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Posted

Bobby Nightengale of the Minnesota Star-Tribune wrote that Derek Falvey is open to bringing back Carlos Santana in 2025.

Santana was paid $5.25 million in 2024 and is entering his age-39 season. He posted a 109 OPS+ in 2024, his best offensive season since 2019.

The Twins are already over their 2025 budget by approximately $10 million, give or take a few million. Santana will also likely look for a raise over his 2024 salary and could fetch a contract more in the $7 million range.

If the Twins are interested in this reunion, they must subtract to add.


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Posted

Ioved Santana's defense and it sounds like he was beloved in the clubhouse. But can we really expect a season similar to 2024 from him? 

I'd love to trade prospects to Tampa for Yandy Diaz. He's $10M next season with a club option in 2026 for $12M i believe. But that only happens if they clear enough $ to afford him. That probably means Vazquez is gone. But then who is the 2nd catcher? 

I know some people won't like it, but I'm kinda looking at George Bell as a younger and possibly better switch hitting bat who can DH and help at 1B with Miranda. Not much defense from him, but he's got experience at least, and doesn't have to be the full time 1B. I like his bat in the 6 or 7 hole instead of hoping Santana can defying Father Time for one more year.

Posted
13 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Nay. Try for some bleeping upside, and quit with the floor pursuit of veterans. What even is the fn plan?

Santana had a career year last season playing healthy because he was playing 1B & yet he's projected with 1.1 WAR/ 546 PA. I'm not a big fan of WAR because it doesn't take enough into account the defensive factor. But at 1B where defense isn't as much of a factor, it's much more reliable of a factor of player's worth. Yet Miranda who was coming off shoulder rehabilitation played a good chunk of his time at 3B. Like Kiriloff who came off shoulder rehabilitation (played a good chunk in the OF)  hurt their backs. While healthy they were phenomenal but after they got hurt they tanked. Twins moved Keaschall to 1B (he never played there before professionally) to save his arm. Secret, keep Miranda healthy by keeping him at 1B. Even with a disappointing overall season, Miranda is projected at 1.5 WAR/ 455 PA. Forget about the social media hype that Santana has any factor in the clubhouse or that we have to have his glove. Do the math, IMO Santana's 1.1 is his ceiling & Miranda's 1.5 is a very low floor.

1B is not a defensive priority but it is to the Twins because they want Julien to look passable at 2B. Secret, keep Julien off 2B so we don't have to get an expensive defense 1st 1Bman.  Better yet trade him because he's a liability both defensively & offensively because the league taken away his HR advantage even if he adjusts.

Santana, no matter what social media & the Twins say, was a mistake for many reasons. Primarily, it was a lost year for Miranda's MLB experience at 1B which he could become better. It saddens me when I hear this nonsense of making this mistake all over again, of paying Santana $7M+ over multiple years when we have a much better player in Miranda for free!(?) Please Falvey this shouldn't even be an option in your head much less speak it out. Please TD bros. before smashing the thumbs down, take everything I said into account even though it goes against what you've been fed.

Posted

As much as I liked santana's defense and some clutch hitting , we just can't bring back the same players from 2024 and expect good results in 2025  ...

Where is our depth of over hyped prospects  that play a great game in the minors but they just can't seem to find a position in the majors and get comfortable   ....

Falvey's creative or wait and see approach  just isn't working  , especially for the twins fans  ...

We need the roster to  hit and play better defense with better health  ...

Spring training is for reminding these players how to play the game the right way  , plain and simple  ....

Posted

I have no interest in bringing Santana back, just as I had no interest in bringing Michael Taylor back last year.  There comes a time when you have to give your young players the chance to succeed or fail.  Like I said with Taylor, take the "win" and move on.  Taylor crashed and burned in 2024 and the probability that Santana will dramatically fall off in 2025 is just too high.

I'd rather see what Miranda can do.  I must admit though, if Yandy Diaz is available for trade, I'd really like to find out what it would take to swing a deal for him.  The guy can hit, of that there is no doubt.  His career BA is .288 and his career OPS is .806.  He's 33 years old, so there is a chance of a fall off.  But his contract only runs 2 more years so all your on the hook for is his age 33 & 34 seasons.

After that, you're probably looking at Royce Lewis or Luke Keaschall.  Those two years would allow Keaschall to get his feet wet and Lewis to determine if he's a 3B or a 2B a 1B or maybe even a LF.  Miranda could still be used as the primary DH and spell Diaz on occasion, or possibly traded.   

Posted

I’d love to see us move pitching  & another tool (Paddack - Duran - Matthews / Miranda) to Red Sox for Tristan Casas at 1B.

That being doubtful, I’d consider something like (Paddack or Matthews - Miranda) to Brewers for Rhys Hoskins, as I see this weekend that they may be considering moving him in earnest. However, I don’t think that sticking with Miranda v. RH pitching & signing Santana to face LH pitching isn’t a better option than Hoskins? Don’t lose any trade capital and you avoid Hoskin’s injury issues. Less $$ outlay, considerably. You get the best of Miranda, as a reverse split guy, & the best of Santana v. lefties. Santana can take the PH opportunities that Margot had in ‘24 v. lefties (big upgrade). Santana can also “close games out defensively” 135 games per year. Also, he’s a gamer and he posts as needed every year….. he takes great care of himself! Great insurance for Miranda at 1B (potential injuries) and allows Miranda to play 3B as needed for depth.

I think it makes sense to sign Carlos for a $6.33M offer and negotiate from there - it allows him some continuity in a familiar Clubhouse on a team with upside.

.……………..

To me, if they NEED to save and not spend anywhere, move Lewis or Keaschall to 1B &/or 2B. Keaschall can hit and can’t throw early on - 1B!! Lewis profiles offensively as a 1B if Twins can get him to move there. CC - with Miranda & Lee at 3B. Castro behind all 3 glove spots. Nice infield for next 4-5 years.

No guarantees with any of these guys nor anyone else in MLB, offensively (see Xander Boegarts) but I have NO delusions that Julien is just going to “work out” at 2B for the Twins…..he cannot be a central thought as a solution/plan!

Posted
22 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

I have no interest in bringing Santana back, just as I had no interest in bringing Michael Taylor back last year.  There comes a time when you have to give your young players the chance to succeed or fail.  Like I said with Taylor, take the "win" and move on.  Taylor crashed and burned in 2024 and the probability that Santana will dramatically fall off in 2025 is just too high.

I'd rather see what Miranda can do.  I must admit though, if Yandy Diaz is available for trade, I'd really like to find out what it would take to swing a deal for him.  The guy can hit, of that there is no doubt.  His career BA is .288 and his career OPS is .806.  He's 33 years old, so there is a chance of a fall off.  But his contract only runs 2 more years so all your on the hook for is his age 33 & 34 seasons.

After that, you're probably looking at Royce Lewis or Luke Keaschall.  Those two years would allow Keaschall to get his feet wet and Lewis to determine if he's a 3B or a 2B a 1B or maybe even a LF.  Miranda could still be used as the primary DH and spell Diaz on occasion, or possibly traded.   

So, my first thought is to trade for a YOUNG, somewhat established guy at 1B. Almost like an impossibility!

Then it’s move Keaschall or Lewis to 1B to share with Miranda as needed. Miranda is a reverse split guy and could take 20% of games v. RH pitching to provide rest as needed……assuming Team would prefer one of the others in the line-up offensively. Whoever doesn’t play 1B (between Royce & Keaschall) they then play 2B.

I like the “maybe even a LF” thought of yours for Lewis!

I can’t discount Santana though as a really good RH bat off the bench as PH (replaces Margot in that role) and he can play defense late nearly all the time in games they are competitive in or are ahead late. Affordable insurance as Miranda is oft injured. He adds more value at $6.75M than Paddack at $7.5M just because of the durability factor and the ability to help in many more games. Move one to sign the other?

Posted

As a manager or even as a player I could evaluate every single ball in play. As a fan this is nearly impossible. The inability to make plays can be easily dismissed but the cumulative affect can be large. As an example, a player with 500 at bats with 125 hits bats .250 which may be respectable. That same player missing 25 plays is now effectively a .200 guy. It's not just the plays not made, it is the number of extra pitches, and even the pitcher attempting to strike out more guys. As such I lean hard towards players who can learn or already play good defense. The Twins were ok at the catcher position last year and I am fine with Buxton in centerfield when he is healthy, even if he is no longer really above average. I also can accept a couple of below average strong bat types. However, last year the Twins were below average in at least five positions and so I seek improvement there. Finally, I completely understand that there are people who feel that defense is not that important and that offense is where it is at.

Carlos Santana had a pretty good year with the glove last year. Because first base is typically a position where a team seeks more offense, it is important for a calculation of the value of that defense versus the reduced bat. Personally, it seems like the Twins benefitted to the max from a resurgent Carlos Santana. Does another bet land heads up? I would not take that gamble. In any event, the financial ceiling may make resigning Santana a moot point. 

First base is a bit of an odd position too. While less athleticism may be required for fielding, footwork, quickness, and throwing as a whole compared to elsewhere in the infield, there are an entire pile of little tricks around the bag to learn. Strange as it might seem some players do not like fielding a ton of throws from fellow infielders, which automatically makes any potential shift to first base more difficult. 

Posted
59 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

No. The risk of decline is too great at age 39. The risk of keeping him in the lineup with marginal or less that marginal results is also too great.

At some point the sand in the hourglass runs out.

Right, we've seen rebound years from aging veterans all through the long history of the game, but rarely do we see TWO rebound seasons in a row.

Posted
53 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

No. The risk of decline is too great at age 39. The risk of keeping him in the lineup with marginal or less that marginal results is also too great.

At some point the sand in the hourglass runs out.

EXACTLY same reasoning 11 months ago - LEAD TEAM in HR & RBI …… Gold Glove! It’s 2.5 months since the end of last season. How steep is the cliff? It’s 2024 & the guy prides himself on taking care of his body (it’s not Harmon Killebrew - nor Kent Hrbek) …….sure, there’s risk…..ask San Diego about Xander Boegarts …. that was a big risk that’s not really working… I get it. It’s easy to say he’s too old - taking the chance in ‘24 turned out pretty well - right?

IMO, his late inning defense - insurance to be available daily as a  “just in case” - RH pinch hitting - RH platoon for 25% of starts - all these added are worth $6.75M to me.

Posted
12 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I posted an article in other baseball about why this is a terrible strategy if you actually want to win. You win by chasing upside, not by having a roster if mediocre players. 

He LEAD the team in HR & RBI …. won Gold Glove. Am nearly positive you wanted him gone last May - then June - then August - “play the young guys annd see how they do….”, etc. If he is/was mediocre in ‘24 the entire Team sucks!!

Posted
14 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I posted an article in other baseball about why this is a terrible strategy if you actually want to win. You win by chasing upside, not by having a roster if mediocre players. 

I’d like to see Keaschall or Lewis at 1B & the other at 2B………but, if they can’t make that happen, they cannot “hope” Miranda doesn’t get hurt nor Julien is going to hit again & pick-up 1B in the Spring………way more risk with the latter two options.

Posted
15 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

I’d like to see Keaschall or Lewis at 1B & the other at 2B………but, if they can’t make that happen, they cannot “hope” Miranda doesn’t get hurt nor Julien is going to hit again & pick-up 1B in the Spring………way more risk with the latter two options.

What's the risk? Half a less war? Chasing low ceiling, not high floor guys doesn't work. Not in the short or long term.

Posted
20 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

He LEAD the team in HR & RBI …. won Gold Glove. Am nearly positive you wanted him gone last May - then June - then August - “play the young guys annd see how they do….”, etc. If he is/was mediocre in ‘24 the entire Team sucks!!

The entire team didn't suck. But even with a career year for his last five, they didn't make the playoffs.... 

Posted
1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

He LEAD the team in HR & RBI …. won Gold Glove. Am nearly positive you wanted him gone last May - then June - then August - “play the young guys annd see how they do….”, etc. If he is/was mediocre in ‘24 the entire Team sucks!!

I know you weren’t addressing me about wanting him gone, but I’ll answer anyway.  Santana led the team in HRs and RBI because he is what he’s always been—amazingly durable—giving him a maximum number of opportunities. Can he do the same at age 39? Is it “good enough” to allot 600 plate appearances to a guy who was born in 1986?

He’s the epitome of a high floor/low ceiling guy at this point in his career, with the rarity of being so durable at an age where so few have avoided significant injury. 
 

At this point I’d prefer the Twins aim high, as opposed to going back to Santana and trying to milk one more (successful) season out of him. 

Posted

Stop 🛑 

Santana took valuable experience away from Miranda and Julian and any other prospect. Please Twins , stop signing players who have no future value . Sign a left handed pitcher to actually start and trade Jeffries who has the most catching value and get more pitching prospects. Go with Vasquez  and Camargo and quit this one year losing mentality. Life long twin fan and actually hate the way Falvey continues to sign nonsense pitchers and position players every single year . 

Posted
3 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I posted an article in other baseball about why this is a terrible strategy if you actually want to win. You win by chasing upside, not by having a roster if mediocre players. 

Right now outside of Santana, Correa and Buxton and Vazquez, all the Twins have are mediocre players.

Posted
2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

The entire team didn't suck.

With the exception of Santana,  and a few other players with hot streaks, for the most part it did.

Posted
7 hours ago, stringer bell said:

I know you weren’t addressing me about wanting him gone, but I’ll answer anyway.  Santana led the team in HRs and RBI because he is what he’s always been—amazingly durable—giving him a maximum number of opportunities. Can he do the same at age 39? Is it “good enough” to allot 600 plate appearances to a guy who was born in 1986?

He’s the epitome of a high floor/low ceiling guy at this point in his career, with the rarity of being so durable at an age where so few have avoided significant injury. 
 

At this point I’d prefer the Twins aim high, as opposed to going back to Santana and trying to milk one more (successful) season out of him. 

My point is that I think they should aim high as well, but they can’t “wish think” that they are going to trade for a solution. They can’t afford any higher $$ in free agency - no more than a “Santana level”. My view is that he should be in ‘25 what they had planned for a 38 year old in ‘24. Miranda starts v. RH pitching at 1B with good reverse splits (or Keaschall or Lewis plays there…..thus they don’t sign Carlos) & Santana starts v. LH pitching. He plays defense late in nearly every game & starts only the 25% v. lefties. He’s the RH pinch hitter used later in games v. lefties. He’s ideal for this duty & IF somebody that’s supposed to play more than him gets hurt, Team has a plausible option. Not, cross fingers and plug in Eddie Julien at 1B - to me that’s nuts/reckless/not very bright.

Posted
On 12/15/2024 at 5:22 AM, Doctor Gast said:

Santana had a career year last season playing healthy because he was playing 1B & yet he's projected with 1.1 WAR/ 546 PA. I'm not a big fan of WAR because it doesn't take enough into account the defensive factor. But at 1B where defense isn't as much of a factor, it's much more reliable of a factor of player's worth. Yet Miranda who was coming off shoulder rehabilitation played a good chunk of his time at 3B. Like Kiriloff who came off shoulder rehabilitation (played a good chunk in the OF)  hurt their backs. While healthy they were phenomenal but after they got hurt they tanked. Twins moved Keaschall to 1B (he never played there before professionally) to save his arm. Secret, keep Miranda healthy by keeping him at 1B. Even with a disappointing overall season, Miranda is projected at 1.5 WAR/ 455 PA. Forget about the social media hype that Santana has any factor in the clubhouse or that we have to have his glove. Do the math, IMO Santana's 1.1 is his ceiling & Miranda's 1.5 is a very low floor.

1B is not a defensive priority but it is to the Twins because they want Julien to look passable at 2B. Secret, keep Julien off 2B so we don't have to get an expensive defense 1st 1Bman.  Better yet trade him because he's a liability both defensively & offensively because the league taken away his HR advantage even if he adjusts.

Santana, no matter what social media & the Twins say, was a mistake for many reasons. Primarily, it was a lost year for Miranda's MLB experience at 1B which he could become better. It saddens me when I hear this nonsense of making this mistake all over again, of paying Santana $7M+ over multiple years when we have a much better player in Miranda for free!(?) Please Falvey this shouldn't even be an option in your head much less speak it out. Please TD bros. before smashing the thumbs down, take everything I said into account even though it goes against what you've been fed.

You make some good points.  Santana will most likely not repeat his '24 season.  Miranda has a highter ceiling for sure given his age.

Where I differ from your presentation is on the value of defense and veteran leadership.  Defense at 1st base is important...think of all the plays they are involved in.  It takes a lot of practice to learn the different positioning and footwork of 1st base.  It's not a secret Miranda's weakest part of his game is his legs.  I believe he is soon to be DH material.  His bat will continue to be his major strength and a 2.0 War is very possible so keep his bat in the lineup.

Posted
On 12/15/2024 at 8:39 AM, tony&rodney said:

As a manager or even as a player I could evaluate every single ball in play. As a fan this is nearly impossible. The inability to make plays can be easily dismissed but the cumulative affect can be large. As an example, a player with 500 at bats with 125 hits bats .250 which may be respectable. That same player missing 25 plays is now effectively a .200 guy. It's not just the plays not made, it is the number of extra pitches, and even the pitcher attempting to strike out more guys. As such I lean hard towards players who can learn or already play good defense. The Twins were ok at the catcher position last year and I am fine with Buxton in centerfield when he is healthy, even if he is no longer really above average. I also can accept a couple of below average strong bat types. However, last year the Twins were below average in at least five positions and so I seek improvement there. Finally, I completely understand that there are people who feel that defense is not that important and that offense is where it is at.

Carlos Santana had a pretty good year with the glove last year. Because first base is typically a position where a team seeks more offense, it is important for a calculation of the value of that defense versus the reduced bat. Personally, it seems like the Twins benefitted to the max from a resurgent Carlos Santana. Does another bet land heads up? I would not take that gamble. In any event, the financial ceiling may make resigning Santana a moot point. 

First base is a bit of an odd position too. While less athleticism may be required for fielding, footwork, quickness, and throwing as a whole compared to elsewhere in the infield, there are an entire pile of little tricks around the bag to learn. Strange as it might seem some players do not like fielding a ton of throws from fellow infielders, which automatically makes any potential shift to first base more difficult. 

Yes.  Good enough to take the gold glove at 1st base.  I challenge the thinking that defense at 1st base is not critical.  

Posted
8 minutes ago, mrcharlie said:

Yes.  Good enough to take the gold glove at 1st base.  I challenge the thinking that defense at 1st base is not critical.  

Ah, nowhere and at no time have I ever advocated for poor defense or suggested that first base is not critical. I am suggesting the Twins need to evaluate what they are seeking for first base. My own choice would be Christian Walker. Yes, that requires movement of salary and other moves first. Not likely at all though.

Posted
58 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Ah, nowhere and at no time have I ever advocated for poor defense or suggested that first base is not critical. I am suggesting the Twins need to evaluate what they are seeking for first base. My own choice would be Christian Walker. Yes, that requires movement of salary and other moves first. Not likely at all though.

Good enough.  And yes, Walker would be a fine fit.  

Posted
4 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Ah, nowhere and at no time have I ever advocated for poor defense or suggested that first base is not critical. I am suggesting the Twins need to evaluate what they are seeking for first base. My own choice would be Christian Walker. Yes, that requires movement of salary and other moves first. Not likely at all though.

Walker would be great but as much as I do not play with Twins finances, I doubt they could afford him, while so many seers here know Santana will fall apart any supposed gamble is far smaller than guessing Lewis, Miranda or any one with the Twins  now can even be mediocre at First Base.

Posted
7 minutes ago, RpR said:

Walker would be great but as much as I do not play with Twins finances, I doubt they could afford him, while so many seers here know Santana will fall apart any supposed gamble is far smaller than guessing Lewis, Miranda or any one with the Twins  now can even be mediocre at First Base.

Remember that Carlos Santana was moved from catcher to third base because he was a very poor catcher and subsequently moved to first base because he could not manage to play even a slightly below average third base. When he moved to first base he had all sorts of problems there but he kept on hitting and working hard to learn the position, thus eventually becoming a good first baseman. 

As much as I am hoping for improvement in the defense in 2025 at several positions, realistically not every player will be above average on defense for the Twins next year. Players can improve their footwork quite a bit and through repetitions and gaining comfort become better at a position. Don't give up on a guy. Teams did not give up on Carlos Santana.

Any consideration of Walker can only result from a trade of a larger contract. I do not believe that will occur.

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