The Minnesota Twins Can Help Johan Santana’s Hall of Fame Problem

[Cody Christie]

Baseball writers have struggled to elect starting pitchers to the Hall of Fame in recent election cycles because changing usage patterns require us to alter how starters are judged. Johan Santana was one of the best pitchers of his generation, and the Twins can find ways to help his Hall of Fame case.

On a late summer day under the Metrodome’s Teflon covering, fans watched a master at work. Johan Santana dominated the Texas Rangers over eight shutout innings. He set a Twins team record with 17 strikeouts and allowed only two hits. For the over 36,000 fans in attendance, it was Mozart’s greatest symphony or Michelangelo’s Sistine Chapel. It was the music of a man on the way to a Hall of Fame career.

Baseball is a game that continually evolves, and the starting pitcher position has undergone the most glaring changes in the modern game. Long gone are the pitchers who throw 250 innings in a season, or accumulate 300 wins for their career. No pitchers are likely to reach those feats again, unless and until that evolution takes off in a new direction. That makes evaluating their careers more challenging, when comparing them to other players already enshrined in Cooperstown. Starting pitchers have already had a tough time being elected through the regular BBWAA voting, with only 38 out of 75 (50.7%) current HOF starters elected through this method. Voters need to reconsider the qualifications for a Hall of Fame starting pitcher, or there will be multiple generations with few or no starters elected, and the well-qualified snubs will pile up.

Santana provides a prime example of a starting pitcher whom the BBWAA ignored when he appeared on the ballot. His first and only opportunity to be on the BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot came in 2018. It was a stacked ballot that saw four players elected (Chipper Jones, Vladimir Guerrero, Jim Thome, and Trevor Hoffman) and four future inductees also earning votes (Edgar Martinez, Mike Mussina, Larry Walker, and Fred McGriff). Other polarizing players like Roger Clemens, Barry Bonds, and Curt Schilling were dealing with the ramifications of the Steroid Era and would never earn enough votes to be elected by the writers, but they, too, soaked up significant ballot shares. Santana received 10 votes (2.4%) and finished well short of the 5% minimum to stay on the ballot.

In a perfect world, Santana would have pitched into his late 30s or early 40s, while continuing to be one of the best in the game. That ideal world didn’t play out, and he didn't pitch in a big-league game after age 33. Other players, like Sandy Koufax and Kirby Puckett, were first-ballot electees to the Hall of Fame when their careers were cut short by injury. At the height of his career, there is no doubt that Santana was the best pitcher on the planet, as Koufax had been. His career just didn't end as dramatically or neatly. 

From 2003-2009, few pitchers matched Santana’s dominance on the mound. He was a four-time All-Star, won the pitching Triple Crown, and accumulated three ERA titles. Santana won two Cy Young awards and had a third one stolen from him by Bartolo Colón, because the voters valued wins more than other stats (ERA, WHIP, strikeouts, WAR). Every pitcher with three Cy Youngs has been elected to the Hall, or is expected to be elected when they retire. According to fWAR, Roy Holladay was the lone pitcher to provide more value in the seven years mentioned above than Santana did. However, Santana pitched more innings, had a higher strikeout rate, and posted a lower ERA. 

Santana’s name can’t magically reappear on the BBWAA ballot in future years, so now, he has to wait for the Era Committee (formerly the Veterans Committee) ballot that will include him. There are three ballots a player can be eligible for in this format, including the Contemporary Baseball Era (1980-present), Classic Baseball Era (Before 1980), and Contemporary Baseball Era (non-players since 1980). The next Contemporary Baseball Era Player Ballot is scheduled for December 2025, for inclusion in the Class of 2026. This committee is Santana’s next opportunity to be immortalized in Cooperstown, but getting onto the ballot for that committee's consideration can be as tough a hurdle to clear as getting the votes once there.

So, how can the Twins help Santana over the next 22 months? Players seemed to be helped by having more visibility during spring training or the regular season. Santana has joined the team at spring training in previous years to work with younger players, especially pitchers. He threw out a ceremonial first pitch during last season’s playoffs, which got his name out there on the national stage.

There are also opportunities for Santana to have more television and radio broadcast opportunities for the team or nationally. He has appeared on broadcasts in recent years when he has been in town for the team’s Hall of Fame ceremonies. There is no guarantee that Santana wants more visibility, but it might help his candidacy for the baseball world to see how he has impacted the game since he retired. Santana deserves to be in the Hall of Fame, and the Twins might be able to find subtle ways to increase his chances. They ought to try, anyway.

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Will Santana be enshrined in Cooperstown? How can the Twins help him with his candidacy? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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[Karbo]

He should be in the hall. bad break having his 1st year of eligibility when he did.

[theBOMisthebomb]

Not getting that third Cy Young turned out to be a backbreaker. Too bad. The ideas presented can't hurt, I suppose. Though they really are ridiculous if you think about them. Johan will get into the HOF based on the argument that he was robbed of Cy Young #3 and all with three Cy Young awards are in the HOF. 

The side by side argument that Johan's career is (nearly) equivalent to Sandy Koufax's career needs to get highlighted and gain attention. It hurts the Twins had so little postseason success and Johan has no signature postseason moment.

[Mark G]

I am going to duck as soon as I hit submit comment, because I have a feeling I know the arrows that are going to come my way, but if I were being truly honest, I wouldn't have voted for him either if I was one of the voters.  Some of us have been sending out this warning for a lot of years now about the dangers of taking the games out of the hands of the starters and putting it into an 8 man bullpen.  Very few starters are going to be given the opportunity to put up the numbers necessary to make the hall; the vast majority of pitchers going in in the future are going to be the ones with the most saves, a category voters seem to like these days.  Johan was one of the best while he was healthy, but 139 wins just isn't enough for the hall.  It just isn't.  All the new analytics that try to make players/pitchers better than their stats say they are/were do not appear to impress the people that count - the ones with the votes.  

I get it, today's game is what it is.  When Sonny Gray can finish 2nd in the Cy Young voting with an 8-8 record, I can see where fans begin to think wins and losses have no real bearing anymore, but they do to more people than we think.  It is not the pitchers fault they were not given the opportunity to build the resume they need for the hall, but being dominant for 5-7 innings 30-32 games a year just isn't enough for some of us when it comes to the hall.  The hall still requires, at least to some degree, more than just longevity of years, but longevity in each game, because as much as we all love the strikeouts, burning yourself out in 5-6 innings and 12 years to get them isn't the path to the hall.  We should be listening to the Sonny Gray's of the game when they ask to be able to pitch their games, instead of listening to the analytics guys when their chances have come and gone and they can't get the votes because they don't have the numbers that still matter.  The pitchers who got guys out the 4th time through the lineup are in the hall, not the ones who never saw the 4th time.  

I miss you, Johan, and I sure loved watching you pitch, but I understand the vote.  

[TL]

Threw 134 pitches in a June 1 2012 no-hitter after missing entire prior year with shoulder injury, and was never the same afterward. Wist that decision to leave him in could be reversed. 

https://www.si.com/mlb/2015/06/01/johan-santana-no-hitter-anniversary-new-york-mets-terry-collins

[old nurse]

28 minutes ago, theBOMisthebomb said:

Not getting that third Cy Young turned out to be a backbreaker. Too bad. The ideas presented can't hurt, I suppose. Though they really are ridiculous if you think about them. Johan will get into the HOF based on the argument that he was robbed of Cy Young #3 and all with three Cy Young awards are in the HOF. 

The side by side argument that Johan's career is (nearly) equivalent to Sandy Koufax's career needs to get highlighted and gain attention. It hurts the Twins had so little postseason success and Johan has no signature postseason moment.

Koufax 0.98 ERA playoffs. Series MVP. Santana nowhere near that. 

[Doctor Gast]

I never get tired of watching Johan pitch. Very comparable to Kofax who is a legend. He deserves to be in the HOF. MN should do everything they can to promote Santana to get into the HOF. Not only MN but NYM too, Santana was the 1st Met to throw a no-hitter ahead of other Mets who are in the HOF. 

[Otaknam]

48 minutes ago, Mark G said:

I am going to duck as soon as I hit submit comment, because I have a feeling I know the arrows that are going to come my way, but if I were being truly honest, I wouldn't have voted for him either if I was one of the voters.  Some of us have been sending out this warning for a lot of years now about the dangers of taking the games out of the hands of the starters and putting it into an 8 man bullpen.  Very few starters are going to be given the opportunity to put up the numbers necessary to make the hall; the vast majority of pitchers going in in the future are going to be the ones with the most saves, a category voters seem to like these days.  Johan was one of the best while he was healthy, but 139 wins just isn't enough for the hall.  It just isn't.  All the new analytics that try to make players/pitchers better than their stats say they are/were do not appear to impress the people that count - the ones with the votes.  

I get it, today's game is what it is.  When Sonny Gray can finish 2nd in the Cy Young voting with an 8-8 record, I can see where fans begin to think wins and losses have no real bearing anymore, but they do to more people than we think.  It is not the pitchers fault they were not given the opportunity to build the resume they need for the hall, but being dominant for 5-7 innings 30-32 games a year just isn't enough for some of us when it comes to the hall.  The hall still requires, at least to some degree, more than just longevity of years, but longevity in each game, because as much as we all love the strikeouts, burning yourself out in 5-6 innings and 12 years to get them isn't the path to the hall.  We should be listening to the Sonny Gray's of the game when they ask to be able to pitch their games, instead of listening to the analytics guys when their chances have come and gone and they can't get the votes because they don't have the numbers that still matter.  The pitchers who got guys out the 4th time through the lineup are in the hall, not the ones who never saw the 4th time.  

I miss you, Johan, and I sure loved watching you pitch, but I understand the vote.  
 My thoughts exactly. I was a big fan of Santana, who was dominant for five or six years. Wins are still an important number and 139 is solid but not HOF IMO. If he started for Baldelli his numbers would be even more depressed despite his dominance. The old third time through the lineup blah, blah, blah.

[rv78]

Unfortunately todays game doesn't resemble anything of the past. The game has become too analytic. Every pitch, throw, hit, run, walk, stolen base, HR, error, hotdog and bag of peanuts is looked at and broken down into analytics. Players are playing a different game now. It has become more specialized. Starters are not expected to pitch a game "as long as they can". Now give me 5 or 6 and as soon as you have 2 guys get on base in the 5th or 6th inning the Manager thinks they are done and they get pulled, especially if you are near the 100 pitch count. Qualifications for the Hall need to be different just as the game is, "now different". The Hall is about representing the best players of their time, it is not nor should it be comparing players of present day to players from the past. 

 

[stringer bell]

I think Johan will be the next Twin in the Hall of Fame. I consider him more deserving than Morris or Kaat. It is hard to measure guys from different eras, but he was dominant in his era.

[strumdatjag]

1 hour ago, stringer bell said:

I think Johan will be the next Twin in the Hall of Fame. I consider him more deserving than Morris or Kaat. It is hard to measure guys from different eras, but he was dominant in his era.

Morris was well into his 60s and Kaat in his 80s when they made it into the HOF.  Johan is on the bubble for later induction like Kaat.   However, I remember being excited going to the ballpark every time I knew Johan was starting.  I can’t remember feeling that way for any other Twins pitcher as frequently.   
Does that make him the best Twins pitcher ever?   It depends on how one values longevity and World Series dramatics. 

[jkcarew]

5 hours ago, theBOMisthebomb said:

It hurts the Twins had so little postseason success and Johan has no signature postseason moment.

This. One was legendarily great in the postseason, the other quite ordinary in the limited chances he got.

Probably gets in eventually. It may take some time. I think any concerted effort needs to be timed correctly. The plan needs to be strategically executed when unusually ‘weak’ new eligibility pools happen.

[AlwaysinModeration]

The best way for the Twins to help his is case is to bring him back for a game this year, and he would go back on the ballot in 2029.

[Blyleven2011]

I've seen others post in other forums ,..

Is the person the best of his era or decade ...

Santana had excellent numbers once he established the change up ...

He ended career early due to injuries  and is comparable to Koufax  in alot of categories  ...

Is it enough  , Cy young awards , allstar selections but no championships ...

He had some post seasons but no championships world series  ...

When voting for the hall of fame I don't think the voters should take into consideration the playoffs an world series statistics  ...

When voting for a Cy young  or MVP,  these awards are voted on season statistics ...

Santana had one of the best change ups during his era or decade  , by developing that change up he definitely was a game changer of his era or decade , with the injuries  his career was cut short , but his legacy should live in in the hall of fame ....

 

[Mark G]

4 hours ago, stringer bell said:

I think Johan will be the next Twin in the Hall of Fame. I consider him more deserving than Morris or Kaat. It is hard to measure guys from different eras, but he was dominant in his era.

More deserving than Jim Kaat?  More deserving than Jim Kaat??  283 wins, 16 gold gloves, and a .185 lifetime batting average?  Yeah, pitchers had to hit once upon a time.  

I will never tell anyone they are not entitled to their opinions, but..........sorry, can't see this one.  Really can't see this one.  One thing to say that Johan is deserving, and I wouldn't criticize the thought, but more deserving than.......wow, I just don't know how to go there.  But then, that is just me.  Take care.  

 

[Teflon]

Joe Mauer, please include this in your 2024 HOF induction speech:  "And as I'm thanking my teammates, a special thanks to my two-time Cy Young winning battery mate, Johan Santana. I look forward to the day he joins me here in Cooperstown."

He can put that right after, "Thanks to Mike Redmond for showing me you can still be a big league catcher with a dad bod." 

[Schmoeman5]

The problem I have now in regards to HOF voting is that best 6 or 7 years metric. That's because of the rare few times guys careers were cut short for 1 reason or another. Puckett and Koufax are the examples used. They are the exception rather the rule. The Hall was started so that only the most exceptional players were to be inducted. Not 1 of the original inductees were elected unanimously.  It's supposed to be difficult. So Johan Santana was very good for 6 or 7 years. Herb Score. Sam McDowell Tony Conigliaro Lyman Bostock Denny McClain were all very good players. Potential HOFers who's careers were cut short for various reasons. Bostock being especially tragic. Sure, Santana was very good. I don't believe he's quite there amongst the elite. Call it bad luck or whatever. Put Santana in then guys will be clamoring for Mickey Lolich types who were very good as well to get in. 

[Teflon]

An interesting list from Jay Jaffe's X post concerning Corey Kluber but also showing the high historic standing of Johan Santana's peak 5-years.

[Oldgoat_MN]

On 2/17/2024 at 7:51 AM, old nurse said:

Koufax 0.98 ERA playoffs. Series MVP. Santana nowhere near that. 

Small Sample Size?

Brings to mind the old question:

"Should Ernie Banks be omitted from the Hall of Fame because he never played in a World Series?"

[old nurse]

8 hours ago, Oldgoat_MN said:

Small Sample Size?

Brings to mind the old question:

"Should Ernie Banks be omitted from the Hall of Fame because he never played in a World Series?"

The comment I was responding to was making light of the comparison to Koufax. That comparison was more like why Johan wasn’t comparable to Koufax and I added the statistic for lack of playoff success versus Koufax’s excellence 

[TwinsDr2021]

IMO, baseball better find a way to get him in the Hall. After Verlander, Greinke, Scherzer and Cole the rest of the major league pitchers are going to have a hard time getting to Santana's numbers. (Maybe WAR but not the counting numbers)