Twins Daily's Top 20 Minnesota Twins Prospects: #20-#16

[Matt Braun]

Welcome to the Twins Daily Top 20 Prospects countdown for the 2024-25 offseason. Today, we'll highlight a quartet of international hitters and an infielder with potential 30-homer pop. 

Image courtesy of William Parmeter (photo of Yasser Mercedes)

After looking at the 10 players who landed just outside our Top 20, we now turn to five who just made it. Here are our Twins prospects ranked 16-20.

20. Ricardo Olivar - C/OF
For a 20th-ranked prospect, Olivar is an awfully fascinating player. Deemed “underrated” by Cody Christie, the 23-year-old Venezuelan mostly splits time between catcher and left field and has occasionally moonlighted as a center fielder and second baseman. Even by today’s super-utility “do-everything” standards, that’s a unique combination. Daulton Varsho couldn’t live that life for long. Dale Murphy quit catching after his age-23 season. Could Olivar be the rare exception? Eric Longenhagen is skeptical, but the potential is tantalizing.

Regardless of where he claims a defensive home, Olivar’s offensive upside buoys his prospect profile. He flashed impressive plate discipline in two shortened seasons at the beginning of his pro career before hammering home a critical point the last two years: he doesn’t chase. Won’t do it. He’s walked over 100 times combined between 2023 and 2024, and maintained a modest strikeout rate to boot. 

Olivar slashed a blistering .287/.393/.473 with Cedar Rapids before earning a late-season promotion to Wichita. He struggled in a small sample but was two years younger than the average player at Double-A; he’ll likely be fine. And today, he clocks in as our 20th-ranked prospect heading into the offseason.

19. Eduardo Beltre - OF
Ranked as the 39th overall international prospect available in 2024 by MLB Pipeline, Beltre broke through as a true 17-year-old in the DSL (he didn’t turn 18 until last month). He cracked 11 homers across 43 games in an outstanding introduction to pro ball. He slugged .618. As a 17-year-old. That kind of production brought back memories of Yasser Mercedes (more on him soon) and Jose Rodriguez in 2022; maybe 2024 will catapult Beltre onto a similar prospect path as Mercedes. 

DSL production is Mickey Mouse, though—you’d have better luck predicting a presidential race based on polls done exclusively on cracked-out squirrels—which is why Beltre remains in the back end of this prospect list. Still, you would be wise to remember his name heading into 2025.

18. Danny De Andrade - INF
The prize of the 2021 international signing period—the Twins handed him a $2.2 million bonus—De Andrade has been solid so far. Not outstanding or bad; simply good enough to rise through the minors at a decent pace. He slashed .244/.354/.396 with the Mighty Mussels in 2023 before suffering an ankle injury early in 2024, limiting him to just 29 games with the Kernels. He hit more or less the same before being sent to the AFL, where he has yet to play any games.

Being an infielder, De Andrade’s value rests on one question: can he play shortstop? He’s an instincts-over-athleticism defender who’s seen time at 2nd and 3rd but remains firmly entrenched at short. Perhaps (though only perhaps) that's a sign that Minnesota remains optimistic about his long-term future there. Or, maybe they figure there’s no harm in letting him play there until it’s abundantly clear he can’t pick it. At any rate, De Andrade has shown consistent production in the low minors, separating him early from your typical international burnout.

17. Tanner Schobel, IF
Schobel’s prospect stock has seen better days. The Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University (alma mater of Joe Saunders and Kerry Carpenter) product bopped 14 homers in 77 games with the Kernels in 2023 before earning a promotion to Wichita. He hit a wall there: he only swatted two homers across 49 games at Double-A, and his slugging dropped nearly 200 points. This season was a small rebound for the 23-year-old, but it still wasn’t pretty; Schobel managed a .211/.301/.338 slash line in 520 plate appearances with the Wind Surge.

Any infielder who can average a near 30-homer pace for any stretch of play, though, will remain in prospect raters' minds. Schobel is mostly a third baseman these days, even as the team gave him some outfield playing time for the first time in his recorded life, but he can man second quite well and will cover shortstop at times. Whether his bat bounces back will determine just how bright of a future he has in the majors; we rank him as the team’s 17th-best prospect.

16. Yasser Mercedes - OF
As mentioned earlier, Mercedes broke out in 2022 by slashing .355/.420/.555 while stealing 30 (!!!) bases in 41 games at the DSL. That’s Rickey Henderson stuff. He then struggled mightily Stateside in 2023 while nursing a shoulder issue.

A $1.7-million man from the 2022 international class, Mercedes bounced back in 2024 to slash .331/.421/.568 with the FCL Twins while showcasing more tools than a Lowe’s. In a system with plenty of boom-or-bust athletes, Mercedes may be just behind Emmanuel Rodriguez in terms of pure athletic talents; he could very well settle in as a prototypical strong-armed right fielder capable of doing things on a baseball field only a select few individuals can accomplish. The soon-to-be 20-year-old is an ultra-exciting player, and we ranked him as the 16th-best prospect in the system.

Final thoughts:
I'm unsure of the last time the Twins had so many notable young international players in their farm system. Maybe it's serendipity, or perhaps the organization has recently improved in identifying Latin talent, but one thing is clear: this is a high-variance group. Just two players, Olivar and Schobel, have reached Double-A. Mercedes has played 10 games above Rookie ball, Beltre has yet to play Stateside, and De Andrade has made all of 117 plate appearances with the Kernels. There's a good chance all of these players will fall off in 2025, and there's a good chance they all improve; we're simply too early in their pro careers to understand them well.

Of this group, Mercedes is easily my favorite. A less disciplined writer may be inclined to intoxicate themselves with hype and compare him to a young Julio Rodríguez. I won't go that far, but something about his madman baserunner ethos excites me; the team has yearned for players in that vein for years. Olivar is a close second, with his potential as a catcher/outfielder hybrid standing utterly unique in the baseball landscape.

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[DJL44]

If Olivar's bat is good enough and his defense at catcher is bad enough to move him to LF they'll move him there. I don't see him as a "hybrid" player as much as they're preparing a backup plan in case he can't hack it behind the plate. Catching is hard enough work that it is unlikely the team will want to play him in the outfield on his off days. They'll pick someone else who doesn't have dead legs from squatting for hours the previous day.

[DJL44]

It's great that they are doing well scouting international players. Too bad they can't find any pitchers. We've seen spots 16-29 on the list and the only pitcher is perpetually injured Matt Canterino. If they want to be competitive going forward 14 of the next 15 slots on the list should be pitchers. I know that won't happen which highlights how shallow this organization is when it comes to pitching.

[jmlease1]

i would not have ranked Schobel this high; he wouldn't crack my top 20. the AA wall hit him hard, but that's not the only issue he has: mah dude hasn't actually hit at any level as a professional outside of that 2023 stretch in high A. Not in a cup of coffee in rookie ball, not in Ft. Myers, and he's now spent more time in AA than anywhere and has not hit there either. The defense isn't good enough for him to hit this poorly. Looking at the big increase in K's this season as a bit of a warning sign that he can't handle higher level pitching. He still draws some walks, but he's getting overwhelmed by pitchers who don't have to fear him. Unless he takes a leap forward next season (which will be age 24 at AA) then he's probably done as a prospect. I'm always rooting for guys to prove me wrong, but he's not a top 30 guy, let alone top 20.

Olivar, on the other hand, is intriguing. Looking forward to seeing how he does in a full stretch at AA: he's hit effectively at his other stops, and if he can stick at catcher (even if he's just a part-time catcher) that could be a big deal. Looking forward to seeing if he can hit AA pitching and keep getting reps behind the plate.

De Andrade feels about right here. i was hoping to see him get some reps in the AFL to make up for the missed time this year, but he's been absent. I expect he'll start back in Cedar Rapids, but he's got the skills to move up to AA with a good start to the year. 

[DJL44]

Pitchers who should be in the top 30:

CJ Culpepper, Charlee Soto, Connor Prielipp, Andrew Morris, Marco Raya, Adrian Bohorquez, Cory Lewis, Travis Adams, Dasan Hill

Ugh, 9 arms in the top 30 is terrible.

[tony&rodney]

22 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Pitchers who should be in the top 30:

CJ Culpepper, Charlee Soto, Connor Prielipp, Andrew Morris, Marco Raya, Adrian Bohorquez, Cory Lewis, Travis Adams, Dasan Hill

Ugh, 9 arms in the top 30 is terrible.

Roque?

Consider that Festa and Matthews are closer to rookies too with far less than a year in MLB. The pitching is decent.

[DJL44]

43 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Roque?

Consider that Festa and Matthews are closer to rookies too with far less than a year in MLB. The pitching is decent.

They've graduated position players off the list recently, too.

They threw a lot of draft picks at college pitchers in 2023 but none of them seem to have panned out. They have underperformed at acquiring international free agent pitchers for at least the last decade.

[tony&rodney]

4 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

They've graduated position players off the list recently, too.

They threw a lot of draft picks at college pitchers in 2023 but none of them seem to have panned out. They have underperformed at acquiring international free agent pitchers for at least the last decade.

Fair comment. I guess I am one person who believes that the Twins have sufficient pitching to compete. The weakness of the team is more the other eight positions in my view.

[DocBauer]

OLIVAR: I wish I could be a little more excited about him. I'm intrigued, but not excited. Can he actually play catcher and call a good game? He sure can't throw. And I don't think there's enough power for LF or DH, not that power is everything. If you talk just HIT ability, bat to ball, good contact and good eye, he's one of the best hitting prospects in the system.

BELTRE: Agreed it's really hard to quantify such young players in a league of such young players. Still, when you're 17yo playing against other 16-19yo's and do that well in so many categories, it sure makes him look exciting. 

DeANDRADE: To me the biggest question is the glove. He'll still be 20yo at the begining of 2025 at what will probably be A+ to begin the season. Just a shame he missed so much time this year. Despite his youth, he's shown flashes of pop, speed, OB and hit ability. He doesn't have to be a GG at SS, just good. I think the bat looks like it will play.

SCHOBEL: I wouldn't have him in the top 20 at this point, but the Twins know him better than we do. He's got some speed and enough defense to be a viable SUPER UTILITY player in the future. But his bat hit the AA wall HARD upon arrival. He figures AA out in 2025, he's worth this spot. If not, he probably drops out if the top 30. 

MERCEDES: I think he's one of the most exciting prospects in the system and looks like he might build on the tremendous promise he showed in the DSL when signed. Looks like an actual 5 tool talent. If the Twins look to add other pieces to the 2025 roster via prospect trades, I can see a lot of teams asking about him.

 

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Pitchers who should be in the top 30:

CJ Culpepper, Charlee Soto, Connor Prielipp, Andrew Morris, Marco Raya, Adrian Bohorquez, Cory Lewis, Travis Adams, Dasan Hill

Ugh, 9 arms in the top 30 is terrible.

They literally graduated three guys last year......what are you expecting?

[DJL44]

7 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

They literally graduated three guys last year......what are you expecting?

To remain competitive with a $130M payroll they need to graduate 2-3 guys every year.

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, DJL44 said:

To remain competitive with a $130M payroll they need to graduate 2-3 guys every year.

2-3 pitchers every year? Because that's what I was replying to. You can't even fill that many spots...

[DJL44]

Just now, Mike Sixel said:

2-3 pitchers every year? Because that's what I was replying to. You can't even fill that many spots...

Assuming they're trading their veteran pitchers because they're too expensive then they need to fill nearly all 20 spots on the 40-man roster with pitchers having 5 or fewer years of service time. Pitchers get injured at a much higher rate than position players. They don't sign free agent pitchers. They have to produce a new starter and a new reliever every season.

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Assuming they're trading their veteran pitchers because they're too expensive then they need to fill nearly all 20 spots on the 40-man roster with pitchers having 5 or fewer years of service time. Pitchers get injured at a much higher rate than position players. They don't sign free agent pitchers. They have to produce a new starter and a new reliever every season.

They just signed Lopez, so I'm not sure I'm making that assumption. Nor do I think every bullpen position is internally developed. But, if that is your assumption, then sure. 

Does any team fill their entire pitching roster from within, and graduate 2-3 good pitchers every year? I seriously doubt that. 

[DJL44]

6 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Does any team fill their entire pitching roster from within, and graduate 2-3 good pitchers every year? I seriously doubt that. 

Tampa and Cleveland come closest.

[jmlease1]

4 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Pitchers who should be in the top 30:

CJ Culpepper, Charlee Soto, Connor Prielipp, Andrew Morris, Marco Raya, Adrian Bohorquez, Cory Lewis, Travis Adams, Dasan Hill

Ugh, 9 arms in the top 30 is terrible.

Here's the thing though: you're literally only drawing on starting pitching for a prospect list. Any pitcher who has transitioned to relief before getting to MLB isn't going to make a prospect list. So you're going to have more to draw from on the position side for a "prospect" list. Beyond that, the Twins have been pretty good at getting guys to jump on to the prospect list even when they are nowhere to be found after their draft year (where did you have Festa and Nowlin in 2021?) Throw in how hard it is to evaluate A-ball pitchers, and it doesn't seem too bad.

After graduating Festa and Matthews (who might not be officially allowed on prospect lists but are still mostly rookies anyways) the pitching list still seems ok.

[chpettit19]

Oof, Tanner Schobel at 17? Give me basically everyone on the "just missed" list over him. He'd barely crack my top 30.

Couple young, toolsy outfielders. Always good to have them as they fail at crazy rates, but they're also the ones who suddenly click and fly through systems to become stars. 

Agree with @DJL44 that I'd like to see some more arms on the lists today. I know there's some coming, but I like to see them all up and down the list because most of the ones coming still are going to flame out so we'll need more following up behind them. Not the end of the world by any means, but not ideal.

[Brandon]

The Twins have done a solid job of developing pitchers since the end of COVID which I think messed up their rhythm.  Ober, Festa, and Mathew’s are drafted and developed while Ryan and Woods-Richardson were traded for as prospects and Ryan only spent 5 minutes in our minors but Woods-Richardson was developed over time.  In the pen Jax, Sands and Moran (should be back from injury) were drafted and developed so was Theilbar technically, I forget if we traded or drafted Funderburk, Winder, Henriquez, and also technically Tonkin, and Alcala and Duran were traded for and developed,  and Louie Varland.  So I think our development team has done their part of developing pitchers.  

[DJL44]

2 minutes ago, Brandon said:

The Twins have done a solid job of developing pitchers since the end of COVID which I think messed up their rhythm.  Ober, Festa, and Mathew’s are drafted and developed while Ryan and Woods-Richardson were traded for as prospects and Ryan only spent 5 minutes in our minors but Woods-Richardson was developed over time.  In the pen Jax, Sands and Moran (should be back from injury) were drafted and developed so was Theilbar technically, I forget if we traded or drafted Funderburk, Winder, Henriquez, and also technically Tonkin, and Alcala and Duran were traded for and developed,  and Louie Varland.  So I think our development team has done their part of developing pitchers.  

Henriquez was a trade.

They've done okay but it looks pretty bare at the moment. I think Mathews was up too early because there was nothing else to try. Only a desperate team gives innings to Randy Dobnak.

AAA - Marco Raya, Andrew Morris, Cory Lewis, Travis Adams

AA - CJ Culpepper

A+ - Connor Prielipp

A - Charlee Soto, Adrian Bohorquez

Rk - Dasan Hill

The gap is in AA/A+ where those 2023 college draftees were supposed to help. Maybe Tanner Hall pans out. Half of the guys listed above will probably fall short of helping the big-league team.

The Twins only acquire pitchers by trade, draft or when they're dumped from some other team's roster. If they're not drafting well, then they're stuck mostly with castoffs.

[mikelink45]

I cannot offer a scouting report, but I like the last two on the list the best.

[Brandon]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Henriquez was a trade.

They've done okay but it looks pretty bare at the moment. I think Mathews was up too early because there was nothing else to try. Only a desperate team gives innings to Randy Dobnak.

AAA - Marco Raya, Andrew Morris, Cory Lewis, Travis Adams

AA - CJ Culpepper

A+ - Connor Prielipp

A - Charlee Soto, Adrian Bohorquez

Rk - Dasan Hill

The gap is in AA/A+ where those 2023 college draftees were supposed to help. Maybe Tanner Hall pans out. Half of the guys listed above will probably fall short of helping the big-league team.

The Twins only acquire pitchers by trade, draft or when they're dumped from some other team's roster. If they're not drafting well, then they're stuck mostly with castoffs.

There are reinforcements at AAA and we have a young staff that still has Three years together so we have time to develop more pitching 

[terrydactyls]

I'm amazed that Mercedes is just turning 20.  It seems like I've read about him for over five years now.  I'm looking forward to following Prielipp, Mercedes, Oliver and Canterino next summer.  That should be more fun than watching the Pohlad Poor House team in Minneapolis.

[LambchoP]

We really should have traded Tanner Schoebel when he was at peak value. We've got tons of infielders and not enough roster spots, we could have maybe packaged him with someone else to get some pitching. I'm excited about Beltre and Mercedes. It's just too bad they're so far away from the bigs. A little concerning there are no pitchers on this list...

[h2oface]

Writers love to say stuff like “2  years younger than the average player in the league.” to try to make unimpressive performance more palatable. If 25 is the average age in AA ball, that means he, at 23, is worse than players that mostly are minor league lifers, and will never see the show. Is that really a plus?

[twinstalker]

Schobel isn't a top 20 guy.  De Andrade should be a lot higher,  Flop him with Raya, wherever you have Raya.