Twins Listening On Trade Inquiries About Pablo Lopez

[David Maro]

If the Polhad's are interested in selling the team at this time,why trade a fan favorite. You are weaking the value and the rotation. You would be much smarter to cut payroll trading Paddock and Vasquez. With Paddock who is now a BP arm and Vasquez a over 30 year old catcher who plays 80 games. To sell for the most you have to put a competitive team together. Does anyone really believe the Polhad's are looking to sell for a rock bottom price.

[tony&rodney]

8 minutes ago, David Maro said:

Does anyone really believe the Polhad's are looking to sell for a rock bottom price.

It is pretty complex. We don't even know how much concern is present, much less attention to specific details. The sale process is hired out likely.

[Morland]

So, we finally get an ace for the first time since Johan and now we're ready to trade him. There's nothing any team would actually give us that would be worth trading Lopez.

[notoriousgod71]

1 hour ago, Morland said:

So, we finally get an ace for the first time since Johan and now we're ready to trade him. There's nothing any team would actually give us that would be worth trading Lopez.

What about a poor man's Gomez and whatever constitutes a poor man's humber, mulvey, and Guerra.

[stringer bell]

On 12/20/2024 at 5:00 PM, Twodogs said:

Yes I agree that their best shot at trading away someone would be to trade away a position player before their arguably best starter.  I mean the Twins have shown a great ability to develop position players over the years.  They have largely struggled to develop pitching.  Ryan and Lopez came in trades, hey they developed Ober but SWR came in a trade also.  So they should probably ride Lopez and trade a position player.  Anyway, we absolutely have no influence, so fingers crossed 🤞 I guess?

The disparity of the 40-man roster (22 pitchers-16 position players) tells me that it should be easier to move a pitcher and López doesn't have a no-trade clause that I'm aware of. I think Pablo López is just the kind of pitcher to build a staff around and I would hate to lose him, but any move short of trading Correa isn't enough to net one decent player in free agency. 

The Twins are really lacking in depth for position players. They need more quality and quantity among position players than they have right now. 

[JD-TWINS]

On 12/21/2024 at 11:37 AM, mnfireman said:

By your logic he should have taken the QO - $21.1 MM is more than $20 MM/ year. Players want long term security, even if it means a lower AAV. We don't know what he and his agent were asking for and I never said he would sign for 5/$70 mm, which is not 40% less than he signed for, 5/$60MM would be, I said if he had an offer over 3 years he probably would have taken it. 

Walker could very well be the exception, but most MLB position players stats start to drop off pretty quick after age 36-37, whether it be due to eroding skills or injury. 

 

Obviously, age is a probable detriment in any athlete’s earnings leverage.

The QO is for one year. Nothing about my logic suggests a one year deal is something Walker should have considered.

He’s getting paid $20M/year for 3 years. IMO, there’s no logic in adding 2 years for $10-$15M more over the 5 years. The 5 year deal reduces his income per year to between $12M-$15M/year …….contracts will be higher paid across the board by 2028 season…..his taking the $60M over 3 years is his best option.

[Twodogs]

On 12/21/2024 at 9:44 PM, stringer bell said:

The disparity of the 40-man roster (22 pitchers-16 position players) tells me that it should be easier to move a pitcher and López doesn't have a no-trade clause that I'm aware of. I think Pablo López is just the kind of pitcher to build a staff around and I would hate to lose him, but any move short of trading Correa isn't enough to net one decent player in free agency. 

The Twins are really lacking in depth for position players. They need more quality and quantity among position players than they have right now. 

Seems to me that all of their young guys are up and coming position players.  Yes you are correct that none of them have really proven themselves as of yet so the quality is definitely questionable but I'm pretty sure that many of them with a couple of years of experience at the MLB level will become pretty good ball players

Walker, Lewis, Lee, Julien, Miranda, Rodriguez, Keashal, Martin, Larnach, Wallner, Jeffers, Buxton, are some of the guys that come to mind who the Twins have developed or are developing.  None of them other than really Buxton maybe even Jeffers would be considered a valuable piece for trading and such, but most of those guys have proven that for at least short periods of time can play baseball at a high enough level that maybe they'll one day be starting quality players. 

 

Pitching wise they have Festa and Zebby coming up along with Ober who they've developed and you could include SWR since he's young even though they got him in a trade, the Twins probably get most of the credit for developing him.  So they have guys, but not the big name guys that an organization would like to have.  

 

Correa, Castro, Vazquez, Paddock, Ryan, Lopez to me would be examples of guys the Twins have that they really didn't develop.  So I think they have some guys, but not really guys that they can get big trade pieces for, at least not yet.  So they have some work to do in order to have a lot of depth to be able to trade pieces away.   Hopefully they don't trade Lopez away.  They might be stuck with mostly what they have, have to fire sale Paddock and maybe Vasquez in order to keep Lopez??  But I'd rather have Lopez than those two.

[mark sills]

On 12/21/2024 at 12:05 PM, arby58 said:

Nearly impossible to trade Correa because of his no-trade contract. His agent says he likes it here.  Because of that leverage, I doubt they could get full value for him, as the other team would likely have to 'sweeten the pot' contract-wise to get Correa to agree to lift the no-trade clause.

I bet he would consider a trade. Just because he says he likes it hear docent mean he wouldn't go somewhere else.

 

[arby58]

8 hours ago, mark sills said:

I bet he would consider a trade. Just because he says he likes it hear docent mean he wouldn't go somewhere else.

 

 It's not whether he would consider a trade - as I said elsewhere in the post, it's whether they can, as a result, get full value. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

9 hours ago, arby58 said:

 It's not whether he would consider a trade - as I said elsewhere in the post, it's whether they can, as a result, get full value. 

I'll add to it, why would Correa accept a trade where he ISN'T getting an extension on his contract?

And with that, why would a team be giving him an extension?

It's not happening.

[tony&rodney]

Beyond the no trade contract, teams are wary of injuries and Correa has high value to the Twins. If he plays 150 games in 2025 and seems to have moved past injuries there will be an entire raft of rumors next offseason. Right now there is not going to be much interest and Carlos remains the Twins only shortstop.

[jctwins]

3 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I'll add to it, why would Correa accept a trade where he ISN'T getting an extension on his contract?

And with that, why would a team be giving him an extension?

It's not happening.

I'm guessing he'd accept a trade for the same money to go play for the Dodgers or the Yankees. Well not the Dodgers, but you get the point.

[Cory Engelhardt]

Just now, jctwins said:

I'm guessing he'd accept a trade for the same money to go play for the Dodgers or the Yankees. Well not the Dodgers, but you get the point.

Why? Just curious. 

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Why? Just curious. 

Because he can win there. He can get more money off the field in those markets. 

NTCs aren't all about getting extensions or more money, they're just about control. There may be nothing the Twins or any team could do to get him to waive his NTC. He may be willing to do anything to get out of here. Or anything in between. But there's plenty of guys who waive their NTCs and don't get extensions or extra money. Arenado may waive his and he isn't going to get any extra money. 

If the Twins decide to blow it up at the deadline or after this season and trade everyone they can Correa may be very happy to waive his NTC to get out of here whether he gets extra money or not because he doesn't feel like spending the rest of his career on a 65 win team. He may not waive it to go to the White Sox, but if he has the chance to go to a contender he may be very happy to waive it. It all depends on the player, their family, and what they care about. Maybe Mr Dior really does only care about getting extra money, but it's also quite possible he'd be happy to go to a contender without any changes being made to his contract.

[Cory Engelhardt]

7 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Because he can win there. He can get more money off the field in those markets. 

NTCs aren't all about getting extensions or more money, they're just about control. There may be nothing the Twins or any team could do to get him to waive his NTC. He may be willing to do anything to get out of here. Or anything in between. But there's plenty of guys who waive their NTCs and don't get extensions or extra money. Arenado may waive his and he isn't going to get any extra money. 

If the Twins decide to blow it up at the deadline or after this season and trade everyone they can Correa may be very happy to waive his NTC to get out of here whether he gets extra money or not because he doesn't feel like spending the rest of his career on a 65 win team. He may not waive it to go to the White Sox, but if he has the chance to go to a contender he may be very happy to waive it. It all depends on the player, their family, and what they care about. Maybe Mr Dior really does only care about getting extra money, but it's also quite possible he'd be happy to go to a contender without any changes being made to his contract.

You had me until you said that he doesn't want to spend his career on a 65 win team.

For everything that went right, and wrong, last year; the Twins aren't a 65 win team.

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

You had me until you said that he doesn't want to spend his career on a 65 win team.

For everything that went right, and wrong, last year; the Twins aren't a 65 win team.

That came after the hypothetical "if they decide to blow it up." I didn't call the Twins a 65 win team.

[cmoss84]

6 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I'll add to it, why would Correa accept a trade where he ISN'T getting an extension on his contract?

And with that, why would a team be giving him an extension?

It's not happening.

Not sure I understand. He has plenty of years/$ left on his current contract. If he likes a situation, why wouldn't it happen without an extension? Just for an example I've used before...Arenado for Correa. If Correa is willing to play some 3B, which would be less wear and tear, he might be okay with it. A lot of players have high praise for that organization. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

8 minutes ago, cmoss84 said:

Not sure I understand. He has plenty of years/$ left on his current contract. If he likes a situation, why wouldn't it happen without an extension? Just for an example I've used before...Arenado for Correa. If Correa is willing to play some 3B, which would be less wear and tear, he might be okay with it. A lot of players have high praise for that organization. 

Yeah, but then you have to get into why in the world the Twins would sell Correa for pennies on the dollar?

 

[jctwins]

35 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Yeah, but then you have to get into why in the world the Twins would sell Correa for pennies on the dollar?

 

Because an org would hypothetically send multiple high value prospects for a guy that is big show ready for half a season when they are one piece away. This isn't that difficult.

[Cory Engelhardt]

5 minutes ago, jctwins said:

Because an org would hypothetically send multiple high value prospects for a guy that is big show ready for half a season when they are one piece away. This isn't that difficult.

You said Arenado for Correa. I must have read that wrong. 

 

[cmoss84]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Yeah, but then you have to get into why in the world the Twins would sell Correa for pennies on the dollar?

 

I like Arenado. Would rather have him as a player/contract vs Carlos. Not pennies on the dollar to me. But I'm sure you could argue this either way. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

17 minutes ago, cmoss84 said:

I like Arenado. Would rather have him as a player/contract vs Carlos. Not pennies on the dollar to me. But I'm sure you could argue this either way. 

As far as age/yearly salary/position/talent level go, Correa for Arenado would be pennies on the dollar

[T.O.]

4 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Because he can win there. He can get more money off the field in those markets. 

If the Twins decide to blow it up at the deadline or after this season and trade everyone they can Correa may be very happy to waive his NTC to get out of here whether he gets extra money or not because he doesn't feel like spending the rest of his career on a 65 win team.

I've been saying this. It's at least a possibility.

[tony&rodney]

Carlos Correa  wants to play another year in Minnesota. 

So back to Pablo Lopez ..... The Twins are almost certainly not trading Lopez unless they receive a haul in return. If it is Baltimore, the Twins demand either one of Basallo or Mayo plus Mountcastle. The Orioles then say no. No worries. There are still opportunities if Falvey wants some change.

[cmoss84]

18 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

As far as age/yearly salary/position/talent level go, Correa for Arenado would be pennies on the dollar

Again, I think you could make an argument for either player. Pennies on the dollar is a bit of an exaggeration. Here is my argument for Arenado:

Arenado is cheaper ($21, $16, and $15 compared to $37, $32, $32 and $31) and more durable (missed 42 games over last three years compared to Carlos missing 129 games). In his last three years, Arenado has averaged .277/24 HR/89 RBI compared to .277/18 HR/61 RBI. 

Yes, I know CC plays SS, but he could easily play 3B for his new team and we could easily sign Jose Iglesias for a year or two, along with other FA with the savings. 

What is your argument that Arenado would be "pennies on the dollar?"

[Cory Engelhardt]

16 minutes ago, cmoss84 said:

Again, I think you could make an argument for either player. Pennies on the dollar is a bit of an exaggeration. Here is my argument for Arenado:

Arenado is cheaper ($21, $16, and $15 compared to $37, $32, $32 and $31) and more durable (missed 42 games over last three years compared to Carlos missing 129 games). In his last three years, Arenado has averaged .277/24 HR/89 RBI compared to .277/18 HR/61 RBI. 

Yes, I know CC plays SS, but he could easily play 3B for his new team and we could easily sign Jose Iglesias for a year or two, along with other FA with the savings. 

What is your argument that Arenado would be "pennies on the dollar?"

Arenado will be 34 in April (Correa will be 31 at the end of September 2025) and statistically he really started to fall off last year in a few categories compared to his peak. 

He played about double the games that Correa did last year (152 to 86, which is good) but in those games he was worth only 3.1 fangraphs war, while Correa was worth 4.3 in only his 86 games. 

Arenado's batting line of 272/325/394 shows a pretty significant dropoff in power production too, and his wRC+ was only 2% above league average. According to steamer, he is projected to be a 3 win player.

Correa's batting line of 310/388/517 is really pretty awesome, and is 55% above league average in terms of wRC+ (or 53% better than Arenado was.) He also projects to be a 3.7 war player this year according to steamer.

And then really after that, you have the position change. Arenado is still a good defensive 3b, but not an amazing one. Correa is still a great defensive ss. 

The downgrade of Correa with Lee or Lewis at 3b to Arenado and Iglesias on the left side is noticeable at worst.

The money being less would be ok if you could fill the gaps. But really, truly, the dropoff here would be a world class SS to a dumpster diving SS. And I don't want to downgrade our SS position that much.

As far as value, Correa has positive value, and would bring back a different return if traded. I'm just not certain I want to trade him at all, especially for a older vet who isn't as good at a position that is then harder to fill. 

Good thing all of this is on the Pablo Lopez thread, right? :)

[cmoss84]

7 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Arenado will be 34 in April (Correa will be 31 at the end of September 2025) and statistically he really started to fall off last year in a few categories compared to his peak. 

He played about double the games that Correa did last year (152 to 86, which is good) but in those games he was worth only 3.1 fangraphs war, while Correa was worth 4.3 in only his 86 games. 

Arenado's batting line of 272/325/394 shows a pretty significant dropoff in power production too, and his wRC+ was only 2% above league average. According to steamer, he is projected to be a 3 win player.

Correa's batting line of 310/388/517 is really pretty awesome, and is 55% above league average in terms of wRC+ (or 53% better than Arenado was.) He also projects to be a 3.7 war player this year according to steamer.

And then really after that, you have the position change. Arenado is still a good defensive 3b, but not an amazing one. Correa is still a great defensive ss. 

The downgrade of Correa with Lee or Lewis at 3b to Arenado and Iglesias on the left side is noticeable at worst.

The money being less would be ok if you could fill the gaps. But really, truly, the dropoff here would be a world class SS to a dumpster diving SS. 

Disagree, but all good! (your "dumpster diving SS" put up almost same WAR as CC last year)

Also, the savings would potentially allow us to keep Pablo, if they are still trying to cut payroll. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

9 minutes ago, cmoss84 said:

Disagree, but all good! (your "dumpster diving SS" put up almost same WAR as CC last year)

Also, the savings would potentially allow us to keep Pablo, if they are still trying to cut payroll. 

They don't have to trade Pablo. 

[RpR]

3 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

They don't have to trade Pablo. 

It would be foolish to do so.

[Cory Engelhardt]

39 minutes ago, RpR said:

It would be foolish to do so.

👍 Agreed