2025 is a Make-or-Break Year for Twins Prospect Kala’i Rosario

[Cody Christie]

Kala’i Rosario has consistently moved up the Twins system since being drafted in 2020. Now in the upper minors, the 2025 campaign is shaping up to be a make-or-break year for the slugging outfielder.

Image courtesy of Ed Bailey, Wichita Wind Surge (photo of Kala'i Rosario)

The Minnesota Twins took a calculated risk this offseason when they left outfielder Kala’i Rosario unprotected in the Rule 5 Draft—no teams bit, leaving Rosario to continue his development within the organization. As he enters the 2025 season, the former Midwest League MVP (2023) faces a pivotal campaign that could determine his future with the franchise.

Rosario’s journey has been one of steady progression, but it has also included challenges that have tested his ability to adapt. The 2020 fifth-round pick out of high school in Hawaii has climbed the organizational ladder step by step. His 2023 campaign was his most productive to date, earning him league MVP honors at High-A Cedar Rapids. In 118 games, he hit .252/.364/.467 (.832) with 21 home runs and 27 doubles. He led the league in home runs and RBI while finishing in the top 10 in SLG, OPS, hits, doubles, and walks. It was an impressive campaign for a team that won the league championship.  

Rosario looked to build off that campaign, but an elbow injury sidelined him for a significant portion of 2024 at Double-A Wichita. The results were mixed when he was on the field as he hit .235/.321/.405 (.726) with 19 doubles and eight home runs in 67 games. His walk rate dipped from 14.2% in 2023 to 11.4% last season. Unfortunately, his strikeout rate continues to hover around 30%, which is something to watch as he gets more playing time in the upper minors. 

For Rosario, the 2025 season is about proving he belongs at the highest levels of the minor leagues and, ultimately, earning a shot at Target Field. A return to Double-A to start the year seems likely, given his limited time there in 2024, but a strong showing could quickly push him to Triple-A St. Paul. The Twins will watch closely to see if he can make the necessary adjustments against upper-level pitching.

One of Rosario’s biggest strengths is his ability to drive the ball with authority. His raw power is legitimate, and if he can tap into it consistently, he could become a 20-25 home run threat in the big leagues. He made a significant mechanical adjustment at the end of 2022, widening his base to quiet his lower half, which allowed him to generate power more efficiently. That change paid dividends in 2023, as he not only hit for power but also improved his plate discipline, cutting down on his chase rate and increasing his walks. His sample size was small in 2024, so it’s hard to decipher if he would have been able to build off those changes. 

However, questions remain about his ability to handle more advanced pitching. While he feasts on fastballs, he still struggles with quality-breaking balls. His front hip tends to pull early, making him susceptible to pitches on the outer half. Continuing to refine his approach and improving his ability to adjust mid-swing will be crucial as he faces better arms in 2025.

Defensively, Rosario is limited to a corner outfield spot, but he has a plus arm that has proven to be a weapon. He racked up 14 assists in 2023, demonstrating the ability to cut down runners with strong, accurate throws. His range is fringe-average, but if his bat plays up, he could carve out a role as a power-hitting right fielder at the major league level.

With the Twins boasting a solid group of young outfielders ahead of him, Rosario’s margin for error is shrinking. If he can build on previous success and put together a strong 2025 season, he could position himself for a late-season call-up or, at the very least, a 40-man roster spot heading into 2026. If he struggles, however, he could fall behind in the pecking order, and he might need to hope for an opportunity with another organization.

This year is all about proving he belongs. The power is there, the patience is improving, and the tools are enticing. Now, it’s time for Rosario to show the Twins that he’s more than just a prospect and that he can be a future big leaguer.

What are your impressions of Rosario? Can he be a contributor at the big-league level? Leave a comment and start the discussion. 

 

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[chpettit19]

27 triples in 2023?! Dang, that's got to be a record. Just teasing, pretty clearly mean doubles there.

[High heat]

When you are a 1 tool player you need to stay healthy and max out that effective 1 tool.  
 

The breaking ball adjustment  needs to occur and recognizing and doing damage to them is key.  While laying off them when they are off the plate. 
 

we’ll see what 25 brings at AA.

[Linus]

Another bat first guy that’s really going to have to hit to ever make the bigs.  Based on other reports I’ve read he’s really close to being a DH

[mikelink45]

This is one of those areas where there are a lot of opinions but what is the team going to do to maximize his value either to the team on the field or as trade bait?  I have no idea, but I seem his as potentially wasted talent at this point.   Was Fall League real or was it a marketing ploy to get trade value?

[Doctor Gast]

You are right. I'm not sure how it'll end. Hope he'll figure it out.

[Brett]

Seems like he’ll join Severino, Keirsey and McCusker as guys who won’t get a real shot in a Twins uniform. I’m sure there are teams out there who they will have a chance with.

[Heiny]

35 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

This is one of those areas where there are a lot of opinions but what is the team going to do to maximize his value either to the team on the field or as trade bait?  I have no idea, but I seem his as potentially wasted talent at this point.   Was Fall League real or was it a marketing ploy to get trade value?

As with all Twins prospects, i hope for the best for them.  But as trade bait at this point, I don't see alot depending on his play in 2025.  If he has a decent year,  I would expect his best value to the Twins would be as trade bait due to the players in front of him.  Good luck young man.

[Danchat]

32 minutes ago, Brett said:

Seems like he’ll join Severino, Keirsey and McCusker as guys who won’t get a real shot in a Twins uniform. I’m sure there are teams out there who they will have a chance with.

I think it's too early to say that, he'll be 23 this year and a good year at AA could really raise his stock. Though the Severino comparison is similar. 

1 hour ago, Linus said:

Based on other reports I’ve read he’s really close to being a DH

You'd think the next step would be trying him out at 1B?

[Trov]

1 hour ago, Brett said:

Seems like he’ll join Severino, Keirsey and McCusker as guys who won’t get a real shot in a Twins uniform. I’m sure there are teams out there who they will have a chance with.

McCusker has had 2 years now in organization after going undrafted and soon to be 27.  He is up to AAA.  If there are injuries and he gets passed by this year I would say he is not getting a chance, but he is not exactly someone that is saying call me up. He may have some pop, but he also struck out nearly 33% of the time.  My guess that rate does not get better against MLB pitching. 

Severino has had many years in organization and greatly regressed last year.  Keirsey is also now nearly 28, and put up some good numbers in AAA last year, but clearly FO does not feel he is MLB level with getting only 6 games despite having need in CF. 

In terms of Rosario, any team could have had him this year, they chose not to give him a shot this year.  Down the road maybe a team will be willing to if he grows more, but right now the Twins are not alone in the lack of giving a shot. 

[Dman]

I agree with the OP. We will know a lot more about Rosario after this year. I know Fangraphs feels his current approach at the plate can be exploited by pitchers with good breaking stuff and keeping the ball to the outside of the plate. He is going to need to make adjustments if he wants to move up further.  
 

I still like the power bat and he is one of the few right handed power hitting outfielders the Twins have unless Keaschall starts muscling more balls out. If his hit tool does end up legit I could see a move to first or DH as the power is appealing if he keeps the K rate reasonable.

[rickyriolo]

Can he play first base ?

[DocBauer]

Shouldn't the headline for this OP have a question mark attached the end of it?

Kid was league MVP in 2023 A+ ball at only 20yo. He dropped in 2024 at AA, but it's not only his initial introduction to AA, but he got hurt and never got a chance to really improve and finish strong. Note: his AFL performance actually showed improvement from his '23 appearance there.

So at 22yo in AA to begin again after so much time missed his career is in balance? I don't disagree with issues brought up in the OP, I just think it's more a question of "is 2025 a make or break season for him"?

[DocBauer]

Deleted

[stringer bell]

7 hours ago, Linus said:

Another bat first guy that’s really going to have to hit to ever make the bigs.  Based on other reports I’ve read he’s really close to being a DH

Which is why I had him at #1 on a "prospect trade" list. I'll say it again here--sometimes one-tool guys pan out (Brent Rooker) so I won't say that he'll never amount to much.

[twinstalker]

4 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Which is why I had him at #1 on a "prospect trade" list. I'll say it again here--sometimes one-tool guys pan out (Brent Rooker) so I won't say that he'll never amount to much.

Nobody but some Twins fans think he'll be a good prospect, so he's never going to be a major part of a trade.  If X and Rosario are the return for a player the Twins acquire, know that the other team wanted X.

The OP headline is somewhat appropriate because hopefully his name won't come up again if he does poorly.  Problem is, especially with the band boxes in Wichita and St. Paul, fans and some writers will ignore the predictive stats and only see the ones that appear positive, like they've done with Yunior Severino.

As for Rooker (and I'll add Wallner), they're somewhat outliers, and I've tried to find the rationale for why their K rates haven't led to MLB failure.  We don't have all the stats for every minor league, but I think it's sort of an art to identifying these guys.  I most certainly didn't with Rooker, but, independently, I did identify Wallner as someone who could have MLB success (fingers still crossed).  Guys with massive power appear to simply take more chances than a more normal player.  While spending a couple years analyzing Wallner, there was at least anecdotal evidence that he truly changed his approach (successfully) for important ABs.  That is, his bad predictors, including chase rate and the overriding K rate, weren't all that bad when he concentrated on not chasing, not K-ing.

Note, too, that Rooker is just finishing up his prime years while Wallner is entering his.  When their bats slow down, who knows?  We won't know until he plays in AAA what Rosario's exit velocities are, but I'm pretty sure they don't compare to those two guys.

I would love for him to have trade value, but I really don't think he does.  If he can somehow both increase his power to Cedar Rapids levels while reducing his K rate to 25%, he'll be worth a spot in the 10-20 range next year, unlike this year where I think everybody made a pretty big mistake wherever they've put him.

 

 

[ashbury]

5 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Which is why I had him at #1 on a "prospect trade" list.

Rule 5 isn't quite the same as other transactions, but the fact he wasn't taken serves as a damper to how much trade value he really would have.  Don't most teams have a middling corner outfielder somewhere in their system already?  He might bring back an infielder who has warts of his own.

[Fatbat]

Get the kid a first baseman's mitt. It worked out for Lamont Wade Jr. 

[Cody Christie]

22 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

27 triples in 2023?! Dang, that's got to be a record. Just teasing, pretty clearly mean doubles there.

Thanks. I updated the story. That would be fun if he could get that many triples. 

[Dman]

17 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Shouldn't the headline for this OP have a question mark attached the end of it?

Kid was league MVP in 2023 A+ ball at only 20yo. He dropped in 2024 at AA, but it's not only his initial introduction to AA, but he got hurt and never got a chance to really improve and finish strong. Note: his AFL performance actually showed improvement from his '23 appearance there.

So at 22yo in AA to begin again after so much time missed his career is in balance? I don't disagree with issues brought up in the OP, I just think it's more a question of "is 2025 a make or break season for him"?

Yeah I think make or break is a bit extreme but odds are if he can't fix those holes in his swing it looks like a longer tougher road for him.  Hard to glean much from last year being hurt most of the year but AA is a real challenge. I do think this year tells us if he is on track to help the big club or likely passed by other players moving through that level (i.e. Keaschal, Jenkins, Rodriguez).