These 3 Resurgent Twins Forced Their Way Right Back Into the Team's Plans

[Nick Nelson]

Coming into this season, it appeared that Cole Sands, Trevor Larnach and Simeon Woods Richardson were all on the verge of potentially fizzling out from the Twins organization. But their resurgent seasons have cemented them as key parts of the team's present, and future.

Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson and Matt Blewett – USA TODAY Sports

Baseball is a sport filled with rises and falls. That's a big part of what makes it so enjoyable to follow. It's a game of ebbs and flows, of failure and redemption. While it's tough to watch players go through struggles and downswings (Edouard Julien, hello), we're constantly being reminded of why not to give up on them. 

On this year's Twins team, three key contributors serve as banner examples: outfielder Trevor Larnach, starter Simeon Woods Richardson and reliever Cole Sands.

In spring training, none of these three were expected to make the team. Sands did make the Twins bullpen – somewhat surprisingly after he failed to impress last year – but seemingly only to provide a multi-inning arm in low leverage. Woods Richardson was sent back in Triple-A, where he posted an ugly 4.94 ERA in 2023. So was Larnach, who was left off the playoff roster following another injury-plagued, underwhelming season.

Bobby Nightengale of the Star Tribune wrote last month that Larnach "felt he was at a make-or-break point in his career during the offseason," and that's a sentiment that was likely shared by both pitchers. Sands, who turned 27 a week ago, had failed to find meaningful traction or success in the big leagues, even after shifting to a full-time relief role. Woods Richardson is still only 23, but his prospect luster had faded away, and he appeared to be falling out of the long-term rotation picture. 

"There is nothing more frustrating than reaching your dream and seeing it slip away and not knowing why." Larnach told Nightengale. All three faced this frustration to some degree. But only through tribulation can one triumph, making their resurgent campaigns all the more sweet.

The Twins are in playoff position and on a 90-win pace, with each of these three playing unexpectedly critical roles. Larnach's good-not-great production understates the premium quality of his at-bats and contact, which have earned him consistent placements in the No. 2 or 3 spots in order against right-handed pitchers. Sands has emerged as a top setup man alongside Griffin Jax in the bullpen, and he's dominating with a 3.38 ERA, 2.75 FIP and 7.5 K/BB ratio. Woods Richardson has been a lifesaver for the Twins rotation, posting a 3.27 ERA in 17 starts, including a shutdown performance against the Phillies on Tuesday night.

 

These particular emergences have been much needed for the Twins, given how things have played out for the team. Larnach's impact left-handed bat is offsetting the lack of impact from Julien and Alex Kirilloff. (Even Max Kepler, whose power has totally tailed off.) Sands has been a vital fixture in the bullpen with one of Jhoan Durán or Brock Stewart sidelined throughout the first half. Woods Richardson replaced Louie Varland, who went 0-4 with a 7.65 ERA to open the season, and has led the Twins to a 12-5 record in his turns since. 

By coming through as they have this season, all three players have written themselves firmly into the team's future plans – something that was far from the case just a few months ago. Cost-controlled young starting pitching is gold, making Woods Richardson a valuable commodity, even if you view his upside more as mid/back of rotation as opposed to the front. Sands can contribute to a level of continuity in the relief corps, where he, Jax, Durán and Stewart are all under team control for at least three more years. 

Larnach is now locked into the heart of the lineup, and we still haven't seen him fully unleash – his wOBA is 20 points lower than his xwOBA. Instances like his first at-bat on Tuesday night, when Larnach crushed a 104-MPH drive to center (expected batting average: .860) only for it to find a glove, have been common. His best is yet to come if he keeps swinging the way he has. 

 

Hey, things can change. As we can see. But these are talented ballplayers who are finally seeing it come together after enduring setbacks and hardship, and right now all of their arrows are all pointing up. The implications for the future of the Twins, especially as the front office faces apparent financial limitations going forward, could be massive.

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[mikelink45]

Good article - I add that Castro has exceeded expectations again and has been a key to success.  I would also add Miranda who was close to not getting on the team this year and had his own injury and down period only to rise up to be an even more important bat than Larnach.

By the tone of this article do we still look at Julien and Kiriloff to rise up and succeed again?

[Karbo]

After them there is the problem with AK. Will he ever turn into the hitter he was projected to be or will he even be with the club next year?

[dxpavelka]

5 minutes ago, Karbo said:

After them there is the problem with AK. Will he ever turn into the hitter he was projected to be or will he even be with the club next year?

Would I be wrong to settle for him just being on the field for a hundred games in any given season?

 

[dxpavelka]

HOPEFUL that Wood-Richardson continues to grow enough to be a guy we can trust to start in the middle of a post-season series. 

 

[dxpavelka]

Slightly concerned that we might have a lot of guys regress to the previously established mean next year.  Hope not but hope is not a good strategy.

 

[tony&rodney]

The thing that makes me optimistic about each of these three is that they have pushed through the areas that limited their success and have seemingly turned the corner. Sands and Woods Richardson are controlling the at bats from the mound and Larnach seems much more comfortable versus breaking balls than last year. The two pitchers are definitely trending way up and Larnach has made adjustments.

While stars drive success, every team needs players like these three to win games on a consistent basis. 

Good article.

[gman]

Part of the problem with many seems to be that they are not cognizant of just how an injury is affecting their performance. Year after year with some like Buxton, Lewis, Kirilloff etc. Also some young players see long term players like Buxton and perhaps Correa now try to play through injuries and they think they need to also. Consequently for years we are not seeing just how good or bad someone truly could be.

[twinzcynic]

I would add Miranda to this list. Many had written him off after the twinz wanted him to slim down which subsequently led to a terrible year last year. This year he's looking much more like his rookie self and it's fun to watch.

[arby58]

1 hour ago, Karbo said:

After them there is the problem with AK. Will he ever turn into the hitter he was projected to be or will he even be with the club next year?

Injuries have been the story here. They have derailed many a promising MLB career. My guess is the Twins ride with him a bit longer and see if he can overcome the injury bug.

[arby58]

1 hour ago, dxpavelka said:

HOPEFUL that Wood-Richardson continues to grow enough to be a guy we can trust to start in the middle of a post-season series. 

 

SWR continues to perform - and against good opposition. His outing last night against the Phillies was rock solid. That's a great hitting ballclub. He handled Schwarber, Turner, and Harper to the tune of 1 for 8, three times through the lineup. The OPS for those three are .795, .911, and .960 respectively.

[Patzky]

1 hour ago, dxpavelka said:

Slightly concerned that we might have a lot of guys regress to the previously established mean next year.  Hope not but hope is not a good strategy.

 

This year has shown us that that is always a possibility. Heck, in the off-season Twins territory was comfortable if not delighted with a Kirilloff Julien Correa Lewis infield and Kepler Buxton Wallner in the outfield. Most of this crew has been ineffective or hurt for big parts of the year, yet here we are ten games over .500. 

I love the idea but if we go into 2024 depending on a Larnach Wallner Buxton outfield.. there's a wide range of possibile outcomes there.

[LambchoP]

SWR has been a lifesaver in the rotation for us. Everyone seems to be waiting for him to fall apart but I think he's got middle of the rotation type stuff. I just hope his success doesn't keep us from acquiring a TOR starter at the deadline or in the off-season. Miranda should be on this list too. If he can stay healthy and produce like he has this year, I see an all-star game in his future. Just curious where he'll play with Lewis at third, Correa at SS and Lee at 2nd. Will they try him at 1st to keep his bat in the lineup? He's too young to be marked as a DH only....

[arby58]

1 hour ago, Patzky said:

This year has shown us that that is always a possibility. Heck, in the off-season Twins territory was comfortable if not delighted with a Kirilloff Julien Correa Lewis infield and Kepler Buxton Wallner in the outfield. Most of this crew has been ineffective or hurt for big parts of the year, yet here we are ten games over .500. 

I love the idea but if we go into 2024 depending on a Larnach Wallner Buxton outfield.. there's a wide range of possibile outcomes there.

It does demonstrate the need for depth. Last year, the Yankees weren't even close to sniffing the play-offs, almost completely because of injuries. I know you said 'most of this crew' but still want to chime in that the 'big two' (Buxton, Correa) that the Twins hoped would recover mostly have. We do have to hope that Correa recovers from his current bout of plantar fasciitis, of course.

[LA Vikes Fan]

1 hour ago, arby58 said:

SWR continues to perform - and against good opposition. His outing last night against the Phillies was rock solid. That's a great hitting ballclub. He handled Schwarber, Turner, and Harper to the tune of 1 for 8, three times through the lineup. The OPS for those three are .795, .911, and .960 respectively.

SWR may be better than we thought. I was happy because he was convincing me he might be a good #4 or #5 starter. Now I'm wondering if he has a #2 or #3 kind of ceiling. Having him with Lopez, Ober, and Ryan all controlled for the next 3-4 years gives us a great base for the rotation.  Now, if only we could trade for a playoff type guy . . . Nathan Evoldi or Tyler Anderson anyone?

[Doctor Gast]

2 hours ago, gman said:

Part of the problem with many seems to be that they are not cognizant of just how an injury is affecting their performance. Year after year with some like Buxton, Lewis, Kirilloff etc. Also some young players see long term players like Buxton and perhaps Correa now try to play through injuries and they think they need to also. Consequently for years we are not seeing just how good or bad someone truly could be.

Buxton can be streaky when healthy but you look at Lewis, Kiriloff & Correa when healthy they are the best hitters on the team when they aren't healthy they slump. There's a direct correlation. So I'm not worried about Kiriloff's ability to hit. I'm more concerned about keeping him healthy now that those structural injuries have passed. So put Kiriloff at 1B/ DH & keep him there until the soft-tissue vulnerability has passed so we can enjoy his hitting.

[arby58]

14 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

SWR may be better than we thought. I was happy because he was convincing me he might be a good #4 or #5 starter. Now I'm wondering if he has a #2 or #3 kind of ceiling. Having him with Lopez, Ober, and Ryan all controlled for the next 3-4 years gives us a great base for the rotation.  

His uptick in velocity is certainly part of the improvement. Much as we all like to find fault in the Twins player development from time to time, their ability to add MPH in pitcher development is impressive.

[Doctor Gast]

I never doubted SWR ability to be a MLB SP. Yet I was amazed last night at how he surpassed my expectations. SWR is constantly changing & making adjustments, it's hard for the league to catch up to him. Sands, I saw enough before to be hopeful. Larnach? I had my doubts that he'd be able to reset his approach but he did. Now I see Walner changing & being a much better fielder to boot. This gives me hope that Julien can reset his approach also. We absolutely need all our LH hitters to step up to create the line-up that strikes fear in RHPs.

[Patzky]

2 hours ago, arby58 said:

SWR continues to perform - and against good opposition. His outing last night against the Phillies was rock solid. That's a great hitting ballclub. He handled Schwarber, Turner, and Harper to the tune of 1 for 8, three times through the lineup. The OPS for those three are .795, .911, and .960 respectively.

He's been more consistent than Ryan or Pablo too, granted teams don't have the body of data against SWR that they have accumulated against the other two. 12-5 in games he starts.. like they always say afterward, 'give the team a chance to win..'

[ashbury]

You mentioned Cole Sands in reference to low leverage, which immediately reminded me of USAFChief's principle that in modern bullpen usage there are no low-leverage arms.  However, I checked the numbers, and if there is a poster child for correct usage, Sands is it.

baseball-reference.com provides a "Leverage" category in its splits page (for team or for player).  By definition, a lot of innings by starting pitchers qualify as low leverage and I am not going to go into that.  But if you rank Twins pitchers by batters faced (PA) in low leverage situations, Sands is behind only Ryan/Lopez/Ober/Paddack. When the game is out of hand or safely put away, Sands is the arm Rocco prefers to go to. (Funderburk and Jay Jackson rank highly too, and now they are gone.)

With medium or high leverage, Sands drops behind Duran/Jax/Alcala in batters faced.

And the clincher for me is this: when you slice and dice the numbers for Sands, the pattern of results is stark:
Low Leverage: 127 PA, .497 OPS
Medium Leverage: 29 PA, .661 OPS
High Leverage: 30 PA, .798 OPS

Yes, this is Small Sample Size.  I would not stake a lot on this.  But the trend is consistent with Sands being used correctly.  .798 OPS is losing baseball (from the pitcher's perspective).

I am happy for Sands that he is putting together a nice season.  But I don't trust him in an important role and I would not call him a top setup man.  It seems that Rocco prefers to avoid such a role for Sands except when the bullpen is otherwise depleted.

[Jeff K]

3 hours ago, arby58 said:

SWR continues to perform - and against good opposition. His outing last night against the Phillies was rock solid. That's a great hitting ballclub. He handled Schwarber, Turner, and Harper to the tune of 1 for 8, three times through the lineup. The OPS for those three are .795, .911, and .960 respectively.

I'd say SWR has "graduated" to our 4th starter.  Not bad, when he was the 6th or 7th starter in spring training.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

4 hours ago, twinzcynic said:

I would add Miranda to this list. Many had written him off after the twinz wanted him to slim down which subsequently led to a terrible year last year. This year he's looking much more like his rookie self and it's fun to watch.

Where did you hear they told him to slim down? He was dealing with a shoulder injury for all of last year and got surgery for it at the end of the year - that's why he struggled last year. 

[wabene]

2 hours ago, ashbury said:

You mentioned Cole Sands in reference to low leverage, which immediately reminded me of USAFChief's principle that in modern bullpen usage there are no low-leverage arms.  However, I checked the numbers, and if there is a poster child for correct usage, Sands is it.

baseball-reference.com provides a "Leverage" category in its splits page (for team or for player).  By definition, a lot of innings by starting pitchers qualify as low leverage and I am not going to go into that.  But if you rank Twins pitchers by batters faced (PA) in low leverage situations, Sands is behind only Ryan/Lopez/Ober/Paddack. When the game is out of hand or safely put away, Sands is the arm Rocco prefers to go to. (Funderburk and Jay Jackson rank highly too, and now they are gone.)

With medium or high leverage, Sands drops behind Duran/Jax/Alcala in batters faced.

And the clincher for me is this: when you slice and dice the numbers for Sands, the pattern of results is stark:
Low Leverage: 127 PA, .497 OPS
Medium Leverage: 29 PA, .661 OPS
High Leverage: 30 PA, .798 OPS

Yes, this is Small Sample Size.  I would not stake a lot on this.  But the trend is consistent with Sands being used correctly.  .798 OPS is losing baseball (from the pitcher's perspective).

I am happy for Sands that he is putting together a nice season.  But I don't trust him in an important role and I would not call him a top setup man.  It seems that Rocco prefers to avoid such a role except when the bullpen is otherwise depleted.

Excellent post, I thought the article overstated Sand's contributions. His numbers look good but he has allowed many inherited runners to score, which is not reflected by the numbers. 

With that being said he has been better and is a valuable piece. I hope he keeps improving.

[ashbury]

46 minutes ago, wabene said:

but he has allowed many inherited runners to score, which is not reflected by the numbers.

b-r.com keeps track of that for us too:
  https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIN/2024-pitching.shtml#all_players_reliever_pitching

Will it surprise you to know that Thielbar leads the team in percentage of runners who score, at 57%?  (Majors-wide it's 33%. and no one in the Twins bullpen is below this figure except Alcala and Stewart.) 

Sands has had only 9 runners on base when he's come in, and allowed 4 to score, so that's not a good percentage but in sheer numbers it doesn't make up very much of his resume one way or the other, except to reinforce my belief that he's okay but nothing special this year; if they replaced him it would likely be with someone worse.  And he could improve.  Sure.  Why not.

Thanks for the compliment.

[wabene]

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

b-r.com keeps track of that for us too:
  https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIN/2024-pitching.shtml#all_players_reliever_pitching

Will it surprise you to know that Thielbar leads the team in percentage of runners who score, at 57%?  (Majors-wide it's 33%. and no one in the Twins bullpen is below this figure except Alcala and Stewart.) 

Sands has had only 9 runners on base when he's come in, and allowed 4 to score, so that's not a good percentage but in sheer numbers it doesn't make up very much of his resume one way or the other, except to reinforce my belief that he's okay but nothing special this year; if they replaced him it would likely be with someone worse.  And he could improve.  Sure.  Why not.

Thanks for the compliment.

Interesting. That does not surprise me about Thielbar this year, but that was his specialty at his best. In the past. The Twins really miss that this year as your numbers suggest. Hopefully Alcala can keep it up and Stewart can finish out healthy. Limiting runs in the set up role takes pressure off the closers and maybe helps you avoid the Manfred Man and crushing defeats, lol 

[arby58]

3 hours ago, ashbury said:

b-r.com keeps track of that for us too:
  https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIN/2024-pitching.shtml#all_players_reliever_pitching

Will it surprise you to know that Thielbar leads the team in percentage of runners who score, at 57%?  (Majors-wide it's 33%. and no one in the Twins bullpen is below this figure except Alcala and Stewart.) 

Sands has had only 9 runners on base when he's come in, and allowed 4 to score, so that's not a good percentage but in sheer numbers it doesn't make up very much of his resume one way or the other, except to reinforce my belief that he's okay but nothing special this year; if they replaced him it would likely be with someone worse.  And he could improve.  Sure.  Why not.

Thanks for the compliment.

His ERA iis pretty good, so it suggests that if you let him start an inning clean he does pretty well. He's definitely earned his way into regular use.

[dxpavelka]

14 hours ago, arby58 said:

SWR continues to perform - and against good opposition. His outing last night against the Phillies was rock solid. That's a great hitting ballclub. He handled Schwarber, Turner, and Harper to the tune of 1 for 8, three times through the lineup. The OPS for those three are .795, .911, and .960 respectively.

I like the kid.  A lot.  But if we trusted him to start Game 4 of a playoff series we would probably show that by being far less interested in trading for SP.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Cole Sands success has to be taken with a grain of salt.  The year-to-year inconsistency of RP is well documented.

SWR provides reason for optimism.  As a 3/4 starter long term, he could provide rotation stability that every team needs in those rotation slots.

Larnach is a an interesting case.  Has he truly finally figured it out or is he just having a nice stretch. This will be an interesting offseason for the Twins OF.  Do they attempt to roll the dice with Larnach/Wallner/Kiriloff/Martin around Buxton or do they try to bring Kepler back to provide some stability.  Larnach's rest of the season may be the biggest impact on Kepler's potential future as a Twin.

[tony&rodney]

11 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Cole Sands success has to be taken with a grain of salt.  The year-to-year inconsistency of RP is well documented.

SWR provides reason for optimism.  As a 3/4 starter long term, he could provide rotation stability that every team needs in those rotation slots.

Larnach is a an interesting case.  Has he truly finally figured it out or is he just having a nice stretch. This will be an interesting offseason for the Twins OF.  Do they attempt to roll the dice with Larnach/Wallner/Kiriloff/Martin around Buxton or do they try to bring Kepler back to provide some stability.  Larnach's rest of the season may be the biggest impact on Kepler's potential future as a Twin.

Sands does need to show he can do it again next season but he looks pretty solid right now. Woods Richardson seems be getting comfortable with his pitches and his body type holds promise of sustained production.

Next year is ways off but you can be pretty certain that Max Kepler will no longer be playing for the Twins. There will be some inexperienced players brought in and a veteran signing similar to Margot. We don't need to worry about that now though. Let us all hope that Larnach goes on a two month plus terror and that Wallner hits with some consistency.

 

[Rosterman]

Sands lucked onto the roster due to injuries fer sure.

And Miranda could've been jettisoned after last summer. But he wasn't. Makes us hope that another opportunity will still exist for Julien or Kirilloff to shine again, but who knows.

Woods Richardson is still a youngster  and has been holding his own. That recent start agaisnt the Phillies was a gem. So he is showing that he wants to stay in he majors.