Offseason Handbook: An Attempt to Objectively Evaluate Rocco Baldelli - Caretaker Exclusive

[John Foley]

Research indicates managers don’t have as much impact on outcomes as you might think. Let’s evaluate how Minnesota's skipper's work stacks up in the modern game.

Image courtesy of © Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

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When a team underachieves and fails to meet expectations, the public discourse and attention quickly turn to the job performance and security of the club’s field manager. That often includes widespread calls for the manager to be fired, as though the manager is directly and solely responsible for the team’s disappointing performance.

With the Twins falling short of the playoffs because of a late-season collapse—for the second time in three seasons—the chorus to replace Rocco Baldelli reached a new octave. But, the club quickly squashed that idea, announcing on the season’s last day that Baldelli would be back as manager in 2025, albeit with some changes to his coaching staff. 

If our comment sections are a reliable indicator, it seems most of the Twins faithful have already definitively made up their mind about Baldelli’s work, one way or another. And, with six seasons in the dugout, there is plenty of work on which to base those judgments. After all, criticizing and second-guessing the manager of the Local Nine is as interwoven into the fabric of baseball as hot dogs and the crack of the bat.

Today, I want to try a more rigorous evaluation of Baldelli’s work at the helm of the Twins. What does research tell us about the impact of a manager? And what does the data reveal about Baldelli’s decision-making, in particular?

With this, I don’t have any aspirations of advocating for or against the Twins' decision to retain Baldelli for next season. Nor do I seek to try to convince any fans that they should change their viewpoint. I hope to express a framework for more objectively judging a manager’s work in the modern game, and investigate how Baldelli stacks up among his peers.

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[Otaknam]

Rocco depends too much on analytics, especially with starters. No manager intuition required, just see what the computer algorithm says. A starter cruises through six innings, 80 pitches, 1 run, four hits, one walk…….take him out because the computer told him to. There are other befuddling examples. Analytics has its place, but a manager needs to believe in his players too. A good example is when he removed Ryan after two innings in the 2023 playoff game against Houston that they lost 3-2. Two innings, one run, then bullpen game that did pitch well. But Rocco showed he had no confidence in Ryan, instead deferring to analytics. Result was a 3-2 loss. Why would any starter want to pitch for Baldelli if Rocco doesn’t trust them? Sonny Gray is a good example.

[Schmoeman5]

A lot to digest. The numbers I looked closest at were 1 run games and extra innings where decisions are magnified. Slightly over .500 in 1 run games. Slightly under in extra innings. All the rest is pied piper. To me he's just an avg. manager at best. But then again, that could be said about most MLB managers. Hyde in Baltimore is a good example. He held things together when he had no players. Now he has good players but he will be judged on his playoff record if they don't advance in 25. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

I've long been a believer that managers get way too much credit and way too much blame for what they accomplish with their team.  I think this article reinforces that opinion for me.  Team success has much more to do with success (and failure, and injury) of individual players than it has to do with which buttons the manager happens to press.  That doesn't mean there are no bad managerial decisions.  However, the "good" decisions tend to be balanced by the "bad" decisions, and vice versa, with the whole group of decisions tending to result in something near zero.  In 2019, Rocco Baldelli was a "genius" and this year he was an "idiot".  Neither of these are true but yet we, as fans, choose to look at it that way.  Recently the Guardians replaced their "legendary" "genius" manager and the new guy took them to unexpected heights this season. What does that say?

I'm also not sure that all of those base running results are really about the manager.  If Rocco were managing Ricky Henderson, all of those metrics would look better, but the Twins aren't built that way.  An article this past week pointed out that the Twins don't bunt because they aren't suited to bunt as individual players - that one definitely passes both the eye test and the foot speed test.  Don't misunderstand my skepticism of metrics for managers, it is a worthy pursuit, but much of the evidence of success or failure will end up being anecdotal. Did decision A apparently lead to outcome B and was that a good or a bad thing?  What is the clubhouse atmosphere?  Does the manager tend to put players into situations in which they can succeed?   No numbers.  No statistics.  Equally important (perhaps more important) to the evaluation. 

[Vanimal46]

Wow, that is a lot of information to sift through. I’m sure this took a lot of time to research and write, so kudos to the author. 

For those that continued watching the playoffs, we saw other teams utilize the same strategies Rocco used all season. He’s one of about 25 managers that can be described as “alright”. Tito Francona is always brought up as the gold standard when people demand a new manager. I guess we will see if he brings that same magic to Cincinnati. 

[LambchoP]

I do not like the fact that he seemingly makes decisions based solely on numbers and probabilities rather than in game outcomes like momentum, player confidence etc. If our starting pitcher has just struck out the last four batters and is absolutely rolling with a low pitch count, but Rocco preemptively pulls him because he's about to face the lineup for a third time irritated me. I also don't like the constant platooning, pinch hitting and having most of our young players move all over the place defensively. Players have said it helps them tremendously when they get to play the same position and hit in the same spot ddy in and day out. With Rocco, our guys never know what to expect which has to be hard on our rookies and young guys trying to figure everything out at the MLB level. His use of relief arms is questionable at best also. 

[David Maro]

How many other managers would PH a hitter like Margot who went 0-30+. He is a manager who has 0 feel for the game. He has a spread sheet that he refused to go away from. They talk about players being superstitious,but have a manager who moves them like chess pieces on the field and in the lineup.

[Jane Wilkens]

Most managers these days do pay attention to the Third Time Through The Order stats.  Yes, that's analytics, but something to consider in the decision.  "Believing" in players only takes you so far.  Do you wait until they start failing? Which may put your team behind?  I don't see Rocco ONLY using analytics for this decision.  There are other factors to take into account also.  Health, availability of bullpen, saving some bullets over the long season.  I think it's far more complicated than many seem to make it.

[TwinsDr2021]

(Not a fan of Rocco) but I will say he went from terrible to average the last few years, he has done less questionable things each year. With that said IMO he isn't the type of manager to lead a mid market team to a championship.

[Blyleven2011]

Rocco is not a major league manager or his coaches   , I will cut them no slack ...

Offense , He has players to his disposal and he can not get that talent to be complete professionals in the game of baseball  .. he doesn't teach them to bunt , steal bases , run the bases , hit behind the runners to advance runner into scoring position  , hit to opposite field ( the good hitters do ) , no adjustments are made with 2 strikes , no discipline at identifying a strike or a ball off the plate , they continue to swing away and fail miserably at driving runners in scoring position in ( runs do matter , its called rbi's ) , ( they don't have to take batting or infield practice  ,    his quote  not mine , the players need to come ready to play  but he doesn't emphasize  mentioned above )  , he continues to constructs poor lineups , the players don't know if they are batting lead off or number 9 in the order  ... 

Defense , poor  , lots of mistakes throwing to the wrong base or missing cutoff man  , a professional doesnt make mistakes , yes he may make an error but mistakes are lack of mental preparations that the game plan doesn't emphasize  ...

In ending , the plan that the FO  , manager and coaches has   , THEY HOLD NO ONE ACCOUNTABLE  and the manager has no strategy  ( if the manager continues to bundle things , the players will too ) ...

The people with the plan  are here for  another season  , if we can't afford to acquire good players because  of payroll  , then we need to take the talent  we have and teach that talent to be a better talent  ...

[LA Vikes Fan]

I think the truest statement in this article is that mangers get too much credit when the team wins and too much blame when the team loses. I live in LA and Dave Roberts is regularly savaged as an "idiot", yet he is the best by the stats listed above and the Dodgers just won the World Series. Before you say "Roberts gets no credit, it's the payroll", the Dodgers won by playing better fundamental baseball at the margins to beat a Yankees team with better pitching, far fewer injuries, and better middle of the order bats. Roberts deserves a lot of credit for this year's championship. And to think I thought he was an idiot.  

The stats above point out the objective truth - Rocco is an average to maybe slightly above average manager. His weaknesses are at the margins. The Twins don't and really can't really play small ball on offense to eke out runs and wins, the baserunning is ok but not an asset, and the defense is adequate but not above average except at SS and in CF when the starters are playing. Yes, part of that is the talent and the FO staying a little too long with the three true outcomes approach after 2019. The Twins don't have small ball players and have no speed to speak of. But that's not the whole story. Rocco doesn't seem to emphasize the running game or defense. On the positive side, he seems to have good rapport with his players and the team competes hard for him. He's fine, but not a guy who will elevate the team. The truth is there aren't very many guys who will so it's more likely that a change would hurt rather than help.  

[tony&rodney]

When I think of the type of baseball player that Baldelli was for the Tampa Bay Rays, it makes me wonder how much input he actually has as opposed to Falvey and I even attach that to in game decisions because they often seem extremely scripted. Ultimately, it is the players who have the greatest effect on the outcome to any game, by far.

[Parfigliano]

4 hours ago, Otaknam said:

Rocco depends too much on analytics, especially with starters. No manager intuition required, just see what the computer algorithm says. A starter cruises through six innings, 80 pitches, 1 run, four hits, one walk…….take him out because the computer told him to. There are other befuddling examples. Analytics has its place, but a manager needs to believe in his players too. A good example is when he removed Ryan after two innings in the 2023 playoff game against Houston that they lost 3-2. Two innings, one run, then bullpen game that did pitch well. But Rocco showed he had no confidence in Ryan, instead deferring to analytics. Result was a 3-2 loss. Why would any starter want to pitch for Baldelli if Rocco doesn’t trust them? Sonny Gray is a good example.

1000% right about Sonny Gray.

[Vanimal46]

1 hour ago, Parfigliano said:

1000% right about Sonny Gray.

Last year Sonny Gray still averaged less than 6 innings per start with an ERA increase from 2.79 to 3.84 last year. He went from 5.4 bWAR to 1.8. The Twins clearly got the best performance out of Gray. 

[mrcharlie]

7 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Rocco is not a major league manager or his coaches   , I will cut them no slack ...

Offense , He has players to his disposal and he can not get that talent to be complete professionals in the game of baseball  .. he doesn't teach them to bunt , steal bases , run the bases , hit behind the runners to advance runner into scoring position  , hit to opposite field ( the good hitters do ) , no adjustments are made with 2 strikes , no discipline at identifying a strike or a ball off the plate , they continue to swing away and fail miserably at driving runners in scoring position in ( runs do matter , its called rbi's ) , ( they don't have to take batting or infield practice  ,    his quote  not mine , the players need to come ready to play  but he doesn't emphasize  mentioned above )  , he continues to constructs poor lineups , the players don't know if they are batting lead off or number 9 in the order  ... 

Defense , poor  , lots of mistakes throwing to the wrong base or missing cutoff man  , a professional doesnt make mistakes , yes he may make an error but mistakes are lack of mental preparations that the game plan doesn't emphasize  ...

In ending , the plan that the FO  , manager and coaches has   , THEY HOLD NO ONE ACCOUNTABLE  and the manager has no strategy  ( if the manager continues to bundle things , the players will too ) ...

The people with the plan  are here for  another season  , if we can't afford to acquire good players because  of payroll  , then we need to take the talent  we have and teach that talent to be a better talent  ...

This hits it I believe.  Rocco needs to be accountable for the function of the on field personnel. Period.  His coaching staff left a lot to be desired, and too many runs into outs!  The Twins hitters  all have the same approach once in the box.  If I were an opponent I would relish the. Hance to face them...so easy to scout.  It made for boring baseball, and even more so when listening on the radio!! Gladden is worthless while Hattibury can't count balls and strikes.

[DocBauer]

I think the job of a manager is a lot like being a 3B coach. When a 3B coach makes a good read on a ball to the OF and sends a guy home and he beats a throw, everyone rejoices at the run scored. If that happens 3 times in a row, great. Make a bad read, or an OF makes a perfect throw, suddenly the coach is an idiot. 

A manager pulls a starter after 7 IP and 85 pitches in August but sees the heart of the lineup coming up again and goes to the pen, it's an OK move if the reliever does a good job. The reliever doesn't do a good job, the manager is an idiot.

While I've seen a few games where I HAVE questioned Rocco pulling a starter earlier than I thought he should of, the last 3 years when he's ACTUALLY HAD good arms like Gray, Lopez, Ryan, and Ober, he's not only let them throw 6 innings consistently, but he's let them throw a good 90-100 pitches. His handling of Ober in his rookie season and SWR as a rookie this past year were excellent. Twins SP have been amongst the league leaders in IP the past 3 seasons...the end of 2024 being a bit different to throwing 3 rookies out there...and the numbers are there to look up. The mantra about this needs to stop. And Gray is a poor example as well. He's never been a workhorse, despite WANTING himself to be. He was better with the Twins than the Reds last season and referenced once that I can recall reading he wanted to throw more. That's just his competitive nature, not an indictment of his manager for either team. If anyone recalls, he ALSO said while as a Twin that he appreciated when Rocco let him throw more...sometimes with a bad result...and said it was up to him to just pitch better.

(Sigh) Just had to get that off my chest. Lol

PLUSSES:

The players like playing for him. He provides a positive attitude. He doesn't throw players under the bus. Publicly, the closest he does so is a gentle shove.

He actually handles his starting staff, generally, very well, as I stated above. And again, he's done a great job nursing the rookie seasons out of Ober and SWR.

Everyone plays, for the most part, and he keeps the team on a positive plane. He backs his players and offers confidence in them.

NEGATIVES:

It's up to his coaches to do a lot of the WORK to make the team better. One man doesn't do EVERYTHING. But I DO think, as the manager, it's his job to make sure things like basic fundamentals and drills are worked on on a more consistent basis. I've seen some lapses that just shouldn't happen.

I think he's pretty solid in his handling of the pen. But I've been a firm objector to his handling of Alcala last season. I thought there were a few times last season where he turned to the pen at the wrong time. With a LH batter coming up and RH hitters behind them, he trusted someone like Okert to get a big out and pulled his starter, only to have Okert fail and then get hammered by the next couple of RH batters up. Some of that is the RP NOT DOING HIS JOB, and some is not having a better option. But once in a while, I think he went with the MATCHUP too quickly.

While I think he's gotten better, there were times in the past where he PH way too early in games and "ruined" match ups later in the game. And yes, it's rather incredulous how often Margot was sent up to PH in 2024. Law of averages doesn't work when it's failed over and over again. A belief in your players gets you only so far sometimes.

When a prospect is up, I get him sitting for a day or so to get acclimated. But to just sit on the bench and not be allowed to play and show if they can do the job, or maybe provide a spark, seems like a mistake to me.

NOT ROCCO'S FAULT:

Bunting is a lost art. Statistically, it's been proven over years or study that bunting HAS IT'S PLACE in certain situations. But generally speaking, the small ball of bunting runners can often DECREASE the percentage chances of scoring runs. Certainly a decrease in scoring more than ONE run. BUT, there ARE TIMES when it can make a difference. And maybe the hitting coaches can help various batters improve in those areas for those certain instances. Also, it's hard to run and steal bases when you don't have players with speed. Even then, you'd better be consistently at a 75% success rate or you statistically run yourself out of an inning. 

Statistics, long gathered over years of data are not only NOT evil, they are a fact. I'm not saying a manager shouldn't trust his gut at times in different situations, but statistics are not made up Voodoo.

Generally speaking, I think Rocco does a good, solid job, even though I've questioned some of his approaches at times. I think he's grown and adapted, and he himself has stated that he has. I think there's room for more growth and development for sure. But i think coaching from his staff is part of that. Again, the manager simply doesn't do everything. But I think he can have a "hand" in everything like something as simple as drills to keep players sharp.

Someone previously mentioned the great Francona leaving the Indians and they were suddenly better in 2024. Does that mean Francona had suddenly become a bad manager? Or is it more that a couple roster additions and much better health let the Guardians become a playoff team?

I don't think Rocco is a great manager. I do think he's a good, solid one who is better if his players are healthy, and he has more good players available to him to work with. It's part of the job of a manger, and his coaches to get the most out of the players he does have. But again, it's not all on him. And that's why part of the re-tool for 2025 begins with different hitting coaches. I'm fine with him back for next season as I think he's done a solid job overall. But I can certainly see a change for 2026 if positive results aren't shown. 

[Mark G]

I have said this before, and in my extremely humble opinion it bears repeating.

Let me count the ways a manager affects the day to day game:  he decides the starting pitcher; not only day by day, but the rotation as a whole.  He decides how long he stays in the game and the relief match ups if he takes him out.  He decides who plays that day and who comes off the bench.  He writes the lineup and decides the batting order.  He decides who pinch hits, when, and for whom; or decides not to pinch hit at all.  He decides whether to bring the infield all the way in, bring it half way in, put it at double play depth, or leave it back.  He also decides what shifts to put on, or whether to shift at all.  He decides whether or not to bring the outfield in to cut off a run, or put it back to cut off a potential double.  He decides whether to pitch to someone or go the IBB route..........oh, nuts, I have lost my count, so I will leave the rest to you all to take it from there.  

Bottom line is he has an impact on virtually every at bat in the game, whether it be in the field or at the plate.  Of course the players have to play the game, and, in the end, they come through or they don't, but it is the manager's job to put said players in positions where they are the most likely to succeed.  The concept that the manager, no matter what the "research" says, has little impact on day to day games is just bizarre to me.  And as Jane W so aptly pointed out, the decisions he makes each game can affect how he manages the next game, and the next, and the next.........

Rocco manages his statistics as well as anyone else in the game, I guess, and he is a very good clubhouse manager as I have said on this page before.  But between the lines, from the first out to the last, the statistics are only another tool in a manager's arsenal; he still has to have the instincts and the feel for how the game is going.  He has to go with his gut much of the time, and in that realm Rocco is at best, average, at worst mediocre.  I have also said this before here, when you keep the decision makers and let go the underlings who carry out the decisions, the decisions don't change, and maybe it is the decisions that matter more than who carries them out.  

[LA Vikes Fan]

21 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

Last year Sonny Gray still averaged less than 6 innings per start with an ERA increase from 2.79 to 3.84 last year. He went from 5.4 bWAR to 1.8. The Twins clearly got the best performance out of Gray. 

Agreed. Let's stop complaining about Sonny Gray leaving. Not paying him $25m a season was the right decision. Now, we can complain about not spending that $25m or even $15m on someone else.....