Let's Not Overlook the Value of Christian Vázquez

[DJL44]

12 minutes ago, farmerguychris said:

I still think that we need our assets spent in other areas.  We know we'll need more than 5 pitchers.  I'd include Vazquez in trade conversations, but in return something I'll be seeking is a 'normal' back up level catcher who has minor league options still available.  Vazquez is a borderline starter, and Carmago appears ready to be the back up now in the majors.  I'm afraid $10M is just too much when we need to spend that money elsewhere.  

I think what we're seeing here is how difficult it is to build a contending team for $125M. To get down to that number they have to give up a lot. You either sacrifice in the infield (Polanco or Farmer), the rotation (Gray and Maeda), behind the plate (Vazquez) or in the outfield (Kepler).

[PDX Twin]

2 hours ago, old nurse said:

If a part time catcher makes the choices that makes the starting pitchers 0.25 war better they are worth their 10 million dollar contract. As much as people have tried to forget, one shouldn’t ever forget that Doumit scrunch the strike zone so much that Glen Perkins said he felt that he had to pitch to a strike zone the size of a postage stamp when Doumit was catching. 

This is a great point. Unlike any other position on the field, the catcher plays a critical role in making the pitching effective. The Twins had great pitching last year and none of us really knows how much of that was due to Jeffers, how much to Vazquez, and how much independent of catching.

[stringer bell]

I am "meh" about keeping Vázquez. I do believe he's a sound defensive catcher and that his hitting numbers should trend up a bit, but I don't think he's worth $20M to the Twins in the next two years. The key is that one or both of the two catchers will probably suffer a disabling injury in the coming year, meaning more time for the "other" catcher as well as for the third catcher (Camargo). Would the Twins be all right with Austin Hedges starting 100 games behind the plate? I don't think so. Maybe someone like Caratini would be all right in the alternate catcher role (lifetime .684 OPS, .711 last year), plus he's a switch hitter. From what I can see, he's decent defensively.

[Mike Sixel]

I don't trade him to save money. I would trade him for a good prospect, assuming they then sign another, less expensive, catcher. I think he's clearly good to great defensively...... And when the pitching isn't as good, because it's not likely to be given the staff, people will blame the catching rather than the pitchers....

He'll likely hit better next year. He needs to, given the rest of the team as currently constructed. 

[HoskenPowell]

If they have to eat ANY of the salary they should just keep him.  There will be injuries and Jeffers will get wore down catching more than 90 games.  

Get a LH power relief pitcher and shed the entire contract ?  Sure , then I'm for trading him then if they are dead set on lowering the payroll.

Really sucks they have this crappy tv contract.  Never in my 54 years on earth has watching a Twins game on tv been more expensive and quite frankly a pain in the arse to even find.   Worst sports broadcasts ever.  And they wonder why the younger generation ( and many long time fans)has lost interest in MLB.

[Jeff K]

3 hours ago, Hrbeks Divot said:

I agree with the article and think Vazquez is worth his contract. The problem simply goes back to the team saying they plan to reduce payroll. If you don’t trade one of Vázquez, Kepler or Polanco where does the reduction come from? Farmer isn’t enough if we’re going to create enough space to add a #2-3 starter. We’re going to have to move multiple players. Tough decisions ahead.

This is exactly the point.  The payroll is constrained and the Twins must add a quality starter and this is more important than retaining the two headed catching approach.  I like having two starting catchers, but the Twins have told us they can't afford it.

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Has anybody looked at pitching statistics for Vasquez's starts vs Jeffer's starts? 

Yes, but those numbers for 2023 don't support the narrative people seem to want:

Jeffers ERA: 3.61

Vazquez ERA: 4.09

 

[Twinsrtheworst]

3 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Thanks Nick great article. I have been venomously against trading Vazquez for all the reasons that you've stated above. But I'd like to add another one that people have so conviently forgotten, and that is Vazquez had the lion's share of facing RHPs at least to begin the season. Which could have kept Vazquez from really finding his groove from the start & helped Jeffers to find his.

IMO sitting Vazquez during the PS, was more wanting Jeffers to have the spot light & prove to everyone that their betting the farm on Jeffers was warranted. IMO choosing Jeffers was not an inteligent decision, it was a bias & wrong one. Vazquez has a lot of post season experience at the highest level where a player like that shifts it to another gear & help the Twins further advance, Ryan was lost. The roles should have been switched but I'd give Jeffers some ABs to get his feet wet not in a situation where he'd drown. 

 

I might be missing something...but how did the Twins "bet the farm" on Jeffers?

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

I would trade him for a good prospect, assuming they then sign another, less expensive, catcher.

That team with the good prospect - why wouldn't they sign the other, less expensive catcher, and save themselves the prospect?

If the answer is that the other, less expensive catcher is worse than Vazquez, well, maybe that is 10 million good reasons to keep him after all.

[Jocko87]

3 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Really spot on article. Frankly I am puzzled why Rocco failed to play Vasquez any, any during the Twins playoff games. In my opinion, by his 2023 defensive play and his handling of the pitchers, Vasquez had more than earned the right to start a game or 2 in the playoffs, especially against the Astros, his former team from the previous season.  He is a veteran leader, who was told, by Rocco's actions, that he was not good enough. And keep in mind, he does have 2 World Series rings. 

I really think this is what it will come down to.  He may be asking for a trade too. We saw the player usage really neck down to the obvious choices in the post season but I was still surprised he didn’t get any run at all. It seems to point to them having less faith in all the areas discussed in the article and comments which is surprising.  Were he the obvious player they were not going to shed payroll on I’d be arguing for all those intangibles myself.  The team showed their hand a bit in the playoffs I think.  

I’d still keep him though, for all the reasons mentioned. Making it all year with just 2 catchers again is very unlikely, I was pulling for a minor league contract for a Sandy Leon last spring.  It’s just a horrible position to be short on depth and we all know how much they love depth.
 

19 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Yes, but those numbers for 2023 don't support the narrative people seem to want:

Jeffers ERA: 3.61

Vazquez ERA: 4.09

 

How much of Jeffers improvement was Vazquez mentoring him? Also impossible for us to know.

[LA Vikes Fan]

1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

I think Vazquez will bounce back at the plate somewhat (and I suspect other teams would agree with that) so with his superior defense he still has some value and certainly could be worth the $10M he's due for 2024. The real question on dealing him comes down to two things for me: how confident are you that Jeffers can stay healthy enough to catch 100+ games, and how ready do you think Camargo is to not only handle the position defensively, but also hold his own at the plate.

If the team feels strongly about Camargo's readiness to play in MLB (including handling full-time catching duties in case of an injury), then looking to move on from Vazquez is reasonable, especially if there's a decent deal out there. It would make it easier to hang on to Polanco, and they could add a catcher to hang out in AAA if injuries strike.

I suspect right now the Twins are pushing Farmer, Polanco, and Vazquez out there to see what kind of market there is as they look to cut some payroll and stabilize the rotation. Without knowing how highly they think of Camargo, it's hard to know who serious they are about moving Vazquez. It's also hard to know what the market is for him: he was so awful on offense last season that even with his defense if he doesn't bounce back he's worth very little, and certainly not $10M.

Camargo has a solid reputation behind the plate and he's been a quality bat at multiple levels, so last season at AAA isn't just an International League-fueled fluke. It's an interesting question.

This is right and applies to Polanco and Kepler as well as to Vasquez. In a perfect world we would keep all three AND get a #2/3 SP in FA -very unlikely given the prices - or through a trade - also unlikely since giving up one of the 3 is likely part of the trade price unless we want to give up multiple young options (not happening). We have replacements for all 3 guys, but all those replacements carry risk. We simply don't have enough information on the potential trade return to know if trading Vasquez is smart, dumb, or simply a calculated risk.  

Still, it's fun to speculate. I think all 3 of those guys plus everyone else on the roster not a SP or named Duran, Correa, Buxton or Lewis is out there being shopped right now. Frankly, they should be. This roster is good but has needs and some surplusage in the IF in particular.  We aren't willing to pay the inflated SP prices except maybe for a Seth Lugo type so any improvement will have to come via a trade. And any trade will mean someone we'd rather keep will be gone. 

I think getting a solid young mid-rotation starter with upside is the #1 priority (think Bryce Miller, Bryan Woo,  Edward Cabrerra, etc.). If that means trading Vasquez, Polanco , Kepler, or even Wallner, Julien or Kirilloff alone or as part of a package, we got to do it.  Trading Polanco and Wallner almost gets you Woo or Miller and a reliever like Justin Topa (according to BTV). So does trading Kirilloff and Wallner, and maybe throwing in a Vasquez and paying half of his salary gets that over the top. Polanco and Kirilloff gets you Edward Cabrera. There are endless permutations. We have to be willing to do make this kind of a move if we want to upgrade the starting pitching. I don't think anyone should be untouchable other than Lewis, Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Correa, Lee, and Duran. The key unknown is what we can get back and it's starting pitching we want and need. Anyone else should be available to trade for that. 

[Mike Sixel]

23 minutes ago, ashbury said:

That team with the good prospect - why wouldn't they sign the other, less expensive catcher, and save themselves the prospect?

If the answer is that the other, less expensive catcher is worse than Vazquez, well, maybe that is 10 million good reasons to keep him after all.

I don't understand the question......I said what I'd do, not anything about other teams and stuff. If there isn't a team willing to deal value for him, for whatever reason, then I don't trade him. Nothing more or less. I would 100% expect the less expensive guy to be worse than Vazquez, but the return to make up for that in other ways.....

[Doctor Gast]

19 minutes ago, se7799 said:

I might be missing something...but how did the Twins "bet the farm" on Jeffers?

They traded away their #1 catcher  Garver, their future #1 Rortvedt and not drafting any decent catching prospects. Not leaving any competition for their hand picked backup catcher. It's make or break with Jeffers. I don't like the odds.

[harmony55]

To cut payroll, would anyone trade Christian Vazquez and Edouard Julien to Seattle for six years of righthander Bryce Miller?

Probably not but Baseball Trade Values calls the swap a fair trade with a minimal edge to the Twins.

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/151029

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, Doctor Gast said:

They traded away their #1 catcher  Garver, their future #1 Rortvedt and not drafting any decent catching prospects. Not leaving any competition for their hand picked backup catcher. It's make or break with Jeffers. I don't like the odds.

Garver can't catch, and Rortverdt was out for a year and can't hit. Both of those were the right move for a team with this budget and depth. Not even close.

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, harmony55 said:

To cut payroll, would anyone trade Christian Vazquez and Edouard Julien to Seattle for six years of righthander Bryce Miller?

Probably not but Baseball Trade Values calls the swap a fair trade with a minimal edge to the Twins.

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/151029

I think we should stop trusting BTV at this point....

[Twinsrtheworst]

3 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

They traded away their #1 catcher  Garver, their future #1 Rortvedt and not drafting any decent catching prospects. Not leaving any competition for their hand picked backup catcher. It's make or break with Jeffers. I don't like the odds.

I'd not consider Garver or Rortvedt #1 catchers in my opinion.  Ones a DH..ones a oft injured backup at best.  Jeffers is and was the best of those 3...as always just my opinion.

[ashbury]

15 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I don't understand the question......I said what I'd do, not anything about other teams and stuff. If there isn't a team willing to deal value for him, for whatever reason, then I don't trade him. Nothing more or less. I would 100% expect the less expensive guy to be worse than Vazquez, but the return to make up for that in other ways.....

I was offering a reason why your scenario probably wouldn't play out.

I would trade Francis Peguero to the Orioles for Kyle Bradish.  It's what I'd do.  If the Orioles aren't willing then never mind - I'll turn attention to Tanner Bibee, maybe by offering Balazovic.

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, ashbury said:

I was offering a reason why your scenario probably wouldn't play out.

I would trade Francis Peguero to the Orioles for Kyle Bradish.  It's what I'd do.  If the Orioles aren't willing then never mind - I'll turn attention to Tanner Bibee, maybe by offering Balazovic.

Great, if no team will offer value, then don't do it. 

[ashbury]

24 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

How much of Jeffers improvement was Vazquez mentoring him? Also impossible for us to know.

Catchers ERA has been studied to death over the decades, with no one finding that it's a repeatable statistic that reliably indicates the skill for the position.  There are too many factors lying beneath the surface, such as quality of opponent, or simply how to factor in when a pitcher with a good track record comes to the mound with no feel for his curveball the first three innings that day.  Since catching tandems don't stay together for many seasons in a row, apples-to-apples comparisons are rare just on that basis alone.

Using poorer ERA as evidence for superior talent due to mentoring is a new one, however. 

[DJL44]

22 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

They traded away their #1 catcher  Garver, their future #1 Rortvedt and not drafting any decent catching prospects. Not leaving any competition for their hand picked backup catcher. It's make or break with Jeffers. I don't like the odds.

They can probably get Rortvedt back from the Yankees for almost nothing.

[Doctor Gast]

30 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Garver can't catch, and Rortverdt was out for a year and can't hit. Both of those were the right move for a team with this budget and depth. Not even close.

Yes Garver was on his way out of #1 but Garver's defense was just as good as Jeffers if not debatibly better & was a better hitter. NYY even deep in catching saw Rortvedt's potential. Rortvedt is an excellent defensive catcher that once started to focus on his hitting he was showing progress & as a LH hitter he'd prove to be very useful offensively. But he got stuck in the NYY system & they wrecked him. Jeffers that had more years of availibilty & more experience than Rortvedt was a much more valuable trade piece than Garver & Rortvedt combined. IMO Jeffers was not even close as one to be traded. We went from top tier to toilet with 0 depth in that trade.

If we didn't get Vazquez & we had to depend on Jeffers as our primary catcher again this last year our catching would still be in the toilet & our rotation would not have noticeably  acheived what they had.

[jorgenswest]

ERA isn’t a very predictive stat and catcher ERA can’t be better. It would be so hard to control the varying quality of opponent and pitcher caught added to all of the other noise in ERA. It may have been helpful years ago when pitch level data wasn’t available. I sure hope it isn’t part of what the Twins use to evaluate a catcher.

[Mike Sixel]

13 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Yes Garver was on his way out of #1 but Garver's defense was just as good as Jeffers if not debatibly better & was a better hitter. NYY even deep in catching saw Rortvedt's potential. Rortvedt is an excellent defensive catcher that once started to focus on his hitting he was showing progress & as a LH hitter he'd prove to be very useful offensively. But he got stuck in the NYY system & they wrecked him. Jeffers that had more years of availibilty & more experience than Rortvedt was a much more valuable trade piece than Garver & Rortvedt combined. IMO Jeffers was not even close as one to be traded. We went from top tier to toilet with 0 depth in that trade.

If we didn't get Vazquez & we had to depend on Jeffers as our primary catcher again this last year our catching would still be in the toilet & our rotation would not have noticeably  acheived what they had.

And yet, knowing they needed another catcher, they signed one.....maybe that was, you know, the plan.....They have one of the best catching duos in the game right now, so I don't get the constant complaining.

[jmlease1]

38 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Garver can't catch, and Rortverdt was out for a year and can't hit. Both of those were the right move for a team with this budget and depth. Not even close.

Well, Garver did start 27 games at catcher in 2023, but he certainly can't be a number 1 catcher. I do wonder what kind of deal he'll get in FA; as a part-time catcher who can mash lefties, hold his own against righties, plays a passable 1B and would be an effective DH...kinda sounds like a nice fit for the Twins! (probably out of the price range, and we really don't need another guy with a lot of injury issues, but...)

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

Well, Garver did start 27 games at catcher in 2023, but he certainly can't be a number 1 catcher. I do wonder what kind of deal he'll get in FA; as a part-time catcher who can mash lefties, hold his own against righties, plays a passable 1B and would be an effective DH...kinda sounds like a nice fit for the Twins! (probably out of the price range, and we really don't need another guy with a lot of injury issues, but...)

He's clearly a DH and "emergency" catcher at this point....which is valuable if he's healthy. I think he could play 1B fine also. I'm betting he gets a 1 year deal in the 8-10 range.

[Jocko87]

25 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Using poorer ERA as evidence for superior talent due to mentoring is a new one, however. 

I'm not sure what this means. I certainly didn't say that. I thought the concept of an accomplished veteran helping a talented youngster put things together would be pretty universally understood. My bad. I did say it was impossible for us to know which would indicate I was pointing away from any statistic. Your comment was merely an opportunity to tag along with.

[rv78]

So who do they rely on if Jeffers gets hurt? Just not too long ago...... in 2022 when Jeffers and Sanchez were the duo and neither one could go they ended up with Sandy Leon. Do they really want to go that route again? If we are throwing in the towel then there is no excuse not to trade Polanco and Kepler and see if Correa and Buxton would waive their no trade clauses as well. Let's go all the way.

[Mike Sixel]

27 minutes ago, rv78 said:

So who do they rely on if Jeffers gets hurt? Just not too long ago...... in 2022 when Jeffers and Sanchez were the duo and neither one could go they ended up with Sandy Leon. Do they really want to go that route again? If we are throwing in the towel then there is no excuse not to trade Polanco and Kepler and see if Correa and Buxton would waive their no trade clauses as well. Let's go all the way.

well, they'd likely have Sandy Leon type in AAA (and on the roster), so, um him (in addition to Camargo)? Trading Vazquez isn't punting the season. Let's not exaggerate his importance, imo.

[DocBauer]

#1] I have a really good feeling about Camargo. I'm not expecting anything great, but who knows. But he strikes me as a quality #2 soon, if not now. He's reportedly a good guy, a good teammate, a solid game caller, defender and thrower. The bat, and power, began to come alive in 2022. He will get his opportunity this season. But he's not the second coming of Mauer. I'd be OK letting him wait and work a little longer until opportunity knocks.

2] Vazquez is a quality, experienced backstop. That's why he was signed. Not because the Twins expected a Silver Slugger at the spot. And he's still that guy, probably with at least a little better bat in 2024. Even as poor of an offensive season as he had, he still produced 19 XBH and 32 RBI. That's not really bad production, overall, from 1/2 of your catching tandem. TOTAL, the Twins got a great catching performance between Vazquez and Jeffers, though Jeffers is obviously the better bat.

3] Jeffers was drafted as a bat first catcher with smarts and defensive potential. He hit in college. He hit in the minors. He hit as a rookie when promoted...arguably too soon...in 2020. He flashed here and there  but didn't look very good in 2021-22 as pitches made adjustments and he had some injuries. He entered 2023 with less than 600 ML AB. He worked hard in the offseason and ST and had his best offensive year to date. So why is everyone so surprised that a bat first catcher,  who hit everywhere else, suddenly emerged as a good hitter?

The Twins may have the best ML catching duo around, overall. Camargo offers depth, youth and some upside with the bat. But IMO, you only break up that great ML tandem if Vazquez actually brings back something good. There are teams that certainly need some backstop help. I hear Miami does, for example. So what kind of arm does Polanco, Vazquez, and maybe a lower level prospect bring back? Just spitballing.

Foolish to move him only to shed $ as he has value and as a duo, he and Jeffers are not expensive. OK to make the move if he's part of a bigger picture that brings something good back, like a young, controllable arm with upside.