The Table Setter, Jan. 15, 2024: Marlins May do What?

[Ted Schwerzler]

While the Minnesota Twins continue to wait in the weeds and scope out their first big move of the offseason, baseball continues to barrel toward spring training. Action hasn't come at a frenzied pace yet, but you can feel it picking up.

Image courtesy of © Rhona Wise-USA TODAY Sports

While there weren’t any huge moves over the weekend, the free-agent pool continues to be chock-full of big names. The Athletic’s top 25 options still has eight unsigned players, and the cream of that crop includes Blake Snell, Cody Bellinger, Jordan Montgomery, and Josh Hader.

Scott Boras continues to seek a massive payday for Bellinger, who had a massive bounceback year with the Cubs after returning to a clean bill of health. Reports have suggested that the Texas Rangers would like to reunite with Montgomery, and Hader is reportedly seeking a deal better than what Edwin Díaz got from the Mets.

There has been some talk of Snell being a fit for the Blue Jays, though that seems like an odd tidbit, unless they were to move an arm. Back in December, we talked about how the Twins could be a fit as a partner if Toronto was interested in either Max Kepler or Jorge Polanco, and Minnesota would net Alek Manoah in some sort of a return.

Jordan Hicks Finds a Home
The San Francisco Giants have been searching for a superstar for quite some time. They did come to an agreement with Jung Hoo Lee last month, but they missed out on Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa last season, and weren’t too deep in the running for Shohei Ohtani. After dealing for Robbie Ray, who is going to miss roughly half of the 2024 season, they opted to sign Jordan Hicks…for their starting rotation.

Hicks has pitched in 212 major-league games over the course of a five-year career, but just eight of them have come as a starter. He has shown a lacking ability to stay healthy, and his stuff has played better out of the bullpen. His 77 2/3 career high for innings pitched came in 2018, and asking a guy with a substantial injury history to double (or more) his 65 2/3 innings from last season seems like a stretch. Maybe the Giants know something everybody else is missing.

Twins Hone in on Hobie
Over the weekend, the Twins signed another free-agent reliever to a minor-league deal. Hobie Harris joins the organization after making his major-league debut as a 30-year-old with the Washington Nationals last season. Darren Wolfson reported that the organization has been attempting to sign him the past couple of years now, and they finally get it done.

Harris joins the likes of A.J. Alexy as veteran types brought in on minor-league deals. While neither has the 40-man roster spot like Ryan Jensen claimed, both are clearly players the organization likes. Harris posted a 2.04 ERA across 53 innings at Triple A for Milwaukee in 2022. He strikes out a lot of batters, walks a few too many, but doesn’t surrender long balls. Minnesota would love to see this work out along the lines of Danny Coulombe or Jeff Hoffman, but this time, they have to hang onto the player.

Marlins Want to do What?
A year after the Miami Marlins sent Pablo López and José Salas to the Minnesota Twins in exchange for second baseman Luis Arráez, they appear intent on trading him. Yes, the guy whom Kim Ng acquired and moved Jazz Chisholm to the outfield for is someone that the new regime would like to move, or at least are open to moving. Forget the fact that Arráez posted a career-best 3.4 fWAR, won a second straight batting title, and is beloved by Miami. The organization pays almost no one big dollars, and Arráez is coming into the big-dollar phase of his career.

Jon Heyman noted that while the most likely players to be dealt from the Marlins are either Jesús Luzardo or Edward Cabrera, the front office is open to hearing what teams offer for Arráez. He’s got two years of team control left, but it's unlikely Miami wants to pay him the nearly $30 million he's likely to make over that term, and the sides already have a discrepancy in what the player is worth through arbitration. Getting something back before simply having to provide him a qualifying offer makes sense, but that would be a tough turnaround.

Boring Mauer Weekend
Maybe it was that the NFL playoff action was too much for BBWAA voters to overcome, but just two new ballots were revealed over the weekend. One of them was a three-man offering that included Adrián Beltré, Álex Rodríguez, and Manny Ramírez. No Joe Mauer was unfortunate, but that one was clearly a small-Hall ballot; so it goes.

On Sunday, Mauer did get his name checked on the only ballot turned in, and Jeff Wilson’s offering had the Twins great being accompanied by seven others. Through 158 publicly revealed ballots, Mauer has been selected on 132 of them, which represents an 83.5% polling rate per Ryan Thibodaux’s tracker. He is trending toward first-ballot induction, and could challenge Kirby Puckett’s 82.1% vote.

It was on Jan. 20 last year that Minnesota swung the López-for-Arráez deal, and they could again be busy this week. The Twins have yet to sort out their starting rotation, a couple of expensive veterans remain, and they did just do an interesting arbitration deal with utility player Kyle Farmer.

What are you hoping to see take place in the baseball world this week?

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[DJL44]

If the Rangers add Montgomery they could be open to trading Andrew Heaney just to free up cash. He's on a 1 year $13M contract for 2024.

[Karbo]

I keep seeing Manoah come up as someone the Twins are interested in. Maybe they can fix him mechanically, but what about mentally? I don't have the kind of info the FO has but on what I do know I wouldn't give up much.

[Ely Sussman]

I cannot envision the Marlins trading Arraez this offseason, but within the next year, it is unfortunately looking far more likely than an extension. Without knowing specifically what sort of money Arraez expects from an extension, it'd be an awful setback for the team. He's such an important "floor-raiser" for a lineup even if he has his flaws in other areas.

[Oldgoat_MN]

I have no idea why I'm finding numerous places where I read that the Marlins are interested in trading Luzardo, but I'd trade nearly anyone not named Lewis or Jenkins for him.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Marlins already willing to move on from Arraez.  1 they think they can get something for him, 2) they gave up a lot to get him, for him to have a career year and then just willing to trade him back out. 

I know the regimes changed and he is effectively one of their best trade chips,  but I have said before and will continue to say we really got the better end of the deal on that one.  

I would take Arraez back for 2 years though 😁.  Curious what the cost would be. 

I would do a Polanco and ERod (26.5) for Arraez (30.2) straight up.   Arraez can play 2nd, 1st and DH.  Same with Julien.  

[Nashvilletwin]

Wait a second.  Is it possible we could first get Lopez and then also get Arraez back?  Is our FO playing some sort of 3D chess that we’ve never seen before?  Does the FO envision a future 2B, 1B, DH interchangeable combination of Lee, Julien and Arraez batting in the first three spots in the order? And by moving either Kepler or Polanco (let alone both) we could easily afford to get Arraez back?  And given the Marlins salary issues, we could probably pick Arraez back up for a couple of mid level prospects? Oh, and does Arraez love it in Minnesota and do Twins fans love Arraez?

Alas, we could only dream…

 

[Nashvilletwin]

Seriously:

1. Arraez L (DH)
2. Lee SW (2B)
3. Julien L (1B)
4. Lewis R (3B)
5. Kepler L (RF)
6. Buxton R (CF)
7. Wallner L (LF)
8. Jeffers R (C)
9. Correa R (SS)

Bench: Vasquez plus three of Castro, Kiriloff, Martin, Farmer, Gordon, Larnach, and Miranda. Trade Polanco.

Or keep Polanco until Lee is ready and have Polanco be in the 1B/2B/DH interchange with Arraez and Julien. In this case, we could trade Kepler and move Wallner to RF and play Kiriloff in LF.

This would be one fun lineup to watch - I wouldn’t leave the TV for any Twins AB. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

What about Julien  for Arraez? 

[Joe A. Preusser]

1 hour ago, Oldgoat_MN said:

I have no idea why I'm finding numerous places where I read that the Marlins are interested in trading Luzardo, but I'd trade nearly anyone not named Lewis or Jenkins for him.

X1000

 

[mnfireman]

MLBTR predicted $10.8 MM, Arraez filed for $12 MM, Marlins countered at $10,6 MM, next year will be even more. Out of the Twins price range. 

[Nashvilletwin]

11 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

MLBTR predicted $10.8 MM, Arraez filed for $12 MM, Marlins countered at $10,6 MM, next year will be even more. Out of the Twins price range. 

Offer him a 3x$12MM extension. Trade Kepler and Polanco for pitching prospects.  Net cost over three years is essentially zero. Kepler and Polanco will be gone anyway - probably no later than the trade deadline anyway but certainly by next year. 

[Fatbat]

1 hour ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Seriously:

1. Arraez L (DH)
2. Lee SW (2B)
3. Julien L (1B)
4. Lewis R (3B)
5. Kepler L (RF)
6. Buxton R (CF)
7. Wallner L (LF)
8. Jeffers R (C)
9. Correa R (SS)

Bench: Vasquez plus three of Castro, Kiriloff, Martin, Farmer, Gordon, Larnach, and Miranda. Trade Polanco.

Or keep Polanco until Lee is ready and have Polanco be in the 1B/2B/DH interchange with Arraez and Julien. In this case, we could trade Kepler and move Wallner to RF and play Kiriloff in LF.

This would be one fun lineup to watch - I wouldn’t leave the TV for any Twins AB. 

Miami loves cheep guys so Polanco, Martin, Festa and Severino for Luzardo? 

[ashbury]

It's splitting hairs whether Kim Ng quit or was fired, but trading a starting pitcher for a position player is perhaps part of what caused the falling-out.  Pitching is the coin of the realm. They won't get someone like Pablo Lopez back if they trade Arraez now.

[tony&rodney]

Miami has some issues. Money, drawing crowds to their games, stability, and offense look like problems. The Marlins went to the playoffs with Arraez so i doubt they regret the trade. The inability to sign the right people to long term contracts and luck hurts them. Alcantara signs a friendly deal and gets hurt. The Marlins still have some guys to trade and some players who could perk up on offense. They should be an interesting team to watch, both now for what they might do in transactions and also in the season to come.

[mnfireman]

27 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Offer him a 3x$12MM extension. Trade Kepler and Polanco for pitching prospects.  Net cost over three years is essentially zero. Kepler and Polanco will be gone anyway - probably no later than the trade deadline anyway but certainly by next year. 

I doubt he does that deal, he's going to probably get the $12 MM he asked for in arb this season, he's guaranteed a raise next year, more than likely $5 - $6 MM over this season, lets call it $17 MM, and the QO would be on the table here (probably not in Miami), lets call that $21 MM. 

Using those numbers, he's looking at about $50 MM over the next 3 seasons as a starting point for an extension, 3 x $12 MM won't get it done.

[DJL44]

46 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Offer him a 3x$12MM extension. Trade Kepler and Polanco for pitching prospects.  Net cost over three years is essentially zero. Kepler and Polanco will be gone anyway - probably no later than the trade deadline anyway but certainly by next year. 

Arraez is probably going to win his arbitration hearing and get $12M this season. That would guarantee him at least $12M next season (probably $16M) and then he's a free agent. If you want him on a 3-year deal expect to pay $50M+, not $36M.

[Nashvilletwin]

44 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Arraez is probably going to win his arbitration hearing and get $12M this season. That would guarantee him at least $12M next season (probably $16M) and then he's a free agent. If you want him on a 3-year deal expect to pay $50M+, not $36M.

You, like me, must be one of the TDers who think Arraez is really good.   Given how last year around this time a fair number of us could only talk about how bad his knees are, he couldn’t play 2B because he’s such a liability, he has no power so 1B was out, as a singles hitter he was I’ll suited to just being a dh and besides Buxton needed those ABs, etc. etc., I just figured 3x$12 would be plenty, if not generous. Lol  

Guess I was wrong - Arraez is actually good and valued.

Another example of the age old game of “Which Is It” on the TD.

Of course, that’s why the TD is so much fun. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

It would be pretty weird if Arraez were actually on the market, but depending on their current (at this moment) financial situation, Miami might be forced to do it.  I say lets acquire Luzardo so that it will take a little bit of heat off of them financially so that they can keep him!

No.  I don't think we need to trade for Arraez, although it would certainly be a first for a player to win the batting title for a team, win a batting title for a new team, and then possibly win a batting title for his first team.  That would be really fun!

[Boswell]

5 hours ago, Oldgoat_MN said:

I have no idea why I'm finding numerous places where I read that the Marlins are interested in trading Luzardo, but I'd trade nearly anyone not named Lewis or Jenkins for him.

Yep.  The move for 2024 needs to be some combination of Lee, Julien, Kirilloff, Wallner, Larnach, Rodriguez, Polanco and/or Kepler to Miami (Luzardo), Seattle )Kirby), Milwaukee (Burnes), Toronto (Manaoh) or Chicago (Cease). 
 

Perhaps it would take 1-2 of those plus 1-2 pitching prospects.  
 

Maybe Kim Ng really was too far “outside the box” to trade an established, high-end starter (plus prospects!) for a super-premium hitting talent (with limits and flaws).   The Pablo deal may have been a unicorn of its own making  

Regardless, it seems like GM’s track all these players over several years (duh) and eventually get their “man-crushes” and “bro-mances” going… and the deals are indeed consummated  

 

[Ted Schwerzler]

7 hours ago, Karbo said:

I keep seeing Manoah come up as someone the Twins are interested in. Maybe they can fix him mechanically, but what about mentally? I don't have the kind of info the FO has but on what I do know I wouldn't give up much.

I think that's what drives his price down, and it could be the organization that he's over with rather than something personally.

[USNMCPO]

6 hours ago, ashbury said:

It's splitting hairs whether Kim Ng quit or was fired, but trading a starting pitcher for a position player is perhaps part of what caused the falling-out.  Pitching is the coin of the realm. They won't get someone like Pablo Lopez back if they trade Arraez now.

She probably got too expensive.

[DJL44]

5 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Guess I was wrong - Arraez is actually good and valued. 

He is, but not as good and valued as Pablo Lopez and especially not for the Twins.

[SteveLV]

If the Marlins are looking to shed salary, do the Twins make the long move and try to get Alcantara?  Will not play until 2025, and coming off TJS, but a STUD prior to injury.  If we send Polanco, does that get it done?  They get offense and salary relief in 2024 and we get pitching down the line on a reasonable contract.

Or part of a larger trade involving other players?