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On Jun. 18, Royce Lewis went 0-for-5 with a pair of strikeouts against Tampa Bay. The very next day, he went 3-for-4 with a home run. Afterward, he told reporters that “I don’t do that slump thing,” and proceeded to launch two more home runs in each of the next two games for good measure.
To paraphrase Arrested Development, players somehow delude themselves into thinking they’ll never slump, but it never works… but it might just work for Royce.
[Narrator: It did not.]
Before we get too deep into this, we must acknowledge that Lewis is likely playing through some sort of injury, and the most notable indicator is his decline in sprint speed. According to Baseball Savant, Lewis has lost two feet per second in his overall sprint speed compared to the previous two seasons (26.3 feet per second, compared to 28.4 in 2022 and 28.2 in 2023). This season, Edouard Julien, Alex Kirilloff, and Max Kepler have better sprint speeds. For someone whose speed was very much a touted tool coming up, it has eroded fairly quickly for Lewis, leading one to conclude that a lower-half injury is a significant factor in his overall play.
And it’s not just about speed: The movements that help a player run fast are vital in the hitting process, creating ground force to generate bat speed and power. Offensively, he’s seen a decline in his average exit velocity, percentage of balls hit 95 mph or harder, and fly-ball distance--all key metrics for power production. There may be some underlying physical issues that are causing a lot of slippage in his output.
When players are trying to play through discomfort, there exists the potential that they will alter something mechanical or in their process that will cause issues downstream. For instance, hitters who might not feel they have their usual power output might try swinging harder or unintentionally pulling the ball, to make up for not quite moving as their best selves. Layered on top of that is the fact that players are human, and can fall into the trap of forcing things when the going is not so good. Hitters will expand their zones, swinging at everything and anything to get themselves out of a slump.
These are probably two elements of Royce Lewis's current state, and teams have begun to take advantage of that.
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- Patzky, Karbo and Cory Engelhardt
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