Corbin Burnes Trade

[Major League Ready]

The Brewers received Joey Ortiz, DL Hall and the 34th pick in the draft in exchange for Corbin Burnes.  The Twins don't have prospects that are really similar but they do have prospects of similar value.  What would an offer from the Twins have looked like that would have beaten out the Orioles offer?  Would Lee / Varland and the 33rd pick be equivalent?

[wabene]

4 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

The Brewers received Joey Ortiz, DL Hall and the 34th pick in the draft in exchange for Corbin Burnes.  The Twins don't have prospects that are really similar but they do have prospects of similar value.  What would an offer from the Twins have looked like that would have beaten out the Orioles offer?  Would Lee / Varland and the 33rd pick be equivalent?

Geez would people really give up that much for one year of Burnes? Seems crazy and unsustainable to me. Polo's gone. How is your infield depth now without Lee? How about your rotation depth next year without Varland? It's not something I would do. 

[Linus]

1 minute ago, wabene said:

Geez would people really give up that much for one year of Burnes? Seems crazy and unsustainable to me. Polo's gone. How is your infield depth now without Lee? How about your rotation depth next year without Varland? It's not something I would do. 

Me either. With these prices the Twins go to move of trading for starters may not be viable going forward. 

[Major League Ready]

4 minutes ago, wabene said:

Geez would people really give up that much for one year of Burnes? Seems crazy and unsustainable to me. Polo's gone. How is your infield depth now without Lee? How about your rotation depth next year without Varland? It's not something I would do. 

No doubt it's a lot for one year.  I was just trying to get a grip on what we would have needed to offer as to better judge the cost.  This seems about equivalent but then again, I don't know their players/prospects. Ortiz seems roughly equivalent to Lee and Hall to Varland.

[tony&rodney]

Mentioned this elsewhere - the rumors from some time ago were that Milwaukee wanted Polanco, Raya, and another player/comp pick for Burnes. The Twins have financial concerns though and turned to Seattle which caused the Brewers to turn to Baltimore. Never heard what the third piece was but I believe it was a moot point because of Burnes salary. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

23 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

The Brewers received Joey Ortiz, DL Hall and the 34th pick in the draft in exchange for Corbin Burnes.  The Twins don't have prospects that are really similar but they do have prospects of similar value.  What would an offer from the Twins have looked like that would have beaten out the Orioles offer?  Would Lee / Varland and the 33rd pick be equivalent?

Lee/Varland is a better offer than what the Brewers got and likely the asking price from the Brewers (or slot Raya/Festa in for Varland). I don't think the Twins had the right pieces to get a deal done because the Brewers would likely demand Lee, who is an overpay for one year of Burnes.

If the Twins traded for Burnes, I was hoping it would be a Burnes/Wiemer for Lee+. 

[Brandon]

1 hour ago, Linus said:

Me either. With these prices the Twins go to move of trading for starters may not be viable going forward. 

Timing is everything on trading for starters 

[Brandon]

1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Lee/Varland is a better offer than what the Brewers got and likely the asking price from the Brewers (or slot Raya/Festa in for Varland). I don't think the Twins had the right pieces to get a deal done because the Brewers would likely demand Lee, who is an overpay for one year of Burnes.

If the Twins traded for Burnes, I was hoping it would be a Burnes/Wiemer for Lee+. 

Hall and Ortiz were both bottom of MLB.com top 100 prospects.   #97 & 99 I think 

[Brandon]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

Mentioned this elsewhere - the rumors from some time ago were that Milwaukee wanted Polanco, Raya, and another player/comp pick for Burnes. The Twins have financial concerns though and turned to Seattle which caused the Brewers to turn to Baltimore. Never heard what the third piece was but I believe it was a moot point because of Burnes salary. 

That’s only a 4-5 million increase.  For the talent increase it’s a bargain 

[Linus]

15 minutes ago, Brandon said:

Timing is everything on trading for starters 

Is there some blue light special where good starters are half price on Tuesday afternoons?

[Brandon]

39 minutes ago, Linus said:

Is there some blue light special where good starters are half price on Tuesday afternoons?

We traded for Odorizzi towards the end of the offseason and for some reason no one was competing with us 

We got Maeda cause the Dodgers had too many starting pitchers and we were going to be part of a three team trade

we got Sony Gray because Cincinnati was cutting costs and we gave a good prospect 

Paddack is injury prone and coming off a down season

Lopez we just got lucky that the Marlins had extra starters and needed offense.  
These deals are all timing as any team could have swooped in and made better offers.  We didn’t lose any of these trades.  It was all about timing.  

[Mike Sixel]

Part of me is like "this isn't enough for Burnes." The other part is "that's a lot for 1 year of Burnes." Must be a fair deal.

I think the Twins could offer more, and not offer Lee, but I'm not sure.....and really, if it is Lee and Raya/Festa, I think it's too much for 1 year. That's the key here, IMO, to the price....the 1 year. 

However, in context of where the O's are, and their major and minor league talent, it is a great deal for them. Wouldn't make it a great deal for other teams, as that context matters.....

I don't totally get this and signing Hoskins, but I'm not GM....

[mnfireman]

If Lee/Varland was the asking price then the Twins made the right move by not making a move.

[bean5302]

Baseballtradevalues.com evaluated the trade as:

Corbin Burnes vs. DL Hall + Joey Ortiz + Round A Comp
33.8 vs. 18.9 + 13.6 + 4.0 (36.5)

The values are "surplus value" which is essentially the amount of value the player is expected to produce over the life of their contract/team control, less the projected cost of that production.

A similar package might be:
Emmanuel Rodriguez + David Festa + 2024 Twins Comp A = 19.9 + 8.7 + 4.0 = 32.6

Brooks Lee on his own would be an overpay. It doesn't mean the Brewers didn't ask for him, but I'm sure the Twins could have worked around a different option. If the Brewers were obsessed with a SS possibility, maybe swap Willi Castro for the Comp A pick or see how the Brewers feel about Noah Miller, Austin Martin or Nick Gordon, etc.

 

[bean5302]

Side note, I'd have made a similar trade happen for sure if I was the front office. Burnes would immediately slot in as our ace and raise the ceiling of our rotation dramatically. The Twins are already AL Central favorites (not saying too much there), but with Burnes, you have to like them for potential World Series contenders.

[AWOLNATION_11]

Brewers are flush with young outfielders though, so the ideas of similar packages the Twins could have offered where Rodriguez or Gonzalez replace Joey Oritz wouldn't likely be as attractive to the Brewers.  

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

I wasn't in love with the idea of trading for Burnes. If he was under contract for 2+ more seasons, it would've made more sense but the Twins have shown they want pitchers that are under team control for multiple years. Being that they aren't go to sign big name pitchers, their plan of attack makes sense to me.

[Brandon]

If the ask was Polanco and Raya for Burnes then someone in the front office should be fired for not jumping on that trade.  If the money was an issue then including another prospect for cash or an include a salary like Farmer or Castro would offset any increase in payroll.  That would be an all in go for it kind of move to say we are going for it.  The extra 50,00-100,000 tickets sold will help offset the salary difference too. 

[Linus]

1 hour ago, Brandon said:

We traded for Odorizzi towards the end of the offseason and for some reason no one was competing with us 

We got Maeda cause the Dodgers had too many starting pitchers and we were going to be part of a three team trade

we got Sony Gray because Cincinnati was cutting costs and we gave a good prospect 

Paddack is injury prone and coming off a down season

Lopez we just got lucky that the Marlins had extra starters and needed offense.  
These deals are all timing as any team could have swooped in and made better offers.  We didn’t lose any of these trades.  It was all about timing.  

Yea that’s not how it works. Supply and demand determine the price. It SEEMS like prices are going up. What we “paid” for Gray or Maeda several years ago has nothing to do with current prices. Probably why Polanco and prospects didn’t get us a top end pitcher. 

[Doctor Gast]

BAL has great prospects overflowing everywhere, with new ownership. They can easily make this kind of trade. For us, it makes no sense for 1 yr. of Burns. It was a pretty good deal on both sides, it met each other needs.

[mnfireman]

2 hours ago, Brandon said:

Hall and Ortiz were both bottom of MLB.com top 100 prospects.   #97 & 99 I think 

That is correct for their 2023 list, they have Ortiz at #63 for 2024, Hall, still considered a rookie, is not ranked. FanGraphs had them at #64 & #66 preseason 2023.

[jorgenswest]

Every extra year of control is more expensive. Two year is more than twice as expensive in prospects as 1 year. Looking for three years? Around 40% of the prospect cost is that third year. There is much more surplus value in the first year of arbitration than the third. Those extra dollars saved in salary results in a higher prospect cost. One year of Burnes is very expensive. Two years more than twice as expensive and probably takes the Twins top two prospects.

The Orioles did well in this trade. They get a year of Burnes and they will get a comp pick when he moves on in free agency. The Twins should not shy away from a deal for an ace with one year of control. 

[tony&rodney]

4 hours ago, Brandon said:

That’s only a 4-5 million increase.  For the talent increase it’s a bargain 

Maybe the Twins were being serious when they stated that the roster salary limits would be trimmed in consideration of revenues. Perhaps they are working to get to a similar range as the Brewers.

I am just a simple guy but I don't expect any decent signings and the salary decreases seem like they could have been accomplished and needs met if Falvey was willing to wait another month. We have no idea about how those discussions go and maybe Falvey was willing to hold 'em but the Pohlads wanted the numbers down by Feb. 1. It is all moot now. 83-85 wins should win the AL Central, expect a closer division this season.

[Brock Beauchamp]

21 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Baseballtradevalues.com evaluated the trade as:

Corbin Burnes vs. DL Hall + Joey Ortiz + Round A Comp
33.8 vs. 18.9 + 13.6 + 4.0 (36.5)

The values are "surplus value" which is essentially the amount of value the player is expected to produce over the life of their contract/team control, less the projected cost of that production.

A similar package might be:
Emmanuel Rodriguez + David Festa + 2024 Twins Comp A = 19.9 + 8.7 + 4.0 = 32.6

Brooks Lee on his own would be an overpay. It doesn't mean the Brewers didn't ask for him, but I'm sure the Twins could have worked around a different option. If the Brewers were obsessed with a SS possibility, maybe swap Willi Castro for the Comp A pick or see how the Brewers feel about Noah Miller, Austin Martin or Nick Gordon, etc.

 

This ignores the Brewers’ needs, though. They have outfielders up and down the roster and are trying to compete. It’s no coincidence that the players coming back are both MLB ready and are a pitcher and a shortstop.

If I was in the Brewers position, I would have asked for Lee and not moved off that position. He’s an absolutely perfect fit for them right now. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

21 hours ago, Linus said:

Yea that’s not how it works. Supply and demand determine the price. It SEEMS like prices are going up. What we “paid” for Gray or Maeda several years ago has nothing to do with current prices. Probably why Polanco and prospects didn’t get us a top end pitcher. 

Inflation effects us all

[Major League Ready]

22 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

This ignores the Brewers’ needs, though. They have outfielders up and down the roster and are trying to compete. It’s no coincidence that the players coming back are both MLB ready and are a pitcher and a shortstop.

If I was in the Brewers position, I would have asked for Lee and not moved off that position. He’s an absolutely perfect fit for them right now. 

Ortiz is a great fit as well.  I heard a couple different radio shows where they thought he would play 3rd this year and then move to SS when Adames becomes a free agent next year.  Obviously, Ortiz is not ranked as high as Lee but he had significantly better numbers than Lee at AA and AAA.  Milwaukee might not have seen much difference.  Hall is a bit of a wildcard.  Top of the rotation stuff if he can control it.  

Good trade for both sides.  The Orioles farm system is deep and they did not give up their top prospects.

[Brock Beauchamp]

23 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Ortiz is a great fit as well.  I heard a couple different radio shows where they thought he would play 3rd this year and then move to SS when Adames becomes a free agent next year.  Obviously, Ortiz is not ranked as high as Lee but he had significantly better numbers than Lee at AA and AAA.  Milwaukee might not have seen much difference.  Hall is a bit of a wildcard.  Top of the rotation stuff if he can control it.  

Good trade for both sides.  The Orioles farm system is deep and they did not give up their top prospects.

Oh, for sure. Ortiz fits right into the Brewers' needs, just as Lee would.

[tony&rodney]

23 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

If I was in the Brewers position, I would have asked for Lee and not moved off that position. He’s an absolutely perfect fit for them right now. 

This is correct. They did not move off of that ask and Falvey wouldn't give up Lee. 

[Parfigliano]

17 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

This is correct. They did not move off of that ask and Falvey wouldn't give up Lee. 

Good.

[Riverbrian]

22 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Ortiz is a great fit as well.  I heard a couple different radio shows where they thought he would play 3rd this year and then move to SS when Adames becomes a free agent next year. 

I like how the Orioles utilize their IF prospects in preparation for the majors. Holliday, Westburg, Henderson, Mayo, Norby and Joey Ortiz now off to the Brewers have all played multiple positions down in the minors.  

It's easy to speculate the Brewers starting Ortiz at 3B and moving to SS because the Orioles have been training him for this sort of thing. 

Brooks Lee has basically been a SS. 

I'm never sure how much this sort of thing matters but I have to imagine that it does matter... if only just a little. 

When it's time to call up Brooks Lee... the Twins won't know where that opening will open. Is it Lewis, Correa or Julien who gets injured to create a spot for Brooks. Is it best that Brooks prepares for anywhere now in the minors or do you just do it on the fly in the majors? 

I like the way the Orioles do it.