Twins Daily's Top 20 Minnesota Twins Prospects: #2 Emmanuel Rodriguez

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Who is number 1????

That would be telling.

Be seeing you.

[DJL44]

He's 22 next season. They're going to start him in AAA and wait for an injury. If nothing else, they will want the extra year of team control to age 28.

[gman]

I'm hoping when Emma makes it up, everyone is doing well. We don't have a team wide slump or 5 or 6 injuries among the position players. Let him hide in the lineup close to the bottom and get a couple hundred plate appearances in before someone tries to anoint him a savior.

[stringer bell]

I want to comment about outfield defense first. With Buxton in center, the Twins are fine with Larnach and Wallner in the corners IMHO. Larnach has always been an okay outfielder but without great tools--speed and arm--but if healthy he's average to a little above average. Wallner has improved and with a chance to be full-time in right field, I think he'll be better than okay. He has better than average speed and a plus-plus throwing arm. Wallner has improved markedly on defense in the year plus he's been a major league player. With a guy like Buxton between them, their relative lack of range is diminished. I do think Rodriguez will improve the D when he is promoted, but I would expect some mistakes due to inexperience in his first year.

I brought up platooning and I am hoping for at least the Kepler model, where Max wasn't pinch-hit for but often (almost always in 2024) he didn't start against left handed starters. Part of that was because of Kepler's superior defense compared to his right handed platoon mate, which should be the case for Rodriguez and Jenkins when he arrives. 

As to comparisons with Chourio and Merrill, I don't know if Emma's pedigree is in that range. IMHO, Rodriguez has more deficiencies in his game to handle (if not master) and so does need more seasoning. As I said, if he blows everyone away in the spring, I think the Twins could take him north, but I don't think that is the plan at this time. 

[stringer bell]

45 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

He's 22 next season. They're going to start him in AAA and wait for an injury. If nothing else, they will want the extra year of team control to age 28.

That's a factor as well. Team control is a big deal.

[tony&rodney]

There is a clear divide on Emmanuel Rodriguez among folks on Twins Daily. Some feel he must spend more time in the minors to prove himself. A few of those folks believe the best use of EmRod is in a trade because they do not see him as a difference maker for the Twins.  The other group, which seems smaller, thinks EmRod should be in the lineup on Opening Day for the Twins. Eventually, we shall get our answer.

A couple of points worth considering are that any comparison to Julien rests solely on their high walk rates. Everything else about them is different. The swings, power, demeanor at the plate, speed, throwing arms, and glove work are all very different and one plays infield and the other is an infielder. Let's retire that comparison. Another point that was brought up is that the Twins already have their three outfielders. Buxton holds a spot and Wallner certainly has a leg up for a spot with Larnach also worth plate appearances. The problem is catching those fly balls. Buxton is no longer an above average centerfielder although he is fine out there. Both of Wallner and Larnach are ok, but clearly below average at this time. The pitchers need some help in converting outs into outs and those three together won't cut it in 2025 as a full time plan.

I understand the trade EmRod group because they want some value from a prospect that they do not believe in. I'm firmly in the put Emmanuel in the lineup in the outfield right away. He has proven himself already in the minors and has nothing left to learn. Proving himself again and again is a waste of talent.

[Matthew Lenz]

7 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Do you think Rodriguez’s approach can work or does he need to make adjustments to avoid becoming the next Edouard Julien?

Such a ridiculous statement, Julien put up a 130 OPS+ as a rookie and had a bad second year (not the first nor the last player this has and will happen to) and we have no idea if he turns into the player he was as a rookie, second year or somewhere in between.

Larnach, AK, Gordon, and others have never put up a 130+, would it be a disappointment if EROD put a rookie year like Julien and never seen the bigs again, absolutely, but 99% of minor league players will never do that. 

Can we talk about our hopes and dreams with Erod without denigrating Julien?

Totally understand yours and others point of view. I think saying Julien had a bad season is underselling it quite a bit. I'm not writing him off but his 2024 was a disaster with both the Twins and Saints. So much so that I don't think we can assume it was a sophomore slump and be hopeful for a full rebound in 2025. I will happily eat crow if I'm wrong, but I don't see it.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, stringer bell said:

As to comparisons with Chourio and Merrill, I don't know if Emma's pedigree is in that range. IMHO, Rodriguez has more deficiencies in his game to handle (if not master) and so does need more seasoning. As I said, if he blows everyone away in the spring, I think the Twins could take him north, but I don't thin that is the plan at this time. 

Jackson Merrill OPS'd .782 in basically 50 more AA PAs in 2023 before debuting in the majors without ever playing a game at AAA and playing a position he never played in an official professional game.

Jackson Chourio OPS'd .780 in many more AA PAs and played 6 games in AAA before debuting in the bigs. He had been playing the outfield already, though, so he did have that going for him over Merrill. 

Emmanuel Rodriguez OPS'd 1.100 in AA. His AAA OPS (in a, frankly, useless sample size) that people are worried about was 35ish points below what their AA OPSes were and they either completely skipped AAA or effectively skipped AAA like Emma would be.

Merrill and Chourio weren't finished products. That's the point. They were close and then were given the chance to learn at the major league level while struggling for the first 2 months. They aren't all the same guy. Merrill had never played CF professionally until spring training last year. He debuted as a 20 year old having completely skipped AAA at a position he'd never played in a real professional game after having OPS'd 300+ points worse than Emma at AA. I'm not sure I can buy that Rodriguez has significantly more deficiencies than Jackson Merrill had on opening day 2024.

Chourio was a top-10 prospect, Merrill at top-20, and Rodriguez a top-50. They're not the same, but he's in their league from a pedigree standpoint. Chourio was a top internation free agent who signed for 1.9 mil. Merill was a first round pick (27th overall). Rodriguez was a top international free agent who signed for 2.5 mil. I think his pedigree is pretty close to their range.

I don't think it's the plan either. My concern is what he has to do to blow them away. How realistic are their expectations and what would it take to put him on the opening day roster? And then how quick is the trigger to send him down when he struggles? Does he get 2 months of 600 something OPS to figure it out or is he sent packing after 3 weeks? And my concerns fall down the line to the kid we're going to discuss tomorrow, too.

[stringer bell]

4 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Jackson Merrill OPS'd .782 in basically 50 more AA PAs in 2023 before debuting in the majors without ever playing a game at AAA and playing a position he never played in an official professional game.

Jackson Chourio OPS'd .780 in many more AA PAs and played 6 games in AAA before debuting in the bigs. He had been playing the outfield already, though, so he did have that going for him over Merrill. 

Emmanuel Rodriguez OPS'd 1.100 in AA. His AAA OPS (in a, frankly, useless sample size) that people are worried about was 35ish points below what their AA OPSes were and they either completely skipped AAA or effectively skipped AAA like Emma would be.

Merrill and Chourio weren't finished products. That's the point. They were close and then were given the chance to learn at the major league level while struggling for the first 2 months. They aren't all the same guy. Merrill had never played CF professionally until spring training last year. He debuted as a 20 year old having completely skipped AAA at a position he'd never played in a real professional game after having OPS'd 300+ points worse than Emma at AA. I'm not sure I can buy that Rodriguez has significantly more deficiencies than Jackson Merrill had on opening day 2024.

Chourio was a top-10 prospect, Merrill at top-20, and Rodriguez a top-50. They're not the same, but he's in their league from a pedigree standpoint. Chourio was a top internation free agent who signed for 1.9 mil. Merill was a first round pick (27th overall). Rodriguez was a top international free agent who signed for 2.5 mil. I think his pedigree is pretty close to their range.

I don't think it's the plan either. My concern is what he has to do to blow them away. How realistic are their expectations and what would it take to put him on the opening day roster? And then how quick is the trigger to send him down when he struggles? Does he get 2 months of 600 something OPS to figure it out or is he sent packing after 3 weeks? And my concerns fall down the line to the kid we're going to discuss tomorrow, too.

Agree to disagree. I do think there is a difference between Chourio and Merrill and Rodriguez and I think Rodriguez' problem with making contact, especially with off-speed, is a bigger deficiency than either Merrill or Chourio was facing, enough so that a hundred or two hundred plate appearances at AAA would be beneficial. We shall see.

[tony&rodney]

4 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Agree to disagree.

I think this is where the two sides are regarding Prospect #2.

Personally, I have seen enough of him to take my stand, which may be way off. I did not have the same confidence with any of Lewis, Lee, Miranda, Julien, Wallner, or Larnach to name a few. The future is wide open.

Let us all hope Falvey & Sons does something though.

Is Eeles Prospect #1? jk

[Mike Sixel]

If he's great in AAA, but the Twins are healthy, do you hold him back to start at the beginning of 2026 to maybe win RoY? I think this is a BAD unintended consequence of this rule......

[RpR]

3 hours ago, Matthew Lenz said:

Totally understand yours and others point of view. I think saying Julien had a bad season is underselling it quite a bit. I'm not writing him off but his 2024 was a disaster with both the Twins and Saints. So much so that I don't think we can assume it was a sophomore slump and be hopeful for a full rebound in 2025. I will happily eat crow if I'm wrong, but I don't see it.

Last yezr, Julien, made Cave and Margot look like All-Stars.

If Julien does not stay in AAA , at best, as so many want to espouse here, the Twins do not want to win.

E.R., wait and see; so very many made Lewis a blooming swan, but he has turned into a Coot.

[mikelink45]

Not yet.  I need to see bat discipline.  You can get away with a lot in the minors that will not work in the majors.  He slides to #3 or 4 for me.  

[tony&rodney]

8 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

Not yet.  I need to see bat discipline.  You can get away with a lot in the minors that will not work in the majors. 

I agree with your second point.  Bat discipline? How many plate appearances of Emmanuel Rodriguez have you watched in the last year or two? There isn't anyone in the Twins system who has his discipline. I would agree with those who say that the Twins will not start ER at the MLB level. I totally disagree with that decision though. I guess the best argument was put forth by chpettit19. As was already stated, we shall just agree to disagree.

[DocBauer]

I guess I'm just of the more patient mode of thinking. I'd be more inclined to jump Rodriguez straight to the Twins if he hadn't missed so much time last season. I don't deny his talent or potential. And I don't deny a great eye, defense, speed, and power. He's very exciting. But I don't think a little bit of patience is a bad thing.

Does he K more than you'd like? Yes. Is that necessarily a strong negative to deflate his potential? Absolutely not. Plenty of higher K than you'd like hitters are still able to produce solid AVG to go along with power and production. The best have a good BB rate to offset higher K numbers.

Higher K hitters are sometimes very patient. They work the pitcher/count looking for a pitch, refuse to swing at everything, but sometimes end up in 2 strike counts, which can lead to a BB, a hitter, or a K. More or less, the 3 outcome approach. I think that's largely Rodriguez. Again, that's not a bad thing.

I'm not saying I'm right, but from all I've heard and read, I do wonder if he's TOO patient at times. And that's a small concern I have, along with the ability to adjust and simply make better contact with offspeed stuff. 

Again, I'm not denigrate him, or his potential. He's immensely talented! And I can easily see him struggle somewhat at first, as most rookies do. And I'm not opposed to promoting kids aggressively. And the FO isn't opposed to promoting aggressively either. I just think some time at AAA to work on a few things, play daily, see some better pitchers, get in a rhythm after missing so much time in 2024 would do him some good. I have no doubt his performance, talent, and opportunity will see him with the Twins in 2025. And we may see a lot of him. 

But we're also talking about a 22yo who played a little less than half a season last year. If the Twins run with him opening day, I'll watch intently, hope for the best, and hope he's up to stay for good. I'm just expecting some AAA time to be more prepared for his debut.

[mikelink45]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

I agree with your second point.  Bat discipline? How many plate appearances of Emmanuel Rodriguez have you watched in the last year or two? There isn't anyone in the Twins system who has his discipline. I would agree with those who say that the Twins will not start ER at the MLB level. I totally disagree with that decision though. I guess the best argument was put forth by chpettit19. As was already stated, we shall just agree to disagree.

I am not saying he should not be a prospect - I just move Keaschall up and him down.  I cannot get caught up in the hype.  I have seen that too much.  I also see Morris underrated and put him up there too.  But if Em is number 3 or 4 is that really a big demotion?

[tony&rodney]

36 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

I am not saying he should not be a prospect - I just move Keaschall up and him down.  I cannot get caught up in the hype.  I have seen that too much.  I also see Morris underrated and put him up there too.  But if Em is number 3 or 4 is that really a big demotion?

No issues with anyone's opinions. I just wondered how many times you have seen EmRod play? I'm also quite high on both Keaschall and Morris because I like what I have seen as they have developed in the past two seasons. I have watched Morris pitch about eight or nine times and have seen dozens of Keaschall's plate appearances. I am always curious if people have watched these prospects numerous times in their games, watched video clips, or looked over stats. I would not expect that many people had actually attended numerous games of many prospects because they play in different locales all the time. One can watch the games via milb.com though. 

[nclahammer]

My annual baseball roadtrip group saw Emmanuel Rodriguez play five games when he was with the Kernels, four-in-a-row at one point.  We saw where Emma had some moments at the plate where he got a key hit, followed by taking a called third strike and looking back at the umpire, a scene repeated during the games we attended.    He is touted for his defense in centerfield, but what we saw over that brief set of games tended to be lackadaisical play including an error on what should have been a can of corn.

Rodriguez had some big moments in helping to lead that Cedar Rapids Kernels team to a Midwest League champions, but what we saw in our short sample was that he was just not consistent enough for us.  He didn't pass the eye test for us.  We came away thinking that E-Rod was a bit over-hyped, and felt that the Minnesota Twins should sell high on his value.

[JD-TWINS]

22 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

If they think he's close I'd like to see him on the opening day roster and let him do his learning on the job. Even when he struggles. Assuming those struggles aren't early-2024 Wallner level struggles. If you don't think he'll be completely overwhelmed, give him the Jackson Chourio/Merrill treatment. Let him struggle early. Give him 2 months of hitting at the bottom of the order and dialing in his approach with the hope that things start to click by June. Then by the second half of the season you have your middle of the order star blossoming and come playoff time you may have your "face of the franchise" type piece you're hoping for.

The Twins are more than willing to let their over-the-hill veterans struggle for months on end with the hope that they can reach their ceiling of "mediocre at best" by the time August or September rolls around. I'd like to see them do it with their high ceiling youngsters instead. Emma is a good place to start.

I don't think there's much for him to learn at AAA. The pitchers can challenge him better than the guys at A+ and AA, but not like the major leaguers. For him to truly lock in his approach and balance out the patience and aggression he's going to need he's going to have to do it against major league pitching. Let him start the process now. Recognizing off-speed isn't Julien's problem, hitting it is. Julien's approach is broken because he can't hit off-speed stuff so he doesn't swing at it. If Emma also can't hit off-speed stuff then his approach doesn't matter. If Emma can hit major league breaking stuff his approach will work itself out. His contact rate is what the question is. Not the approach. Can he make enough contact when he swings? If he does the rest will work itself out.

I don’t understand the logic behind a 22 year old not gaining value in spending 2-5 months at AAA. The guy had 200 plus AB’s in ‘24. IMO, he needs to gain experience AND play a couple months straight without getting hurt.

He doesn’t hit off speed stuff well per the post. Just doesn’t seem like a guy who is near ready for the Show.

I really don’t see where he would play the first couple months while he’s practicing his hitting approach in the Bigs? He doesn’t displace any of the current 3 options. He needs AB’s and repetition and guidance before he starts dealing with MLB pitchers every day.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

I don’t understand the logic behind a 22 year old not gaining value in spending 2-5 months at AAA. The guy had 200 plus AB’s in ‘24. IMO, he needs to gain experience AND play a couple months straight without getting hurt.

He doesn’t hit off speed stuff well per the post. Just doesn’t seem like a guy who is near ready for the Show.

I really don’t see where he would play the first couple months while he’s practicing his hitting approach in the Bigs? He doesn’t displace any of the current 3 options. He needs AB’s and repetition and guidance before he starts dealing with MLB pitchers every day.

I didn't say he couldn't gain any value in AAA. But the 20 year olds I mentioned for the other teams could've gained value from 2-5 months in AAA, too. If he gets hurt again in the first 2-5 months this year is the argument next year that the 23 year old in his last option year can still gain value from 2-5 months in AAA so he should start there in 2026 because he only had 200 ABs in '25? I've openly stated he'd struggle in the first couple months. I've said he'd OPS in the .600s. I just think the lessons he needs to learn are best learned against big league pitching.

He would play left field while Larnach DHs and he'd play CF while Buxton DHs and gets his rest days. That's the easy part. He displaces both Larnach and Wallner in the field easily and they don't have a set DH. Emma-Buxton-Wallner-Lewis-Correa-Castro-Whoever at C-Larnach. You can easily get him everyday ABs in the majors. Easily. But I'm not a big Lee believer so I understand that people are going to have different opinions here. Or maybe Castro is traded to save money and then it's Lee at 2B. But Martin, Keirsey, Helman, and Julien aren't taking ABs from Emma.

He'll get AB's and repetition and guidance in the majors. Those are the off-speed pitches he needs to learn to hit. Him taking off-speed stuff in AAA isn't helping him learn to hit off-speed stuff in the majors. I don't think it's crazy to send him to AAA. It's what they're very likely going to do. It's just not what I'd do. And it's not what every team would do. It's what some teams would do. 22 isn't that young. I don't get the logic behind every prospect having to get hundreds of ABs at every level. And neither do plenty of MLB teams because they skip guys over AAA completely or have them only play a handful of games there all the time. Elite players don't need to do it.

If you want Emma or Jenkins or Keaschall or any of these guys to be superstars you better cross your fingers they have enough talent to essentially jump AAA, too. Especially at age 22. They shouldn't force any of these guys to do it just to do it, but we better hope they have the talent to do it. I think Emma has the talent. My question with him is his ability to stay on the field.

[chpettit19]

14 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

If he's great in AAA, but the Twins are healthy, do you hold him back to start at the beginning of 2026 to maybe win RoY? I think this is a BAD unintended consequence of this rule......

The union would file a grievance against that. I don't know how successful it'd be, but the union would throw an absolute fit if he doesn't debut in 2025 while being great in AAA. Especially since it's a level he reached, albeit briefly, the year before.

[stringer bell]

The last two posts combined pretty much guarantee a productive healthy Rodriguez will debut next year. There is room on the present roster for a center field capable left handed hitter, actually I’d say there is need for such a player.

Given his sparse resumé in the upper minors, there is also justification to start him in the minors, maybe even at Wichita. 
 

Given the Twins roster flexibility, an injury or ineffectiveness from any of a whole host of players should give the opportunity to promote the #2 prospect.

 

If healthy, I expect Emmanuel Rodriguez to be very good very soon. I hope it is as soon as I’m playing golf in Minnesota. 

[Eris]

I struggle to understand how someone who has greater than 30% strikeouts at most of his stops in the minors and can’t hit off speed pitches should be a top 30 MLB prospect and the #2 TD prospect. It is almost as if strikeouts don’t matter. 
 

Don’t get take my comments wrong, I hope Emmanuel Rodriguez has Hall of Fame career and leads the Twins to multiple World Series championships. But his current path seems all too familiar (Buxton, Larnach). He will be called up and see curveballs after curveballs from MLB pitchers who can throw these pitches for strikes and will have close to a 40% K rate. Hopefully he and the Twins figure this out before he is called up. 

[DJL44]

18 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

I understand the trade EmRod group because they want some value from a prospect that they do not believe in. I'm firmly in the put Emmanuel in the lineup in the outfield right away. He has proven himself already in the minors and has nothing left to learn. Proving himself again and again is a waste of talent.

I think it will be a lot like Wallner. He'll come up and do well, the league will find a weakness and he'll need to go back down to AAA to make changes. Then he'll come up and do well again. This is typical for most players.

Hopefully Rodriguez can stay healthy and all of that can all happen in 2025. I think he would have debuted in 2024 if he had avoided injury.

[Matthew Lenz]

15 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Not yet.  I need to see bat discipline.  You can get away with a lot in the minors that will not work in the majors.  He slides to #3 or 4 for me.  

My takeaway from reviewing his profile is that his bat is almost too disciplined to a fault.

[stringer bell]

30 minutes ago, Matthew Lenz said:

My takeaway from reviewing his profile is that his bat is almost too disciplined to a fault.

Hence the comparisons (in that specific area) to Julien.

[tony&rodney]

7 hours ago, nclahammer said:

My annual baseball roadtrip group saw Emmanuel Rodriguez play five games when he was with the Kernels, four-in-a-row at one point.  We saw where Emma had some moments at the plate where he got a key hit, followed by taking a called third strike and looking back at the umpire, a scene repeated during the games we attended.    He is touted for his defense in centerfield, but what we saw over that brief set of games tended to be lackadaisical play including an error on what should have been a can of corn.

Rodriguez had some big moments in helping to lead that Cedar Rapids Kernels team to a Midwest League champions, but what we saw in our short sample was that he was just not consistent enough for us.  He didn't pass the eye test for us.  We came away thinking that E-Rod was a bit over-hyped, and felt that the Minnesota Twins should sell high on his value.

I wrote about that a couple of summers back. The attention and focus were all over the place. EmRod played young. FWIW, I saw a major improvement in his play for Wichita. The skills are there. How much can he adjust and show focus on a daily basis. That is the key. I'm not seeing where he learns anything more in the minor leagues and punishing him for how inconsistent he played in Ft. Myers and Cedar Rapids doesn't make any sense at all.

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, stringer bell said:

Hence the comparisons (in that specific area) to Julien.

I think the closest comparison to EmRod amongst current Twins is Matt Wallner. Nothing Julien does is very similar to Rodriguez except for their both having a good idea of the strike zone. As far as just watching hittable pitches, one might throw Jeffers or other names in the hat too.

[mikelink45]

8 hours ago, Matthew Lenz said:

My takeaway from reviewing his profile is that his bat is almost too disciplined to a fault.

Is that really possible?  As he moves up let's hope he is all we wish for.

[TopGunn#22]

I tend to believe that those who can play...can play.  I think chpettit19 made a great comparison with Chourio and Merrill.  They struggled initially but the teams stuck with them.  The kids figured it out.  The Brewers knew Robin Yount was a player.  They let him struggle for his first two years (he was 19 when he debuted)  and then he turned the corner.

The thing about E-Rod is that he's a pretty good outfielder.  And for at least 2-3 years can be expected to supply good defense in CF, which comes in handy if Buxton has to miss any length of time.

If E-Rod earns a roster spot in spring training, let him break camp with the club.