Griffin Jax Has a Strong Case as Twins MVP

[Nick Nelson]

Most of Minnesota's key players have wavered in their availability and effectiveness. Griffin Jax has been a steady force out of the bullpen all year long, handling the toughest assignments and keeping the Twins in the win column.

Image courtesy of Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

A bad bullpen that constantly blows late leads can be demoralizing. Twins fans have lived through it in the past, and other franchises have had it much worse over the years. (Paging the Philadelphia Phillies.) When relievers melt down in crunch time, it can erase strong starts and big offensive performances, derailing an otherwise quality team and sending fans into a state of apoplectic anger. We got a small taste courtesy of Jorge Alcala on Sunday, but thankfully those have been somewhat rare. 

On the other hand, when relief pitchers excel, it tends to go largely unnoticed. It's like a great offensive line or a clean NBA reffing performance – they simply did their job, and played their part. But given the alternative scenario, and what happens when they don't get the job done, those consistently good relievers probably deserve a little more appreciation.

With that in mind, we've gotta give Griffin Jax his flowers. This dude has been an indispensable asset for the Twins this year, and yet I suspect many fans wouldn't even put him in their top five when asked to name the team's most valuable player. 

That's reasonable enough. Several Twins players have been worth more WAR this year. Jax has thrown less than 5% of the staff's total innings. There have been plenty of flashier performances: All-Star first halves from Carlos Correa and Willi Castro, an ace-like run from Bailey Ober, Byron Buxton's resurgent campaign, Carlos Santana's clutch theatrics. Even among relievers, Durán has a solid case with his 3.35 ERA and team-leading 2.14 WPA since joining the team.

But all of these players have either missed time with injury or experienced dramatic rises and falls in performance. Jax has been nails all year long, handling high-leverage spots and acing imposing assignments with some of the best stuff and results of any reliever in baseball.

Jax ranks fifth among all major-league relievers in fWAR. He has a 1.82 ERA in 56 appearances, and his 2.33 xERA ranks in the 99th percentile for MLB pitchers. He's striking out 33% of opposing hitters, and holding opponents to a .177/.228/.271 slash line.

These impressive numbers become all the more so when you consider the circumstances and context in which they've been produced. There are two key factors that help make the case for Jax as Minnesota's most valuable individual player so far this season.

He has been a steady force all year in a bullpen that's gone through turbulence.
Durán missed the first month of the season and hasn't quite looked like his usual self since returning. Caleb Thielbar missed the first two weeks and has been far worse. Brock Stewart made it through only that one month before going down, essentially, for the season. At no point has Jax been accompanied by the full complement of his planned high-leverage counterparts, but he's been there to take the ball in important spots at all times.

Unlike last year, when he had a couple of luck-driven downswings, Jax hasn't really gone through a slump. He gave up a single run in three consecutive outings back in early May (all victories for the Twins) but that's the closest thing. Since that stretch he has allowed just five total earned runs in 37 appearances – a 1.23 ERA. 

 

He has routinely carved through the meat of opposing lineups with games on the line.
This is the biggest thing for me. It's somewhat reflected in his WPA (second-highest on the team after Durán, 23rd among MLB relievers) but not entirely, because that metric doesn't account for the quality of opponents being faced. Rocco Baldelli knows Jax is his best reliever and he uses him as such, sending the righty out to take on an opposing lineup's best hitters with slim late-game leads constantly. 

To illustrate this, let's review Jax's eight appearances in the month of August. The Twins have won all but one of these games, contributing to an 11-6 month so far that has enabled them to gain  4 ½ games on Cleveland in the standings, with Jax playing a critical role.

• Aug 2 vs CWS: Jax enters in eighth inning, with Twins ahead 4-2, to face 9-1-2 hitters. Retires them in order.
• Aug 3 vs CWS: Jax enters in eighth inning, with Twins ahead 3-2, facing 9-1-2 hitters. Allows leadoff single and then sets down three straight.
• Aug 5 vs CHC: Jax enters in ninth inning, with Twins ahead 3-0, facing 3-4-5 hitters. Allows one single in a scoreless inning, picks up the save.
• Aug 9 vs CLE: Jax enters in eighth inning, with Twins ahead 4-2, facing 2-3-4 hitters. Retires the side in order.
• Aug 12 vs KC: Jax enters in seventh inning, with Twins ahead 6-3, facing 9-1-2 hitters. Allows leadoff single and then sets down three straight.
• Aug 15 vs TEX: Jax enters in seventh inning, with game tied, facing 2-3-4 hitters. Allows one single in a scoreless inning.
• Aug 16 vs TEX: Jax enters in eighth inning, with Twins ahead 4-3, facing 4-5-6 hitters. Retires them in order.
• Augt 18 vs TEX: Jax enters in ninth inning, with game tied, facing 2-3-4 hitters. Retires them in order.

Jax doesn't really get a break. Whereas Durán might luck his way a soft part of the lineup occasionally, if say the bottom of the order happens to be due up for a save situation, Jax goes against the top and middle of opposing lineups pretty much exclusively. He's facing the guys that the other teams wants up in these spots, and he's putting them down.

Late in spring training, after we'd watched Jax dominate Grapefruit competition with his otherworldly sweeper and also learned that Durán and Thielbar would open on the injured list, I wondered if we would see the Air Force Captain take command in the Twins bullpen, fulfilling his potential as its best member.

He's done exactly that. And as a result, while I'm not sure he'd be at the top of my team MVP ballot here as we near the end of August, he would definitely be pretty close.

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[LambchoP]

Jax has been our best reliever this year by far. He also seems pretty durable the last few years. Not sure how many more years of control we have on him, but building a bullpen around Jax, Duran, Alcala, Sands and maybe Stewart is a good start. If we can get a healthy and productive Topa back and then sign one or two lefties in the off-season to replace Theilbar, we really would have one of the better pens in baseball.

[Karbo]

Relief pitchers really don't get enough credit. Jax would be the primary closer on many, if not most, teams. I read recently that he would like to back to being a starter. He could probably be a 2-3 slot starter, if he could increase his endurance. With the number of starters coming thru the Twins system, i hope they leave him in the pen. Add Varland (who just isn't cutting it as a starter) and they could have a pretty good pen. Now if they can just find another lefty over the winter They could have a pen of Duran, Jax, Alcala, Sands, Varland, Oker, Topa, and add in a decent lefty!

[Dman]

I wish we had a bullpen full of Jax type arms.  In fact I think they should start a Griffan Jax camp and force all the minor league arms to attend. Or at least start drafting arms that get really good velocity along with great secondaries. What he has done to improve is remarkable. He is one of the leagues best relief arms IMO.

That being said it's hard for me to go with MVP for a player that controls one inning.  Is that high leverage inning important? Yes it is.  He draws the toughest assignments and is elite.  Still a starter generally goes through that same lineup multiple times and puts plenty of zero's on the board as well. I would certainly give him MVR ( Most Valuable Reliever).  MVP to me means most valuable player on the team and 1 inning out of 9 is only one ninth of the way to a win. Every out is important and Jax's consistency truly sets him apart I don't want to diminish what he has been able to do. I just don't see MVP as a real option for any reliever.

[TwinsDr2021]

44 minutes ago, LambchoP said:

Jax has been our best reliever this year by far. He also seems pretty durable the last few years. Not sure how many more years of control we have on him, but building a bullpen around Jax, Duran, Alcala, Sands and maybe Stewart is a good start. If we can get a healthy and productive Topa back and then sign one or two lefties in the off-season to replace Theilbar, we really would have one of the better pens in baseball.

Arb1 starts next year, meaning a UFA before the 2028 season.

[Road trip]

Jax has been very good, indeed.

MVP?  Tough to give it to a reliever.

Having said that, the Twins are incredibly balanced and get contributions from a wide variety of players.  The established stars (Buxton and Correa) do just barely lead the team in BWAR, but with both of them currently injured it is entirely possible that the Twins will win 90+ games without having a single player reach 3.5 WAR.  That's amazing.

So, sure, Jax is in the discussion for the team MVP, along with a dozen other players.

[TwinsDr2021]

Ober (and Ryan) have pitched more than 80 innings, even Sands has pitched more innings, so IMO he can't be the MVP.

My MVP as today is Ober, or Santana, but I could listen on Castro.

[August J Gloop]

No reliever has ever been worthy of MVP even the ones who won it. Hernandez 84 over Cal Ripkin? Eck over Kirby? I'm a homer on that one but get out of here.  Not meant to diss Jax in anyway. It's just not possible for a guy who will play in at most 80 innings to be an MVP. 

This Twins Team has no MVP. It's a very greater than the sum of its parts kind of team. And that's been fun.  

[Doctor Gast]

Thanks Nick for putting Captain Griffin Jax in the spotlight which he justly deserves for his command of the Relief Corp. MVP considerations are in order.

[The Mad King]

"Holds" should be counted just as important as Saves for those of us still looking at old time statistics...

[ToddlerHarmon]

15 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Captain Griffin Jax

How have we not been calling him Captain Jax all this time? Order up a round for the other team to drown their sorrows

[Brandon]

Cole Sands has also been pretty consistent all season.  Alcala has too minus the meltdown yesterday.  I think Alcala missed a few weeks being on the DL earlier in the year if I remember correctly.  and Duran has been effective.  That and Jax is what has kept this bullpen effective when it matters most.  

I do agree that Jax has to be in the running for team MVP this year though as he has handled the most highest pressure situations in games throughout the year.  

The team MVP will be a fun debate after the season with so many different player types potentially deserving it.  A reliever (Jax) a Starting Pitcher (Ober) position player (Santana) bench player (Castro), and Buxton, Correa, Lopez, and Miranda could enter the mix depending how the rest of the season plays out.  

[bean5302]

We've got 25% of the season left to go. 40 games still out there waiting to be played so it's too early for MVP discussions, especially for a relief pitcher. All it takes is a couple bad games and Jax's numbers would fall off dramatically; it's the fate of the relief pitcher to play in such a precarious spot. Even if they continued, could a non-closer relief pitcher be justified as a team MVP? Probably not. Willi Castro, Carlos Correa, and Bailey Ober are in the discussion for me, with Jax well behind them.

Of course, Jax is having a tremendous season and is putting himself into a heck of a position for arbitration right now. I projected him at $3MM, but he could easily eclipse that mark by a lot. The arbitration estimator published on Fangraphs suggests Jax would hit the $5MM mark at this pace (on pace for 2.3 fWAR, or 2.8 bWAR). The record for a first year arbitration reliever was Papelbon at $6.5MM back in 2009, and Jax is having a similar season to Papelbon's 2008, but Jax isn't deployed as a closer, and he doesn't have the elite history Papelbon had.

[Greglw3]

I agree on Jax that he’s the Twins best reliever, that he’s elevated the team mightily through his reliable and often brilliant pitching. He’s also impressively elevated his own game to a place I sometimes doubted he would ever get. But here he is.

Without Jax, maybe 5-6 less wins as a guess.

The other player that I would put neck and neck with Jax for Twins MVP is Carlos Santana. He has been the glue, keeping the Twins as a high level team, with highly professional at bats, consistently, and an unbelievable amount of clutch performance ability. And there’s no doubt that he deserves the gold glove and maybe platinum glove for his unreal work at 1B.

I could see the Twins being about 5 games above .500 now without both Jax and Santana.

The guy that was on his way to winning the award for team MVP was Carlos Correa but he’s probably disqualified after missing so much time.

 

[Shaitan]

Maybe it's the subtle point here but maybe nobody is the Twins' MVP? Maybe baseball is a team sport

[mikelink45]

If I was giving it to a pitcher it is Ober.  Ober has given us 134 innings.  He is 12 - 5 (go ahead and hate on wins, but I believe it is wins that get you into the playoffs). And he has 3.49 Era and 1.000 whip.

Jax wins in ERA and Whip and has 54 innings, 80 less than Ober.

Of course I am waiting for Lewis to stay healthy and get MVP.  Right now it would be Santana but I don't like that choice.  I need something more to finish the season. 

[Doctor Wu]

Very good article. Labelling a relief pitcher as the MVP is a tall order, but Jax has certainly been the most consistent and effective relief pitcher for the Twins this season. He looks fearless on the mound. Whatever he did to improve the past two season is certainly working. Keep on doing it!

[Brandon]

11 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

If I was giving it to a pitcher it is Ober.  Ober has given us 134 innings.  He is 12 - 5 (go ahead and hate on wins, but I believe it is wins that get you into the playoffs). And he has 3.49 Era and 1.000 whip.

Jax wins in ERA and Whip and has 54 innings, 80 less than Ober.

Of course I am waiting for Lewis to stay healthy and get MVP.  Right now it would be Santana but I don't like that choice.  I need something more to finish the season. 

But Jax has affected the outcomes of 56 games compared to the 23 games that Ober has pitched in.

[bean5302]

58 minutes ago, Brandon said:

But Jax has affected the outcomes of 56 games compared to the 23 games that Ober has pitched in.

Jax has pitched to 211 batters this year.
Ober's pitched to 529 batters this year.

Every plate appearance has the chance to change the outcome of a game. Unlike Jax, virtually every time Ober takes the mound for his first inning, the game is wide open for a team to win or lose. In many of Jax's appearances, it doesn't matter who is on the mound as the game is already decided.

You can argue back and forth on how they compare, but Ober's contributions throughout the year have meant more to the Twins winning or losing games than Jax's have in a statistical evaluation. There are decent pitchers in the bullpen behind Jax, too.

[mikelink45]

11 hours ago, Brandon said:

But Jax has affected the outcomes of 56 games compared to the 23 games that Ober has pitched in.

Affected yes, but how many RP were used in each of those games?