Make It Official! Twins 5, Rays 4: Trevor Larnach, Royce Lewis, Brooks Lee Force Rays to Take the L

[JD-TWINS]

10 hours ago, mnfireman said:

I'm thinking tomorrow....

Exactly - top end relievers are gassed after Monday. Hoping Festa backs up his last start with another gem - Castillo, Thielbar, Blewett,  & Tonkin today in relief.

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

Excellent win, here are a few observations:

1. So glad to see Miranda and Lewis bust their slump.  I like the look of our lineup.  
2. Glad Santana is down in the order, I hope Lee keeps going and pushes him down another slot.
3. SWR was due a clunker and the fact we won anyway was excellent.
4. I think Rocco did well tonight - lineup, RPs.  But what is Farmer's PH record?  I cannot remember when this was last successful.  This is a crazy obsession.

IMO, Rocco always looks good when the players do what’s expected. Players play - their output drives the Team’s success. 

Pitchers leave change-ups waist high (SWR) & guys get hits 26% of the time (that’s a good rate) so the Manager giving guys opportunities to succeed in varying situations is his job……..the results fall on the players.

Farmer had a 6-7 pitch AB and hit a rocket at the SS……nothing wrong g with that move. If Farmer’s ball lands in LF the comment is “it’s about time”…..,no winning for him at this point.

[wabene]

9 hours ago, hitterscount said:

That’s how your closer should be used, only took 130 games to figure it out.

As reported by Nate Palmer of Twins Daily, "As Baldelli continued to move the chess pieces, next up was Griffin Jax to face the Rays' 2-3-4 batters. Jax very clearly has become the most trusted reliever in the Twins bullpen, and deploying him in the seventh Monday evening was further evidence of that." Lol

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

The rotation has been overstretched especially rookie Sims. Last night was a result of that. Our BP has been overstretched, we come into tonight's game with Alcala, Jax & Duran spent. Alcala looked kind of shaky but he didn't give up any runs & got the win. Sands should be available even though he pitched last night, that leaves pretty much Blewitt or Tonkin if there is a low-leverage opportunity. We desperately need Varland & Winder,

Our line-up is worn down,  Castro had been at SS too long, Martin in CF too long, Lewis admitted to being tired still he was put at 2B to learn. I like Helman but I don't see why he was brought up. 2B is his best position but we already have Julien plus versatile Farmer, Castro, Martin, Lee & now Lewis to play there. IMO we need much more help in CF & our line-up against predominately RHPs than much less frequent LHPs.

Going into a long road trip with little rest, I'm concerned.

Zero rest. From Tampa to K.C. with no rest. Then home to Angels with no rest until the 12th.

Gotta suck it up - it’s a grind……….it’s obviously not working out for Boston, Detroit, or Seattle. They are now 5.5, 6.0, & 6.5 games behind the Twins.

Am thinking Sands is down too as he’s pitched 2 straight days. Pen is scary today.

[DJL44]

10 hours ago, mnfireman said:

The 10 hits tonight was nice, but going 2-10 with RISP, not advancing runners and 2-out hitting all need improvement.

3 for 10 with RISP would be above expectations. Team batting average is .252. Why would you expect much better than 2 for 10?

[Mortimerkenny21]

11 hours ago, Peter said:

This was way way way stressful and nerve wracking 😬😬😬my nerves are fried 🔥🔥🔥🔥bullpen was great in getting huge huge huge win to start off series!!! 

Ooooffdah! That was a close one!

[jmlease1]

17 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

3 for 10 with RISP would be above expectations. Team batting average is .252. Why would you expect much better than 2 for 10?

Because as a general rule, players tend to have better results with runners on base?

[hitterscount]

20 minutes ago, wabene said:

As reported by Nate Palmer of Twins Daily, "As Baldelli continued to move the chess pieces, next up was Griffin Jax to face the Rays' 2-3-4 batters. Jax very clearly has become the most trusted reliever in the Twins bullpen, and deploying him in the seventh Monday evening was further evidence of that." Lol

They have two reliable arms, well some/most days , Jax and Duran. I have no issue deploying Jax where the situation dictates. Duran should be the closer and used in the 9th and extra inning games, just my opinion .  Duran really seems to struggle when pitching outside those roles. 

[DJL44]

42 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

Because as a general rule, players tend to have better results with runners on base?

The league is hitting .244 but with RISP the league is hitting .252. That's not very significant.

The Twins are hitting .243 with RISP and .252 overall so they are slightly below expectations. They're about 10 hits short on the season.

All of this is in the noise. If the Twins get up 4 times with runners in scoring position, expect them to get 1 hit.

[LA Vikes Fan]

12 hours ago, mnfireman said:

The 10 hits tonight was nice, but going 2-10 with RISP, not advancing runners and 2-out hitting all need improvement.

The pitching did hold the Rays to 1-9 with RISP, SWR managed to wriggle out of enough trouble to keep it close.

This. We're back to scoring most of our runs by way of the HR and not scratching out runs. Of course, a lot of that is we don't have a lot of speed as a team but we're not doing a great job stringing together hits to get a run here and run there. That to me is our biggest offense of weakness. That is a classic weakness a young team; pressing with runners on base. Right now, Larnach seems to be the big exception. It would really help if one of the other young guys in the middle the lineup like Lewis or Miranda could get hot with runners in scoring position.

[mnfireman]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

3 for 10 with RISP would be above expectations. Team batting average is .252. Why would you expect much better than 2 for 10?

Last 7 games (SSS) with RISP - 13-54 .241 BA:

2-10, .200 BA last night

2-14, .143 BA against TOR

9-30, .300 BA against ATL

Season average with RISP is .243, over the last 7 games the team is right there, but breaking down SSS shows that they go through extreme peaks and valleys to get there.

Remove the first two games against ATL, the team is 6-32, .187 BA with RISP over their last 5 games, not even close to their full-season BA with RISP of .243. If you add the 4-15 in game 2 against ATL, the team is still 10-47, .212 BA with RISP in its last 6 games. Still not a .243 BA, so the 3-7 in game one against ATL helped the overall numbers. Extreme peaks and valleys.

Regression to the norm, especially if there are prolonged slumps, includes some 3-7, 3-10, 4-10 and even 5-10 games.

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

3 for 10 with RISP would be above expectations. Team batting average is .252. Why would you expect much better than 2 for 10?

Agree - I think .245 is League average in all AB’s - guys aren’t going 4-9 just because that would be cool. Probably the Manager’s fault for not letting the guy that was sure to get a hit come up to bat.

[JD-TWINS]

9 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

Last 7 games (SSS) with RISP - 13-54 .241 BA:

2-10, .200 BA last night

2-14, .143 BA against TOR

9-30, .300 BA against ATL

Season average with RISP is .243, over the last 7 games the team is right there, but breaking down SSS shows that they go through extreme peaks and valleys to get there.

Remove the first two games against ATL, the team is 6-32, .187 BA with RISP over their last 5 games, not even close to their full-season BA with RISP of .243. If you add the 4-15 in game 2 against ATL, the team is still 10-47, .212 BA with RISP in its last 6 games. Still not a .243 BA, so the 3-7 in game one against ATL helped the overall numbers. Extreme peaks and valleys.

Regression to the norm, especially if there are prolonged slumps, includes some 3-7, 3-10, 4-10 and even 5-10 games.

Same with Ober’s ERA - a number of games giving up 1 or 2 & then 8…….it’s an average, everyone understands that. If the Team is at their average over 7 games, regardless of wins and losses, it’s where they’re expected to be. If they are at their average, there is no regression to the norm with excellent %’s. Can always break things down into Series or Weeks or Months to get a desirable outcome for an argument/point……..I hope they get hot as well!

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

Zero rest. From Tampa to K.C. with no rest. Then home to Angels with no rest until the 12th.

Gotta suck it up - it’s a grind……….it’s obviously not working out for Boston, Detroit, or Seattle. They are now 5.5, 6.0, & 6.5 games behind the Twins.

Am thinking Sands is down too as he’s pitched 2 straight days. Pen is scary today.

I am thinking possibly the same.

I'm thinking of possibly they need more of a break than to suck it up. Especially Castro, I think a break would produce better production than sucking it up especially when we have quality backups waiting for an opportunity.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

Because as a general rule, players tend to have better results with runners on base?

The league is batting .235 with no runners on (Twins .245) & .256 with runners on (Twins .260). 

Still hard to expect too much better than 2-fer-10

[Riverbrian]

7 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Agree - I think .245 is League average in all AB’s - guys aren’t going 4-9 just because that would be cool. Probably the Manager’s fault for not letting the guy that was sure to get a hit come up to bat.

Clutch Hitting is an interesting and hard thing to assess. It absolutely matters in each individual moment but it equalizes over the long haul of a season. So it's hard to say exactly how much of a difference maker it is. 

Comparing the Royals and the Twins - I'll add the D-Backs who are perhaps the most clutch team in MLB at this point of the season. Here are the numbers and rankings at this point of the season... followed by overall numbers and rankings. 

BA/RISP BA All PA's

Royals .290 (#1) .254 (#7)

Twins .243 (#21) .252 (#11)

D-Backs .285 (#2) .263 (#2)

SLG/RISP SLG ALL PA's

Royals .465 (#4) .419 (#9)

Twins .422 (#15) .425 (#6)

D-Backs .485 (#1) .437 (#4)

RBI/RISP RBI ALL PA's

Royals 481 (#3) 622 (#11)

Twins 446 (#10) 647 (#5)

D-Backs 548 (#1) 714 (#1) 

You can't look at RBI's without the amount of opportunities

PA/RISP

Twins 1362 (#7) 5190 (#13)

Royals 1275 (#19) 5145 (#19)

D-Backs 1486 (#1) 5334 (#1) 

There is more complication to throw on this if anyone wants to dive deeper.

On the surface with just a couple of down and dirty stats... to me it looks like the Twins perform pretty much the same RISP compared to how they perform in all situations. Yes there is a slight downtick but using rankings the Twins are doing well in comparison to the other 29 teams. On the other hand The Royals and D-Backs do seem to jump up a bit in clutch situations compared to how they do in all situations.  

 

 

 

   

[DJL44]

50 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

we're not doing a great job stringing together hits to get a run here and run there.

It would be great if they could hit .250 instead of .240 but that's still not going to lead to stringing hits together very often. Your chance of 3 hits in a row goes from 1.4% all the way up to 1.6%.

It doesn't help that Correa is out (.308 average) and he's replaced in the lineup by Julien (.217) or Farmer (.189).

[Brandon]

2 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Exactly - top end relievers are gassed after Monday. Hoping Festa backs up his last start with another gem - Castillo, Thielbar, Blewett,  & Tonkin today in relief.

Blewett practically pitched a starters load last time out. I would think he needs another day.  He might be available for an inning.  But I would hold him back o e more day if I could if I’m the manager.  That leaves Castillo Theilbar and Tonkin in a 9 man bullpen.

[Nate Palmer]

2 hours ago, wabene said:

As reported by Nate Palmer of Twins Daily, "As Baldelli continued to move the chess pieces, next up was Griffin Jax to face the Rays' 2-3-4 batters. Jax very clearly has become the most trusted reliever in the Twins bullpen, and deploying him in the seventh Monday evening was further evidence of that." Lol

Don't give me too much credit. I observed but didn't report it. The closest I get to talking to Rocco is yelling at the TV with the rest of you.  

[laloesch]

As good as SWR has been, you gotta feel for the guy.  How many no decisions (no fault of his own) has he endured this season? 7 or 8?  He should be close to 10 wins by now if the offense backed him better in those starts.  I guess Bert Blyleven holds the record at 20 set in 1979.

[hitterscount]

2 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

It seems the closer role is gradually changing given the metrics these days and managers (at least ours) put the closer (best reliever) out there in the 7th or 8th if the opposition has the top of their lineup out coming up.  I agree with this approach.  How many times do you think we lost a game in the 7th or 8th inning while leaving Nathan in the BP hoping for a 9th inning lead?  I bet if we went back there'd be plenty of those.

I would argue the best teams have a defined closer. I would deviate in a playoff series or must win games…. Not willy nilly because of my predestined data/metric points. Duran has struggled outside of save situations…. I believe the data would back that up.

[LA Vikes Fan]

1 minute ago, hitterscount said:

I would argue the best teams have a defined closer. I would deviate in a playoff series or must win games…. Not willy nilly because of my predestined data/metric points. Duran has struggled outside of save situations…. I believe the data would back that up.

I agree with this, not as a philosophy but because of the people involved. Duran is best in a 9th/10th inning closer or tied situation; not so good outside of that. Jax is more versatile. I would use Jax the way Rocco used him yesterday, to face the meat of the other team's order whether that's in the 6th, 7th or 8th of a close game, or even the 9th inning of a tie game. I wouldn't get myself tied to a Jax in the 8th, Duran in the 9th mold.  

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, hitterscount said:

I would argue the best teams have a defined closer. I would deviate in a playoff series or must win games…. Not willy nilly because of my predestined data/metric points. Duran has struggled outside of save situations…. I believe the data would back that up.

This year he's been better in the 9th. But only has 9.1 total innings in the 7th (1) and 8th (8.1) so it's not exactly a large sample size.

For his career his best OPS against is actually in the 7th inning (.556), but that's still just 12.1 career innings. His 8th inning career OPS against is .734 in 44.2 innings. His 9th inning OPS against is .566 in 95.2 innings. The difference largely coming in the fact he's given up 7 HRs in the 8th and 7 HRs in the 9th. 

In save situations his OPS against is .578 in 360 PAs. In non-save situations his OPS against is .645 in 351 PAs. 

So, he has in fact been better in the 9th and save situations. Not a massive difference in save vs non-save, but a difference for sure. I'd hope that's something Rocco has discussed with him and they're on the same page for his usage and have an idea of what may cause that difference. Is it just the adrenaline or does he do a different warm-up routine, or what?

[tampatwins]

I went to the game last night (yay for living in Tampa) and I’m grateful we got the W, but wow was that much more stress than it needed to be:

My observations: 

SWR did not have it from the second batter onward . Everyone was knocking him all over the park, and he was just leaving everything over the plate and getting shellacked. 
 

the pen still scares me. When the 8th began, I turned to my wife and said “they need at least one insurance run” and thankfully Lee hit his bomb, which was needed. But sands in the 8th made me nervous. 
 

That rays lineup was not their A team or B team. So manifesting festa shows up and shows out tonight, or the twins could be in for some tough sledding. Also hoping Boston continues their slide ans LC/CLE beat each other up 

[JD-TWINS]

4 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

I am thinking possibly the same.

I'm thinking of possibly they need more of a break than to suck it up. Especially Castro, I think a break would produce better production than sucking it up especially when we have quality backups waiting for an opportunity.

You can’t just bring guys up …..roster spots are needed……can’t experiment in September. They needed a RH bat for Margot and that’s what role Helman fills. Everyone would like to see Kiersey at some point - it just isn’t practical IMO, unless Kepler goes to IL.

[JD-TWINS]

3 hours ago, hitterscount said:

I would argue the best teams have a defined closer. I would deviate in a playoff series or must win games…. Not willy nilly because of my predestined data/metric points. Duran has struggled outside of save situations…. I believe the data would back that up.

Typically, when he pitches outside the 9th it’s because the heart of the other Team’s line-up is due up and we need a stop at that point. Better competition and worse the outcomes…..,that’s my slant. I don’t think Duran has some 7th/8th inning phobia or hex.

[Doctor Gast]

52 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

You can’t just bring guys up …..roster spots are needed……can’t experiment in September. They needed a RH bat for Margot and that’s what role Helman fills. Everyone would like to see Kiersey at some point - it just isn’t practical IMO, unless Kepler goes to IL.

Roster spots are valuable, I know. We had an abundance of RH bats, where some had to sit over the season. But with Wallner & Jullien demoted, Kiriloff hurt for a long time and Kepler streaky & sometimes hurt, we've had only  Larnach as a reliable LH bat, to face predominate RHPs. Even SH bats Santana isn't good against RHPs & Castro hits LHPs better, 

When Correa got hurt over a month ago, Castro spent all his time at SS leaving a big void for a LHH CFer. IMO Keirsey should have been called up at the beginning of the season to see how he handled MLB pitchers (IMO by his maturity & what he did at AAA he could handle it) but at least should have been called up at this time. Bousley could have been DFA or Margot pull his groin sooner to open up a roster spot for Keirsey. I agree with you that Keirsey is less needed now but Helman also has no MLB experience & hasn't been on the 40-man. IMO Helman is a poor version of Martin so is not really needed.

This Sept. callup indicates who will be eligible for the postseason. We don't know how Buxton will hold up or when or if Correa comes back. IMO we could use more Keirsey's glove, bat & speed as an option.