Twins Listening On Trade Inquiries About Pablo Lopez

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, dxpavelka said:

Walker at $14 Million per sounds lovely.  Of course he signed for $20 million per.  So you're saying we could have traded away our best SP for a slightly above average 1B? Sign me up.

 

Walker signed for 3 years and $60 million. I suggested that a conversation should have been had with Walker, offering more money in total but spread out over more time as a way to lower the annual cost (5 years and $70 million). The idea of not being in on Walker doesn't bother me but it might be a good idea to shoot higher than fourth place. So you read that wrong, no big deal. You can't trade free agents.

I have no idea how you say "traded away our best SP for a slightly above average 1B?" The thread is discussing the Twins listening on Pablo Lopez. I have specifically called for the Twins to hold any team wanting Lopez for a ransom, suggesting that Boston send Jarren Duran if they want Lopez. That is extremely unlikely.  

In any event the Twins are doing nothing. When you read various sites, pretty much all of the writers state that they hear the Twins have no plans but are "listening."

[Seansy]

I have long been of the opinion that there is no such thing as an touchable player for trades.

With that said, trading Lopez now would require a massive haul to justify trading him. There are a few large market teams with enough interesting top 100 prospects to consider it, but if the reaction isn't an obvious win for the Twins than they need to pass.

[Cory Engelhardt]

1 hour ago, Twodogs said:

I mean, I see what you're saying but since the trade, Berrios has started 108 games, 44 wins, 620 innings, 570 strikeouts.  Now granted, I hope and pray SWR wins 20+ for the next 5 - 6 years in a row.  You know what I'm saying, I mean I want SWR to do great things, and in 5 years from now we could bring up real good arguments as to why SWR is better than Berrios.  But right at this moment, to say these things is probably a little bit out of line, even with the WAR statistic.  That trade is definitely not over with, but I'm pretty sure Berrios would have made the Twins better for the last 3 seasons than SWR has.  I mean how long will it take for SWR to even throw 620 innings as a Twins starter?  I hope not long, but his track record so far says it'll take awhile.  

Berrios is 6 years older than SWR. In Berrios’s age 23 season he threw 12 more innings at the mlb level than SWR did last year. He has been durable, and he has a fan in me.

Based on only the numbers you laid out, expecting SWR to get those inning and strikeout totals isn’t really a big ask, barring health. 
 

I hope both of them have long and productive careers

[IndianaTwin]

On 12/20/2024 at 5:39 PM, Twodogs said:

I mean, I see what you're saying but since the trade, Berrios has started 108 games, 44 wins, 620 innings, 570 strikeouts.  Now granted, I hope and pray SWR wins 20+ for the next 5 - 6 years in a row.  You know what I'm saying, I mean I want SWR to do great things, and in 5 years from now we could bring up real good arguments as to why SWR is better than Berrios.  But right at this moment, to say these things is probably a little bit out of line, even with the WAR statistic.  That trade is definitely not over with, but I'm pretty sure Berrios would have made the Twins better for the last 3 seasons than SWR has.  I mean how long will it take for SWR to even throw 620 innings as a Twins starter?  I hope not long, but his track record so far says it'll take awhile.  

This is one where it's a tricky comparison. The Blue Jays really only got 1.5 years of Berrios from the trade. They've gotten the rest by virtue of signing him to an extension. By virtue of having a year on his contract when they signed the extension, they had the exclusive ability to sign him, but the reality is they only had 1.5 years of guarantee from the trade.

Frankly, I'd probably summarize this as one where both teams won, which is what ought to happen. The notion of every trade needing to have a "winner" and a "loser" is a fallacy. I think all in all, both teams are pleased with how the trade worked out.  

[dxpavelka]

6 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Walker signed for 3 years and $60 million. I suggested that a conversation should have been had with Walker, offering more money in total but spread out over more time as a way to lower the annual cost (5 years and $70 million). The idea of not being in on Walker doesn't bother me but it might be a good idea to shoot higher than fourth place. So you read that wrong, no big deal. You can't trade free agents.

I have no idea how you say "traded away our best SP for a slightly above average 1B?" The thread is discussing the Twins listening on Pablo Lopez. I have specifically called for the Twins to hold any team wanting Lopez for a ransom, suggesting that Boston send Jarren Duran if they want Lopez. That is extremely unlikely.  

In any event the Twins are doing nothing. When you read various sites, pretty much all of the writers state that they hear the Twins have no plans but are "listening."

You basically said that trading away Lopez would have allowed us to be in on Walker.  Pretty much the theme of your comment. 

 

[old nurse]

18 hours ago, BiggestRoccoFan said:

Do you actually trust this incompetent front office to make a half way decent trade?

How did they get Lopez in the first place and to a contract that at the moment looks to be a bargain.  Yup. They are incompetent 

[old nurse]

14 hours ago, Twodogs said:

I mean I am by no means Pohlad fans, but do people think the Pohlads are sitting by the phone trying to trade away arguably their best pitcher?  This is Falvey's job, so if there is someone to be pissed at it would be Falvey.  I'm thinking the Pohlads said, "hey get the payroll around this number." and now it's Falvey who gets to make the decision on how it gets there.  That's just my thoughts.  

It is Zoll’s job to trade. Falvey may have to approve but there wouldn’t be a need to have a gm if it was Falvey’s job to do the trades. 

[JD-TWINS]

21 hours ago, BiggestRoccoFan said:

Just look at the trades this FO has botched over the last few years and tell me I am wrong.

Arraez for Lopez …… Cruz for Ryan …… mistakes as well, bad luck, sure! Same all over baseball. The FO’s that look better in the media have $$ to spend on FA’s each year to mask any trade deficiencies…….TWIN’s FO doesn’t have that luxury/flexibility. They have drafted fairly well - seem to be developing pitching fairly well. Easy to just bitch when players don’t perform to their levels of expectations…….”the terrible FO …… Baldelli is a baffoon….” Players gotta play Lee - Lewis - Jeffers - Kepler - Julien ………none helped after the All-Star break……Ryan got hurt. I don’t see any of that being a Front Office failure.

[Otaknam]

21 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I'd do the Paddack trade again, and I'd 100% do the Mahle trade again. Just because the results didn't work out doesn't mean the process wasn't fine. 

You have the power of hindsight saying these things. At the time of the trades people were fine with them.

As we know, hindsight is 20/20 with trades. The issue with the Paddock and Mahle trades is that they had injury concerns that were known. The FO just hoped it wouldn’t be a problem. It was. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

5 minutes ago, Otaknam said:

As we know, hindsight is 20/20 with trades. The issue with the Paddock and Mahle trades is that they had injury concerns that were known. The FO just hoped it wouldn’t be a problem. It was. 

I’ll only add; wouldn’t it be just as easy to say; if you are a pitcher in baseball, you would have injury concerns?

[Otaknam]

The FO and ownership should not make any major trades leading up to a potential new ownership, especially one that includes your top starter who has a manageable contract. Trading Lopez to save money and weakening the three solid starters in the hopes that some young guys like Festa, Morris, Raya and Matthews emerge would make an already dreary offseason worse. Especially if the overpaid Vasquez with his .210 average and high strikeout rate is still on the team. That’s how you make an already apathetic fan base totally disinterested. 

[JD-TWINS]

19 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Pablo Lopez has huge value and there is less reason to consider trading him right this second than there was this morning. With Lopez traded, the Twins might have had room to sign Christian Walker to a 5 year/ $70 miilion contract or at least engage on the topic. Now Walker has signed with Houston. The continued and total inaction by the Twins tells me the team is largely already completed. We shouldn't have to worry about a trade of Lopez. 

I’ve seen this 5 year $70M comment a couple places here……..why would Walker play 2 more years for $14M/yr…….seems obvious you play 3 years for $20M and then try to get another year or two somewhere (at an even more inflated market in ‘28) for $15M? I realize you are just spitballing. Try something to be involved seems to be the theme. Agree.

I get the point of freeing up payroll but it’s about improving the Club not just getting a shiny new toy or being involved in FA with all the other big boys. The trade of Lopez, to me, would be about the return of an impact bat and/or filling the void at C or 1B. If they could get a Tristan Casas at 1B from Boston and a catching prospect that isn’t “a stretch” it may be worthwhile? 

Take the $22M from Lopez - trade Vazquez (eat $4M) & gain $6M - trade Paddack & gain $7.5M = $35.5M gained - $10M to meet budget……$25.5M to spend. Bring in Curt Cassalli for $2.5M and place hold until prospect is ready in ‘26. Take the other $23M and improve the OF…..fringe FA starter?

Ride with Ryan - Ober - Festa -SWR - maybe Martin Perez or Andrew Heaney ……. Morris - Matthews …….. Culpepper, etc.

Personally, I keep Lopez! Do the Boston trade for Duran - Matthews - Paddack - Vazquez. Sox get youth pitcher - veteran pitcher - top 5-10 Closer in the game - veteran Catcher for $6M……seems to make sense for Boston if they sign some FA offensive help as well. Their OF star, Duran, is not getting traded!

[arby58]

23 hours ago, LambchoP said:

Trading our ace away would make it impossible for ownership to keep up the fascade of trying to be competitive this year . Plus, it would be just one more slap in the face to our already used and abused fanbase.

Of course, it depends on what you get in return. I tend to agree with the recently written comment that the only 'untouchables' are Correa and Buxton (because of no-trade contracts), Lewis, and Jenkins. Everything else is negotiable.

[arby58]

11 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

This is one where it's a tricky comparison. They really only got 1.5 years of Berrios from the trade. They've gotten the rest by virtue of signing him to an extension. By virtue of having a year on his contract when they signed the extension, they had the exclusive ability to sign him, but the reality is they only had 1.5 years of guarantee from the trade.

Frankly, I'd probably summarize this as one where both teams won, which is what ought to happen. The notion of every trade needing to have a "winner" and a "loser" is a fallacy. I think all in all, both teams are pleased with how the trade worked out.  

Excellent points. It's too early to judge that trade. SWR is 24 and Berrios 30. Regardless, last year SWR had a 2.0 WAR, and Berrios was 2.2 - hardly anything to differentiate the two. There is also a major difference in salary, and if the Twins had re-signed Berrios they probably don't have Lopez - and Lopez' WAR the last 2 years combined is 5.8, while Berrios is 4.6. Finally, SWR wasn't even the trade centerpiece for the Twins. While I'm not a big Martin fan, he may still become a serviceable MLB player.

[tony&rodney]

43 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Try something to be involved seems to be the theme. Agree.

Teams are filling up their roster needs while the Twins seem to percolate around the idea their team is already complete. Maybe it is, as many here on Twins Daily believe. Seems like there were some opportunities and I would suggest there still are some deals possible.

 

46 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

If they could get a Tristan Casas at 1B from Boston and a catching prospect that isn’t “a stretch” it may be worthwhile? 

The comments expose differences among our beliefs. I never put Walker in my plans at 1B because i put Royce Lewis there. The idea of exploring Walker seemed worthwhile because of his athleticism at a position where the Twins could benefit from his skills. Tristan Casas has big time power, similar to Matt Wallner. Unlike Matt, he is slow and would be a real downer for our less than sterling infielders. Casas is a strictly a DH, but not nearly in Yordan Alvarez territory as a bat. in fact, I would not trade any of our top three prospect bats for him. A number of people have advocated trading for Casas. We simply disagree on him. I did state that Boston is extremely unlikely to even consider trading Duran, but there were a few articles out of Boston similar to what we read about Lopez. The Red Sox could really use a top flight starter and they are flush with cash and outfielders. Any trade of Pablo Lopez needs to lean in the Twins favor because a healthy starting pitcher of his type is pretty rare. Finally, your proposed trade for Casas seems like something Boston would favor and it might benefit the Twins. However, I really believe in Matthews more than Casas and Duran should be the topic of many queries sent to Falvey, which may bear better fruit. All of this is total wishing/"spitballing"  because the indications favor the position of Falvey being content with the current roster.

[mnfireman]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

I’ve seen this 5 year $70M comment a couple places here……..why would Walker play 2 more years for $14M/yr…….seems obvious you play 3 years for $20M and then try to get another year or two somewhere (at an even more inflated market in ‘28) for $15M? I realize you are just spitballing. Try something to be involved seems to be the theme. Agree.

The 3 year deal he just signed covers his age 34-36 seasons, he more than likely doesn't get another contract at age 37, much less at $15 MM/year. If he had an offer for more than 3 years he probably would have taken it.

[JD-TWINS]

2 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

The 3 year deal he just signed covers his age 34-36 seasons, he more than likely doesn't get another contract at age 37, much less at $15 MM/year. If he had an offer for more than 3 years he probably would have taken it.

Why play for 40% less per year? It’s not a longevity challenge. You don’t think that if it were important for him he wouldn’t have countered at $15M for 5 years? He has/his agent have a definite say in “what he’s offered”…..it’s a negotiation.

What would Carlos Santana be worth if it were currently the 2028 market? He’s worth $7-$8M now per reports here. He’s 39. Walker has won 3 consecutive Gold Gloves to Santana’s one. Walker is better offensively……. with health, it makes no sense for him…….the net is he’d be playing the last 2 years for $5M/year if he contrasted it to his 3yr @ $60M.

I don’t understand the logic that a team will guarantee money now through age 39 but at age 37 there will be zero interest?

[saviking]

On 12/20/2024 at 9:38 AM, nicksaviking said:

Removing Vazquez arguably improves the team. removing Lopez greatly injures it.

If they trade Lopez, they might as well just throw in the towel and trade all the contracts they don't like. I've got no interest watching the Pohlad's last middle finger to the fans. The new owners can try to win me back.

If they trade Lopez, they might trade Correa as well. Save 58k in salary cap and pick up a ton of talent. 

[mnfireman]

41 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Why play for 40% less per year? It’s not a longevity challenge. You don’t think that if it were important for him he wouldn’t have countered at $15M for 5 years? He has/his agent have a definite say in “what he’s offered”…..it’s a negotiation.

What would Carlos Santana be worth if it were currently the 2028 market? He’s worth $7-$8M now per reports here. He’s 39. Walker has won 3 consecutive Gold Gloves to Santana’s one. Walker is better offensively……. with health, it makes no sense for him…….the net is he’d be playing the last 2 years for $5M/year if he contrasted it to his 3yr @ $60M.

I don’t understand the logic that a team will guarantee money now through age 39 but at age 37 there will be zero interest?

By your logic he should have taken the QO - $21.1 MM is more than $20 MM/ year. Players want long term security, even if it means a lower AAV. We don't know what he and his agent were asking for and I never said he would sign for 5/$70 mm, which is not 40% less than he signed for, 5/$60MM would be, I said if he had an offer over 3 years he probably would have taken it. 

Walker could very well be the exception, but most MLB position players stats start to drop off pretty quick after age 36-37, whether it be due to eroding skills or injury. 

 

[jctwins]

7 minutes ago, saviking said:

If they trade Lopez, they might trade Correa as well. Save 58k in salary cap and pick up a ton of talent. 

Considering the uncertainty around the next few years, I really don't hate this plan.

[Rigby]

16 hours ago, Seansy said:

I have long been of the opinion that there is no such thing as an touchable player for trades.

 

HR just called. Said they are extremely pleased with your position.

[arby58]

2 hours ago, saviking said:

If they trade Lopez, they might trade Correa as well. Save 58k in salary cap and pick up a ton of talent. 

Nearly impossible to trade Correa because of his no-trade contract. His agent says he likes it here.  Because of that leverage, I doubt they could get full value for him, as the other team would likely have to 'sweeten the pot' contract-wise to get Correa to agree to lift the no-trade clause.

[sweetmusicviola16]

I'd like to not trade Lopez, but if the offer is overwhelming it should indeed be considered. And yes this FO has made some good trades. As far as a trade goes, you wouldn't expect to get a Lopez back for Lopez. Maybe the acquisition could replace Lopez in a few years but not now. With that said it would be frustrating as a fan to see us take a step back at a position that we struggled with for years, many years.

[sweetmusicviola16]

I would be ticked to make this move to appease this years "budget."

[mnfireman]

With the team supposedly up for sale, I don't think any of the "big ticket" players should be traded, that would be like buying a house only to find out the previous owner sold off all the appliances...

[ashbury]

On 12/20/2024 at 8:11 AM, Cory Engelhardt said:

For people that like looking at baseball trade values, think at least double of what Pablo is valued at. That's what I mean. Not equal value, double.

I wouldn't want to get down into the weeds of what exact multiplier to use, but in general, I concur.  BTV is a very valuable way to look at trades, normalizing around a dollar value that surely at least resonates with one manner in how a front office would look at things; it's a step up from fans saying "these two guys are both good, make a trade of one for the other" if the contract statuses are unequal.  But when it comes to well-above average established players, there is an additional factor that must be considered: "we have him, and you don't."  There are only so many difference-maker players out there.  If a contending team wants one, to put them into serious championship contention, then they need to expect to pay a premium for the privilege; the team who holds that player's contract might also have aspirations too.  IOW an overpay.

On 12/20/2024 at 8:28 AM, mnfireman said:

The ol' Hot Stove is very cold this year....Falvey has stated multiple times he gets asked about the availability of all players and, in good faith, listens to the other teams pitch.

National baseball writers and front offices have a symbiotic relationship.  When I read of an item like this one, I choose to assume that the FO opted to give the writer a minor "scoop" that fits with their own aims.  It's like placing a want ad, one that you know 29 other front offices will read, to encourage some additional bidders.  Of course you are right that any FO will listen to another FO at any time.  But a source within a FO giving out information implies a little bit of active intent.

[old nurse]

3 hours ago, saviking said:

If they trade Lopez, they might trade Correa as well. Save 58k in salary cap and pick up a ton of talent. 

You would pick up potential but the likely outcome of what you recieve would be a building block only happens when the other team makes a mistake. The best outcome is usually a decent relief pitcher 

[tony&rodney]

Correa and Lopez are not only different people playing different positions but their contracts are also far different affecting their different value. Add that the Twins do not have anyone to play even passable shortstop and all conversations stop there with Carlos. Pablo should be held tight unless another team wants to get stupid with an offer. Yes, that happens. Mostly, these threads are throwing out ideas which is always ok.

[FargoFanMan]

On 12/20/2024 at 10:32 AM, BiggestRoccoFan said:

Just look at the trades this FO has botched over the last few years and tell me I am wrong.

Like the trade that they got the same guy this article is about? Or trading a 40 YO Nelson Cruz and turning him into a number 2 starter. Or trading a no namer for Odorizzi, and then getting that no namer back from them while Odorizzi had the best season of his career. Or trading for an aging Sergio Romo and getting the last good drops out of him. 2022 had 2 bad trades but it seems to me they are league average if not better. 

[tony&rodney]

3 minutes ago, FargoFanMan said:

Like the trade that they got the same guy this article is about? Or trading a 40 YO Nelson Cruz and turning him into a number 2 starter. Or trading a no namer for Odorizzi, and then getting that no namer back from them while Odorizzi had the best season of his career. Or trading for an aging Sergio Romo and getting the last good drops out of him. 2022 had 2 bad trades but it seems to me they are league average if not better. 

It might be time to retire any idea that all trades made by any front office of the Twins are bad. Falvey & Sons have made a number of really good deals. Trades of good players always contain an element of gambling, especially when one considers injuries; the unknown can be tricky.