Let's Make a Deal: Players the Twins Could Acquire from the Mets

[Matthew Lenz]

Thanks to an abysmal month of May that saw them go 9-19, the New York Mets are seven games under .500 and firmly out of the NL East picture. That said, as of this writing, they find themselves just three games out of a Wild Card spot, so it's still not certain whether they will be sellers next month.

Image courtesy of © Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

If the Mets do sell, there are surely pieces on whom the Minnesota Twins need to kick the tires, and nobody sticks out more than their power-hitting first basemen. I’m going to bow out of writing more on Pete Alonso, though, and direct you to a great read on this very topic by our very own, Cody Christie. The only thing worth adding, since that piece was written at the beginning of the month, is that the need is even greater after the demotion of Alex Kirilloff.

So who else is there? Let's start by looking at some pitching help. Let me preface this section with my belief that you can never have enough pitching--like, ever. So, while David Festa looks to be nearly ready for his crack at the big-league rotation, I'm hoping the Twins acquire a back-end or better arm, even if that pushes his debut into 2025.

Starting Pitchers
While acquiring a back-end arm may not be overly helpful in the postseason, the team needs to get there first. The Mets have two starting arms on expiring deals on whom I'd expect the Minnesota front office to call. At the top of that list is the same pitcher the Twins chased from the 2017 Wild Card game against the Yankees, in righthander Luis Severino. 

Severino has struggled through injuries over the five seasons leading up to 2024, but he's regained his pre-2019 form this season, posting a 3.25/3.73 ERA/FIP over 12 starts wherein he's averaged 6.0 innings per start. Given his production and the relatively cheap cost, he likely will fetch a pretty solid return in a competitive market. Because of the injury history, likely demand, and the recent track record of Twins trading prospects for pitchers, I’m probably out on Severino, but I can't say he's not intriguing.

Less productive, for a similar amount of money and with a player option for 2025, is Sean Manaea. While his surface stats aren't great (with a 4.30/3.79 ERA/FIP) and his expected stats suggest potential regression, he'd still be an upgrade over the current options the Twins have for the back of their rotation. I like him as an upgrade, because he really fits the Twins' mold. He has elite extension, a plus sinker, and a sweeper that has been effective in the past.

This type of pitcher (see Joe Ryan and Pablo López) is a perfect fit. The Twins' coaching staff should be able to get the most out of his arsenal and bring him back to something like the pitcher he was with the Oakland Athletics.

Relief Pitchers
Adam Ottavino has been a solid (though usually unspectacular) reliever across 11 big-league seasons. His expected stats and projection models scream for positive regression in the ERA department, and he's posting a very solid K-BB% of 22.2. Aside from Griffin Jax, the Twins bullpen has been unreliable--especially the low-leverage end of the bullpen, which has been like a State Fair shuttle, traveling non-stop between Target Field and CHS Field. Search Ottavino's name on Twitter, and you'll find myriad tweets demanding that he be designated for assignment. While I don't think that's likely, I think he could be had fairly cheaply, compared to the starters named above.

Hitters
The Twins are very much in need of a left-handed bat (of which, alas, the Mets don't have much to offer) and help in the outfield. The only name on an expiring contract that really makes some sense here is Harrison Bader, as a Manuel Margot replacement and Byron Buxton insurance. While it doesn't move the needle, Bader would absolutely be an upgrade over Margot on both sides of the ball. Per wRC+, he's basically been a league-average contributor in 2024 and sports a .697 OPS, with respectable strikeout and walk rates. I wouldn't hate the move, assuming the cost is fair, but it can't be the only move the Twins make.

Staying in the grass, Starling Marte is having a bit of a renaissance, but he's owed nearly $21 million next season when he’ll be in his age-36 season. Moving out of the outfield (and actually completely off the diamond), J.D. Martinez is back from injury and is performing well. That said, a DH-only player doesn't neatly fit into the roster construction and platoon-heavy approach this staff employs.

At the end of the day, the only two names that I think move the needle and would cost a price I'm willing to pay are Manaea and Ottavino. In my opinion, Severino will cost too much, Bader doesn't do much to improve the club, Marte’s salary is too much for a team on a “budget”, and J.D. Martinez doesn't fit.

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What are your thoughts on the names mentioned above? Is there anyone else you'd be interested in the Twins adding? Join me in the comments!

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[Cory Engelhardt]

 Good article. I do think Pete Alonso would be a GREAT addition to our lineup. We'll see.

[olerud]

O Interest in any of that!

[olerud]

My Interestis in getting a manager with some gut instincts instead of a robotic like one that we have!!!!¡

[DJL44]

JD Martinez and his 130 OPS+ would fit just fine in the Twins lineup. He doesn't make much money (most of it is deferred) so he would fit just fine in the budget. The Twins have been rotating players through the DH spot but they would be better off handing the job to a professional hitter like Martinez.

I like Ottavino as an addition. Veteran relievers with good peripherals and bad results at the beginning of the season are always the best buys at the trade deadline. They cost almost nothing and often perform very well down the stretch.

[LA Vikes Fan]

I don't see anything interesting here. As I've said in other posts, I don't think the Twins should be trading for any rental players. We aren't close enough to real contention to push our chips in for this year by trading prospects. Besides, none of these guys really move the needle.  Manaea would have been interesting a couple of years ago for the reasons Matt posits but now he's 32, costs roughly $15m a year, and doesn't offer much better performance than Ober, Paddack, or Woods-Richardson. He's someone you look at IF there's a significant injury to one of  the starting 5 AND Varland doesn't perform. 

BTW, I am enjoying this series going through selling teams to see if there's anything we want to pursue. The more we do that though the more convinced I become that the only real targets for trades are Jesus Luzardo of the Marlins and Tyler Anderson, Luis Rengifo, and Taylor Ward of the Angels. All have at least one year of control after 2024 at a reasonable cost. The only rentals I would consider are Pete Alonso - but he will cost a lot of prospect capital and is going back to the Mets after the season - and Jesse Winker of the Nationals. Winker is cheap and shouldn't cost us too much in prospect capital, although I'm not sure how much of an upgrade he really is over Margot if an upgrade at all. I really hope that the FO is talking now with the Marlins and the Angels. 

I expect the Twins to do very little at the trade deadline other than possibly moving Margot or Farmer for A or A+ ball types to clear room for Lee, Julien, or Wallner. Frankly, I think that's the best approach. We're in playoff contention but not in "win more than one playoff series" contention. This is a year to set up next year by playing guys like Miranda, Martin, Lee, etc. so we have a solid fixed lineup for next season that doesn't require us to sign one year vets like Santana and Margot. If we can get there, THEN we can make a move by trading prospects/young MLB guys for a big bat or frontline pitcher. That sounds like more of an offseason move to me. 

[Karbo]

56 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

 Good article. I do think Pete Alonso would be a GREAT addition to our lineup. We'll see.

I think that is called dreaming.

[Mike Sixel]

19 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I don't see anything interesting here. As I've said in other posts, I don't think the Twins should be trading for any rental players. We aren't close enough to real contention to push our chips in for this year by trading prospects. Besides, none of these guys really move the needle.  Manaea would have been interesting a couple of years ago for the reasons Matt posits but now he's 32, costs roughly $15m a year, and doesn't offer much better performance than Ober, Paddack, or Woods-Richardson. He's someone you look at IF there's a significant injury to one of  the starting 5 AND Varland doesn't perform. 

BTW, I am enjoying this series going through selling teams to see if there's anything we want to pursue. The more we do that though the more convinced I become that the only real targets for trades are Jesus Luzardo of the Marlins and Tyler Anderson, Luis Rengifo, and Taylor Ward of the Angels. All have at least one year of control after 2024 at a reasonable cost. The only rentals I would consider are Pete Alonso - but he will cost a lot of prospect capital and is going back to the Mets after the season - and Jesse Winker of the Nationals. Winker is cheap and shouldn't cost us too much in prospect capital, although I'm not sure how much of an upgrade he really is over Margot if an upgrade at all. I really hope that the FO is talking now with the Marlins and the Angels. 

I expect the Twins to do very little at the trade deadline other than possibly moving Margot or Farmer for A or A+ ball types to clear room for Lee, Julien, or Wallner. Frankly, I think that's the best approach. We're in playoff contention but not in "win more than one playoff series" contention. This is a year to set up next year by playing guys like Miranda, Martin, Lee, etc. so we have a solid fixed lineup for next season that doesn't require us to sign one year vets like Santana and Margot. If we can get there, THEN we can make a move by trading prospects/young MLB guys for a big bat or frontline pitcher. That sounds like more of an offseason move to me. 

So much of that last paragraph is how I feel.

[terrydactyls]

These reports of what might be available are depressing.  I think the Twins should stay out of the trade market and work with what they have at both the major league and the minor league levels.

[Linus]

I appreciate these articles. It really gives a good picture of what’s possible and at what cost. For me it’s a realization that most of the players available for a reasonable ask and on a reasonable contract would not help the Twins enough to justify giving up the prospects. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

2 hours ago, Karbo said:

I think that is called dreaming.

I mean, to me, he will be a rental, and his salary for the remainder of the year is similar to what Kyle Farmer is making at this point. But maybe the Mets don't want to trade their face of their franchise in a lost year?

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I don't think the Twins should be trading for any rental players. We aren't close enough to real contention to push our chips in for this year by trading prospects.

Most prospects turn out to be nothing special. It's perfectly acceptable to send a C prospect for a veteran on an expiring contract. Is anyone regretting losing Casey Legumina?

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, terrydactyls said:

These reports of what might be available are depressing.  I think the Twins should stay out of the trade market and work with what they have at both the major league and the minor league levels.

There are very few teams who are completely out of the race and those teams are bad for a reason.

[cmoss84]

I actually think the Mets have some good pieces...if the price is right. 

That organization is toxic right now and a change of scenery might be what a lot of these guys need.

I'm in.

[jorgenswest]

Before they trade assets for position players they would be wise to see how Julien and Wallner do back in the majors. I should add to that list Lee, Rodriguez and hopefully Kirilloff. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Most prospects turn out to be nothing special. It's perfectly acceptable to send a C prospect for a veteran on an expiring contract. Is anyone regretting losing Casey Legumina?

Not me. The problem is that C prospect isn't going to get you anyone any good. Casey Leguima got us Kyle Farmer. We don't need another Farmer, Margot, Santana, etc. type. We need a middle of the order bat, frontline starter or "late and close" reliever. We already have a pretty good roster of B/B+ MLB players with a couple of A/A- guys in Correa and hopefully Lewis. We need A rental guys if the goal is to really up our chances this year - Pete Alonso, Mason Miller, Chris Bassitt - and those guys are going to cost us. Trades for those kind of rentals start with someone like Brooks Lee, Festa, or Emma, and we'd have to add some good prospects with them.  I don't think that's worth it. 

There may be some marginal value for the FO trading a C prospect like Schobel, Severino, or De Andrade for a middle reliver or back end starter. But that's not going to put us over the top into contention so why do it for a one year rental? My point is the kind of rental that might really help is going to cost a lot of prospect capital and we just aren't good enough to take that shot this year and suffer the damage in future years. Others may differ,  

[bean5302]

The Twins need a left handed platoon bat like a submarine needs a screen door. If they want a lefty bat, all they have to do is look down to St. Paul (Wallner), (Julien) or Wichita (Rodriguez). 

As far as pitchers are concerned, the Twins probably don't need the depth as adding to the top creates depth and provides the team with a playoff caliber starter they honestly need. I don't think Severino is probably that guy anymore, even if his results are decent. He's not the ace he looked to be 5 years ago. 

[DJL44]

14 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

There may be some marginal value for the FO trading a C prospect like Schobel, Severino, or De Andrade for a middle reliver or back end starter. But that's not going to put us over the top into contention so why do it for a one year rental?

They only have a 2 game lead on Boston for the last wild-card spot. They need to get into the playoffs first and adding a rental bat or reliever could help.

[Schmoeman5]

4 hours ago, Karbo said:

I think that is called dreaming.

Johnny Burnette. Great song

[Jocko87]

8 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

 Good article. I do think Pete Alonso would be a GREAT addition to our lineup. We'll see.

I do not understand the fascination with Pete Alonso on the Twins. For a prospect we've never heard of, sure. At the actual price, what are we thinking? No thank you.

[Matthew Lenz]

10 hours ago, DJL44 said:

JD Martinez and his 130 OPS+ would fit just fine in the Twins lineup. He doesn't make much money (most of it is deferred) so he would fit just fine in the budget. The Twins have been rotating players through the DH spot but they would be better off handing the job to a professional hitter like Martinez.

I like Ottavino as an addition. Veteran relievers with good peripherals and bad results at the beginning of the season are always the best buys at the trade deadline. They cost almost nothing and often perform very well down the stretch.

I definitely agree with you on JD Martinez but, while Nelly Cruz did well for us, I just don't think it's realistic with his specific roster construction.

[Matthew Lenz]

10 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I don't see anything interesting here. As I've said in other posts, I don't think the Twins should be trading for any rental players. We aren't close enough to real contention to push our chips in for this year by trading prospects. Besides, none of these guys really move the needle.  Manaea would have been interesting a couple of years ago for the reasons Matt posits but now he's 32, costs roughly $15m a year, and doesn't offer much better performance than Ober, Paddack, or Woods-Richardson. He's someone you look at IF there's a significant injury to one of  the starting 5 AND Varland doesn't perform. 

BTW, I am enjoying this series going through selling teams to see if there's anything we want to pursue. The more we do that though the more convinced I become that the only real targets for trades are Jesus Luzardo of the Marlins and Tyler Anderson, Luis Rengifo, and Taylor Ward of the Angels. All have at least one year of control after 2024 at a reasonable cost. The only rentals I would consider are Pete Alonso - but he will cost a lot of prospect capital and is going back to the Mets after the season - and Jesse Winker of the Nationals. Winker is cheap and shouldn't cost us too much in prospect capital, although I'm not sure how much of an upgrade he really is over Margot if an upgrade at all. I really hope that the FO is talking now with the Marlins and the Angels. 

I expect the Twins to do very little at the trade deadline other than possibly moving Margot or Farmer for A or A+ ball types to clear room for Lee, Julien, or Wallner. Frankly, I think that's the best approach. We're in playoff contention but not in "win more than one playoff series" contention. This is a year to set up next year by playing guys like Miranda, Martin, Lee, etc. so we have a solid fixed lineup for next season that doesn't require us to sign one year vets like Santana and Margot. If we can get there, THEN we can make a move by trading prospects/young MLB guys for a big bat or frontline pitcher. That sounds like more of an offseason move to me. 

We've seen what this offense is capable of. With how it's built, there is going to be the peaks and valleys...what's to say a peak doesn't come in October and they make a run?

[Matthew Lenz]

7 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Most prospects turn out to be nothing special. It's perfectly acceptable to send a C prospect for a veteran on an expiring contract. Is anyone regretting losing Casey Legumina?

I agree with you and know I'm being unreasonable with my comment about their recent trades, but it's been a hard pill to swallow lately haha

[Matthew Lenz]

6 hours ago, cmoss84 said:

I actually think the Mets have some good pieces...if the price is right. 

That organization is toxic right now and a change of scenery might be what a lot of these guys need.

I'm in.

Idk why but I've totally talked myself into Manaea

[LambchoP]

Twins biggest need is starting pitching and we should only make a trade for a top 1-3 starter, with at least another year or two of control. Rentals aren't worth losing prospects this year. We need a solid starter at the top of our rotation like Luzardo and probably a leverage lefty for our bullpen to replace Theilbar. I like the guy, but he's done.

[JD-TWINS]

On 6/14/2024 at 12:14 PM, DJL44 said:

JD Martinez and his 130 OPS+ would fit just fine in the Twins lineup. He doesn't make much money (most of it is deferred) so he would fit just fine in the budget. The Twins have been rotating players through the DH spot but they would be better off handing the job to a professional hitter like Martinez.

I like Ottavino as an addition. Veteran relievers with good peripherals and bad results at the beginning of the season are always the best buys at the trade deadline. They cost almost nothing and often perform very well down the stretch.

Don’t see any deals for these guys…….. Ottavino is of interest but not a bunch different than Alcala - Staumont - potentially Topa by 7/31/24?

Twins starters OPS+ v. RH pitching:

Larnach (111) - Buxton (99) - Kepler (118)

Lewis (259) - CC (151) - Castro (118) - Santana (104)

Jeffers - (129) - Miranda (119)

Seems we should ride with these guys to me.

Any one or three of Wallner/Julien/ Kirilloff/Lee could come forward to improve this current group…….don’t see trades being made for positional players.

Margot - Farmer (Castro to left) subbed in for Larnach - Kepler - facing LH starting pitchers.

 

[ashbury]

I don't necessarily hate any of these acquisitions but would not want to pay much in terms of prospects.  Bader for example is Manny Margot except apparently still with centerfielder's chops; if the Mets were to accept Manny plus a low level prospect (outside our top 20 or 30, say) or two, sure, that's an upgrade worth a little effort I suspect. Severino probably will cost more than I'm willing to give up for a good pitcher on an expiring contract.  Manaea looks iffy but maybe the price in prospects is close to nothing, though the question of his player-option for next season would have to be addressed.  Ottavino's ERA is unsightly but at a quick glance he may have run into bad luck and is actually still at career norms for performance even at age 38. 

Fun to think about, devil's in the details.

[JD-TWINS]

22 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Most prospects turn out to be nothing special. It's perfectly acceptable to send a C prospect for a veteran on an expiring contract. Is anyone regretting losing Casey Legumina?

……..or Spencer Steer

[Doctor Wu]

On 6/15/2024 at 3:12 AM, bean5302 said:

The Twins need a left handed platoon bat like a submarine needs a screen door.

I  love that sentence!

[Doctor Wu]

On 6/15/2024 at 9:34 AM, Matthew Lenz said:

We've seen what this offense is capable of. With how it's built, there is going to be the peaks and valleys...what's to say a peak doesn't come in October and they make a run?

Very true, The Twins have certainly been streaky this season, but if they catch fire in October (if we make it to that point) things might be fun.