Twins Daily's Top 20 Minnesota Twins Prospects: #20-#16

If Olivar's bat is good enough and his defense at catcher is bad enough to move him to LF they'll move him there. I don't see him as a "hybrid" player as much as they're preparing a backup plan in case he can't hack it behind the plate. Catching is hard enough work that it is unlikely the team will want to play him in the outfield on his off days. They'll pick someone else who doesn't have dead legs from squatting for hours the previous day.

It's great that they are doing well scouting international players. Too bad they can't find any pitchers. We've seen spots 16-29 on the list and the only pitcher is perpetually injured Matt Canterino. If they want to be competitive going forward 14 of the next 15 slots on the list should be pitchers. I know that won't happen which highlights how shallow this organization is when it comes to pitching.

i would not have ranked Schobel this high; he wouldn't crack my top 20. the AA wall hit him hard, but that's not the only issue he has: mah dude hasn't actually hit at any level as a professional outside of that 2023 stretch in high A. Not in a cup of coffee in rookie ball, not in Ft. Myers, and he's now spent more time in AA than anywhere and has not hit there either. The defense isn't good enough for him to hit this poorly. Looking at the big increase in K's this season as a bit of a warning sign that he can't handle higher level pitching. He still draws some walks, but he's getting overwhelmed by pitchers who don't have to fear him. Unless he takes a leap forward next season (which will be age 24 at AA) then he's probably done as a prospect. I'm always rooting for guys to prove me wrong, but he's not a top 30 guy, let alone top 20.

Olivar, on the other hand, is intriguing. Looking forward to seeing how he does in a full stretch at AA: he's hit effectively at his other stops, and if he can stick at catcher (even if he's just a part-time catcher) that could be a big deal. Looking forward to seeing if he can hit AA pitching and keep getting reps behind the plate.

De Andrade feels about right here. i was hoping to see him get some reps in the AFL to make up for the missed time this year, but he's been absent. I expect he'll start back in Cedar Rapids, but he's got the skills to move up to AA with a good start to the year. 

Pitchers who should be in the top 30:

CJ Culpepper, Charlee Soto, Connor Prielipp, Andrew Morris, Marco Raya, Adrian Bohorquez, Cory Lewis, Travis Adams, Dasan Hill

Ugh, 9 arms in the top 30 is terrible.

22 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Pitchers who should be in the top 30:

CJ Culpepper, Charlee Soto, Connor Prielipp, Andrew Morris, Marco Raya, Adrian Bohorquez, Cory Lewis, Travis Adams, Dasan Hill

Ugh, 9 arms in the top 30 is terrible.

Roque?

Consider that Festa and Matthews are closer to rookies too with far less than a year in MLB. The pitching is decent.

43 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Roque?

Consider that Festa and Matthews are closer to rookies too with far less than a year in MLB. The pitching is decent.

They've graduated position players off the list recently, too.

They threw a lot of draft picks at college pitchers in 2023 but none of them seem to have panned out. They have underperformed at acquiring international free agent pitchers for at least the last decade.

4 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

They've graduated position players off the list recently, too.

They threw a lot of draft picks at college pitchers in 2023 but none of them seem to have panned out. They have underperformed at acquiring international free agent pitchers for at least the last decade.

Fair comment. I guess I am one person who believes that the Twins have sufficient pitching to compete. The weakness of the team is more the other eight positions in my view.

7 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

They literally graduated three guys last year......what are you expecting?

To remain competitive with a $130M payroll they need to graduate 2-3 guys every year.

Just now, Mike Sixel said:

2-3 pitchers every year? Because that's what I was replying to. You can't even fill that many spots...

Assuming they're trading their veteran pitchers because they're too expensive then they need to fill nearly all 20 spots on the 40-man roster with pitchers having 5 or fewer years of service time. Pitchers get injured at a much higher rate than position players. They don't sign free agent pitchers. They have to produce a new starter and a new reliever every season.

6 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Does any team fill their entire pitching roster from within, and graduate 2-3 good pitchers every year? I seriously doubt that. 

Tampa and Cleveland come closest.

4 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Pitchers who should be in the top 30:

CJ Culpepper, Charlee Soto, Connor Prielipp, Andrew Morris, Marco Raya, Adrian Bohorquez, Cory Lewis, Travis Adams, Dasan Hill

Ugh, 9 arms in the top 30 is terrible.

Here's the thing though: you're literally only drawing on starting pitching for a prospect list. Any pitcher who has transitioned to relief before getting to MLB isn't going to make a prospect list. So you're going to have more to draw from on the position side for a "prospect" list. Beyond that, the Twins have been pretty good at getting guys to jump on to the prospect list even when they are nowhere to be found after their draft year (where did you have Festa and Nowlin in 2021?) Throw in how hard it is to evaluate A-ball pitchers, and it doesn't seem too bad.

After graduating Festa and Matthews (who might not be officially allowed on prospect lists but are still mostly rookies anyways) the pitching list still seems ok.

The Twins have done a solid job of developing pitchers since the end of COVID which I think messed up their rhythm.  Ober, Festa, and Mathew’s are drafted and developed while Ryan and Woods-Richardson were traded for as prospects and Ryan only spent 5 minutes in our minors but Woods-Richardson was developed over time.  In the pen Jax, Sands and Moran (should be back from injury) were drafted and developed so was Theilbar technically, I forget if we traded or drafted Funderburk, Winder, Henriquez, and also technically Tonkin, and Alcala and Duran were traded for and developed,  and Louie Varland.  So I think our development team has done their part of developing pitchers.  

2 minutes ago, Brandon said:

The Twins have done a solid job of developing pitchers since the end of COVID which I think messed up their rhythm.  Ober, Festa, and Mathew’s are drafted and developed while Ryan and Woods-Richardson were traded for as prospects and Ryan only spent 5 minutes in our minors but Woods-Richardson was developed over time.  In the pen Jax, Sands and Moran (should be back from injury) were drafted and developed so was Theilbar technically, I forget if we traded or drafted Funderburk, Winder, Henriquez, and also technically Tonkin, and Alcala and Duran were traded for and developed,  and Louie Varland.  So I think our development team has done their part of developing pitchers.  

Henriquez was a trade.

They've done okay but it looks pretty bare at the moment. I think Mathews was up too early because there was nothing else to try. Only a desperate team gives innings to Randy Dobnak.

AAA - Marco Raya, Andrew Morris, Cory Lewis, Travis Adams

AA - CJ Culpepper

A+ - Connor Prielipp

A - Charlee Soto, Adrian Bohorquez

Rk - Dasan Hill

The gap is in AA/A+ where those 2023 college draftees were supposed to help. Maybe Tanner Hall pans out. Half of the guys listed above will probably fall short of helping the big-league team.

The Twins only acquire pitchers by trade, draft or when they're dumped from some other team's roster. If they're not drafting well, then they're stuck mostly with castoffs.

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Henriquez was a trade.

They've done okay but it looks pretty bare at the moment. I think Mathews was up too early because there was nothing else to try. Only a desperate team gives innings to Randy Dobnak.

AAA - Marco Raya, Andrew Morris, Cory Lewis, Travis Adams

AA - CJ Culpepper

A+ - Connor Prielipp

A - Charlee Soto, Adrian Bohorquez

Rk - Dasan Hill

The gap is in AA/A+ where those 2023 college draftees were supposed to help. Maybe Tanner Hall pans out. Half of the guys listed above will probably fall short of helping the big-league team.

The Twins only acquire pitchers by trade, draft or when they're dumped from some other team's roster. If they're not drafting well, then they're stuck mostly with castoffs.

There are reinforcements at AAA and we have a young staff that still has Three years together so we have time to develop more pitching 

We really should have traded Tanner Schoebel when he was at peak value. We've got tons of infielders and not enough roster spots, we could have maybe packaged him with someone else to get some pitching. I'm excited about Beltre and Mercedes. It's just too bad they're so far away from the bigs. A little concerning there are no pitchers on this list...

Schobel isn't a top 20 guy.  De Andrade should be a lot higher,  Flop him with Raya, wherever you have Raya.