Offseason Handbook: An Attempt to Objectively Evaluate Rocco Baldelli

Rocco depends too much on analytics, especially with starters. No manager intuition required, just see what the computer algorithm says. A starter cruises through six innings, 80 pitches, 1 run, four hits, one walk…….take him out because the computer told him to. There are other befuddling examples. Analytics has its place, but a manager needs to believe in his players too. A good example is when he removed Ryan after two innings in the 2023 playoff game against Houston that they lost 3-2. Two innings, one run, then bullpen game that did pitch well. But Rocco showed he had no confidence in Ryan, instead deferring to analytics. Result was a 3-2 loss. Why would any starter want to pitch for Baldelli if Rocco doesn’t trust them? Sonny Gray is a good example.

I do not like the fact that he seemingly makes decisions based solely on numbers and probabilities rather than in game outcomes like momentum, player confidence etc. If our starting pitcher has just struck out the last four batters and is absolutely rolling with a low pitch count, but Rocco preemptively pulls him because he's about to face the lineup for a third time irritated me. I also don't like the constant platooning, pinch hitting and having most of our young players move all over the place defensively. Players have said it helps them tremendously when they get to play the same position and hit in the same spot ddy in and day out. With Rocco, our guys never know what to expect which has to be hard on our rookies and young guys trying to figure everything out at the MLB level. His use of relief arms is questionable at best also. 

Rocco is not a major league manager or his coaches   , I will cut them no slack ...

Offense , He has players to his disposal and he can not get that talent to be complete professionals in the game of baseball  .. he doesn't teach them to bunt , steal bases , run the bases , hit behind the runners to advance runner into scoring position  , hit to opposite field ( the good hitters do ) , no adjustments are made with 2 strikes , no discipline at identifying a strike or a ball off the plate , they continue to swing away and fail miserably at driving runners in scoring position in ( runs do matter , its called rbi's ) , ( they don't have to take batting or infield practice  ,    his quote  not mine , the players need to come ready to play  but he doesn't emphasize  mentioned above )  , he continues to constructs poor lineups , the players don't know if they are batting lead off or number 9 in the order  ... 

Defense , poor  , lots of mistakes throwing to the wrong base or missing cutoff man  , a professional doesnt make mistakes , yes he may make an error but mistakes are lack of mental preparations that the game plan doesn't emphasize  ...

In ending , the plan that the FO  , manager and coaches has   , THEY HOLD NO ONE ACCOUNTABLE  and the manager has no strategy  ( if the manager continues to bundle things , the players will too ) ...

The people with the plan  are here for  another season  , if we can't afford to acquire good players because  of payroll  , then we need to take the talent  we have and teach that talent to be a better talent  ...

When I think of the type of baseball player that Baldelli was for the Tampa Bay Rays, it makes me wonder how much input he actually has as opposed to Falvey and I even attach that to in game decisions because they often seem extremely scripted. Ultimately, it is the players who have the greatest effect on the outcome to any game, by far.

I think the job of a manager is a lot like being a 3B coach. When a 3B coach makes a good read on a ball to the OF and sends a guy home and he beats a throw, everyone rejoices at the run scored. If that happens 3 times in a row, great. Make a bad read, or an OF makes a perfect throw, suddenly the coach is an idiot. 

A manager pulls a starter after 7 IP and 85 pitches in August but sees the heart of the lineup coming up again and goes to the pen, it's an OK move if the reliever does a good job. The reliever doesn't do a good job, the manager is an idiot.

While I've seen a few games where I HAVE questioned Rocco pulling a starter earlier than I thought he should of, the last 3 years when he's ACTUALLY HAD good arms like Gray, Lopez, Ryan, and Ober, he's not only let them throw 6 innings consistently, but he's let them throw a good 90-100 pitches. His handling of Ober in his rookie season and SWR as a rookie this past year were excellent. Twins SP have been amongst the league leaders in IP the past 3 seasons...the end of 2024 being a bit different to throwing 3 rookies out there...and the numbers are there to look up. The mantra about this needs to stop. And Gray is a poor example as well. He's never been a workhorse, despite WANTING himself to be. He was better with the Twins than the Reds last season and referenced once that I can recall reading he wanted to throw more. That's just his competitive nature, not an indictment of his manager for either team. If anyone recalls, he ALSO said while as a Twin that he appreciated when Rocco let him throw more...sometimes with a bad result...and said it was up to him to just pitch better.

(Sigh) Just had to get that off my chest. Lol

PLUSSES:

The players like playing for him. He provides a positive attitude. He doesn't throw players under the bus. Publicly, the closest he does so is a gentle shove.

He actually handles his starting staff, generally, very well, as I stated above. And again, he's done a great job nursing the rookie seasons out of Ober and SWR.

Everyone plays, for the most part, and he keeps the team on a positive plane. He backs his players and offers confidence in them.

NEGATIVES:

It's up to his coaches to do a lot of the WORK to make the team better. One man doesn't do EVERYTHING. But I DO think, as the manager, it's his job to make sure things like basic fundamentals and drills are worked on on a more consistent basis. I've seen some lapses that just shouldn't happen.

I think he's pretty solid in his handling of the pen. But I've been a firm objector to his handling of Alcala last season. I thought there were a few times last season where he turned to the pen at the wrong time. With a LH batter coming up and RH hitters behind them, he trusted someone like Okert to get a big out and pulled his starter, only to have Okert fail and then get hammered by the next couple of RH batters up. Some of that is the RP NOT DOING HIS JOB, and some is not having a better option. But once in a while, I think he went with the MATCHUP too quickly.

While I think he's gotten better, there were times in the past where he PH way too early in games and "ruined" match ups later in the game. And yes, it's rather incredulous how often Margot was sent up to PH in 2024. Law of averages doesn't work when it's failed over and over again. A belief in your players gets you only so far sometimes.

When a prospect is up, I get him sitting for a day or so to get acclimated. But to just sit on the bench and not be allowed to play and show if they can do the job, or maybe provide a spark, seems like a mistake to me.

NOT ROCCO'S FAULT:

Bunting is a lost art. Statistically, it's been proven over years or study that bunting HAS IT'S PLACE in certain situations. But generally speaking, the small ball of bunting runners can often DECREASE the percentage chances of scoring runs. Certainly a decrease in scoring more than ONE run. BUT, there ARE TIMES when it can make a difference. And maybe the hitting coaches can help various batters improve in those areas for those certain instances. Also, it's hard to run and steal bases when you don't have players with speed. Even then, you'd better be consistently at a 75% success rate or you statistically run yourself out of an inning. 

Statistics, long gathered over years of data are not only NOT evil, they are a fact. I'm not saying a manager shouldn't trust his gut at times in different situations, but statistics are not made up Voodoo.

Generally speaking, I think Rocco does a good, solid job, even though I've questioned some of his approaches at times. I think he's grown and adapted, and he himself has stated that he has. I think there's room for more growth and development for sure. But i think coaching from his staff is part of that. Again, the manager simply doesn't do everything. But I think he can have a "hand" in everything like something as simple as drills to keep players sharp.

Someone previously mentioned the great Francona leaving the Indians and they were suddenly better in 2024. Does that mean Francona had suddenly become a bad manager? Or is it more that a couple roster additions and much better health let the Guardians become a playoff team?

I don't think Rocco is a great manager. I do think he's a good, solid one who is better if his players are healthy, and he has more good players available to him to work with. It's part of the job of a manger, and his coaches to get the most out of the players he does have. But again, it's not all on him. And that's why part of the re-tool for 2025 begins with different hitting coaches. I'm fine with him back for next season as I think he's done a solid job overall. But I can certainly see a change for 2026 if positive results aren't shown.