2024 Twins Season Midpoint. Comments, Observations, Projections and Predictions.

[stringer bell]

We've reached the halfway point of the Twins' 2024 season. The club stands at 45-36, which projects to 90 wins for the complete season. What has surprised you? Who deserves credit for exceeding expectations? Disappointments? Predictions for the second half? Will there be a postseason for our favorite baseball team?

[Mike Sixel]

If you'd told me Lopez would be this bad, and Lewis would miss this much time, and Julien and Wallner were demoted quickly, I'd have predicted 36 wins at this point. The front office deserves a lot of credit, and I was totally wrong about Santana....

[stringer bell]

Responding to my own thread (classy!), here are some observations.

1) The Twins need better performance and consistency out of their rotation. Ober, Paddack and especially López had too many noncompetitive outings in the first half. Joe Ryan was easily the best starter and the most consistent.

2) The bullpen has been a mixed bag all season. Injuries limited them early and poor performance from Durán and Thielbar (among the trusted arms) along with injuries to Stewart and Topa make it hard to be confident going forward. The best relief pitcher has been Griffin Jax, and it isn't close. Alcalá has been very good so far and Josh Staumont looks promising.

3) While maddening with their inconsistency, the offense has been quite good. The homers haven't been as frequent, but scoring runs without homers has made up for it. They are striking out at a markedly lower rate than last year.

4) The disappointments of three young left handed hitters (Kirilloff, Julien and Wallner) have been made up by unexpected contributions from Willi Castro, Trevor Larnach, José Miranda and Carlos Santana. Given the struggles of the guys who were platooned, maybe it was wise to do so. While contributions from Kyle Farmer and Manuel Margot have been minimal overall, they have performed better of late and are probably as good of options as the three disappointing left handed hitters. 

5) Willi Castro has blossomed into a full-time regular who is used all over the infield and outfield. He deserves to be an All-Star as a utility player.

6) Cleveland has emerged as a top team this year. They have had a lot of things going for them and it is unlikely that they will continue to be as hot as their first half. They have a large lead and the Twins will be hard pressed to make up all the ground they need to in order to win the AL Central

7) A Wild Card might be the Twins way to advance to the postseason. I think they are likely to be in the fight for a wild card and a good bet to claim a spot. It makes winning in postseason tough, but last year, we had two Wild Cards playing in the World Series. 

 

[Parfigliano]

Biggest suprise Willi Castro.

[USAFChief]

I'm surprised at Cleveland. 

Very pleasantly surprised by Santana, Buxton's relative health, and SWR. Very surprised, in a bad way, by Julien.

Mildly surprised by Castro. 

Disappointed in Lopez and the pen. Continue to be disappointed the front office didn't add starting pitching last winter.

I don't think the pen can get the team to the postseason as constructed. I don't think the offense will be as good second half for one thing.

 

[LA Vikes Fan]

20 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

Biggest suprise Willi Castro.

Castro is the biggest and most important surprise. Second biggest and second most important - Jose Miranda. His hitting against RH pitching and consistent RBI production has really helped make up for the poor performances from Julien, Wallner, and the last month or so of Kepler. He should be playing every day and hitting in the 4 or 5 spot.  

[stringer bell]

A pleasant surprise has been the relative health of the roster, especially since the first week of May. Lewis was injured on Opening Day, Correa and Kepler spent time on the IL early and there was a whole host of pitching injuries, including Brock Stewart. Since May 3, the only player to go on the IL is Alex Kirilloff. The only pitcher is Paddack. That is eight weeks of play with only one position player and one pitcher missing time.

[wabene]

What has caught my eye is the overall organizational depth. Their break out performers from last year, Wallner, Julien and Kirilloff, fall flat but you have Miranda and others stepping up. Jeffers and Kepler cool off significantly, but others get hot. Then you have depth coming up from the farm Alcala showing out, Festa and further down Zebulon and Morris looking good. Lee. This Twins fan is not used to this.

[DJL44]

I've been surprised at how ineffective Duran has been. They need him to come back strong in the second half.

[Linus]

Really pleased with Castro Buck and Correa. Miranda bouncing back is an important development. Not surprised to see Wallner and Julien struggle. And Kepler is back to being Kepler. At least the off season decision on him will be easy. It was pretty obvious they needed to add a starter in the off season but ownership decided that one. And a big shout out to SWR.  We would be in a world of hurt had he not stepped up. 

[DocBauer]

I have to break it down individually I think.

1] OVERALL: 

I thought this team was 88-94 wins as built. Despite the 7-13 start...which I NEVER SAW...and the 7 game game losing streak didn't help...they are currently on pace for 90-ish wins. They've been playing at about 100 win pace since something like May 1st or mid-May?? But how they've been making that happen has surprised me.

2] ROTATION:

I never saw Lopez struggling this much so far. Take away about 3 starts, Ober has been as good as expected, and is ramping up lately. I never saw Varland blowing up! And while I had hope SWR would be ready to contribute mid season, I never saw him being this good, and getting better, this soon. Despite Hekyl and Jekyll performances, Paddack has surprised me with how good he's looked in about 75% of his games. He's been downright dominate in a few games, OK and WORKED through a couple games, and been TIRED in a few games. Like Maeda last year, I think a rest sets him up for a strong 2nd half.

Right now, right or wrong, I'm just not worried about the rotation.

3] BULLPEN:

I NEVER saw Duran having issues. I honestly didn't see Thielbar having issues either, despite age, based on 2023 and before. I thought he'd have at least one more good season in his arm. I think the pen has, largely, done the job. The whole "best pen in MLB" came from pundits, not from the Twins. 

Duran and Thielbar SHOULD have been just fine when healthy again following injuries. They haven't been. Is there something else going on? Were they just so messed up with missing so much time that they're still just trying to find themselves? Crap like this happens. 

Topa was actually a solid addition in trade and developed an elbow injury. Duarte was a FA flier who forced his way on to the roster and his elbow gave out. Stewart, again, has had an injury that needs rest. 

Topa is throwing again. There's hope there. Stewart is throwing again, there's hope there. I don't know that we have anything but HOPE that Thielbar will find himself again.

MEANWHILE, Alcala is not only finding himself, but is actually being used properly. Staumont is still finding himself with a new mix healthy again and looking pretty solid. Okert had been solid, and Funderburk keeps teasing how good he might be. Sands is OK, and has "flipped" with Alcala FINALLY as a guy who can do 1 or 2 innings as needed.

No injuries, Varland might just head to the pen in August for good. But injuries have really hurt the pen from Duran, to Thielbar, to Topa, to Stewart, and even a potential helping arm in Duarte. And yet, Stewart back at some point, Duran being even a little better. Varland to the pen, MAYBE Topa back at some point, Funderburk settling in, even without Thielbar coming back this pen has performed well overall. You can never, generally, regret adding a pen arm in a trade. And I think a LH arm MIGHT be a priority if Thielbar doesn't take a step forward, pending Okert or Funderburk stepping forward. But despite all the injuries, the pen has been pretty solid. So I guess I'm surprised a bit how solid the pen has been despite all the injuries.

4] OFFENSE:

From May 1st the Twins have had one of the most productive offenses in MLB. Surprisingly, they've been dangerous as hell against LHP since June, I believe. Lewis is part of that equation, of course. But Buxton has suddenly learned how to hit again. Correa has been on FIRE. Larnach has been good. Miranda looks like the hitter we thought he might be. Castro is really good. Santana has SURPRISED!

SUDDENLY the offense isn't a problem, similar to last year. BUT, there is STILL an opportunity to add another bat. But I honestly think an added bat may come from what we already have. I think somehow, some way, Lee, Julien, Wallner, is going to come up over the next few weeks to add to the offense and make a difference. 

I've been SURPRISED how good the offense has been with surprising regression from guys that I see as future mainstays, but progression from Miranda, Larnach. Buxton getting hot again, Santana trying to defy age, and Castro being even better than he was last year.

But the offense could be even better with one more LH bat, IMO. That MIGHT be Lee at 2B. It MIGHT be Wallner in the OF. Not sure there's room for both. Wish there was.

 

[Shaitan]

On 6/28/2024 at 6:51 PM, USAFChief said:

Continue to be disappointed the front office didn't add starting pitching last winter.

 

While I wish they'd replaced Gray, I also didn't really think there were good options in the offseason last year. So I don't put it totally on the FO. It was also the wrong market at the wrong time. (Yes, I know it's their job to adapt and plan for that too. I'm just repeating my winter arguments that while I wanted more pitching, I didn't want those pitchers either.)

 

[wabene]

14 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Topa was actually a solid addition in trade and developed an elbow injury

Patella tendonitis, Doc.

 

Man that is a whole lot of injuries in the pen.

[DocBauer]

13 minutes ago, wabene said:

Patella tendonitis, Doc.

 

Man that is a whole lot of injuries in the pen.

Thank you. Bad memory. :)

[Vanimal46]

I’m still not overly optimistic about the team. They have dominated the cellar dwellers, mostly competitive against the mid tiers in the league, and got dominated by the elite teams. 

Pleasant surprises:

- How competitive the AL Central is 

- Jose Miranda

- SWR 

- Josh Staumont 

 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

On 6/27/2024 at 10:20 PM, stringer bell said:

4) The disappointments of three young left handed hitters (Kirilloff, Julien and Wallner) have been made up by unexpected contributions from Willi Castro, Trevor Larnach, José Miranda and Carlos Santana. Given the struggles of the guys who were platooned, maybe it was wise to do so. While contributions from Kyle Farmer and Manuel Margot have been minimal overall, they have performed better of late and are probably as good of options as the three disappointing left handed hitters. 

I am thinking the front office made a conscious pivot away from strikeouts this past offseason. Good for them.

Thus, Manuel Margot and Carlos Santana, in place of Michael A. Taylor and Joey Gallo. Not fancy or popular, and Taylor had a nice 2023, but the lineup rolls so nicely when you have guys up and down the order, putting the ball in play. Santana has done that.

Santana has also played a good first base I am assuming. I have suggested Kirilloff and Miranda platoon at first, but for 2024, one player is better than two. Therefore I think my first half MVP would be Carlos Santana. (Even though I knocked him for something recently, don’t remember what 🙂)

[blairpaul715]

While I havnt been able to watch the Twins this year (follow on GameDay) here are a few Contract ideas. What would be your thoughts on these??

Player or team would/should decline accept??!!

Ryan Jeffers-4 yrs, $45M (5th yr, $18M CO, $2M BOut)

Jose Miranda-5 yrs, $35M (6th yr, $20M CO, $2M BOut)

Royce Lewis-6yrs, $70M 

Trevor Larnach-5 yrs, $31M (6th yr, $15M CO, $1M BOut)

Willi Castro-3 yrs, $25M (Buy 2 yrs FA)

Chris Paddock-2 yrs, $25 (Buy another 2 yrs FA) 

Bailey Ober-4 yrs, 32M (Buying 1 yr of FA)

Joe Ryan-4 yrs, $45M (Buying 1 yr of FA)

Simeon Woods Richardson-8 yrs, $50M (Buying 2 yrs of FA)

Happy to explain how I came up with these numbers, if they seem way off. 🙂🙂🙂

[lecroy24fan]

Not really on topic but we can say that this plays into ovbservation s I guess.

Payroll ain't going up anytime soon so they won't sign any of them soon. Ryan, Lewis, and Castro I'd do in a heartbeat. Uderpay for all of them really. Paddock needs to stay healthy after he gets back this season to even consider a deal. Jeffers I want to see how the rest of the season plays out and IMO this would be an overpay. Larnach, Miranda, SWR too soon to go this many years and money. Ober I'd like that deal but probably too soon to do that much. 

[TwinsCD]

The good -- MIRANDA (love how he's come back from what could have been a career-killing '23), Alcala being healthy and showing us what he's capable of, the much lower strikeout rate and better approaches at the plate since the 7-13 start, SWR showing that he's a very competitive 5th starter, Buxton playing as many games as he has, Castro's 1st half emergence, a different guy every night.

The bad -- Wallner, Julien, and Kirilloff, Thielbar's loss of control, the continued confidence in Jay Jackson that is hopefully over now, Lopez not cementing himself as the ace of the staff (as in, 1 bad outing out of 4 or 5...his is more like 1 good outing out of 4 or 5 when we need 3 in that space), Varland's April.

I think I'm most surprised that Cleveland has played as well as they have but I'm not in the camp of giving them the division right now.  Twins still have a bunch of games with them and the Guards have just about used up their allotment against the Chisux.  With having won the season series against Seattle and the opportunity to do that this weekend against Houston, winning the division could give the Twins a great shot at that 2 seed and the first-round bye.  I really like how they seem to have built a 'stairway to heaven' of Alcala in the 7th, Jax in the 8th, and Duran in the 9th and I hope that will play similarly to how the Royals used theirs to win the World Series in '15 (yes, I still can't believe that happened).  When Stewart returns after the ASB, he'll add another terrific element to that stairway and be a nice interchangeable part if someone in the big 3 needs a rest.  I still have a very good feeling that I'll be cashing my Twins division winner and over 86 1/2 wins bets once we get to September 29.  

[RpR]

They just interviewed Julien on WCCO  sports news and his attitude is probably half his problems.

 

[Roaddog]

The good

Miranda has been very impressive. I figured he was out of their plans after last year. Also Woods-Richardson. I never would've guessed he was going to be staying

The bad

Number one has to be Kiriloff. I've been a big fan, but he's testing even my patience. Wallner was also disappointing, I'm hoping he has cured himself. Julien is also on this list.

That being said, I'm shocked we haven't been worse. Here's hoping the 2nd half is better. Love to see the kids( Lee, Martin, Festa etc) get their shot.

[akmanak]

The owners are so disconnected from their fan base it makes me want to vomit. In no way did I believe the Twins would be off air for this length of time and it clearly shows that the owners only care about money and not about the team or fans.

 

With that out of the way, I am surprised by the offensive onslaught that has continued through the month of July.  I am also pleased to see the strikeout rate has plummeted and batters are having longer ABs. 

 

I am disappointed at how the bullpen has performed. This was suppose to be a major strength this year and it has turned into a major disappointment. It needs to get fixed but again I really do not think the owners care as long as they get the moolah. 

 

In closing I am still really bitter about the team as a whole and wish they would simply just sell the team. 

[stringer bell]

17 minutes ago, akmanak said:

The owners are so disconnected from their fan base it makes me want to vomit. In no way did I believe the Twins would be off air for this length of time and it clearly shows that the owners only care about money and not about the team or fans.

 

With that out of the way, I am surprised by the offensive onslaught that has continued through the month of July.  I am also pleased to see the strikeout rate has plummeted and batters are having longer ABs. 

 

I am disappointed at how the bullpen has performed. This was suppose to be a major strength this year and it has turned into a major disappointment. It needs to get fixed but again I really do not think the owners care as long as they get the moolah. 

 

In closing I am still really bitter about the team as a whole and wish they would simply just sell the team. 

And the quandary is how to express one's displeasure. The ownership has appeared tone-deaf and greedy when the pieces are there for a championship. Should I not support the team because of the owners? Falvey and Levine have put together a team that is fun to watch and seems to have a lot of good guys. I want to support that group even if it puts more money in Pohlad pockets, so I shrug and say "go Twins". 

I can respect people who take a different view. I just like baseball and the Minnesota Twins too much to take that path. 

[Linus]

32 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

And the quandary is how to express one's displeasure. The ownership has appeared tone-deaf and greedy when the pieces are there for a championship. Should I not support the team because of the owners? Falvey and Levine have put together a team that is fun to watch and seems to have a lot of good guys. I want to support that group even if it puts more money in Pohlad pockets, so I shrug and say "go Twins". 

I can respect people who take a different view. I just like baseball and the Minnesota Twins too much to take that path. 

Me too which makes it an odd situation. I’m guessing other people are making it felt at some level. They made it far too easy for the casual fan to disengage. I have several family members who used to go to 2-3 games a year but have stopped completely because they can’t watch them on TV. Meanwhile this team has a bunch of good guys and is fun to watch (if you can). 

[USAFChief]

3 hours ago, stringer bell said:

And the quandary is how to express one's displeasure. The ownership has appeared tone-deaf and greedy when the pieces are there for a championship. Should I not support the team because of the owners? Falvey and Levine have put together a team that is fun to watch and seems to have a lot of good guys. I want to support that group even if it puts more money in Pohlad pockets, so I shrug and say "go Twins". 

I can respect people who take a different view. I just like baseball and the Minnesota Twins too much to take that path. 

I'm far too deep into my lifelong Twins fandom to stay away. 

But I believe strongly they're hurting their own brand. Hurting badly.

Me, I'll just bitch about it while finding a way to watch, and go to games when I can.

[Trov]

Biggest surprise for me is the long streaks at the beginning of the year, both losing and winning streaks.  They have got back to a more consistent 2 out of 3 type thing.  Not sure how often a team has streaks as long as they had on both sides in a season.  I am would who deserves the most credit is FO for not overreacting to slow start and building good depth.  Lopez has been a little disappointing, but his FIP is much lower than his ERA suggesting some better outcomes in future.  I expect we will make postseason, at minimum as wild card, but feel like we could catch Cleveland.  Cleveland has historically faded in second half in past few years.  They have a top heavy line up that a couple of guys are playing well above their career norms.  They have a good pen, but with poor starters that pen will start to get overworked. 

[Marta1988]

We're halfway through the Twins 2024 season and there are a lot of positive things to report. If we stay healthy and focused, we can aim for the playoffs. With m88 bonus code, we can choose the best results for our team. I foresee a good number of victories with some possible revelations among the players. Go Twins!

[Mike Sixel]

Fangraphs has the Twins as the 6th best team in MLB.......which is weird, since their manager can't manage and the FO has no idea what it's doing....

[Road trip]

54 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Fangraphs has the Twins as the 6th best team in MLB.......which is weird, since their manager can't manage and the FO has no idea what it's doing....

Indeed.  But people are going to gripe and look for someone(s) to blame when things don't go well.  I think the griping has decreased somewhat in recent weeks as the play has improved.

As a fan base we are processing several relatively new realities, and change is hard.  These new realities would include:

1. Players spending far more time on the injured list compared to a decade or two ago (this is a league-wide issue, but it is always more noticeable on the team you follow closely).  This has led to the perception that the FO has signed/traded for injury-prone players.  This is true, but so has everyone else.

2. Scoring being down dramatically compared to just a few years ago (which leads to the perception that the FO/Rocco can't evaluate and develop hitters, or that they pursue too many platoon bats in a desperate attempt to squeeze out extra runs).

3. The advent of the analytic/corporate Manager, vs the traditional Billy Martin/Earl Weaver/Lou Pinella passionate yeller-screamer.  This is also a league-wide trend.  If Rocco were fired tomorrow, the Twins would almost certainly hire a similar type of manager.  It isn't, however, what many older fans are accustomed to.

4. The failed TV deal...which has just generally pissed off everyone in the Twins home territory, and for good reason.

Overall, I'm content to slightly disappointed in this year's team.  Things are trending upward, and perhaps the Twins really are the 6th best team as determined by FanGraphs.  The problem is that it seems like there is a very wide gap between the very top teams (Yankees, Baltimore) and the Twins at #6.  I've very much enjoyed seeing some of the youngsters progress (SWR, Miranda, and now Lee).  Development is key for this franchise... gotta roll the dice on the kids because the Twins have almost never spent big $s, and certainly won't this year.

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, Road trip said:

Indeed.  But people are going to gripe and look for someone(s) to blame when things don't go well.  I think the griping has decreased somewhat in recent weeks as the play has improved.

As a fan base we are processing several relatively new realities, and change is hard.  These new realities would include:

1. Players spending far more time on the injured list compared to a decade or two ago (this is a league-wide issue, but it is always more noticeable on the team you follow closely).  This has led to the perception that the FO has signed/traded for injury-prone players.  This is true, but so has everyone else.

2. Scoring being down dramatically compared to just a few years ago (which leads to the perception that the FO/Rocco can't evaluate and develop hitters, or that they pursue too many platoon bats in a desperate attempt to squeeze out extra runs).

3. The advent of the analytic/corporate Manager, vs the traditional Billy Martin/Earl Weaver/Lou Pinella passionate yeller-screamer.  This is also a league-wide trend.  If Rocco were fired tomorrow, the Twins would almost certainly hire a similar type of manager.  It isn't, however, what many older fans are accustomed to.

4. The failed TV deal...which has just generally pissed off everyone in the Twins home territory, and for good reason.

Overall, I'm content to slightly disappointed in this year's team.  Things are trending upward, and perhaps the Twins really are the 6th best team as determined by FanGraphs.  The problem is that it seems like there is a very wide gap between the very top teams (Yankees, Baltimore) and the Twins at #6.  I've very much enjoyed seeing some of the youngsters progress (SWR, Miranda, and now Lee).  Development is key for this franchise... gotta roll the dice on the kids because the Twins have almost never spent big $s, and certainly won't this year.

thoughtful post!

The last part is one area where I am critical of the FO, not trusting their own development as much as I would, but I was sure wrong on Santana (though anyone that thinks he's likely to have his best year in many, many years, is optimistic).