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Minutes before team executive chairman Joe Pohlad confirmed that Derek Falvey will return as the Twins' chief baseball decision-maker next season, Falvey affirmed that manager Rocco Baldelli had the same job security.
Baldelli was hired as a 37-year-old first-time manager after the 2018 season. In his first year, he led the Bomba Squad to a 101-win season, the largest year-over-year improvement in the American League, and a new baseball record for home runs hit, at 307. Following the season, he won Manager of the Year, and spoke to the value of creating relationships, clubhouse vibes, rest, and communication.
Those priorities have largely worked. Over his six seasons managing the Twins, Baldelli has a .526 winning percentage—best of any Twins Manager over the past 50 years. Over that span, he has led the Twins to the AL Central title three times, in 2019, 2020, and 2023. That last squad broke the Twins’ playoff curse, advancing to the ALDS where they lost to the Houston Astros.
Because of the Twins' late-season collapse, fans have questioned which prominent figures might take the blame. Most of the time, someone takes the fall when expectations go unmet in such dramatic fashion. Often, this starts with members of the coaching staff. The manager goes next, and eventually the front office. The Twins have demonstrated this process in the last decade during the “Total System Failure” years.
The Twins are typically tight-lipped about the contract status of non-player personnel. This led to recent deliberation around whether wholesale changes could be coming to the front office, as there was uncertainty around whether Derek Falvey and Thad Levine were still under contract beyond 2024. That said, we do know that Baldelli is under contract through at least the 2025 season, and the implication has been that the team at least holds an option for his services in 2026.
Based on this alone, given the Twins payroll situation, it was always unlikely the front office would choose to pay two managers for a season. That said, there are two reasons that Baldelli may have been let go following the disappointing finish to the season.
First, the manager is the most visible target when things break down. He gives the postgame interviews, is theoretically responsible for energizing the team, and makes the lineup decisions. When a team loses consistently, it’s possible it’s on the manager. It was, and remains, uncertain how the front office viewed the reasons for the collapse, and more broadly, how they have felt about the job Baldelli has been doing overall.
Second, a portion of the fanbase believes that Baldelli only manages by spreadsheet and doesn’t understand the game. Over the past six weeks, there has been speculation that Baldelli has lost the clubhouse, and that that’s why the team has faltered. During recent games, fans led chants of “fire Rocco”.
However, a number of players (including Carlos Correa, Bailey Ober, Pablo Lopez, and Kyle Farmer) have placed the blame for poor play squarely on themselves. That reflects at least some measure of veteran support for the skipper within the clubhouse.
For now, it’s entirely possible we will see the most likely outcome of some changes on the coaching staff, and it may be necessary. It just won't extend as far up the leadership ladder as some fans might have wanted or expected.
“This will bother me forever, there will be no way around that," Baldelli said after the team was eliminated Friday night. "I will think about it a lot and I will use it to motivate myself in a lot of different ways going forward, because I never want to experience that again.”
With today’s news, Baldelli will have at least one more chance to prove it, by once again leading the team to the postseason. Meanwhile, his boss will undertake the work of remaking the roster with a bit better depth and durability.
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