So, Royce Lewis Isn't Slump-Proof. Now What? - Caretaker Exclusive

[Parker Hageman]

Royce Lewis told reporters earlier this year that he doesn’t do that slump thing. That’s cap.

Image courtesy of © Brad Rempel-Imagn Images

On Jun. 18, Royce Lewis went 0-for-5 with a pair of strikeouts against Tampa Bay. The very next day, he went 3-for-4 with a home run. Afterward, he told reporters that “I don’t do that slump thing,” and proceeded to launch two more home runs in each of the next two games for good measure.

To paraphrase Arrested Development, players somehow delude themselves into thinking they’ll never slump, but it never works… but it might just work for Royce.

[Narrator: It did not.]

Before we get too deep into this, we must acknowledge that Lewis is likely playing through some sort of injury, and the most notable indicator is his decline in sprint speed. According to Baseball Savant, Lewis has lost two feet per second in his overall sprint speed compared to the previous two seasons (26.3 feet per second, compared to 28.4 in 2022 and 28.2 in 2023). This season, Edouard Julien, Alex Kirilloff, and Max Kepler have better sprint speeds. For someone whose speed was very much a touted tool coming up, it has eroded fairly quickly for Lewis, leading one to conclude that a lower-half injury is a significant factor in his overall play.

And it’s not just about speed: The movements that help a player run fast are vital in the hitting process, creating ground force to generate bat speed and power. Offensively, he’s seen a decline in his average exit velocity, percentage of balls hit 95 mph or harder, and fly-ball distance--all key metrics for power production. There may be some underlying physical issues that are causing a lot of slippage in his output.

When players are trying to play through discomfort, there exists the potential that they will alter something mechanical or in their process that will cause issues downstream. For instance, hitters who might not feel they have their usual power output might try swinging harder or unintentionally pulling the ball, to make up for not quite moving as their best selves. Layered on top of that is the fact that players are human, and can fall into the trap of forcing things when the going is not so good. Hitters will expand their zones, swinging at everything and anything to get themselves out of a slump.

These are probably two elements of Royce Lewis's current state, and teams have begun to take advantage of that.

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[USNMCPO]

I don't have the data but it seems to me that much of the team have lost the strength to hit the ball. It just seems like the batted ball speed has decreased dramatically making opponents defense that much easier.

[LambchoP]

Oh Royce, you never should have said that. I just think he's been in the league long enough now that the pitchers have a book on him. They know how to get him out now and he needs to make an adjustment. He's never had to do that before, because he was never on the field long enough to struggle. I hope he can figure it out, stay healthy and put together a monster season next year. Or, he could refuse to change, continue striking out up and in and flailing at sliders down and away. Baseball is all about adjustment. A new manager and hitting coach sure wouldn't hurt either ....

[Craig Arko]

I’d guess Royce becomes a little wiser in the public statements he makes in the future. 

[Patzky]

51 minutes ago, Craig Arko said:

I’d guess Royce becomes a little wiser in the public statements he makes in the future. 

Pretty sure that slump comment was what they call Locker Room Bulletin Board Fodder for opposing pitchers.

[brycenation]

OK - do others on TD see Royce's feet moving all over the place as the pitch is being delivered, mostly almost in a mini back pedal. Never noticed this until the last couple months. He rarely seems to have a solid base or foundation as he is beginning his swing.  No way he can generate exit velo or consistent barrel contact. 

[insagt1]

Used to be we complained that all the Twins hitters were simply swinging for the 3 run HR and lost touch with how else to score runs.

Now, not only don't they know how to generate runs with 'small ball', their power has totally disappeared. Lewis and Miranda aren't going deep anymore. Santana gets one once in awhile but his offense has also shut down. And down the line we go. Wallner will hit one occasionally. Larnach the same. But over the past few weeks, with Twins losing most the time, the hitting has been weak to non-existent. Lewis has been 'discovered' by opposing pitchers and he is merely a shell of what he was. His AB's are hard to watch.

Yeah, he's probably playing hurt...admirable maybe but its not helping the team.

Twins won't survive the week playing like this. There is no magic bullet to prevent days like yesterday when everyone simply didn't show up. The door is still open, but if they can't sweep the lowly 99 loss Marlins clearly they do need to pack up and go home. Anything less than 3 wins will be unacceptable and probably will knock them out of the race.

Seriously though, just when I think a team can't look any worse.....there are my dear Orioles who have purchased their own dumpster for a nice hot fire. Ah, baseball.

Yes, as fans we should be hopeful and positive.....but.....really????

[Riverbrian]

40 minutes ago, brycenation said:

OK - do others on TD see Royce's feet moving all over the place as the pitch is being delivered, mostly almost in a mini back pedal. Never noticed this until the last couple months. He rarely seems to have a solid base or foundation as he is beginning his swing.  No way he can generate exit velo or consistent barrel contact. 

Yes

It's bizarre and I've noticed it since his arrival. It was working for awhile so I didn't worry about it. 

Now... well... I don't know. His timing appears to be off. 

[Parfigliano]

2 hours ago, LambchoP said:

Oh Royce, you never should have said that. I just think he's been in the league long enough now that the pitchers have a book on him. They know how to get him out now and he needs to make an adjustment. He's never had to do that before, because he was never on the field long enough to struggle. I hope he can figure it out, stay healthy and put together a monster season next year. Or, he could refuse to change, continue striking out up and in and flailing at sliders down and away. Baseball is all about adjustment. A new manager and hitting coach sure wouldn't hurt either ....

Be the ball.  Danny

[Road trip]

Lewis will be better next year, I hope.  Looks like he needs a little time to get healthy, and some instruction to reevaluate his approach.  I still like his potential, but he looks like he is trying to hit a 5 run homer every time he comes up.  Remember when he used to hit the other way, often with power?  Everything gets pulled now, even trying to pull pitches 6 inches off the plate.  That's a disease that has affected a large number of Twins hitters.

[Vanimal46]

Lewis saying I don’t do slumps will hopefully be the dumbest thing he will ever say in his professional baseball career. 

Pictures: Baseball Gods immediately after hearing the quote

[bean5302]

A lot of stuff going on with Royce I'd say. Tossing him aside in favor of Brooks Lee, who couldn't hit or play defense well, and moving Lewis to 2B despite not wanting to go there messed with his head. When your management kinda says "you suck" while you're one of the only guys holding the team together, and the face of the franchise, it's going to hit pretty hard. I have no doubt that took a lot of wind out of Lewis' sails. Aside from that, he has been playing less than 100% from the quad strain all this year. Not sure what else might be going on, but Baldelli has been penciling in Lewis a lot of DH.

[Galen]

Arrogance has it's price

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Sometime between 2022 and 2023, Lewis went from franchise cornerstone to utility infielder. The team has treated him as such, and it has been evident in his comments to the media and play on the field. He is playing exactly to expectations.

I’m sure there is data that will either confirm or deny that. I think Lewis comes up big at least one more time in 2024.

At some point, wouldn’t we want to see the team take a chance on one of their young guys and lock them up like KC did with Witt? Maybe Jenkins will be that guy once they have flexibility for that sort of thing again. 

I would have rolled the dice on Lewis.

[Karbo]

The biggest thing I've noticed is he isn't hitting the ball very hard which is bore out by the barrel%. I do think he's playing hurt and I respect him for trying, and for is upbeat personality. The only guys that are hitting the ball hard with any regularity seem to be Larnach and Wallner, and up till this past weekend, Correa. They're hitting the Twins way. Swing hard, hope you hit it and try to pull the ball in the air. Opposing pitchers stay away, away, and then in hard. If they just go with the pitch the opposite way there's a lot of hits over there. Eventually, as pitchers see this, they will come inside and then let it rip.

[RpR]

A lot of whishful thinking - he is hurt - excuses but what you see may be all you will get., at that, at the end of last year and the start of this year, Wallner absolutely stunk, but he went to AAA and improved.

Now he may never be better than a young Joey Gallo but he improved.

Such MAY be the road for Lewis,

 

[bean5302]

18 minutes ago, RpR said:

A lot of whishful thinking - he is hurt - excuses but what you see may be all you will get., at that, at the end of last year and the start of this year, Wallner absolutely stunk, but he went to AAA and improved.

Now he may never be better than a young Joey Gallo but he improved.

Such MAY be the road for Lewis,

 

In theory, he could be sent down to AAA, not that he needs it. What Lewis needs is management that supports him, a static position so he can get the repetition he needs to improve and experience.

Not sure why you throw a bit about a mediocre hack like Joey Gallo in here unless you're trolling. In just his first 70 games, Lewis put up as much value as Gallo's 2nd best career season.

[Road trip]

58 minutes ago, RpR said:

A lot of whishful thinking - he is hurt - excuses but what you see may be all you will get., at that, at the end of last year and the start of this year, Wallner absolutely stunk, but he went to AAA and improved.

Now he may never be better than a young Joey Gallo but he improved.

Such MAY be the road for Lewis,

 

Joey Gallo had one injury-shortened year where his OPS+ was better than 121.  For his career he's at 109.  Even in his youth when he was hitting 40 homers a year his on base average was miserable.

Wallner has a career OPS+ of 139, and 149 this year.  He's improved a bit, but mostly he is what he has always been despite the many doubters.  Gallo's stat rates are far in the rear view mirror, no matter how much you want to run Wallner down by making the comparison. 

If you don't think Lewis is playing hurt you must not be watching him run this year compared to how he ran in the past.

[Linus]

Just like every young player you don’t know what you have until they get 1000 - 1500 at bats. We will see. And people need to lighten up on his slumps comment. He clarified his statement to say that he doesn’t let slumps get him down like some players not that he won’t experience slumps. 

[CRF]

Next season, we'll get to see if he's learned anything from how things went this season. If he can adjust to the way pitchers adjusted to him. It looks like he was starting to believe all the hype surround his success, and now he found out it isn't that easy. He hasn't really played that much, and he's still young. He's got the skills. If he can stay off the IL for a while, I think he can do it.  

[RpR]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

In theory, he could be sent down to AAA, not that he needs it. What Lewis needs is management that supports him, a static position so he can get the repetition he needs to improve and experience.

Not sure why you throw a bit about a mediocre hack like Joey Gallo in here unless you're trolling. In just his first 70 games, Lewis put up as much value as Gallo's 2nd best career season.

Because Wallner's stats look like Gallo, simple as that.

Gallo followed by Wallner

[FargoFanMan]

Maybe it’s an injury but it looks to me he’s pressing. Balls he should be hitting to right field hard he’s rolling over or when he does get around on it he’s hitting it weakly to left field. The hit he had in Boston off the monster was exactly what I’m talking about. It was up and away and he managed to get around on it. Anywhere else it’s just another weak flyball to left. Everyone wants to talk about all his power he had last year but does anyone remember what his approach was when he first came back last year? When the Twins were on their way to leading the league in strikeouts he was the one player hitting the ball where it was pitched. He had a complete approach that allowed him to get those middle in pitches. He was a complete hitter in June and part of July. Hitting the ball where it was pitched. Liners to right field when the ball was away. Liners back up the middle. Then when pitchers would come inside then he would show the power putting the ball in the stands. Then against the Astros in the playoffs they started pitching him away away away. Yeah he hit a few but there was quite a few K’s in there. He needs to simplify his approach. He’s either out front in a bad swing position or he’s behind the balls he should be punishing. He’s got all the power still. Just the wrong approach. This was bound to happen and he just needs to work out of it like any young hitter. Just happens to be at the wrong time.

[NYCTK]

4 hours ago, bean5302 said:

In theory, he could be sent down to AAA, not that he needs it. What Lewis needs is management that supports him, a static position so he can get the repetition he needs to improve and experience.

Not sure why you throw a bit about a mediocre hack like Joey Gallo in here unless you're trolling. In just his first 70 games, Lewis put up as much value as Gallo's 2nd best career season.

Mediocre hack Joey Gallo had more bWAR than Matt Wallner in his age 25-26 seasons. So...what does that make Wallner? 

I fear a lot of you are in for a rude awakening with Matt. He's not as bad as he was in the first couple weeks. But his incredible stretch was driven by a 500 babip. He's going to be playable, but he's not going to be a star with his K rate and poor defense. There will be times he can win the game with his bat. And there will be 3 week stretches where you're cursing his name. 

His career babip is 360. We should not expect that to hold. He's going to hit 235 next year. 

[joefish]

23 hours ago, brycenation said:

OK - do others on TD see Royce's feet moving all over the place as the pitch is being delivered, mostly almost in a mini back pedal. Never noticed this until the last couple months. He rarely seems to have a solid base or foundation as he is beginning his swing.  No way he can generate exit velo or consistent barrel contact. 

His back foot bails out.

[bean5302]

16 hours ago, RpR said:

Because Wallner's stats look like Gallo, simple as that.

Gallo followed by Wallner

Uh, talking about Royce Lewis here. 

[RpR]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

Uh, talking about Royce Lewis here. 

I said, Lewis should get the cure that greatly helped Wallner and then you went off on Gallo, whom Wallner is most like.

Que sera, sera.

[S Bart]

slump proof or slump prone?

[S Bart]

It would be wise for him to concentrate on batting practice and improving his play. At times, he comes off as a bit of a showoff such as when he gets a single.  He may be a "flash in the pan" if he does not start concentrating on improving as a ballplayer (WORK on batting weaknesses to specific pitches this winter at some type of program). The early grand slams may have enlarged his head a bit.

[akmanak]

You trade him, it is that simple .