What are the Twins Expecting from Trevor Larnach?

[Eris]

Every time Larnach seems to be getting things together he gets hurt and his hitting falls apart. I hope he does better this time as the Twins need several players to step up. I do think it is important not to judge a player while they are hurt, but at some point you are a player who is not productive enough to contribute. 
 

if Larnach bombs, this would be the 3rd hitter who were first round picks that didn’t make it. 

[nicksaviking]

8 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

182

.286

.273

.558

 What do we expect form Larnach when this is his slash line in the minors?

Keirsey and Fajardo what have made more sense for me.

The Twins probably should have moved Larnach for someone more useful a couple years ago when he had value, so I'm up for giving him one more audition to see if anything can be recouped, but I agree with this. Draft position should have little to do with the callup hierarchy. It should be next to meaningless in terms of prospect evaluations a couple of years after the player is in pro ball. 

[USAFChief]

2 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

182

.286

.273

.558

 What do we expect form Larnach when this is his slash line in the minors?

Keirsey and Fajardo what have made more sense for me.

That slash line comes in 3 games, 14 PAs.

 

He certainly might need more time to get his timing down, but basing his callup (or non-callup) on a 14 PA slash line is ... iffy.

[IndianaTwin]

Larnach is out of options, right? So in other words, they pretty much have to try him sometime this year or risk losing him.* I suppose it makes some sense to give him a little more time in the minors to get his current mojo together, but I'm not sure that he's going to "learn" anything new (i.e., how to strike out less) with more minor league time. His OPS is .838 in the minors and has been at least .822 at every level of the minors. 

Given that, and that Wallner is really struggling, they might as well make the switch and let Larnach have at it now. If he succeeds, great. If he struggles, he's probably still better than where Wallner has been this year, and it gives Wallner the chance for the reset. And if he stinks at this year's Wallner level, it's better to find that out sooner rather than later. 

 

*I get that some might not see much risk in losing him. That's not my point. My point is that if he's going to get another chance, now's as good of a time as any, given the factors above. 

[Danchat]

2 hours ago, Schmoeman5 said:

Here's what's funny. When he was sent down last year he was leading the team in RBIs so it wasn't just he was struggling, but he had options. Did he deserve to get sent down last year? Less than Wallner does now. Wallner has done nothing. Right now he has too many people in his ear. The best thing he can do is go down and get some confidence. 

As nicksaviking already stated, Larnach seems to be a hot-and-cold hitter. The 100 PAs before he was demoted he was hitting .189 with a .677 OPS. When he's hot, he is great at driving in runs - which makes it all the more frustrating that he can't maintain that for longer. And despite his profile he doesn't hit for as much power as he should.

[jimbo92107]

The Twins have drafted so many guys that were sooo talented as hitters, yet somehow the vast majority of them floundered and fizzled against the upper ranges of pitching, both AAA and MLB. 

I just can't relate to so much failure at the plate. When I was playing, hitting was easy. I mashed line drives all the time. I remember being a good hitter all the way from 3rd to 5th grade. If I hadn't broken my thumb, I might have played pretty good junior high ball. I even hit a home run once, in summer league, with a magnesium bat. Wow, did that thing go like a rocket. They told me it rolled under the 3rd base bench in the next field. A kid picked it up, then threw it to the left fielder, who turned and fired it to their shortstop, who turned and fired it home. I beat the throw by about two steps. 

Moral: Don't ever jog around the bases.

[stringer bell]

47 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

182

.286

.273

.558

 What do we expect form Larnach when this is his slash line in the minors?

Keirsey and Fajardo what have made more sense for me.

Really? What, 11 at-bats?

[wipster]

Twins are down 3-0, top of the 3rd. Game over! Prove me wrong!!

 

[mikelink45]

5 hours ago, USAFChief said:

That slash line comes in 3 games, 14 PAs.

 

He certainly might need more time to get his timing down, but basing his callup (or non-callup) on a 14 PA slash line is ... iffy.

That is all we have.  Maybe we should have waited until he had a bigger sample

 

[mikelink45]

5 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Really? What, 11 at-bats?

thats all he has.  What else can you use to judge?

[Danchat]

55 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

thats all he has.  What else can you use to judge?

His career stats?

Plenty of AAAA guys like Fajardo have raked in AAA and then contributed nothing in the majors (Tim Beckham, anyone?). Not to mention he's at AAA for the first time and hitting sub .650 OPS. Incredibly tiny sample sizes aside, Larnach is on the 40 man and with so many injured guys clogging the roster up, it is logical to give him another chance over a AAAA player. 

[mikelink45]

19 minutes ago, Danchat said:

His career stats?

Plenty of AAAA guys like Fajardo have raked in AAA and then contributed nothing in the majors (Tim Beckham, anyone?). Not to mention he's at AAA for the first time and hitting sub .650 OPS. Incredibly tiny sample sizes aside, Larnach is on the 40 man and with so many injured guys clogging the roster up, it is logical to give him another chance over a AAAA player. 

Is Larnach more than AAAA player?  I hope he is but I haven't seen it

[bean5302]

8 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Ok? And? Are you suggesting there isn't a book out on Wallner that you can beat him in and soft down and away? Because that's what every pitcher he faces is doing to him. I have no idea what you're trying to argue with me about.

Trevor Larnach struggles with MLB off-speed pitches so MLB pitchers throw him league leading numbers of off-speed pitches and he struggles. If he doesn't figure that out he won't have a successful MLB career.

Matt Wallner struggles with MLB pitches in and down so MLB pitchers throw him an extreme number of pitches in and down and he struggles. If he doesn't figure that out he won't have a successful MLB career.

Those are my statements. I don't know why you're telling me Larnach and Wallner aren't similar players when I didn't say they were, and I'm not sure why you're bringing up Mike Trout. Matt Wallner has massive holes in his swing and they're being exploited at a staggering rate right now. Trevor Larnach has a real weakness recognizing and hitting off-speed pitches and it's been exploited for years now. If you'd like to dispute those statements feel free. Not sure why you're arguing anything else when that's all I'm saying.

Larnach and Wallner are not in similar spots. Wallner is younger, has more options, and was one of the best hitters in baseball last year. Larnach is older, with fewer options, and far more plate appearances so he's a known quantity as a roughly MLB average or slightly below average hitter. They're in utterly different spots in their career. Larnach is no longer a prospect, is no longer viewed as a potential quality MLB regular, and he no longer has significant trade value of any sort. Baseballtradevalues has Matt Wallner, Brooks Lee, Bailey Ober, and Emmanuel Rodriguez in the same trade value range right now because of Wallner's outstanding 2023 and the upside which comes along with him.

Mike Trout has a similar xwOBA heat map as Wallner had in 2023. Wallner does not have a massive hole in his swing, it's an average sized weakness. Virtually every hitter is going to struggle at driving pitches well outside the strike zone where it's more about swing/take than "holes in the swing," and  it's totally normal for a hitter to struggle to drive pitches in 3 sections of the 9 section strike zone. There are scouting reports out on how to beat Mike Trout, but it just hasn't worked because of 3 reasons.
1. Trout crushes pitches over a huge amount of the strike zone
2. Trout isn't weak against a bunch of different pitches
3. Trout manages his swing/take well enough.
All of those were true for Wallner last year as well, but Wallner's swing/take this year is terrible (not to mention getting the obvious shaft on some calls with an extremely SSS). I brought Mike Trout into this to crush the "hole in the swing" to exploit nonsense. 

You're right that if Wallner doesn't get out of his own head and stop making such poor swing/take decisions, he won't ever return to 2023 form. I'm all for sending him down to AAA to get his reset in, but there's no reason to believe Wallner won't return to form as a valuable hitter.

Gallo is what an exploitable hole in the swing looks like. 6 of 9 strike zone sectors he couldn't hit last year. 

[Fat Calvin]

12 hours ago, Danchat said:

This is Larnach's fourth major shot at earning a spot with the Twins and staying there. After failing to stick for the first three, I find it doubtful the fourth time is the charm but there is no harm in trying. 

Strike four, you're out!

[Fezig]

What are the Twins Expecting from Trevor Larnach?

Let's start with contact. 

 

[chpettit19]

7 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Larnach and Wallner are not in similar spots. Wallner is younger, has more options, and was one of the best hitters in baseball last year. Larnach is older, with fewer options, and far more plate appearances so he's a known quantity as a roughly MLB average or slightly below average hitter. They're in utterly different spots in their career. Larnach is no longer a prospect, is no longer viewed as a potential quality MLB regular, and he no longer has significant trade value of any sort. Baseballtradevalues has Matt Wallner, Brooks Lee, Bailey Ober, and Emmanuel Rodriguez in the same trade value range right now because of Wallner's outstanding 2023 and the upside which comes along with him.

Mike Trout has a similar xwOBA heat map as Wallner had in 2023. Wallner does not have a massive hole in his swing, it's an average sized weakness. Virtually every hitter is going to struggle at driving pitches well outside the strike zone where it's more about swing/take than "holes in the swing," and  it's totally normal for a hitter to struggle to drive pitches in 3 sections of the 9 section strike zone. There are scouting reports out on how to beat Mike Trout, but it just hasn't worked because of 3 reasons.
1. Trout crushes pitches over a huge amount of the strike zone
2. Trout isn't weak against a bunch of different pitches
3. Trout manages his swing/take well enough.
All of those were true for Wallner last year as well, but Wallner's swing/take this year is terrible (not to mention getting the obvious shaft on some calls with an extremely SSS). I brought Mike Trout into this to crush the "hole in the swing" to exploit nonsense. 

You're right that if Wallner doesn't get out of his own head and stop making such poor swing/take decisions, he won't ever return to 2023 form. I'm all for sending him down to AAA to get his reset in, but there's no reason to believe Wallner won't return to form as a valuable hitter.

Gallo is what an exploitable hole in the swing looks like. 6 of 9 strike zone sectors he couldn't hit last year. 

Younger? Matt Wallner is 289 days younger than Trevor Larnach. I know you're not going to try to argue that 289 days is a significant age difference.

Options? Yes, he does have more options and that's why I mentioned it in my very first post that he'd have more time to figure things out with the Twins because they can send him up and down.

.283/.390/.447/.837 123 OPS+ in 287 PAs at age 22. 
.231/.352/.461/.813 126 OPS+ in 352 PAs at ages 24-26.

First guy is Logan Morrison. Second is Wallner. Guys have very good success early in their careers before the league figures them out and it's up to them to adjust back. It happens all the time. A scorching hot 254 PAs in 2023 doesn't make him Mike Trout. Houston put out the Wallner blueprint in the postseason last year. Can't hit in. Can't hit down. Especially soft down and away.

When your argument is "well if he can just be Mike Trout in the rest of the zone he's ok" I'm going to go ahead and stick with he has an exploitable hole that has been exploited to the tune of a 51.5% strikeout rate and he's going to need to make an adjustment if he wants to sustain a successful MLB career.

A 36.3% whiff rate and 31.5% k rate in his 254 PAs last year is reason to doubt he can maintain his 140 OPS+ production, especially once the league gets the blueprint on how to get him out. Which they have. A 68.6% zone contact rate compared to the league average of 82% is a reason to doubt. For reference, Mike Trout's zone contact rate is 83.9%. It's why he can have a hole at the top of the zone and still dominate. Because when he swings at his pitches he makes contact. Really, really good contact. Matt Wallner does not. Matt Wallner swings and misses a lot.

Matt Wallner has very real adjustments he's going to need to make if he's going to succeed at the major league level.