Is Harrison Bader This Year’s Byron Buxton Insurance?

[Cody Christie]

The Twins have acquired veteran center field options to serve in a backup role over the last two seasons. How has that plan served the team, and is another veteran on the team’s free-agent wish list?

Image courtesy of © Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

Byron Buxton’s immense talent has always been paired with an equally imposing injury history. While he has shown flashes of brilliance, playing over 100 games in 2024 and evolving into a power-hitting force, the Twins have had to prioritize a reliable backup plan for center field in recent seasons. In 2023, that role was filled by Michael A. Taylor, who provided Gold Glove-caliber defense and some unexpected pop. In 2024, Manuel Margot was brought in to serve in a similar role but failed to meet expectations.

As the Twins prepare for 2025, Buxton remains a critical piece of the lineup, but his track record suggests the team must again find a high-quality insurance policy in center field. Enter Harrison Bader, a free agent who could prove to be an upgrade over Margot.

What Harrison Bader Brings to the Table
At his best, Bader is one of the premier defensive center fielders in baseball. The 30-year-old has long been lauded for his range, quick first step, and ability to make highlight-reel plays look routine. Statcast metrics consistently rank him among the top outfielders in Outs Above Average (OAA). Last season, he posted an OIAA in the 92nd percentile of the league. His glove could immediately provide value to the Twins' pitching staff, especially in Target Field's spacious outfield and with the pitchers' collective lean toward fly balls.

Bader’s offensive contributions are more of a mixed bag. In 2024, he posted a .236/.284/.373 slash line, with 12 home runs, 19 doubles, and 17 stolen bases across 143 games. While those numbers are not overwhelming, his ability to contribute some power and speed makes him a valuable bottom-of-the-order presence. He was clearly in the lineup for his ability to impact the game defensively, and the Mets were fine with his limited offensive value.

How Does Bader Compare to Margot?
Margot was brought in to serve as Buxton’s backup in 2024, but the team quickly realized that he wasn’t going to be a regular option in center. Margot struggled offensively, slashing .238/.289/.337 with a 76 OPS+ in 129 games. He posted a negative rWAR total for the first time in his career and set the all-time record for hitless at-bats as a pinch-hitter, ending the season with an 0-for-30 record in those situations. 

Bader’s defensive upside alone makes him a compelling upgrade over Margot. Offensively, Bader’s numbers in 2024 were superior to Margot’s, and his ability to swipe bases adds an element of aggressiveness to the lineup that the Twins sorely missed last season. Margot was also atrocious in the outfield with -5 OAA, so Bader could provide a significant upgrade. If Bader can remain healthy (a concern that mirrors Buxton’s), he offers a higher ceiling than Margot, both at the plate and in the field.

Why the Twins Need a Strong Backup
Buxton’s role with the Twins is as unique as it is precarious. Despite his relatively good health in 2024, Buxton’s true value lies in his ability to patrol center field. When healthy, few players can impact the game as he does, but the Twins cannot afford to leave their roster exposed if injuries strike again. The Twins are hopeful that a healthy offseason will help Buxton be better prepared for the rigors of a 162-game season.

Having a player like Bader allows the Twins to manage Buxton’s workload without sacrificing defensive excellence in center field. Moreover, Bader’s skillset aligns perfectly with Minnesota’s pitching and run-prevention focus. Target Field’s outfield demands elite defenders, and Bader can provide that while giving the Twins flexibility to move Buxton to designated hitter when needed. He can also cover more ground in center when the Twins use corner outfielders with less range like Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner. 

Bader represents an ideal insurance policy for Buxton in 2025. His elite defense makes him a clear upgrade over Margot. While the Twins will likely explore other options in free agency or trade, Bader stands out as a player who can address their needs without breaking the bank. However, he was paid $10.5 million last season, and the Twins currently have little to no payroll for free agents. Presumably, his relatively tough season will bring down his price, but will it be by enough?

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With Buxton, the Twins know they are playing a high-risk, high-reward game. Adding Bader could help tilt the odds in their favor while adding an elite defender. Is Bader a good fit for the Twins roster? Are there any internal options to help in center field? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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[tony&rodney]

Will Bader sign for less than $4 million? If not, he is not really an option .... unless Falvey gets the go ahead to spend more money ($140M). As it is Keirsey Jr. can play centerfield. An even better option is to allow the new left fielder, Emmanuel Rodriguez, to slide over to centerfield when Buck needs a day off. Emmanuel does not discriminate when it comes to hitting LH pitching either.

[DJL44]

27 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

As it is Keirsey Jr. can play centerfield.

Unlikely he does it as well as Bader.

[LambchoP]

I sure hope not. He's basically Austin Martin with better defense. This team needs to find a way to score runs. Keirsey and Martin should be able to handle the backup OF jobs until Rodriguez is ready. I'd rather they focus on getting a first baseman who can hit. Walker would be great. Diaz would be good. Goldschmidt or Santana would be ok. I like Miranda but don't think he's our long term answer at first.

[jorgenswest]

I would go with Keirsey and Martin. Martin’s defense will improve with experience in the outfield. He has the athleticism and experience will lead to better reads particularly with balls in front of him. They are less expensive and can be optioned so the insurance isn’t locked in the bench all year.

[DJL44]

16 minutes ago, LambchoP said:

He's basically Austin Martin with better defense.

Like, a LOT, LOT, LOT better defense. Bader is a 95th percentile outfielder and Martin is a 5th percentile outfielder.

It's like saying "Byron Buxton is basically Jorge Soler with better defense."

[stringer bell]

Hard to imagine that Bader will fit in the Twins' budget. He's quite an injury risk as well.

BTW, Happy Birthday Buck! He's 31 today.

[DJL44]

Bader is one of the few CF who are good enough that it would probably make sense to move Buxton to a corner when they're both in the game at the same time.

[nicksaviking]

46 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Unlikely he does it as well as Bader.

But when Kiersey puts up a .620 OPS he can be optioned. The Twins will have to roster Bader all season.

Everybody seems to want these glove only players in the offseason, then when they continually fail to come through when the season starts everyone wants them gone. But they just won't go away.

[DJL44]

2 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

But when Kiersey puts up a .620 OPS he can be optioned. The Twins will have to roster Bader all season.

Was it a problem that they had to roster Michael A Taylor for the whole season in 2023?

[nicksaviking]

2 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Was it a problem that they had to roster Michael A Taylor for the whole season in 2023?

Yeah, it was an issue. The board seemed to see the HR but missed the .278 OBP and 35% K rate. He was an offensive black hole.

But everyone did notice the problems with the Margot, Vazquez and Simmons deals.

[laloesch]

41 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Like, a LOT, LOT, LOT better defense. Bader is a 95th percentile outfielder and Martin is a 5th percentile outfielder.

It's like saying "Byron Buxton is basically Jorge Soler with better defense."

i agree.  Martin's outfield defensive skills are absolutely atrocious.

[DJL44]

6 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Yeah, it was an issue. The board seemed to see the HR but missed the .278 OBP and 35% K rate. He was an offensive black hole.

Taylor kept the Twins from using Andrew Stevenson as their starting CF in 2023.

[nicksaviking]

24 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Taylor kept the Twins from using Andrew Stevenson as their starting CF in 2023.

No it kept them from trying Kiersey a year earlier.

But it hardly matters. The Twins defensive issues pale in comparison to their offensive issues. They can't afford to give another roster spot and 300-400 PAs to a guy they know can't hit. It would be better to continue giving that roster spot and those at bats to guys that the jury is still out on. They can try multiple guys if they don't lock up this spot. This offense needs to improve, a move like this hurts that effort.

I don't want any free agents in this price range, but if they absolutely feel like they must, re-signing a guy like Donovan Solano is a better option.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, jorgenswest said:

I would go with Keirsey and Martin. Martin’s defense will improve with experience in the outfield. He has the athleticism and experience will lead to better reads particularly with balls in front of him. They are less expensive and can be optioned so the insurance isn’t locked in the bench all year.

Martin has nearly 1500 outfield innings between his college and pro career. I'd like to think he'll see improvement as he gets more innings, but I don't think we should act like he just stepped foot out there for the first time this year. He's been taking fly balls for a long time. There's a very real chance he simply isn't a very good outfield defender.

[bean5302]

Personally, I'm sick and tired of 1 year re-tread rentals. The Twins need a guy who can be an every day center fielder for the foreseeable future. The team should trade for that player.

[DJL44]

9 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

They can't afford to give another roster spot and 300-400 PAs to a guy they know can't hit.

I agree. That's why they can't afford to give scholarships to Martin, Keirsey and Helman. They should already be passing over those guys in favor of Luke Keaschall and Emmanuel Rodriguez if they're looking for upside.

[nicksaviking]

1 minute ago, DJL44 said:

I agree. That's why they can't afford to give scholarships to Martin, Keirsey and Helman. They should already be passing over those guys in favor of Luke Keaschall and Emmanuel Rodriguez if they're looking for upside.

I'm all for that, play the real talent and if you're really lucky they click right away, but at least let them take their lumps now with a higher chance of them clicking next year.

Still, while I don't have much hope that Martin, Keirsey or Helman will amount to much with the bat, I have zero hope that Bader will. And that's three options you could try instead of one you can't get rid of.

[tony&rodney]

So, I'm not that all into WAR, but one needs to go back to 2021 since Bader was worth a crap. In sum, by the end of each year Bader is back on the market and another team believes he will suddenly become Mr. 2021 again.

Just say no.

[ewen21]

21 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Personally, I'm sick and tired of 1 year re-tread rentals. The Twins need a guy who can be an every day center fielder for the foreseeable future. The team should trade for that player.

The notion we have had to think about a “contingency plan” for this player since he was in his 20s tells you all you need to know.  He’s 31 today and this isn’t going to magically get better.  The mere fact the Twins have to think this way dilutes his value immensely.  

 

About a month ago there was an article about Buxton somehow becoming Torii Hunter.  How can a Twins fan with any merit make such a comparison?  It’s actually insulting.

 

The Twins lowered bar so much for Buxton that is had a cumulative NEGATIVE affect on the team.  

 

 

[olerud]

Boy I sure wish they'd give Kiersey a shot instead of getting these retreads let's go with our younger guy! No let's go get some no hit all field vet. Just dumb!

[DJL44]

26 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Still, while I don't have much hope that Martin, Keirsey or Helman will amount to much with the bat, I have zero hope that Bader will. And that's three options you could try instead of one you can't get rid of.

Hope that they will amount to much with the bat: nobody

Hope that they will amount to much with the glove: Keirsey

High confidence they will be a great glove, no bat: Bader

[DJL44]

4 minutes ago, olerud said:

Boy I sure wish they'd give Kiersey a shot instead of getting these retreats let's go with our younger guy! No let's go get some no hit all field vet. Just dumb!

Exciting, young talent Keirsey was born May 13, 1997. He will be 28 next season.

Over the hill, decrepit, aging veteran Bader was born June 3, 1994.

Keirsey is younger, but not enough to matter. Both players should be considered finished products.

[jorgenswest]

56 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Martin has nearly 1500 outfield innings between his college and pro career. I'd like to think he'll see improvement as he gets more innings, but I don't think we should act like he just stepped foot out there for the first time this year. He's been taking fly balls for a long time. There's a very real chance he simply isn't a very good outfield defender.

I do think it matters that last year was the first where he was primarily an outfielder with 80 starts across AAA and the majors. I would guess it was the first year the bulk of his time in preparation and training was in the outfield. I think that makes a difference. I would not be signing a decline phase short side platoon veteran with Martin, Keirsey and Helman in the organization with options.

[bean5302]

40 minutes ago, ewen21 said:

The notion we have had to think about a “contingency plan” for this player since he was in his 20s tells you all you need to know.  He’s 31 today and this isn’t going to magically get better.  The mere fact the Twins have to think this way dilutes his value immensely.  

About a month ago there was an article about Buxton somehow becoming Torii Hunter.  How can a Twins fan with any merit make such a comparison?  It’s actually insulting.

The Twins lowered bar so much for Buxton that is had a cumulative NEGATIVE affect on the team.  

I think that's a pretty extreme take. I don't think Buxton is a negative, but I certainly wouldn't have given him that 7 year deal because I don't think any team in baseball would have given Buxton more than 3 years in free agency.  Hunter was not as good as Buxton when they were both healthy and on the field. It's just Buxton is a half a year player.

[DJL44]

45 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

I would not be signing a decline phase short side platoon veteran with Martin, Keirsey and Helman in the organization with options.

I would sign just about anyone I could find to avoid relying on Martin, Keirsey and Helman.

[tony&rodney]

4 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I would sign just about anyone I could find to avoid relying on Martin, Keirsey and Helman.

Minor league invites to all who are interested: Bader, Laureano, etc. Sure, $1M sounds fair.

[RpR]

2 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

But when Kiersey puts up a .620 OPS he can be optioned. The Twins will have to roster Bader all season.

Everybody seems to want these glove only players in the offseason, then when they continually fail to come through when the season starts everyone wants them gone. But they just won't go away.

Neither do the lousy rookies or quasi-rookies.

[RpR]

1 hour ago, olerud said:

Boy I sure wish they'd give Kiersey a shot instead of getting these retreads let's go with our younger guy! No let's go get some no hit all field vet. Just dumb!

Spring training will tell which old or newbie Twins May be a positive element.

So far, AAA newbies have been worse than retreads.

[olerud]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Hope that they will amount to much with the bat: nobody

Hope that they will amount to much with the glove: Keirsey

High confidence they will be a great glove, no bat: Bader

Very well said