Minnesota Could Save a Blue Jays Starter

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

20 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

No on those 3. Gausman and Bassitt would be great but I just don't see the Twins paying the prospect price AND taking on a $20m plus contract. Kikuchi is interesting but uninspiring and is only a rental. 

I have a 2 word answer on what SP the Twins should target- Tyler Anderson of the Angels. Classic crafty LH that needs a good D behind him, pitching very well this year. Good in 2022 in front of a strong Dodger defense, not so great in 2023 in front of a bad Angels defense that is better this year since they found a SS. $13m a year contract through 2025. Angels need OF bats in the worst way, might take a package centered around Larnach and a decent but not top 20 minor league prospect or a better hitting prospect (10-20) plus Keirsey. I like Larnach but he and Wallner are a little redundant and we are going to need an OF spot for Castro when Lewis returns since Lee will probably move to 2B, so we should at least think about trading one of them. I think Wallner has the higher ceiling (and lower floor).    

While we're at it, we should be talking to the Angels about Carlos Estevez and at least kicking the tires on Luis Rengifo, Both are available and neither should cost a top 10 prospect. 

Tyler Anderson looks like smoke and mirrors to me. He doesn't get hit very hard, but he also doesn't strike anyone out and walks too many, gives up too many flyballs (nearly as often as Joe Ryan).

Predictive ERA estimators pretty much all have his ERA up in the 4.5-5.2 range. Seems ready to blow up after being traded, I think. 

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

I actually think Kikuchi might be the best of the three. He has the best K% and BB%, the two things I think are the biggest contributors to shutting down good offenses, which is what you'll see in the post season. The counting stats may keep his price down, meanwhile FIP says he's the one to target regardless of cost.

I think his FIP looks a little shinier than it should because when he gives up contact it's hard contact. Bottom 10th percentile in exit velocity & hard hit rate and nearly there in barrel rate too. 

I agree he's definitely got the foundation to be a solid starter with the K% & BB%, but they'd have to figure out how to prevent more of the hard contact. Would definitely be an intriguing get if they can buy low on him. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

17 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Twins are one of two teams with five top 100 prospects. They have one of the top third systems in the game, and have four top 100 picks in this year's draft. I didn't think the industry agrees with you in the condition of the farm. 

The major league team is easily one of the 8 best teams in all of baseball, with Lewis mostly hurt and Lopez struggling. It needs a really good LH reliever and elite starter. If you aren't trading for them last year or this year, you aren't ever doing so. 

I'll only add, IF Stewart and Topa can come back and be healthy, a lefty specific reliever is less of a need in my opinion. Frankly, Paddack and Varland and Festa may all be options come playoff wise for the bullpen.

A starter is still a need though in my opinion for sure. Hopefully one you can feel comfortable starting a playoff game.

[Mike Sixel]

4 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I'll only add, IF Stewart and Topa can come back and be healthy, a lefty specific reliever is less of a need in my opinion. Frankly, Paddack and Varland and Festa may all be options come playoff wise for the bullpen.

A starter is still a need though in my opinion for sure. Hopefully one you can feel comfortable starting a playoff game.

I'm not confident about Stewart, alas. They seem very reluctant to move varland, as they were with Jax. I'd move him for sure, and that might take care of the bullpen. 

There is no cheap, great, starter out there, not for a team bent on cutting payroll. I still think if they want to add a starter, they'll be forced to deal Kepler to offset the cost. 

[DFlow]

None.

Kikuchi is not a playoff starting pitcher (backed by statcast and last years usage against us).

Bassitt is a safe playoff #4 pitcher but we can’t do that salary next year.

Gausmann would be way too much of a gamble for the Twins as his statcast is horrific and the contract is not realistic for the Twins.

The Twins will only do expiring or a early/pre-arb guy based on next years cash crunch. 

[nicksaviking]

10 minutes ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

I think his FIP looks a little shinier than it should because when he gives up contact it's hard contact. Bottom 10th percentile in exit velocity & hard hit rate and nearly there in barrel rate too. 

I agree he's definitely got the foundation to be a solid starter with the K% & BB%, but they'd have to figure out how to prevent more of the hard contact. Would definitely be an intriguing get if they can buy low on him. 

He's had a HR problem in the past, like Joe Ryan. They both seem to be benefitting from this year's suppressed offense. I'm more than happy to take advantage of current climate while using past results to lower his cost. Then when they tweak the game next year to heat up the bats, you just don't re-sign him.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

46 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Twins are one of two teams with five top 100 prospects. They have one of the top third systems in the game, and have four top 100 picks in this year's draft. I didn't think the industry agrees with you in the condition of the farm. 

The major league team is easily one of the 8 best teams in all of baseball, with Lewis mostly hurt and Lopez struggling. It needs a really good LH reliever and elite starter. If you aren't trading for them last year or this year, you aren't ever doing so. 

Could be a perfect storm. The Yankees might right the ship, but they might not. The Orioles, as talented as they are, have less of a post-season track record than this current Twins' team. Does anyone think the Twins couldn't beat Cleveland, Boston, Seattle, or Houston in October? If Lewis, Correa and Buxton are healthy, there's definitely a path to the World Series. If the Pohlad's don't go all-in at this year's deadline, they're missing a golden opportunity. And, by all-in, I don't mean the likes of Mahle, Lopez, and Fullmer. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

30 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm not confident about Stewart, alas. They seem very reluctant to move varland, as they were with Jax. I'd move him for sure, and that might take care of the bullpen. 

There is no cheap, great, starter out there, not for a team bent on cutting payroll. I still think if they want to add a starter, they'll be forced to deal Kepler to offset the cost. 

I mean, I don't know that I see Varland moving to the pen much before October, but FOR October,  he was really good in that role last year. Why not right?

 

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

3 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

He's had a HR problem in the past, like Joe Ryan. They both seem to be benefitting from this year's suppressed offense. I'm more than happy to take advantage of current climate while using past results to lower his cost. Then when they tweak the game next year to heat up the bats, you just don't re-sign him.

I think I saw something recently that the league is already adjusting, but it could maybe just be the warmer weather effect.

Also wow Kikuchi has had a HR/FB% over 15% in each of the previous 3 seasons, and he's 'down' to 12.5% this year. 

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I mean, I don't know that I see Varland moving to the pen much before October, but FOR October,  he was really good in that role last year. Why not right?

 

He's not a starter. Make him a RP in the regular season so he has experience in tight situations. They refused to move Jax for years on the tiny chance he was a starter. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

6 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

He's not a starter. Make him a RP in the regular season so he has experience in tight situations. They refused to move Jax for years on the tiny chance he was a starter. 

I agree with you. I'm fine keeping him starting even through August in case of injury and a need, but come September I am all about moving him into the bullpen again. 

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

Unless a major injury occurs between now and the deadline, I just don't really understand what the Twins would get out of trading for a #3-5 starter. None of the Toronto pitchers (or basically anyone that will be on the market besides Crochet) are good enough to slot above Pablo/Ryan/Ober in the postseason

There's the possibility they play Kansas City in the playoffs and that is a bad matchup for Ober. Pablo Lopez is not having a great season overall. There is room for another starter in the rotation.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

1 minute ago, DJL44 said:

There's the possibility they play Kansas City in the playoffs and that is a bad matchup for Ober. Pablo Lopez is not having a great season overall. There is room for another starter in the rotation.

KC is a bad matchup for any similar quality pitcher, they just hit the snot out of the ball. I don't believe that a #3-5 guy that can be had for a reasonable(ish) trade price is an upgrade the postseason rotation, or that it's a good idea to trade for a slight upgrade for one possible matchup.

I also don't think Bailey is the same pitcher as he was the last time he faced the Royals.

[FlyingFinn]

48 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm not confident about Stewart, alas.

He's on a rehab assignment right now with the Saints.

[twinfan]

Kikuchi is not as good as you think. Bassett is too expensive for us. So is Gausman who has been a big mystery this year. Why wouldn't we want Berrios back? He's not a #1 but is a solid starter who is not as expensive. I like Woods-Richardson but see him more of a Les Straker type. Hopefully I will be proven wrong. If we can rent Scherzer, I say roll with what we have and hope the good hitting continues.

[DJL44]

6 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

He's on a rehab assignment right now with the Saints.

I expect pitch-for-a-while then injured-for-a-while is how Stewart spends the rest of his MLB career. I'd be shocked if he played an entire season without going on the IL.

[Mike Sixel]

16 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

He's on a rehab assignment right now with the Saints.

I had not heard. That's great news. 

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm not confident about Stewart, alas. They seem very reluctant to move varland, as they were with Jax. I'd move him for sure, and that might take care of the bullpen. 

There is no cheap, great, starter out there, not for a team bent on cutting payroll. I still think if they want to add a starter, they'll be forced to deal Kepler to offset the cost. 

I think Varland gets moved to the pen in September. I think that makes sense. Despite him not being someone I want starting games, they need to keep him stretched out in case of injury. It's been truly amazing the health they've had in their rotation the last 2 years. But I think they leave Varland in the AAA rotation until September and then his career as a starter is probably over and he'll be a fulltime pen guy moving forward.

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I think Varland gets moved to the pen in September. I think that makes sense. Despite him not being someone I want starting games, they need to keep him stretched out in case of injury. It's been truly amazing the health they've had in their rotation the last 2 years. But I think they leave Varland in the AAA rotation until September and then his career as a starter is probably over and he'll be a fulltime pen guy moving forward.

He can be stretched out in a week or two. Someone else can make an emergency start if needed. I hope you're correct about next year. They're wasting his arm trying to keep him a starter. 

I agree I'm tilting at windmills here 😀

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, Mike Sixel said:

He can be stretched out in a week or two. Someone else can make an emergency start if needed. I hope you're correct about next year. They're wasting his arm trying to keep him a starter. 

I agree I'm tilting at windmills here 😀

A week or 2 is of no use when you need the starter in 5 days. Sure, Festa could make the start, but beyond that it gets ugly quick. And I'd argue Varland and Festa is already ugly. It wouldn't be crazy to put him in the pen now, but there's also a logical reason not to. I'd expect Festa is their #6 next year with Varland in the pen and Zebby or one of the other AA arms currently being the Festa next year. I don't think Varland in the pen now vs September makes much of a difference.

[hitterscount]

No to any of them... If you're going after a starter it needs to be one that improves the rotation, he may cost some really good propects, but with the Cubs stinking it up I would look at Justin Steele, a much needed lefty that comes with a small salary. Not sure if he is under team control in 25, but would be a nice addition.

[old nurse]

Which of these starting pitchers is going to be a stopper in the post season and with giving up a couple of top prospects?

[MABB1959]

2 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

When is a good time to make a trade then? If not now, when? Serious question.

When they have a chance to get tp the ALDS or go to the World Series.  To me this year the chances of winning the ALC are low.  Wild Card is looking good but could they get past the Yankees or Orioles?

[nicksaviking]

4 minutes ago, hitterscount said:

No to any of them... If you're going after a starter it needs to be one that improves the rotation, he may cost some really good propects, but with the Cubs stinking it up I would look at Justin Steele, a much needed lefty that comes with a small salary. Not sure if he is under team control in 25, but would be a nice addition.

I agree with going after ceiling players, not floor, and I'd give up a ton for Steele.

However, I do think Kikuchi has the stuff to be a top end arm though. Even if it's only for this season when no one is hitting HRs anymore. I like him quite a bit more than Gausman and Bassitt. Just my take.

 

[SaberNerd]

Gausman scares me.  You are getting his age 34-35 seasons after this year, his velo is down 0.6mph this year, and his split-finger whiff% is 33% when it was well in the 40s the previous 4 years.  K% lowest since 2018.  Father time might be catching up to him, and once the split-finger is average he may fall off a cliff.

[bean5302]

I'm not interested in back end rotation arms. Only playoff caliber arms, and specifically, pitchers would would be the best starter on the team. Bassitt maybe qualifies, but that's awfully dicey. Joe Ryan is defying all odds in performing like a legit, front end #2 this year, but he's not an ace. I mean, good on him, but I don't trust him given his 2nd half swoon every year so far.

For people talking about Bassitt being a #4
2020-2024
Bassitt - 3.31 ERA, 3.77 FIP, 8.5 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 1.17 WHIP
Lopez  - 3.82 ERA, 3.49 FIP, 9.9 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 1.16 WHIP
Berrios - 4.03 ERA, 4.16 FIP, 8.5 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 1.21 WHIP

Bassitt is basically as good as Pablo Lopez, though I don't like his bump in BB rate this year. Back end #2 type of pitcher. He's playoff caliber. Berrios is a #3 at this point, and there's reason to suspect he's got some luck on his side with a .252 BABIP this year which, in concert with him being victimized by the deep ball (16.0% HR/FB) is leading to a ghastly 5.07 FIP.

The article says Falvey has never paid $20MM for a pitcher. Well, Lopez is making $22MM starting next year, and it seems like a lot of fans have a genuine obsession with making sure every comment, every article, every blog post making sure they take a dig at ownership as being cheap. The Twins' payroll has been $150MM+ the past two years, they're at $131MM right now. They got their TV deal in place, and I don't think there's any reason not to believe that ownership will be willing to open their pockets for a high probability of another playoff run. They made money last year thanks to advancing in the playoffs. Given the same scenario this year, I expect them to invest. Btw, a $40MM pitcher doesn't cost $40MM at the trade deadline because there's only 1/3 of the season left.
$40MM = $13MM
$30MM = $10MM
$20MM = $7MM
$10MM = $3MM
None of that is likely out of payroll reach for the Twins.
 

[Cory Engelhardt]

19 minutes ago, MABB1959 said:

When they have a chance to get tp the ALDS or go to the World Series.  To me this year the chances of winning the ALC are low.  Wild Card is looking good but could they get past the Yankees or Orioles?

In a 7 game series in the playoffs, anything is possible. Both wild card teams made the world series last year, not the heavyweights. 

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

He's not a starter. Make him a RP in the regular season so he has experience in tight situations. They refused to move Jax for years on the tiny chance he was a starter. 

They have the makings of a starting rotation through 2027 consisting of Pablo, Ryan, Ober, and SWR. The fifth spot can be Festa, Raya or a bridge vet like Paddack. I understand wanting to have depth in AAA but Varland's not in. Move him to the pen sooner rather than later.

[joefish]

Give me a strong lefty starter and one lefty upgrade for the pen. 

[bean5302]

7 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

In a 7 game series in the playoffs, anything is possible. Both wild card teams made the world series last year, not the heavyweights. 

No joke. This whole "The Twins better be far and away the best team in all of MLB otherwise they're trash, and they have no hope!" trope is seriously BS. The Twins are a good team. An ace makes them a great team in the playoffs. In typical playoff fashion, the favorite wins the series 50-60% of the time.

The Twins fans are just used to 1 and out. 1 and out. 3 and out. 1 and out. That's not how the rest of MLB works and why the Twins set an all time record among major sports (not just MLB) for consecutive playoff losses. What changed that? An elite top rotation.