nobody needs a 6th pitch, just a better 2nd pitch.

Hopefully, Morris can refine his approach and pitches to get the K rate or grounder rate up in AAA. Living in the zone giving up 25% line drives isn't going to work in MLB.

[Brett]

With 6 pitches, will his catcher need both hands to call pitches? 

[jmlease1]

i think we'll learn a lot about Morris this season in AAA. While the jump between AAA and MLB is huge and the hardest level to navigate, AA still has a lot more advanced hitters and saint Paul was a hitter's environment last year as well. If he's able to navigate it successfully and show improvement on his K rate, miss some more bats, induce more hitters to chase, etc then he's going to be a guy who has a chance.

he's a very interesting prospect, and moving up 3 levels in a season isn't easy, and he didn't it successfully. I think it's notable that one thing that stayed consistent across each level was he kept the ball in the park and didn't give up tons of hits. It was also encouraging that he was able to make 24 starts and throw 133 innings when he'd never topped 100 before.

It'll be interesting to see how the sinker workers for him and whether he starts to reduce his pitch mix at all as he refines his strongest offerings. It is possible that having so many pitches collectively raises the level on all of them if hitters never know what he's going to throw? But I suspect he'll see one or two of them drop off (or some of them blend together).

It's a great position for the Twins to have Morris in AAA, but not on the 40-man yet. Absent a substantial string of injuries/ineffectiveness early, he shouldn't need to be called on until midseason, which gives him time to work on the refinements and consistency he'll need for long-term success, and it'll be easy for the Twins MLB staff to monitor him closely from across the river.

(dang that 2022 draft might end up being a great one! Lee, Prielipp (if he can stay healthy), Morris, Jones, Lewis, Matthews, AND CJ Culpepper? Even if Schobel and/or Ross may have already hit their ceilings, this could turn out to be an epic draft with that pitching plus Brooks Lee!)

[4twinsJA]

Excited about Morris potential, not putting a lot of judgement on AAA numbers. He went from 84 to 133 innings pitched last year from the year before. Lets see what he can do at AAA with a fresh arm this year.

[Jamie Cameron]

47 minutes ago, 4twinsJA said:

Excited about Morris potential, not putting a lot of judgement on AAA numbers. He went from 84 to 133 innings pitched last year from the year before. Lets see what he can do at AAA with a fresh arm this year.

Hundred percent agree.

[Jamie Cameron]

50 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

i think we'll learn a lot about Morris this season in AAA. While the jump between AAA and MLB is huge and the hardest level to navigate, AA still has a lot more advanced hitters and saint Paul was a hitter's environment last year as well. If he's able to navigate it successfully and show improvement on his K rate, miss some more bats, induce more hitters to chase, etc then he's going to be a guy who has a chance.

he's a very interesting prospect, and moving up 3 levels in a season isn't easy, and he didn't it successfully. I think it's notable that one thing that stayed consistent across each level was he kept the ball in the park and didn't give up tons of hits. It was also encouraging that he was able to make 24 starts and throw 133 innings when he'd never topped 100 before.

It'll be interesting to see how the sinker workers for him and whether he starts to reduce his pitch mix at all as he refines his strongest offerings. It is possible that having so many pitches collectively raises the level on all of them if hitters never know what he's going to throw? But I suspect he'll see one or two of them drop off (or some of them blend together).

It's a great position for the Twins to have Morris in AAA, but not on the 40-man yet. Absent a substantial string of injuries/ineffectiveness early, he shouldn't need to be called on until midseason, which gives him time to work on the refinements and consistency he'll need for long-term success, and it'll be easy for the Twins MLB staff to monitor him closely from across the river.

(dang that 2022 draft might end up being a great one! Lee, Prielipp (if he can stay healthy), Morris, Jones, Lewis, Matthews, AND CJ Culpepper? Even if Schobel and/or Ross may have already hit their ceilings, this could turn out to be an epic draft with that pitching plus Brooks Lee!)

Even if their pitching contingent from this draft mostly ended up as relievers, there's a ton of value in that class, totally agree.

[Dman]

I really like what Morris did last year.  I know Zebby was amazing with so few walks last year, but Morris went deeper into games.  I know Morris gets knocked for the K rate, but I think this is a case where you also want to look at hits allowed as the story it helps tell is he got a lot of weak contact which led to outs and he got that weak contact early which allowed him to go longer in games.

I know there is a fine line there as K's are king because the ball doesn't get put into play, but I think the fact hitters have trouble squaring him up means there might be too much emphasis placed there.  If hitters aren't barreling his pitches and he is getting quick outs I think that makes him better than he looks on paper to some degree. 

We'll see how his season goes as AAA is pretty hard on pitchers.  Improving the K rate would be nice, but I still think he has what it takes with a slightly lessor K rate.  He had a great year and is an important piece for the future.

[gman]

He'll be a piece of a great triple A rotation this year. Should be fun to watch. Morris, Festa, Mathews, Lewis, Raya, Varland, and Adams. Won't be much room for any fast risers this year.

[SD happy]

I think most of us are in agreement that the starting five in St Paul will be a young, solid and exciting staff to watch. Who do we project to be the starting five in Double A? Culpepper, Ohl, ?? 

[Hrbeks Divot]

Great article. This is what the pitching pipeline is all about, right? They’re not all going to be top of the rotation pitchers but if you can develop them in bulk the hope is you’ll continue to fill out the rotation with quality pitchers, have some depth in case of injuries and have some ammo for trades when needed.

No need for six pitches but I think if he adds the sinker as a successful pitch against righties he can scrap a less effective pitch or two from the mix.

[ashbury]

I expect with every pitch you add, it becomes harder to avoid tipping the new one or one of the old ones.  Major league hitters are talented and can usually wallop anything if they know it's coming.  Having multiple pitches that all look the same until deep into the delivery can be effective; a bunch of clever pitches that all look different right away, maybe not so much.  I'm sure this is factored into what the coaches teach, but putting it into practice is what's hard.

On top of this is of course having command, as the article touches on.  It doesn't do much good if you can't put the pitch where you intend to and then have to fall back on a get-me-over pitch.

[twinstalker]

Morris is a current favorite of mine.  And it's a great class with Zebby and Lewis and the seemingly injured Culpepper.  I don't have a lot of expectations for CJC until he has TJS or whatever he needs, but I do like him.  Jones may be a part of that, but I haven't seen it yet in the stats.  This class is what's finally cemented that the Twins have the pitching pipeline Falvey was supposed to supply.

[thelanges5]

Good team at St. Paul this year. Will have to try and get to game or two at CHS Field. ⚾️

[tony&rodney]

11 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Adding pitches is fine as a concept, but it doesn't work out all that often. Morris is a 5 pitch guy already. If none of those pitches is good enough to get righties out in AAA as a RHP, they're certainly not going to play at the MLB level. Nobody needs a 6th pitch, just a better 2nd pitch.

Hopefully, Morris can refine his approach and pitches to get the K rate or grounder rate up in AAA. Living in the zone giving up 25% line drives isn't going to work in MLB.

Last season I only watched Morris pitch 5 times. My take was that he was living a charmed life at times and yet he set down batter after batter including any number of batters who are ranked as consensus top 100 players. 

I'm looking forward to watching him pitch at AAA where Andrew will face some veterans and stiffer competition. He was quietly dominant when I saw him, but I noticed from his game logs that he was cuffed around a few times. For some reason he reminds me of a few Cleveland pitchers who carved out a niche for themselves after getting some experience.

Sometimes it can be hard to tell who can manage at the MLB level and who cannot. We should learn more this year about Andrew Morris. If nothing else he is quite a contrast in size from Zebby Matthews, David Festa, and Simeon Woods Richardson.

[saviking]

I remember following the 2022 draft, and it seems like they drafted 10 or more pitchers in a row in the early rounds. Smart move as we were getting depleted in pitching prospects, and since pitchers are hit and miss better in numbers. 

Plus, I believe they were mostly college arms, so they had a shorter time to the majors. Now lets draft 10 right handed outfielders in a row 😄

[Linus]

As always keep running him out there and see what he can do.  Perhaps he ends up being a long man in the pen.  If his max outing would be 3 innings he could juice the fastball a little.  This is a perfect example of what many posters have advocated: take a decent starter who may struggle in the bigs and proactively make him an investment in the pen.

[Jamie Cameron]

16 hours ago, SD happy said:

I think most of us are in agreement that the starting five in St Paul will be a young, solid and exciting staff to watch. Who do we project to be the starting five in Double A? Culpepper, Ohl, ?? 

Ohl has been in AA two seasons so I'd expect him in AAA. For Wichita, something like Christian Macleod, Kyle Jones, CJ Culpepper, Connor Prielipp

[DocBauer]

16 hours ago, SD happy said:

I think most of us are in agreement that the starting five in St Paul will be a young, solid and exciting staff to watch. Who do we project to be the starting five in Double A? Culpepper, Ohl, ?? 

Right now you're probably looking at Culpepper, Ohl, MacLeod, Jones, Langenberg, and very possibly Prielipp. 

[LambchoP]

It's got to be so hard jumping three levels and playing with three different teams in one year

 Morris and Zebbys numbers had to have suffered a little bit because of the added stress. I'm excited to see what both of them can do in a full year in AAA. The 2022 draft has the potential to be one of the best drafts in recent memory. If even some of these high minors pitching prospects work out the Twins should be in a good position for a lot of years. Festa, Zebby, Morris, Adams, Raya, Lewis, Culpeper, Prelipp, Canterino... The future looks bright :) Now we just need to draft some impact bats!