The Table Setter, February 19: The Outfield Movement

[stringer bell]

2 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

Were the TC even interested in Grichuk cause he seems like what they need being RH with decent numbers and $2 mil.

Kind of Kyle Garlick (not lite, but heavy) at this point in his career.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

10 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Hopefully 100 games in cf, with regular rest, so he can be ready to go come playoff time. But having cf insurance is a good thing.

If you can add a star level bat, that’s a good thing.

And it does certainly make it easier then to make other players available in trade right?

I'm sure that the reason he hasn't been signed yet is that no one trusts the situation.  He went from a tremendous debut and MVP year with the Dodgers to being DFA'd after two years of being mostly unplayable, only to bounce back and have a good year with the Cubs.  One or two years?  Sure.  A contract of five or more years that he and Boras are seeking?  No way.  Remember how we all complained about Kepler's down couple of years?  They were a LOT better than Bellinger's down years. Kepler had OPS+ in the 90's.  Bellinger had an 81 OPS+ and a 44 OPS+ (!).  That's a little scary. 

[chpettit19]

5 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

I'm sure that the reason he hasn't been signed yet is that no one trusts the situation.  He went from a tremendous debut and MVP year with the Dodgers to being DFA'd after two years of being mostly unplayable, only to bounce back and have a good year with the Cubs.  One or two years?  Sure.  A contract of five or more years that he and Boras are seeking?  No way.  Remember how we all complained about Kepler's down couple of years?  They were a LOT better than Bellinger's down years. Kepler had OPS+ in the 90's.  Bellinger had an 81 OPS+ and a 44 OPS+ (!).  That's a little scary. 

Not a huge difference, but he wasn't DFA'd, he was non-tendered. He was never sent through waivers, he just didn't get tendered an arbitration offer in his last year of availability because he would've been in the 20+ range and they didn't think he was worth that. He still got 17.5 mil for 1 season with the Cubs. I fully agree that he isn't signed because teams don't trust him for the long-term deal he wants, but he was never DFA'd, and still got a huge amount on his 1 year deal last year.

[DocBauer]

Grichuk wasn't one of my top choices, and didn't have a great year last season, but still had a 103OPS+. That's a potentially useful bat to PH and give Wallner or Kepler an off day here and there, especially against LHP. And he only cost $2M!

There is room and need on this team for a RH OF and it shouldn't cost much. And opportunity remains. To not spend a few $M to fill a hole would be miscarriage of that opportunity. 

[tony&rodney]

3 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Varland will not be able to come close to start 25 games.

Why not? Varland is about as physical as a pitcher comes, he has thrown 150 innings in the last two years, and just needs the opportunity. Varland is actually the answer if the Twins cannot add Kirby, Gilbert, or Luzardo. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

3 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Not a huge difference, but he wasn't DFA'd, he was non-tendered. He was never sent through waivers, he just didn't get tendered an arbitration offer in his last year of availability because he would've been in the 20+ range and they didn't think he was worth that. He still got 17.5 mil for 1 season with the Cubs. I fully agree that he isn't signed because teams don't trust him for the long-term deal he wants, but he was never DFA'd, and still got a huge amount on his 1 year deal last year.

Oops.  You’re right.  My bad.  He was non-tendered and managed to do well for himself on a one year contract.  That doesn’t change the fact that I don’t want to be the one writing his paycheck for five plus years.  One year with an option?  Sure.  More than that? There are many better investments, maybe even some extensions for a couple of their pre-arbitration players.  

[tony&rodney]

Bellinger is a beast if fully healthy and his magic wand is working. Speed, power, defense, patience, youth - he has it all. He wants the big contract, has had a few really bad injuries that may be pinned on injuries, and makes front office types nervous. Do the Twins have the nerves to sign him to a Correa type three year deal? As nice as that could be, I doubt it. Any contract would move the Twins right back to around $160 million. Now, wouldn't that be a sweet signing? Not my dough .... do it.

[chpettit19]

26 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

Oops.  You’re right.  My bad.  He was non-tendered and managed to do well for himself on a one year contract.  That doesn’t change the fact that I don’t want to be the one writing his paycheck for five plus years.  One year with an option?  Sure.  More than that? There are many better investments, maybe even some extensions for a couple of their pre-arbitration players.  

I can certainly understand why teams are nervous about a long-term deal for him, 100%. I'd love him on a deal similar to Correa's first one here. I think he would take this team from "good enough to win a horrid central" to "legit playoff contender." I don't at all expect him to sign here. Don't even expect them to make him a "real" offer. But I'd certainly take him on a 3 year deal, opt outs or not.

[Fatbat]

Give me Buxton in CF most days. He is pain free and healthy. IF he stays that way, any number of other guys can regress and it wont matter. We will have a monster season. I’m calling the over 130 games in CF. 
C4 will get his 140 at SS. 
We only need more pitching!! (always) 

we got a few rookies that will likely step into important roles so we got most everything covered. Time to play ball!!
 

[jorgenswest]

The Twins don’t have space for a right handed outfielder. They chose their short side platoon bats in Santana and Farmer. No team has space for three. I would have chosen a right handed corner outfield bat over either Farmer or Santana but the Twins chose otherwise,

They need another middle of the order bat against right handed starting pitching that they will see about 3/4 of the time. Some might argue Larnach is that bat. That is fine but then he needs a spot of the roster. There isn’t one if they add a third short side platoon bat to the team.

[nicksaviking]

Don't sweat it, when the Twins trade for Jesus Luzardo or Braxton Garrett, the Marlins will make the Twins take back Avisail Garcia.

RH outfielder problem solved, and you are all oh so very welcome. 

Looks like he hit a triple last year. That's really the best thing I can say about him at this point.

[Doctor Gast]

49 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Why not? Varland is about as physical as a pitcher comes, he has thrown 150 innings in the last two years, and just needs the opportunity. Varland is actually the answer if the Twins cannot add Kirby, Gilbert, or Luzardo. 

Yes, Varland is sturdy but as you know there is no comparison from minor leagues to MLB. Because of the level of play an SP has to endure, the added physical effort you tend to throw harder, that extra adrenalin, the extra mental effort, the emotional & stress. All take a toll on a body.

In Ober's sophomore season, he started out in the rotation but I'd wager that Varland will pass the # of games that Ober in his sophomore season pitched. But not 25 games, which is being much too optimistic.

[rv78]

I say get MAT. We need his .220 BA and .278 OBP bat in the lineup. We don't have anyone in AAA that is nearly that good.

[Brandon]

8 hours ago, MGX said:

Bellinger would be an amazing fit for the Twins. If they could get him on a contract structured similar to Correa's original contract that would be perfect.

All this talk about RH OF is missing the point - Our position player group already looks good, adding another quality bat (either LH or RH) could give us one of the best groups in the league. If you added Bellinger to our current position player group with the depth in our bullpen & a solid starting staff that would be a team that has a chance to do some damage.

Of course actually signing him is another thing entirely, but they should absolutely be trying to sign him. 

Our projected lineup VS LHP has 8 of 9 players batting RH. Kepler is the only LH bat projected to play bs LHP. Why is there such concern with adding a RH bat? 

 

More than Bellinger, Snell would be an even better fit if we can just squeeze his contract into the budget without making too many adjustments.  It can work!  We can do this!  It would be a step up from Gray as Snell led the National League in ERA.  

[jmlease1]

I'm guessing that MAT's agent is seriously considering holding to see if there's a significant injury in spring training that will improve his market at this point?

It's interesting to see what ends up happening for the "Boras Four" and whether they're able to find the contracts they want with the teams they prefer. Sometimes the market doesn't give you what you want, even for Boras. I think the Twins are more than comfortable being the safe landing for one of these guys on a pillow contract (a Correa-type deal where it's "officially" 3 years, but likely to be a 1 year because of an opt-out) and if they spent the kind of money needed to get it done it would certainly help turn things around from a PR standpoint.

Not really holding out hope, though.

I think Boras was holding on these guys on the belief that settling the Diamond bankruptcy would open up the market more and get multiple teams bidding. But there's a real possibility that those same teams who were in payroll-cutting mode stay that way and pocket the cash, much like the Twins seem to be doing. I mean, the poor billionaires took a hit during the pandemic year, won't anyone think of their bottom line?!? (#sarcasm)

[DJL44]

16 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Yes, Varland is sturdy but as you know there is no comparison from minor leagues to MLB. Because of the level of play an SP has to endure, the added physical effort you tend to throw harder, that extra adrenalin, the extra mental effort, the emotional & stress. All take a toll on a body.

This is nonsense. Players in the minor leagues are competing at their highest athletic ability. Nobody is coasting in the minors and the radar guns will prove the pitchers are throwing just as hard.

[Major League Ready]

40 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

I'm guessing that MAT's agent is seriously considering holding to see if there's a significant injury in spring training that will improve his market at this point?

It's interesting to see what ends up happening for the "Boras Four" and whether they're able to find the contracts they want with the teams they prefer. Sometimes the market doesn't give you what you want, even for Boras. I think the Twins are more than comfortable being the safe landing for one of these guys on a pillow contract (a Correa-type deal where it's "officially" 3 years, but likely to be a 1 year because of an opt-out) and if they spent the kind of money needed to get it done it would certainly help turn things around from a PR standpoint.

Not really holding out hope, though.

I think Boras was holding on these guys on the belief that settling the Diamond bankruptcy would open up the market more and get multiple teams bidding. But there's a real possibility that those same teams who were in payroll-cutting mode stay that way and pocket the cash, much like the Twins seem to be doing. I mean, the poor billionaires took a hit during the pandemic year, won't anyone think of their bottom line?!? (#sarcasm)

How much do you think they are pocketing?  In other words, how much did revenue go down as compared to payroll?

[jorgenswest]

5 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

This is nonsense. Players in the minor leagues are competing at their highest athletic ability. Nobody is coasting in the minors and the radar guns will prove the pitchers are throwing just as hard.

Wouldn’t facing major league batters lead to many more high stress at bats and innings? Stress in the sense that the at bats would go longer. Finishing innings would take more pitches. 

[DJL44]

2 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Wouldn’t facing major league batters lead to many more high stress at bats and innings? Stress in the sense that the at bats would go longer. Finishing innings would take more pitches. 

They're (generally) not throwing fewer pitches in the minor leagues because the team wants to develop them to last 100 pitches in the big leagues. They would usually get more innings out of the same number of pitches. Varland pitched the 6th inning a lot more often in St. Paul than he did in Minneapolis.

[Doctor Gast]

47 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

This is nonsense. Players in the minor leagues are competing at their highest athletic ability. Nobody is coasting in the minors and the radar guns will prove the pitchers are throwing just as hard.

I never said minor leaguers are coasting. I said there's a much higher level at the MLB for SPs with additional physical, mental & emotional baggage. Therefore minor-league stats more often don't translate into MLB stats right away. And many successful minor leaguers can't make that transition.

[jmlease1]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

How much do you think they are pocketing?  In other words, how much did revenue go down as compared to payroll?

It's hard to say, since MLB teams (with the exception of Atlanta) are notorious about not letting anyone see their books. So while TV revenue probably went down 1`5-20% for the Twins we have no idea where any of the other revenue sources are sitting. But just based on tv revenue, we're looking at a drop of $10-15M and a payroll reduction of $25M. Considering the Twins keep saying roughly 50% of revenue goes towards team payroll...ownership might be pocketing anywhere from $10-20M back to "the bottom line".

I've been in the "as long as payroll is in the middle of the pack, I'm not going to complain too much" group. I don't expect them to have a top 5 payroll or even top 10. But I also don't expect them to be drifting back down to the 20's either. We're $35M below league average according to Spotrack, $24M below if you only consider 26-man rosters. The Pohlads can do better and should do better. Signing one of the "Boras Four" would make a difference.

They paid $36M for the team, it's worth at least $1.4B right now, and they've had a lot of years where they made money off the club. They got an amazing new stadium paid for mostly by tax payers, and the team is build to contend right now. Pohlads deserve all the stick they're going to get for this if they don't make a significant move.

not that they'll care: they'll still be insanely rich.

[Major League Ready]

40 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

It's hard to say, since MLB teams (with the exception of Atlanta) are notorious about not letting anyone see their books. So while TV revenue probably went down 1`5-20% for the Twins we have no idea where any of the other revenue sources are sitting. But just based on tv revenue, we're looking at a drop of $10-15M and a payroll reduction of $25M. Considering the Twins keep saying roughly 50% of revenue goes towards team payroll...ownership might be pocketing anywhere from $10-20M back to "the bottom line".

I've been in the "as long as payroll is in the middle of the pack, I'm not going to complain too much" group. I don't expect them to have a top 5 payroll or even top 10. But I also don't expect them to be drifting back down to the 20's either. We're $35M below league average according to Spotrack, $24M below if you only consider 26-man rosters. The Pohlads can do better and should do better. Signing one of the "Boras Four" would make a difference.

They paid $36M for the team, it's worth at least $1.4B right now, and they've had a lot of years where they made money off the club. They got an amazing new stadium paid for mostly by tax payers, and the team is build to contend right now. Pohlads deserve all the stick they're going to get for this if they don't make a significant move.

not that they'll care: they'll still be insanely rich.

I don't want to debate the multitude of things brought up here.  My only question was how much revenue went down from last year.  I seriously doubt they budgeted based on getting 85-90% of the previous TV deal and You ignored the $30M of BAM.  It would have been quite reasonable had they forecasted $50M less in revenue.  Contrary to popular belief, that $50M is not covered by reducing revenue by $25M.   

[Whitey333]

People still counting on Buxton?  Get real.  He's only played 1 full season out of 8.  The only thing you can count on with Buxton is he will spend a fair amount of time on the injured list.  

[jmlease1]

13 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

I don't want to debate the multitude of things brought up here.  My only question was how much revenue went down from last year.  I seriously doubt they budgeted based on getting 85-90% of the previous TV deal and You ignored the $30M of BAM.  It would have been quite reasonable had they forecasted $50M less in revenue.  Contrary to popular belief, that $50M is not covered by reducing revenue by $25M.   

I'm sure they didn't budget based on getting 85-90% of their TV deal, but they also shouldn't have budgeted based on getting 15% either. Regardless, they're getting 80-90% of last year's TV deal in revenue and one would think they would be at least holding steady if not increasing in tickets, merch, concessions etc after last year's very successful season and a group of highly marketable players.

I'm pretty comfortable saying the Twins are going to make a significant profit this season if they keep their payroll as is. I'll never be able to prove it, of course, and no one will really be able to prove it going the other way either...but the indicators suggest I'm right. And if ever there was a time to take a loss (which they would write off anyways) on a franchise that keeps increasing in value, it's now. If the Twins are valued at $1.4B by Forbes now, they'll be valued at $1.5B or more next year, so it's not like an operating loss really harms ownership, even if there is one. especially measured against the many years where they assuredly turned an operating profit while experiencing substantial growth in valuation.

[Major League Ready]

26 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

I'm sure they didn't budget based on getting 85-90% of their TV deal, but they also shouldn't have budgeted based on getting 15% either. Regardless, they're getting 80-90% of last year's TV deal in revenue and one would think they would be at least holding steady if not increasing in tickets, merch, concessions etc after last year's very successful season and a group of highly marketable players.

I'm pretty comfortable saying the Twins are going to make a significant profit this season if they keep their payroll as is. I'll never be able to prove it, of course, and no one will really be able to prove it going the other way either...but the indicators suggest I'm right. And if ever there was a time to take a loss (which they would write off anyways) on a franchise that keeps increasing in value, it's now. If the Twins are valued at $1.4B by Forbes now, they'll be valued at $1.5B or more next year, so it's not like an operating loss really harms ownership, even if there is one. especially measured against the many years where they assuredly turned an operating profit while experiencing substantial growth in valuation.

I don't want to argue if they shouldn't care about profit.  I am pointing out that you and the writers here just continue to ignore the BAM money as you did here again even though I asked about it specifically.  Many people are not interested in an objective view as you just demonstrated.   Let me try again.  Why should the $30M BAM reduction be ignored?  This kind of burying our heads in the sand BS is absurd.  There are a whole lot of people here who are either uninformed or willing to misrepresent the facts.

[Jeff K]

On 2/19/2024 at 10:21 AM, arby58 said:

He had such poor years in 2021 and 2022 that it makes one pause. Of course, he's still relatively young and he had an incredible MVP season back in 2019. The other issue as I see it is he is another left-handed bat, and the Twins have had their issues with left handed pitching because of so many left-handed bats. Last year, Bellinger actually had a better OPS against LHPs, but that hadn't been the case the prior two years (in 2021, his OPS against LHP was an abysmal .383).

Exactly.  His performance has been far too volatile.  Someone else can take him...please!