The Offensive Turnaround of the Minnesota Twins Has Been Astounding

[Nick Nelson]

If you've followed baseball for any length of time, you've seen no shortage of teams going from hot to cold, and vice versa. But the degree to which the Twins offense slingshotted from one of the league's absolute worst to one of the absolute best, and the suddenness of it happening, is truly stunning.

Image courtesy of Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports

You can draw a line in the sand when the Twins offense flipped a switch following a staggeringly bad offensive start. The date was April 20th, and the Twins had just lost their second game out of three to the Detroit Tigers, falling 6-1 in another lifeless effort at the plate. Casey Mize stifled Minnesota's bat over six scoreless innings and the Twins went 0-for-6 in scoring position, extending a woeful record of hitting in key spots.

At this point, 20 games into their season, the Twins were hitting .195/.281/.329 as a team with a collective 26.4% strikeout rate that ranked third-highest in the majors. They'd gone 7-13 while averaging just 3.3 runs per game. Then, came the switch flip.

The following day, April 21st, Minnesota opened a four-game set against the lowly White Sox at Target Field, cleansing themselves of the previous weekend with a clean 7-0 win. It was their first time scoring more than four runs in a nine-inning game since April 3rd, and just their fourth time all season notching double-digit hits. They were only getting started.

The Twins scored five-plus runs and tallied 10-plus hits in each of their next seven games, en route to a 12-game winning streak and 15-2 stretch that brings us to today. During these 17 games, Twins hitters have slashed .292/.358/.505 with a 20.0% K-rate that ranks fifth-lowest in the majors.

The Twins went from ranking 28th in MLB with a 76 wRC+ through 20 games (ahead of only the White Sox and Marlins) to second in MLB with a 142 wRC+ (behind only the Dodgers) since.

 

And what's most exciting is that this offense, seemingly driven by newfound confidence and belief (possibly sausage-influenced), has maintained its drastic level of improvement as the difficulty level has grown steeply. Bashing the White Sox and Angels pitching staffs is one thing, but the success they've been able to achieve in their past two series has been beyond encouraging and convincing. The Red Sox and Mariners came to Target Field with two of the best-performing staffs in the league and the Twins took it to them, winning five of seven.

Thursday's game was perhaps the most impressive of the season for the Minnesota lineup, which jumped all over ERA leader Logan Gilbert for five runs in an explosive first inning, and kept the pressure applied on the way to an 11-1 blowout. Thinking back to a few short weeks ago when the Twins offense was routinely being shut down night after night by whatever random opposing starter happened to take the mound, it felt almost incomprehensible to see this unfold.

We've certainly seen this type of thing before from the Twins offense, which scuffled throughout most of the first half in 2023 before turning a corner around the All-Star break, and emerging as one of the league's better units in the second half. By then, the team had already wasted a lot of time and they had to race to get to 87 wins. Carlos Correa reflected on this experience and how important it was to avoid a redux.

“We've just got to figure out sooner or later," Correa said in early April, amidst the team's slow start. "We don't want to be here half a season trying to figure out when we know we're capable of doing it a lot earlier."

Right now, it's looking like the hitting coach David Popkins and the Twins figured it out a lot earlier. This offense shows no resemblance to the lifeless bunch we saw through 20 games, and they never had a stretch like this in the first half last year. They need to prove that they can avoid reverting or regressing too starkly, but for now, they've blossomed into what the front office envisioned: one of the most potent and intimidating lineups in baseball.

They'll look to keep it going as they head into Toronto to face a Blue Jays lineup that has been falling well short of expectations and, unlike the Twins, has yet to snap out of it.

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[jmlease1]

There was always plenty of hitting talent on this roster. early on, everyone was going bad at the same time, it seemed, which is always an anomaly. 

I'm particularly impressed with Max Kepler and Ryan Jeffers. Kepler was great in the second half last season, but when he struggled early you had to wonder if the old bad habits were back. but he really turned it around since coming back from the bruised knee and he's absolutely crushing the ball. Jeffers has been fantastic all season and he's a monster threat at all times now. It's hard to keep him out of the lineup.

There are some guys that are probably playing over their heads a bit...but there are also a few that are underperforming too, so it evens out.

No complaints about it continuing! be nice to take a little pressure off the pitching staff consistently.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Great article!  These are the offensive statistics that I have been curious about but have been too lazy to investigate.  It would be less anxiety inducing if they could be a little more consistent.  The high to low roller coaster is enough to make me drink (more)!  They have certainly been a lot of fun to watch the past couple of weeks though.  Go Twins!

[Doctor Gast]

Early into the slump fans were blaming the line-up that we needed players with more thump. Others were blaming Pohlads for not spending the money to go get those thumpers. Others were blaming the coaches that they needed to be fired as soon as possible. Some said no to all of them & blamed the hitting approach. When Baldelli recognized the problem & said we need to change our approach is when things started to turn around. Baldelli couldn't resend everyone down to Ft. Myers for a mini spring training. Playing CWS & LAA was the next best thing for the team to straighten out their swing. Give credit to Baldelli for recognizing the problem, coaches for implementing the new approach & players eagerness to change & put it into practice. 

Now that we have gotten that resolved, when Lewis returns well be ready to face the toughest teams. With another postseason SP we can go far.

[Shaitan]

So why does this happen?

I think the cold weather angle is lazy and somewhat stereotype based. If the team can't hit in the cold, what about October/November when it REALLY counts?

Is modern Spring Training like the NFL Training Camp, aka the players take it too easy and you don't get real action 'til May?

Why are they slow to come around? Would love thoughts here.

Unlike the NFL, the team still has 130+ games to balance the scales.

Personally I love the MLB marathon. But every time they add more postseason games I kind of think they should subtract regular season games elsewhere.

[Craig Arko]

9 minutes ago, Shaitan said:

So why does this happen?

I think the cold weather angle is lazy and somewhat stereotype based. If the team can't hit in the cold, what about October/November when it REALLY counts?

Is modern Spring Training like the NFL Training Camp, aka the players take it too easy and you don't get real action 'til May?

Why are they slow to come around? Would love thoughts here.

Unlike the NFL, the team still has 130+ games to balance the scales.

Personally I love the MLB marathon. But every time they add more postseason games I kind of think they should subtract regular season games elsewhere.

This is how random variables work.

[DocBauer]

Referencing @jmlease1, a couple guys may have been batting above their expected levels of late, but some aren't yet at expected levels, so it evens out.

Now, basically, no Lewisbyet this year, a shadow wearing Wallner's jersey/name/number, Correa gone for a couple of weeks when he was off to a good start, and Kepler gone with a bad knee for a time as well. And a pretty much league average Buxton so far.

And yet, they have been raking. And they've been doing so while behind almost any expected/projected HR pace. They've been doing it as a team, while previously they were losing as a team.

Some of the names have changed...Larnach instead of Wallner at the moment for example...but this club was built to be a good offensive team. There will be highs and lows for everyone, some progression and regression, but there's also little reason to not believe they will remain one of the better offenses in the league.

[bean5302]

Looking at the Twins' schedule and runs produced over their 37 games.
4, 5, 0, 2, 7, 2, 1, 2, 3, 3, 2, 11, 4, 3, 4, 3, 2, 4, 4, 1, 7, 6, 6, 6, 5, 16, 11, 3, 6, 10, 5, 3, 2, 3, 6, 6, 11
If you assume games with less than 4 runs is a loss, 4 runs is 50/50, and more than 4 runs is a win, the Twins would be 19-18 on the year.
First 10 games 29 runs (2.9 runs), 3-7
Next 10 games 38 runs (3.8 runs), 3-7
Next 10 games 71 runs (7.1 runs), 9-1
Next 7 games 36 runs (5.2 runs), 4-3

Mean: 4.43 runs per game 
Median: 4.00 runs per game
Mode: 3.00 runs per game

It's not as wild as last year, but the most commonly scored number of runs in a game is still 3. The big breakout games are still responsible for a lot of the actual run production on the team. Luckily, the pitching has been better than I anticipated it would be allowing the Twins to win a couple extras.

The offense just looks like it's springing back thanks to Castro, Farmer, Santana, etc bouncing back from horrible slumps. It's good news they're not all looking permanently cooked like Margot.

[Jocko87]

Mostly.

[Fat Calvin]

And now we've got Wallner coming alive in St. Paul, and Lewis chomping at the bit to start his rehab playing.  And we've got a very good center fielder in AAA waiting for an opportunity.  Offensively and defensively, things are really looking up.  We're still thin at starting pitching, but Zebby and Morris are rising.  So, let's enjoy these halcyon days in May.  Go Twins!

[D.C Twins]

Jeffers and Keplers and Larnachs..... Oh My! (honorable mention Miranda and Castro) 

[JD-TWINS]

Watched the game tonight and couldn’t wait for Kikuchi to get out of the game so we could bring a barrage of LH hitters lead by Kepler. Correa doubled in the 9th to get into scoring position and Castro went to the left side & got him to 3rd with a ground ball, two outs. Kepler to Pinch Hit ……,Toronto counters with a lefty. Kepler then gets ANOTHER 2 out RBI & it turns out to be the critical insurance run.

Kepler has been waaay clutch! He extended his hits streak to 12 games as well. He’s hitting .444 since returning from injury. Just huge for the Team’s momentum continuing over these past 18 games!

Hoping Wallner and Lewis are back and ready by first week of June to support the effort.

Julien & Kirilloff need to get a pulse going soon - need those two!!

Last - gotta admit I was wrong about Miranda. Had low to no expectations from him for this year. He doesn’t have much pop in his bat but his bat to ball skills sure are playing well and they seem to be consistent. Big RBI tonight on a ground ball through the right side - good piece of hitting.

[JD-TWINS]

BTW, when are they going to fire the hitting coach that was poisoning the entire team? ………except Jeffers & Kirilloff …….they were ignoring him. This was routine banter 3 weeks ago. Players gotta play and figure it out. Kepler started 1-20……..he’s 24-54 since he’s come back. Larnach has been hitting since his call up. Castro was terrible for a period and recently had a 10 game hit streak.

Glad they’ve come around ……..up to a tie for 7th in baseball for HR’s and up to .242 BA from .195 BA 3 weeks ago. Nice shift!

[Karbo]

The big adjustments they made IMO is hitting to all fields, leveling out the swing plane instead of swinging for the fences, and a better 2 strike approach. Jeffers and Kepler are prime examples.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

A year ago, I couldn’t have imagined a scenario where the Twins extended Kepler.

now?

I still can’t imagine, but for the exact opposite reason….

[Linus]

Obviously I have no idea if there has been a formal change to the clubs hitting philosophy. I did notice several players choking up with two strikes. Jeffers is one of them and he has been really tough with two strikes lately. 

[JD-TWINS]

Larnach should be getting lots of credit - Team was desperate when Wallner didn’t show up!! Larnach had been out hurt ….,,,he has a quiet stance with a real heir of confidence going. Sweet production! Hope it holds up!!!

Kepler - can’t say enough…… .444 since his return.

Jeffers - really locked in with his approach. “2 strike, short stroke Ryan” may be how he should hit all the time? Saw a breakdown in last couple days on MLB and he spreads out and doesn’t lift his foot nearly as much with 2 strikes. His average is higher and he has similar power with 2 strikes. Odd! Something he should consider? Too aggressive last night for a guy that looks really, really good after he see 3-4 pitches in an at bat.

I generally support Baldelli in everything he does because it is at least thoughtful. He has a reason - maybe don’t agree 100% but he’s nearly always got a good argument & nobody has a crystal ball. HOWEVER, what the hell is Ryan Jeffers doing batting lead off? Castro batting 3rd? ……..tried to get over it last night but can’t just bat guys in a descending order of OPS or whatever. Castro is a switch hitting speed guy and Jeffers is around top 10 in baseball in RBI. Can’t justify it at all.

That said, I do not believe for one second that the Team’s hitting philosophy changed on April 20 to a level swing, let’s make contact approach. “Barreling the ball” is, and always has been the mantra. They are just getting it done! The coaching doesn’t deserve any more credit now than they deserved blame previous to April 20. Can’t just flip a switch and coach up guy’s ability to hit. THEY, can start executing more than one guy at a time though……that’s been the genesis of the success over last 20 games.

[JD-TWINS]

June 15 line-up for kicks v. Right handed pitching:

Julien - Buxton - Kepler - Lewis - Jeffers - Correa - Larnach - Castro - Miranda

Kirilloff - Santana - Farmer - Vazquez on the bench………..Wallner may squeeze in somehow? 

This line-up is exciting with guys just playing to their norms!!

[Althebum82]

Yeah, I really believed that Castro was a one season wonder.  Having a no-hitting defensively challenged shortstop fill in for Correa was making things look awfully dismal.  Yeah, Farmer was hitting even worse, but I was confused as to why he was playing third instead of shortstop when historically he has been a better (and more experienced) defensive option at short.  

One has to almost wonder if Castro doesn't get a little extra mojo from moving around to different positions.  That doesn't really make sense but Correa's return has correlated well with Castro's offensive resurgence.

Miranda and Larnach's performances are close to breathtaking compared to expectations.  

Bottom line.....man, it's fun to watch a team that can score runs, and by means other than setting MLB home run records for team total.  We are seeing groundouts score guys from third, sacrifice flies, and taking advantage of opponent defensive mental and actual physical errors routinely again.  Suppose that's what happens when the strikeout numbers return to the mean a little bit?

[JD-TWINS]

48 minutes ago, Althebum82 said:

Yeah, I really believed that Castro was a one season wonder.  Having a no-hitting defensively challenged shortstop fill in for Correa was making things look awfully dismal.  Yeah, Farmer was hitting even worse, but I was confused as to why he was playing third instead of shortstop when historically he has been a better (and more experienced) defensive option at short.  

One has to almost wonder if Castro doesn't get a little extra mojo from moving around to different positions.  That doesn't really make sense but Correa's return has correlated well with Castro's offensive resurgence.

Miranda and Larnach's performances are close to breathtaking compared to expectations.  

Bottom line.....man, it's fun to watch a team that can score runs, and by means other than setting MLB home run records for team total.  We are seeing groundouts score guys from third, sacrifice flies, and taking advantage of opponent defensive mental and actual physical errors routinely again.  Suppose that's what happens when the strikeout numbers return to the mean a little bit?

Castro had a solid year last year - really good compared to his history. I was hopeful - expecting something similar - he’s exceeded that so far.

Maybe he’s more relaxed not having to play SS? He won’t get much time from here on out at 3B with Lewis back in 3-4 weeks. To me, he’s a solid parallel to Buxton in CF! Should see 600 innings out there this year.

He’s really hitting well right handed this year. He’s a better option in LF against left handed pitching v. Martin, if Buxton plays CF.