3 Potential Twins Trades for the Padres' Dylan Cease

[terrydactyls]

As I have said in another article, I think the Twins should allow the new ownership to set the direction of the Twins.  Wait until the sale is completed and then move forward (hopefully by the trade deadline).  Don't jeopardize the sale when it seems to be very near.  To me, a trade for Cease might have to include retaining the Pohlads for another year or two.

[Finlander]

16 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

As I have said in another article, I think the Twins should allow the new ownership to set the direction of the Twins.  Wait until the sale is completed and then move forward (hopefully by the trade deadline).  Don't jeopardize the sale when it seems to be very near.  To me, a trade for Cease might have to include retaining the Pohlads for another year or two.

Why? An argument could be made that adding an underpriced Cy Young caliber SP to the 2025 rotation could enhance the sale, not jeopardize it. A new owner would be licking their chops at the potential of that rotation in the playoffs in their first year of ownership.

[bean5302]

Dylan Cease = +33MM in trade value
Mercedes, Martin, Morris, Paddack, Culpepper... those are all toss in guys worth nothing of note. They're sweeteners that make a tough deal palatable with lottery picks. Vazquez has negative value, and a likely reason the Padres are shopping Cease considering the Padres' biggest need might be SP is likely a payroll constraint. 

Trade #1 - Might get a chuckle and a "let's get serious" Keaschall probably doesn't help them, he's not good enough to bring back Cease on his own, and the rest of the package isn't worth noting. Cease makes the Twins' rotation a lot better.

Trade #2 - Larnach might address some LF/DH need for the Padres, but the Twins are already in a tight spot for outfielders. Paddack might not have negative value. Morris is a nothing and he has a 20:1 chance of being an MLB caliber starter. Martin is a PTBNL caliber guy. 

Trade #3 - Might work, but hurts the Twins more than it helps us so I think I'll pass.

The Padres need rotation pieces, and if you're putting together a multi-player package, the sum of the parts needs to be worth quite a bit more than the single premium piece you're asking for.

[DJL44]

Just breaking down the trades

1) Looks like fair value for a season of Cease and the comp pick but I'm not sure it fits San Diego's desire to compete this season. They would have to find somewhere to flip those prospects.

2) Paddack and Martin have no net trade value so this is really Larnach and Morris for Cease. I could see them having interest in that package if they like Morris.

3) This trade has some possibilities because the Padres seem to like Vazquez but he has negative trade value. If they like Julien they can have him, he has little trade value after his 2024 season. This one boils down to Miranda and Matthews for Cease. It's similar enough to Larnach and Morris from trade #2. I think Larnach is a much better fit for their roster than Miranda.

[Bob Twins Fan Since 61]

My thinking is its more important for the Twins to add offense.  Not saying Cease isn't a top starting pitcher but like our current pitching staff a lot.  I be much more interested in requiring Luis Arraez from San Diego.  Who they are supposedly interested in moving.  I would offer Vasquez and Castro to start the conversation.  Would likely have to eat half of Vasquez salary.  Plus, would be willing to add Julien to the deal if necessary.  I think the fan base would welcome Arraez back with open arms.  Count me as one of them.  I know picking up half of Vasquez's salary increases the payroll marginally.  But dumping Paddack;'s salary via another trade could offset that too.  Plus, getting Arraez back will help ticket sales.  

[Mark G]

13 minutes ago, Bob Twins Fan Since 61 said:

My thinking is its more important for the Twins to add offense.  Not saying Cease isn't a top starting pitcher but like our current pitching staff a lot.  I be much more interested in requiring Luis Arraez from San Diego.  Who they are supposedly interested in moving.  I would offer Vasquez and Castro to start the conversation.  Would likely have to eat half of Vasquez salary.  Plus, would be willing to add Julien to the deal if necessary.  I think the fan base would welcome Arraez back with open arms.  Count me as one of them.  I know picking up half of Vasquez's salary increases the payroll marginally.  But dumping Paddack;'s salary via another trade could offset that too.  Plus, getting Arraez back will help ticket sales.  

Couldn't have said it better, myself.  😉

[nicksaviking]

SD trades prospects, they don't trade FOR prospects. Also, the Twins weren't able to do anything to fill offensive holes this offseason, I don't see them trading more than two MLB-ready bats.

I mentioned it in another thread, but if this thing is real, my guess is it's Vazquez and Duran. Duran is a really good reliever, but the Twins have to be a bit frustrated that they can ONLY use him in the 9th, even when using Jax in the 9th is preferable.

[Cory Engelhardt]

25 minutes ago, Bob Twins Fan Since 61 said:

My thinking is its more important for the Twins to add offense.  Not saying Cease isn't a top starting pitcher but like our current pitching staff a lot.  I be much more interested in requiring Luis Arraez from San Diego.  Who they are supposedly interested in moving.  I would offer Vasquez and Castro to start the conversation.  Would likely have to eat half of Vasquez salary.  Plus, would be willing to add Julien to the deal if necessary.  I think the fan base would welcome Arraez back with open arms.  Count me as one of them.  I know picking up half of Vasquez's salary increases the payroll marginally.  But dumping Paddack;'s salary via another trade could offset that too.  Plus, getting Arraez back will help ticket sales.  

They can do both, no?

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, LambchoP said:

I don't think we're getting Cease but it's fun to dream. He is only a rental and we aren't signing him long term so we have to look at him as a one year and done, plus a QO draft pick. SD has some interest in Vasquez. I don't think Vasquez and a near ready MLB pitcher like Mathews, Raya or Adams gets it done. What if we pay down half of Vasquez's salary?

Vasquez and 5 million dollars 

Mathews/Raya/Adams C. Lewis

Does that get it done? Maybe throw in a AA or A good looking prospect.

 

 

Vazquez - Matthews (Catcher & fringe MLB ready arm) - Castro (LF & IF depth)….that’s it

Gotta be able to acquire a one year contract guy for maximum of 3 players.

[Stew]

Can't do any of  the three. #1 doesn't allow for salary relief. We are at 137 million. Cease would add almost 14 million. #2 would  lose 2 outfielders , we will be down 2 already from last year. Plus possibly Castro. #3 we would lose 2 starting   infielders , plus again down kirloff and Castro. It would only work with a combination of major and minor leagues.

[terrydactyls]

1 hour ago, Finlander said:

Why? An argument could be made that adding an underpriced Cy Young caliber SP to the 2025 rotation could enhance the sale, not jeopardize it. A new owner would be licking their chops at the potential of that rotation in the playoffs in their first year of ownership.

And an argument could be made that new owners might be thinking long term instead of a one year shot in the dark

[JD-TWINS]

19 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

They can do both, no?

Numerous approaches to do both, obviously - one look:

Matthews - Vasquez - Castro for Cease ….1 yr (young arm that’s close - Vet Catcher - LF & IF depth)……..sign Luke Maille for #2 Catcher

Julien - Paddack - Culpepper - AA guy for Arraez …..1yr (High risk 2B/DH - Vet pitcher w/limited innings - Young improving arm - 3B/1B/DH depth)

Cease - Lopez - Ober - Ryan - SWR ……. possible to get 4 guys with 13-16 wins

PEN Adds to ‘24 crew Varland - Headrick - Topa - Stewart - Blewett

Lee - Lewis - Buxton - Wallner - Correa - Arraez - Larnach - Jeffers - Miranda

Maille - Martin - Kiersey - Grichuk/Keaschall?

 

[jorgenswest]

The Orioles’ trade for Burnes happened right after the proposed sale was announced though the sale wasn’t approved and finalized until about two months later.

The Twins have been quiet this winter as the sale process has moved forward. A sign that a deal is imminent might be a trade for someone like Cease.

[tony&rodney]

Preller only trades Cease to fill positions on the team that are currently open. The first agenda is a starting pitcher that is controllable, Secondly, a left fielder to hold the spot for a couple of years. Third, a mid level  prospect or two that have a shot. A DH would be of interest too. Lastly, a catcher to fold into their current group. 

Looking around baseball, the options for Preller are slim. The team can maintain their payroll but they are not adding. Thus the Twins pop up as a bonafide partner. Except the Twins don't really need Cease and can or should be able to dictate the direction of discussions.

If I'm Preller, I'm asking for Zebby Matthews, Trevor Larnach, Edouard Julien, Cory Lewis, and Christian Vazquez. That is a pile of bodies. For those who use BTV (I don't) this is likely an overpay as a guess. 

If I'm Falvey, I am thinking about this as a possible positive. Perhaps counter with Castro instead of Larnach and add $4 million to the Twins side to sweeten the pot.

[Brandon]

2 hours ago, Otaknam said:

I don’t think SWR’s value is that high. Right now his upside is as a number five starter who might give you five innings. Unless his velocity improves to a consistent 95 or higher or his secondary pitches become better, he’s locked into a number five starter IMO.

 

He costs near the league minimum and he can be a 3-4 starter.  He was that for the Twins last year.  That is very valuable, especially to a team that is past their budget with several holes to fill.  My trade proposal fills three of their 4 holes for even cost.  All they would need is a DH.  We have Castillo for LF till ERod is ready.  And several potential backup Catchers already, so my trade doesn’t hurt the Twins much.  

[bean5302]

Prospective owners are not casual baseball fans on Twins Daily who are hoping to watch a good team on TV. Owners want value growth potential and flexibility. No owner is changing their bid based on 1 year of Dylan Cease or the prospects it would require to get him. You could trade both Walker Jenkins and Emmanuel Rodriguez for Dylan Cease and prospective ownership wouldn't change their bid.

Derek Falvey is going to be the driving force behind any roster changes at this point because Falvey is actively auditioning for a job, either with the Twins or a new team.

[Cory Engelhardt]

22 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Preller only trades Cease to fill positions on the team that are currently open. The first agenda is a starting pitcher that is controllable, Secondly, a left fielder to hold the spot for a couple of years. Third, a mid level  prospect or two that have a shot. A DH would be of interest too. Lastly, a catcher to fold into their current group. 

Looking around baseball, the options for Preller are slim. The team can maintain their payroll but they are not adding. Thus the Twins pop up as a bonafide partner. Except the Twins don't really need Cease and can or should be able to dictate the direction of discussions.

If I'm Preller, I'm asking for Zebby Matthews, Trevor Larnach, Edouard Julien, Cory Lewis, and Christian Vazquez. That is a pile of bodies. For those who use BTV (I don't) this is likely an overpay as a guess. 

If I'm Falvey, I am thinking about this as a possible positive. Perhaps counter with Castro instead of Larnach and add $4 million to the Twins side to sweeten the pot.

If Cease is traded to any team, I’d be surprised if more than 3 players go back for him. That many guys in one deal is difficult with 40 man spots. 
 

Of course, I just checked, San Diego only has 35 players currently on their 40 man.

Zebby and Larnach and Vazquez and someone like Winokur for Cease and maybe a reliever would work I would imagine

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

SD trades prospects, they don't trade FOR prospects.

True, which is why I'm asking for a couple in any trade with San Diego.

Vazquez, Castro, Paddack, Duran, Julien

for

Cease, Arraez, prospects

[nicksaviking]

31 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

True, which is why I'm asking for a couple in any trade with San Diego.

Vazquez, Castro, Paddack, Duran, Julien

for

Cease, Arraez, prospects

I don't think I want Arraez back though. I know the BA is nice, but it's really hallow; only singles and he's not even drawing many walks anymore. I'm not giving up extra for him.

[Mark G]

45 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I don't think I want Arraez back though. I know the BA is nice, but it's really hallow; only singles and he's not even drawing many walks anymore. I'm not giving up extra for him.

When 580 hits over the last 3 years is hollow, I don't recognize the game anymore.  

In those 3 years, yes, he has only walked 109 times; not much, I agree.  He has also only struck out 108 times; I will take that ratio over any one in the Twins organization right now.  As a wise man once said: put the ball in play and the worst that can happen is you are out.  Don't put the ball in play (strike out) and the ONLY thing that can happen is you are out.  

I would give up extra for him.  

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

If Cease is traded to any team, I’d be surprised if more than 3 players go back for him. That many guys in one deal is difficult with 40 man spots. 
 

Of course, I just checked, San Diego only has 35 players currently on their 40 man.

Zebby and Larnach and Vazquez and someone like Winokur for Cease and maybe a reliever would work I would imagine

I would never trade Winokur. He has the floor of an A+ or AA player, but he has a ceiling above Walker Jenkins. Winokur is an amazing athlete. Think Oneill Cruz or maybe even Elly de la Cruz. He is just at the learning stages of playing baseball and it is way uncertain where he is headed. He is a keeper.

Agree (mol) on the 3-1 ratio, but threw in Julien and Cory Lewis as sweeteners to get it done. I knew San Diego had room on the 40 person roster, which is another reason why Preller wants MLB players and not prospects for 2-4 years from now.

[mnfireman]

48 minutes ago, Mark G said:

When 580 hits over the last 3 years is hollow, I don't recognize the game anymore.  

In those 3 years, yes, he has only walked 109 times; not much, I agree.  He has also only struck out 108 times; I will take that ratio over any one in the Twins organization right now.  As a wise man once said: put the ball in play and the worst that can happen is you are out.  Don't put the ball in play (strike out) and the ONLY thing that can happen is you are out.  

I would give up extra for him.  

Arraez was on pace (162 games) to score 108 runs, drive in 25 runs and have 201 hits with a slash line of .299/.347/.372  (.719 OPS) for the Marlins, only one Marlin batter had more than 70 RBI.

He was on pace (162 games) to score 88 runs, drive in 41 runs and have 220 hits with a slash line of .318/.346/.398 (.744 OPS) for the Padres, batting in front of Tatis, Profar, Machado, Merrill, Bogaerts and Croenenworth, 4 of whom had 83 or more RBI (Tatis was on pace for 78 RBI, Bogaerts 65).

HIs Marlins start was not slow. The Padres had better hitters behind him. He was going to score more runs for Miami.

He was 4th in MLB AVG, 28th in MLB OBP, 100th in MLB SLG, and 77th in MLB OPS. He was -13 OAA defensively at 1B and 2B. His whole game revolves around his AVG. When that starts to fail he will be out of MLB.  

[sweetmusicviola16]

3 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Prospective owners are not casual baseball fans on Twins Daily who are hoping to watch a good team on TV. Owners want value growth potential and flexibility. No owner is changing their bid based on 1 year of Dylan Cease or the prospects it would require to get him. You could trade both Walker Jenkins and Emmanuel Rodriguez for Dylan Cease and prospective ownership wouldn't change their bid.

Derek Falvey is going to be the driving force behind any roster changes at this point because Falvey is actively auditioning for a job, either with the Twins or a new team.

I have said the same about Falvey/Zoll. 2025 is a very big year for them. With that in mind I really do expect them to be active traders in the next two months. Not much change as far as the remaining FA market and their involvement.

[DJL44]

3 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

I don't think I want Arraez back though. I know the BA is nice, but it's really hallow; only singles and he's not even drawing many walks anymore. I'm not giving up extra for him.

Arraez is likely to receive, and turn down, a qualifying offer. He's a free draft pick.

[ashbury]

13 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Arraez is likely to receive, and turn down, a qualifying offer. He's a free draft pick.

It's entirely possible he and his agent decide he's money ahead to accept the QO and then try for the multi-year contract a year hence; he'll get slightly better offers without the burden of the draft pick attached to him.   This would be in a case where the agent estimates that the free-agency offers AAV will be somewhere in the neighborhood of the QO value, or of course lower.  (The logic would not apply to someone expecting 6@$30M+ for instance.)

Then you're paying top-dollar for a singles hitter for another year.

[nicksaviking]

2 hours ago, Mark G said:

When 580 hits over the last 3 years is hollow, I don't recognize the game anymore.  

In those 3 years, yes, he has only walked 109 times; not much, I agree.  He has also only struck out 108 times; I will take that ratio over any one in the Twins organization right now.  As a wise man once said: put the ball in play and the worst that can happen is you are out.  Don't put the ball in play (strike out) and the ONLY thing that can happen is you are out.  

I would give up extra for him.  

Sorry, but where does he play? 1B? DH? For as fun as his singles are, his .739 OPS was worse than Miranda's .763 last year. Like today's game or not, Miranda is a better offensive option, and nobody on this board seems excited about him.

[nicksaviking]

19 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Arraez is likely to receive, and turn down, a qualifying offer. He's a free draft pick.

But that means you'd have to trade the equivalent of that draft pick at minium to get him.  I don't want to do that.

[kroll]

#1, #2' or #3. Go for it!

For God's sake its been 34 years since we've been in the World Series.

Love all the "Ball-guys" looking to keep prospects and build a "perennial long time contender"...... Please......34 years and that's your strategy?

Royce Lewis and Miranda, Wallner, Brooks Lee etc.....great prospects right?

Give me a break......

Trade anyone someone else wants for a valuable " rental".

We DON'T sign great ballplayers in free agency.

Quit kidding yourselves on building some outstanding - longtime great ball club.

AIN'T GONNA HAPPEN BOYS!

 

[Mark G]

15 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Sorry, but where does he play? 1B? DH? For as fun as his singles are, his .739 OPS was worse than Miranda's .763 last year. Like today's game or not, Miranda is a better offensive option, and nobody on this board seems excited about him.

Nobody........I am.   And if I had to choose between Arraez and Miranda........give me a break.  🙃

[tony&rodney]

7 hours ago, Otaknam said:

I don’t think SWR’s value is that high. Right now his upside is as a number five starter who might give you five innings. Unless his velocity improves to a consistent 95 or higher or his secondary pitches become better, he’s locked into a number five starter IMO.

 

I won't ever argue that Simeon is currently a mid rotation stalwart, but something about Woods Richardson tells me he is capable of carving out a real strong career as a guy who pitches really well and never gets his due respect until he is 6-8 years into his roll through MLB. Simeon will go 30 starts, 170+ innings, and put up a 4.00 or slightly better ERA and surprise people. Don't sleep on how good Woods Richardson can be.