Minnesota Twins Takeaways from an Inactive Trade Deadline

[P Meyer]

1 hour ago, 4twinsJA said:

Twins are not a player or two away from winning World Series. Sellers market this year, price was too high for players that may have helped Twins. Twins have a good farm system, ranked #3 by Bleacher Report. Twins can't buy their way to playoffs, WS, have to develop their own talent. With that said, likely could have at least got solid LH reliever without mortgaging the future. 

The organization is the one cutting payroll and citing payroll concerns this past year and over the years. Being cheap when you have a history and reputation as cheap, is not going to be taken as an organization committed to winning. You say the Twins aren't a player or two away...ok, but they never are because of how the franchise chooses to operate. In term's of developing their own talent...what top players have they developed recently? Duran (even though they traded for him) is about the closest thing.  

[Rod Carews Birthday]

10 minutes ago, P Meyer said:

The fumbling of the TV deal alone is Pac 12 football level incompetent. That is a pure financial and business failure which has nothing to do with winning games. Doing this while also attacking and alienating your fan base is not a sign of a middle of the pack owner. At my most generous I would state that the Polhad's are comfortable being a middle of the pack MLB team in terms of wins that will at times, push for the playoffs. 

 

 

Which other more lucrative TV deal would you have had them take?  Many things were speculated and dreamed about but when crunch time came, what they got was probably the best financial deal they could get.  
The Comcast debacle isn’t on the Twins. That’s on an entirely different set of billionaires. It sucks. 
As to ranking, i believe that I also had them middle of the pack - better some years and worse others. I just choose to take the long view because as I stated elsewhere, owners are around for a lot longer than relief pitchers and utility infielders.  

[P Meyer]

2 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

Which other more lucrative TV deal would you have had them take?  Many things were speculated and dreamed about but when crunch time came, what they got was probably the best financial deal they could get.  
The Comcast debacle isn’t on the Twins. That’s on an entirely different set of billionaires. It sucks. 
As to ranking, i believe that I also had them middle of the pack - better some years and worse others. I just choose to take the long view because as I stated elsewhere, owners are around for a lot longer than relief pitchers and utility infielders.  

I am certainly not privy to every tv deal the Twins were offered. I don't know your connections. What I can say is that in a time where sports TV rights are inarguably a clear print-fest, any time a team fails to procure one, it is on them. Whether they overplayed their hand, underplayed their hand, struck too soon or too late...those are just excuses that competent business don't generally have to use.

[Doctor Gast]

The Twins is Joe Pohlad's baby. He has shown good faith & interest in the Twins winning by extending & signing Buxton, Correa & Lopez instead of letting them walk. This Bally fiasco has put a bind on Joe's commitment & plans for the Twins. FO basically spent the budget this off-season with very little wiggle room this deadline. Again IDK if Joe has $millions that he'd want to absorb. As a businessman, he needs to be responsible for how the Twins can stay afloat. Spending big money in FA is no longer an option no matter how loud fans cry bloody murder. Any money gained should be invested in extending our own players. The only way for us to improve is by player evaluation & development & trade. We have a surplus of redundant prospects where we easily meet our needs via trade.

I was a big fan of this FO in '19 & I still approve of how they have handled the pitching. In '20, I started to question how they approached things & was immediately harassed by FO supporters. That made me even more determined to scrutinize this FO. Unless a deal is dropped into their lap, I question this FO's ability to initiate one (this year's case in point) as well as question their player's evaluation & development. There are other things I don't like in how this FO operates that hinder this club. I really wish that this FO could change but I doubt it.

This Bally gravy train has come to an end so from now on we need a FO that can maximize in initiating trades, player evaluation & development & forget about throwing big money at FAs especially when we have in-house players who can benefit from the position. IMO all this blame on ownership is a smoke screen to hide the real problem.

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

The Twins is Joe Pohlad's baby. He has shown good faith & interest in the Twins winning by extending & signing Buxton, Correa & Lopez instead of letting them walk. This Bally fiasco has put a bind on Joe's commitment & plans for the Twins. FO basically spent the budget this off-season with very little wiggle room this deadline. Again IDK if Joe has $millions that he'd want to absorb. As a businessman, he needs to be responsible for how the Twins can stay afloat. Spending big money in FA is no longer an option no matter how loud fans cry bloody murder. Any money gained should be invested in extending our own players. The only way for us to improve is by player evaluation & development & trade. We have a surplus of redundant prospects where we easily meet our needs via trade.

I was a big fan of this FO in '19 & I still approve of how they have handled the pitching. In '20, I started to question how they approached things & was immediately harassed by FO supporters. That made me even more determined to scrutinize this FO. Unless a deal is dropped into their lap, I question this FO's ability to initiate one (this year's case in point) as well as question their player's evaluation & development. There are other things I don't like in how this FO operates that hinder this club. I really wish that this FO could change but I doubt it.

This Bally gravy train has come to an end so from now on we need a FO that can maximize in initiating trades, player evaluation & development & forget about throwing big money at FAs especially when we have in-house players who can benefit from the position. IMO all this blame on ownership is a smoke screen to hide the real problem.

Three GMs and decades of how the team is run say otherwise, imo. You want to bet on next year's budget going down?

[P Meyer]

And just to be clear, here is my understanding of the TV deal. The Twins chose a deal without knowing and/or caring of the expiration or issue with the partnership agreement between Diamond Sport's Group and Comcast. Also a deal that prohibited or did not offer in-market streaming options. So they opted for more dollars and less control (security) of how their fans could watch the team. All of this after messaging to the fan base that a slash in payroll was due to an increase in viewership availability. None of this looks competent.

 

If I am missing information, please let me know.

[mickster]

2 hours ago, Dman said:

Not much for top 100 Prospects being traded this year so teams understand the value those type of players have.  Baltimore had the assets to get a big deal done and didn't pull the trigger.  

I think for smaller market teams doing deals for deadline players it's hard to take on a higher salaried player and lose potential cost controlled players in the process.  With Correa, Lopez and Buxton taking up a good chunk of payroll it feels like those players salaries make it harder to fit higher salaries in at the deadline.  Couple that with the up in the air TV revenue and maybe the money just isn't there for the Twins?  Hard to say since we are not privy to the numbers, but the Twins aren't the only ones who operate this way,

This year I wasn't all that interested in around the edges type of players.  If the Twins were going to deal for a top of the rotation arm I could have gotten behind that, but Kikuchi wasn't that type of arm IMO. I would have liked to try harder for a better lefty reliever, but I suppose being burned by the Lopez deal had them second guessing pen arms that cost high end assets.

I am ok with what they did at the deadline.  For this team to go anywhere the guys they have, have to play well to get to the playoffs.  I believe in the players they have and if they get hot we've seen they can have a high end offense. We've seen excellent starting pitching at times and we've seen the pen be dominant in stretches If they can put it all together at the right time I think this team can beat anyone,

We'll see how all these moves shake out the next two months,

According to The Athletic's Dan Hayes, the Twins discussed potential trades with the Chicago White Sox for Erick Fedde as well as the Detroit Tigers for Jack Flaherty. Those talks went nowhere after both teams asked for packages that included one of Brooks Lee, Walker Jenkins or Emmanuel Rodriguez, according to Hayes' reporting.

Not looking to give up one of their high-end prospects for a three-month rental starter, the Twins' front office deemed that asking price a non-starter, Hayes said.

[P Meyer]

5 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Three GMs and decades of how the team is run say otherwise, imo. You want to bet on next year's budget going down?

The narrative that the family worth 3.8 billion in 2015 (per Forbes) in an era where sport's tv/streaming rights are at an all time high needs to pinch pennies to operate is interesting. 

[P Meyer]

4 minutes ago, mickster said:

According to The Athletic's Dan Hayes, the Twins discussed potential trades with the Chicago White Sox for Erick Fedde as well as the Detroit Tigers for Jack Flaherty. Those talks went nowhere after both teams asked for packages that included one of Brooks Lee, Walker Jenkins or Emmanuel Rodriguez, according to Hayes' reporting.

Not looking to give up one of their high-end prospects for a three-month rental starter, the Twins' front office deemed that asking price a non-starter, Hayes said.

And I don't disagree with that assertion. It just is a continuation of bad looks for the franchise. It isn't just the inactivity at the trade deadline. It is the inactivity of the trade deadline along with the slashing of payroll...and the issues with the TV deal...and the increase in ticket prices...and the attacking of the fans. 

[tony&rodney]

3 hours ago, P Meyer said:

It seems like almost any player that would have required payroll additions were not pursued.

Ok. That sounds reasonable. Who exactly are those players? 

I can venture a guess on Tanner Scott, but who was prepared to trade Keaschall, Matthews, Gonzalez, and Doncon? That doesn't sound like a good idea for a rental.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

15 minutes ago, P Meyer said:

And just to be clear, here is my understanding of the TV deal. The Twins chose a deal without knowing and/or caring of the expiration or issue with the partnership agreement between Diamond Sport's Group and Comcast. Also a deal that prohibited or did not offer in-market streaming options. So they opted for more dollars and less control (security) of how their fans could watch the team. All of this after messaging to the fan base that a slash in payroll was due to an increase in viewership availability. None of this looks competent.

 

If I am missing information, please let me know.

Deals expire and are renegotiated all the time. It happens with little guys like Bally and even with big guys like ESPN. The two parties obviously don’t agree on the value of the product.  That’s between Bally and Comcast.  The Twins aren’t at that negotiating table.  
Pure streaming deals are not very lucrative in a midlevel market so they turned back to the best TV deal they could get.  Strategically, development of other options in the past couple of years would have been ideal - but doing so would have cost a fair amount of money rather than making it and the Twins opted not to do that.  

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, 4twinsJA said:

Twins are not a player or two away from winning World Series. Sellers market this year, price was too high for players that may have helped Twins. Twins have a good farm system, ranked #3 by Bleacher Report. Twins can't buy their way to playoffs, WS, have to develop their own talent. With that said, likely could have at least got solid LH reliever without mortgaging the future. 

No Twins team will likely ever meet your criteria for being a World Series competitor. The 1987 Twins team was one of the worst teams to make it to the playoffs. Had they not gone out and gotten Don Baylor, we probably wouldn't be talking about them as World Series Champions.

[twinstalker]

Falvey said he didn't have those financial conversations with ownership because no trade came around.  Does that mean in the last few minutes before the deadline, he'd be calling up Jim and Joe to see whether he could get money for someone that fell into his lap?  What if Joe was on the golf course?

[tony&rodney]

4 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

The clear problem is ownership. We can talk about how the Twins do as a business and all that is interesting, but to me it's ultimately irrelevant. I'm a fan, not a stock analyst or business valuation expert. I want my sports teams to be owned by someone was willing to spend the money to play with the big boys and give their team a chance to be successful on the field. The Vikings have that kind of ownership. I live in LA and I can tell you that all of the teams here have that kind of ownership (now even the Chargers) and would be toast in the marketplace if they didn't. The Twins deserve that and I just don't think they have it. I was hopeful the new guy in charge would be more competitive and more willing to invest but it sure doesn't look like it.

Does the NFL share money and have salary caps? I'm not a football fan. 

Chicago is a big market and Cot's Contracts has the Twins as spending more money than any other team in the AL Central. Baltimore also spends way less money on their player budget than the Twins. Do we expect the Twins to spend at the levels of NY, LA, Philly, Chi, and other large markets. If this is so, and I wish it was true, then Minnesota needs to fill Target Field every game for several years or at least an average of 30,000+. 

I could care less about wealthy sports franchise owners, many of whom inherited their money, but it is a little simple to scream at the windmill of ownership when the Twins have had significant resources compared to their divisional peers.

[bean5302]

20 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

...Pure streaming deals are not very lucrative in a midlevel market so they turned back to the best TV deal they could get...

Either you're purely and totally speculating without much more than a shred of knowledge here or you've got some deep inside information on this. I think I had read the Twins wanted to stream and MLB (Manfred) put the kibosh on it.

50 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

The Twins is Joe Pohlad's baby. He has shown good faith & interest in the Twins winning by extending & signing Buxton, Correa & Lopez instead of letting them walk. This Bally fiasco has put a bind on Joe's commitment & plans for the Twins. FO basically spent the budget this off-season with very little wiggle room this deadline. Again IDK if Joe has $millions that he'd want to absorb. As a businessman, he needs to be responsible for how the Twins can stay afloat. Spending big money in FA is no longer an option no matter how loud fans cry bloody murder. Any money gained should be invested in extending our own players. The only way for us to improve is by player evaluation & development & trade. We have a surplus of redundant prospects where we easily meet our needs via trade.

I was a big fan of this FO in '19 & I still approve of how they have handled the pitching. In '20, I started to question how they approached things & was immediately harassed by FO supporters. That made me even more determined to scrutinize this FO. Unless a deal is dropped into their lap, I question this FO's ability to initiate one (this year's case in point) as well as question their player's evaluation & development. There are other things I don't like in how this FO operates that hinder this club. I really wish that this FO could change but I doubt it.

This Bally gravy train has come to an end so from now on we need a FO that can maximize in initiating trades, player evaluation & development & forget about throwing big money at FAs especially when we have in-house players who can benefit from the position. IMO all this blame on ownership is a smoke screen to hide the real problem.

Here's a link to the front office.
https://www.mlb.com/twins/team/front-office

Chairman - Jim Pohlad (also controlling Owner)
President & CEO - Dave St. Peter
Executive Vice President, Brand Strategy & Growth & Executive Chair - Joe Pohlad.
President, Baseball Operations, Derek Falvey.

Board Members: Chairman, Jim, Bill Pohlad, Bob Pohlad, Joe Pohald, Dave St. Peter.

Joe is not part of the ownership group to the best of my knowledge, which consists of his dad, Bob Pohlad, his two uncles Jim and Bill. Joe is the executive chair and the voice of the franchise. Joe handles the day to day operations and would advise/report to Dave St. Peter and the ownership group (Jim Pohlad). Derek Falvey reports directly to Joe, who dual reports to Dave St. Peter and Jim Pohlad.

The structure and titles in the Twins' organization do not reflect it being "Joe's show"

[bean5302]

42 minutes ago, mickster said:

According to The Athletic's Dan Hayes, the Twins discussed potential trades with the Chicago White Sox for Erick Fedde as well as the Detroit Tigers for Jack Flaherty. Those talks went nowhere after both teams asked for packages that included one of Brooks Lee, Walker Jenkins or Emmanuel Rodriguez, according to Hayes' reporting.

Not looking to give up one of their high-end prospects for a three-month rental starter, the Twins' front office deemed that asking price a non-starter, Hayes said.

I'm sure they did ask for something like that. Apparently, Falvey forgot to keep in touch or something because what Fedde & Flaherty actually went for was dramatically less.

 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

I think overall this is a lot more complicated than most fans are making this out to be.   I do think Falvey and Levine have done a pretty good job,  there have been some missteps, but overall very good outcomes.   I do think they are struggling with the owners, which I will get into in a bit.   I think the Pohlads are feeling the heat,  its why when they got doxxed with their phone number,  their was a pretty strong reaction and Falvey really tried to walk back anything regarding ownership.   My feeling yesterday was this was really the beginning of the end for Falvey and Levine without a new contract.   To me seems to be a very stupid decision by ownership if they do let them walk.  

But lets be clear,  Falvey came from Cleveland where they are more financially constrained than us.  Also the transition of switching from cable contracts to a streaming/local broadcast model  is going to affect every organization.  So unless you are going to a top 7-8 org., I am not sure there will be a significant different,  plus they have built a very nice war chest of prospects and young players.  Going to restart somewhere else with a much shorter leash and a tougher division than the AL Central isn't everything its cracked up to be.  

Ultimately we needed to trade Kepler to take on any pitching trade,  and that went by the wayside when the Yankees pulled the trade on Flahrerty.  I really think it was pretty close to a straight up trade with maybe a slight prospect from our end.  

Ultimately, am I disappointed with ownership.  Yes,  I was hoping for a 1 year reset on salaries,  that we jumped way to high, due to the Correa opportunity.  It appears to be more than that,  but I also think it is a bit out of Ownerships hands as well.  Now they have done a horrible job at PR and framing things and trying to look like they are doing their best to put a competitive foot forward.  They have allowed the framing of this to be the ownership are tightwads.   

I'll be curious to see if new contracts are offered,  if new contracts are accepted,  or if there is a clean break and reset. For all those who have criticized the job Falvey and Levine have done,  it can get much worse.  Lets win this division and then see where everything breaks.  Ultimately winning heals a lot of wounds, and if we win with our players without any big trade,  we have more ammo for trades in the offseason when trades are much more balanced.  

[Linus]

53 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Three GMs and decades of how the team is run say otherwise, imo. You want to bet on next year's budget going down?

This. People can argue this detail and that income stream. Just take a step back and look at the way the franchise has operated throughout their tenure and it becomes clear. They are going to operate the franchise with an eye towards meeting certain fiscal goals and hopefully winning some games along the way. 

[mickster]

12 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I'm sure they did ask for something like that. Apparently, Falvey forgot to keep in touch or something because what Fedde & Flaherty actually went for was dramatically less.

 

True - but now way were the Twins a consideration for the White Sox or Tigers as divisional opponents

[Rod Carews Birthday]

2 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Either you're purely and totally speculating without much more than a shred of knowledge here or you've got some deep inside information on this. I think I had read the Twins wanted to stream and MLB (Manfred) put the kibosh on it.

It’s neither actually, but I can do the math on it. 

Let’s say that your goal is make $40M.  That would roughly replace the TV deal they had/have.  I don’t know what the outlay by the team would be for that, but I’m guessing between $10M and $20M between on air talent, staffing, and physical costs, and I might be WAY low.  So, you need to gross an absolute minimum of $50M to do that.  That’s without taking startup costs like equipment, etc. into consideration. 

If you assume that people would be willing to pay $100 or more for a season of streaming Twins games, that means that they would need to have 500,000 subscribers AND they would need to hope that it wouldn’t cut into their gate attendance too much. (Would people attend more often or less often if they can watch it through streaming?  I’m not sure actually).  That is too big of a number of fans that would care enough to pay for streaming to make it work.  The big problem is that in order to make it work you need a larger fan base or more fan bases.  So. . . the NFL is off the table as is likely U of M with the NCAA involved.  Maybe the Timberwolves, assuming that they aren’t in the middle of a deal themselves.  Maybe the Wild or the Loons.  Now you are down to pretty small fan bases (Minnesota State? St. Thomas?) that really don’t help you much, and you increase your costs by needing to cover more events.  

I believe MLB strongly inferred that the Twins should wait a year so that the league could have its own streaming package in place.   I’m not sure if that was a suggestion or a mandate.  We’ll see if that all happens or not.  I do know that the league has a lot more economies of scale to make more happen, but who knows.   I personally would love streaming as I live a long ways away from Target Field and have to catch the Twins on the road, but I don’t think it works unless it is paired with something that is more lucrative monetarily.  

[TheLeviathan]

The Pohlads pinching pennies was not going to make a huge difference yesterday.  The best available talent was in our own division, so when you take that out of the equation you're left with some real dregs.  The truth is that there just wasn't much worth acquiring yesterday.

That said....the penny pinching has put us in this position because there was talent worth adding this offseason.  They made terrible broadcasting decisions and then, due to their own mismanagement, used that to justify sitting on their hands when it mattered and there were options. That's what remains worthy of criticism.

None of that is the fault of anyone but the Pohlads.

[nicksaviking]

4 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Which specific players that were traded did the Twins not go after due to financial constraints? 

I was blown away by the sheer quantity of players traded yesterday, but bored with the quality. Many of the best players moved were DFA candidates just last year.

Still, I'd love to know who was on Correa's list.

I'm still more than OK not letting ownership off the hook. 

[tony&rodney]

7 minutes ago, Linus said:

This. People can argue this detail and that income stream. Just take a step back and look at the way the franchise has operated throughout their tenure and it becomes clear. They are going to operate the franchise with an eye towards meeting certain fiscal goals and hopefully winning some games along the way. 

So is this an argument that the Twins should model their finances after the Cleveland club?

[tony&rodney]

1 minute ago, nicksaviking said:

I was blown away by the sheer quantity of players traded yesterday, but bored with the quality. Many of the best players moved were DFA candidates just last year.

Me too. It seems like some teams made numerous changes just to change the names on the back of the uniforms. I wonder how the players are affected by all of this change that doesn't really change anything?

The last two trade deadlines have been mostly a wash. Why do people get so agitated?

[nicksaviking]

12 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Me too. It seems like some teams made numerous changes just to change the names on the back of the uniforms. I wonder how the players are affected by all of this change that doesn't really change anything?

The last two trade deadlines have been mostly a wash. Why do people get so agitated?

I get it, it's like watching everyone else open presents on Christmas while you get nothing. It's not fair, the fans and players did get screwed over. I personally didn't like most of the players traded, and I don't think any of them really would have put the Twins over the top to win a championship, but plenty of fans still want to see a better playoff push, even if it is likely to be another early round exit.

And that's a fair desire by those fans too. (and a more rational take than my borderline sociopathic win-it-all-or-go-jump-in-a-lake demands) 

[Doctor Gast]

I really don't think there were really much for SPs available to really help us. Kichuchi isn't that good & he was pretty expensive. Let's say that there was a SP out there that had a higher salary than what the Twins wanted to pay, why not offer more prospect capital & have the team pay down the salary? If there's a will there's a way.

 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

8 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I really don't think there were really much for SPs available to really help us. Kichuchi isn't that good & he was pretty expensive. Let's say that there was a SP out there that had a higher salary than what the Twins wanted to pay, why not offer more prospect capital & have the team pay down the salary? If there's a will there's a way.

 

The quality of pitching was not good and the cost was high,  and we needed to shed salary to take on a pitching contract.  That is a pretty tough scenario.  I do think we could have renegotiated with Flaherty and the high asking prices wouldn't have been as high as was earlier.  However I am not sure this management would have been willing to take another risk on player that is dealing with a significant injury (bad back,  has had 2 injections in a month).  As I said in the run up we are likely better hanging on to what we have, and we seem to have enough depth of pitchers and hitters, to handle injuries as they come.  I really hope we start to get healthy.  

[tony&rodney]

9 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I really don't think there were really much for SPs available to really help us. Kichuchi isn't that good & he was pretty expensive. Let's say that there was a SP out there that had a higher salary than what the Twins wanted to pay, why not offer more prospect capital & have the team pay down the salary? If there's a will there's a way.

 

I agree but there wasn't that animal in the woods this year.

I mean, the Twins tried with the Tyler Mahle, Jorge Lopez, and Fulmer trades a couple of years ago. I lauded their attempt then because it was something but before the deadline I was totally down on Mahle simply because I didn't like the way he pitched. I also didn't like Lopez because as a late inning guy he was way too volatile. It could have worked though. 

[CharlieDee]

Because the Pohlads are strapped for money and are unable to add to the team when the window is open, I'd like to suggest they sell the team.  Please,please sell the team. Your financial worries will be over and you can be happy!

[KirbyDome89]

2 hours ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

Which other more lucrative TV deal would you have had them take?  Many things were speculated and dreamed about but when crunch time came, what they got was probably the best financial deal they could get.  
The Comcast debacle isn’t on the Twins. That’s on an entirely different set of billionaires. It sucks. 
As to ranking, i believe that I also had them middle of the pack - better some years and worse others. I just choose to take the long view because as I stated elsewhere, owners are around for a lot longer than relief pitchers and utility infielders.  

Sure, streaming *potentially* wouldn't have been as lucrative, but we're talking about literal loose change for these ***holes making fiscal decisions. They talked up a streaming option during the offseason and the second a few more dollars were dangled in front of their faces they jumped back in bed with a company going bankrupt. It's asinine to think that Bally being pulled from Comcast's packages was some sort of shocking or unforeseen outcome. I mean c'mon. If you actually want to argue that Twins business gurus who negotiated that deal shouldn't be held accountable you're simply endorsing incompetence.