Top Trade Candidates

[stringer bell]

mlbtraderumors.com is out with their Top 25 Trade Candidates. The Twins have three players listed (Kepler, Polanco, Vázquez). 

Vázquez at #23 was a mild surprise to me given his remaining contract and poor offensive season last year, but his defense was sound. 

Here's that link:  https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/11/top-25-offseason-trade-candidates.html

[CoasterProductions]

After reading I definitely think that we should move Polanco and Kepler. Polanco could be used to acquire a controllable started along the likes of Freddie Peralta. Kepler I think should be moved for a more controllable outfielder with a very similar yet more consistent hitting profile in Lane Thomas. I would also be willing to move either Farmer or Larnach to get Alek Manoah and possibly sign someone like Whit Merrifield or Kevin Kiermaier. As for a Polanco replacement I think that it would be good to give Brooks Lee a legitimate shot at taking the starting job at second.

[Mike Sixel]

I'm not surprised by Vazquez at all, and I've suggested trading him and signing a much cheaper C to replace him. They clearly need the salary space. As for Polanco, no one is trading a SP with more years on his availability for him. Especially not another team that is cutting payroll......

I'd 100% deal Polanco for C or SP prospect(s). Again, they need the money and he plays the same position as Julien and AK (though if they want to put Polanco or Julien at 1B, I'd be ok with that).

Kepler is very unlikely to be dealty, IMO. The already need a CF / very good backup CF.....I can't see them opening up a corner spot at this point.

[chpettit19]

41 minutes ago, CoasterProductions said:

After reading I definitely think that we should move Polanco and Kepler. Polanco could be used to acquire a controllable started along the likes of Freddie Peralta. Kepler I think should be moved for a more controllable outfielder with a very similar yet more consistent hitting profile in Lane Thomas. I would also be willing to move either Farmer or Larnach to get Alek Manoah and possibly sign someone like Whit Merrifield or Kevin Kiermaier. As for a Polanco replacement I think that it would be good to give Brooks Lee a legitimate shot at taking the starting job at second.

The Brewers are not trading Peralta for Polanco, the Nats aren't trading Thomas for Kepler, and the Blue Jays aren't trading Manoah for Farmer or Larnach. There's not even realistic packages that could be built to make all 3 of those trades around those guys.

Freddie Peralta is one of the most valuable assets in baseball due to his contract. You're talking multiple top prospects for him. Why would a team trade a player with similar and more consistent hitting with more control for 1 year of Kepler? Manoah was 3rd in the Cy Young in 2022. They're not going to turn around and trade him for nothing because of a horrid 2023.

[CoasterProductions]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

The Brewers are not trading Peralta for Polanco, the Nats aren't trading Thomas for Kepler, and the Blue Jays aren't trading Manoah for Farmer or Larnach. There's not even realistic packages that could be built to make all 3 of those trades around those guys.

Freddie Peralta is one of the most valuable assets in baseball due to his contract. You're talking multiple top prospects for him. Why would a team trade a player with similar and more consistent hitting with more control for 1 year of Kepler? Manoah was 3rd in the Cy Young in 2022. They're not going to turn around and trade him for nothing because of a horrid 2023.

I never said any specific trade packages I just said that those players would be included in packages with other prospects. Sorry if I made it a little hard to understand.

[2wins87]

Not surprised the Twins might be interested in moving Vazquez for the salary relief, though I'm not sure how productive it would be for the team/payroll.

I don't think they would be comfortable with Camargo as the primary backup, and I would tend to agree; I think he is more of a 3rd catcher at this point. There isn't much depth behind Camargo in any case, so they would probably have to sign another backup anyway.

[Cris E]

I think there are a lot of teams out there clinging to the same RSN wreckage as the Twins, so dumping contracts will be harder this year than most. So I'd probably hang on to Vazquez unless someone came calling for him specifically and I'd try to move Farmer to a team with middle infield issues that's not on the Diamond Sports email list.

I'd trade Kepler while his value is high. He was brutal until after the all-star break, and his second half was way out of line from the work he'd been producing since 2019. Quick, while everyone has October in their eyes, send him out! 

Last point, the payroll is already at about $125m and the guess was it would end up in the 120-140 range, so they only need to cut a bit if they want to add more.  OTOH they do like their December Surprises, so I expect both a trade and a pickup of some famous name.

[Unwinder]

2 hours ago, Cris E said:

I think there are a lot of teams out there clinging to the same RSN wreckage as the Twins, so dumping contracts will be harder this year than most. So I'd probably hang on to Vazquez unless someone came calling for him specifically and I'd try to move Farmer to a team with middle infield issues that's not on the Diamond Sports email list.

On the other hand, maybe the price of free agents will be driven down.

[NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin]

We're probably going to have to do a mix of buying and selling, I don't see many teams that will consider an Arraez/Lopez trade. The Marlins, Mariners, and Blue Jays match up with the Twins' needs, but that's not exactly a huge market.

My guess is that we'll trade Kepler and Polanco to contenders (preferably in the NL) and then turn around and use prospects to target other guys on that list. With the comp pick from Gray, the Twins should be loaded with capital between rounds 1-3 in the draft, so we should be willing to part with a lot of young A-ball prospects in trades with rebuilding teams.

[DJL44]

14 minutes ago, NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin said:

We're probably going to have to do a mix of buying and selling, I don't see many teams that will consider an Arraez/Lopez trade. The Marlins, Mariners, and Blue Jays match up with the Twins' needs, but that's not exactly a huge market.

The Dodgers also match up with the Twins.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Currently here is my gut feel on how things play out.  I think salaries will end up in the 130 to 135 range.   

1.  There is already smoke on Kiermaier.   I do think the Twins will take the chance on him.  A 2 year 13-14 million contract seems reasonable.  This will likely be our headline deal of the year and will fill in with couple other smaller contracts.  

2. One of Polanco and/or Kepler will be traded in the offseason.  Either to facility a another trade or give us a prospect or player in a position of need.   Kepler has had interest from the Yankees and I could see that interest ramping up or other teams.  Red Sox would be an option for Polanco.  They could also be use in a trade for a starter which I discuss below.

3.  We will trade for a starter.   The question is how good of a starter.  Will it be a #2 starter and cost significant prospects, which the Twins will have well replenished their prospects with the 2023 draft and draft capital in the 2024 draft - or will they go for a cheaper reclamation project.  Personally I think they wade into the #2 #3 type of pitcher market.  Milwaukee has already stated they are open for business as well as it appears Seattle is as well.    Seattle has excess pitching and Seattle has lots of holes for hitting.      Here is my trade proposal

Logan Gilbert for Kepler and Lee     Trade simulator Twins 73.9  Mariners 57

The trade seems slightly lopsided but honestly I think Gilberts value in the simulator is a tad high.  I also think Rookies that are eligible for draft compensation if they are rookie of the year have increased value.  

The outfield then consists of Wallner, Kiermaier,  (Buxton, Larnach, Martin)  pick up bargain level fielder for additional depth.  

[harmony55]

21 hours ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Currently here is my gut feel on how things play out.  I think salaries will end up in the 130 to 135 range.   

1.  There is already smoke on Kiermaier.   I do think the Twins will take the chance on him.  A 2 year 13-14 million contract seems reasonable.  This will likely be our headline deal of the year and will fill in with couple other smaller contracts.  

2. One of Polanco and/or Kepler will be traded in the offseason.  Either to facility a another trade or give us a prospect or player in a position of need.   Kepler has had interest from the Yankees and I could see that interest ramping up or other teams.  Red Sox would be an option for Polanco.  They could also be use in a trade for a starter which I discuss below.

3.  We will trade for a starter.   The question is how good of a starter.  Will it be a #2 starter and cost significant prospects, which the Twins will have well replenished their prospects with the 2023 draft and draft capital in the 2024 draft - or will they go for a cheaper reclamation project.  Personally I think they wade into the #2 #3 type of pitcher market.  Milwaukee has already stated they are open for business as well as it appears Seattle is as well.    Seattle has excess pitching and Seattle has lots of holes for hitting.      Here is my trade proposal

Logan Gilbert for Kepler and Lee     Trade simulator Twins 73.9  Mariners 57

The trade seems slightly lopsided but honestly I think Gilberts value in the simulator is a tad high.  I also think Rookies that are eligible for draft compensation if they are rookie of the year have increased value.  

The outfield then consists of Wallner, Kiermaier,  (Buxton, Larnach, Martin)  pick up bargain level fielder for additional depth.  

The Seattle Mariners likely think the simulator undervalues Logan Gilbert, whom the simulator until recently valued at $85.3 million. And the simulator might overvalue Brooks Lee (college teammate of Seattle righthander Bryan Woo) ... or not,

The Mariners, who for each of the past three seasons have won more regular-season games than the National League champs and the Twins, hope to contend in 2024. With mainstays J.P. Crawford and Eugenio Suarez on the left side of the infield Seattle might not have room for Lee next season. That leaves the Mariners with the 2024 downgrade from Gilbert to Kepler.

Not likely to happen.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

47 minutes ago, harmony55 said:

The Seattle Mariners likely think the simulator undervalues Logan Gilbert, whom the simulator until recently valued at $85.3 million. And the simulator might overvalue Brooks Lee (college teammate of Seattle righthander Bryan Woo) ... or not,

The Mariners, who for each of the past three seasons have won more regular-season games than the National League champs and the Twins, hope to contend in 2024. With mainstays J.P. Crawford and Eugenio Suarez on the left side of the infield Seattle might not have room for Lee next season. That leaves the Mariners with the 2024 downgrade from Gilbert to Kepler.

Not likely to happen.

They don't have the bats to compete as constructed.  They are the Miami Marlins of last year.  They need playable bats now.  

https://www.fishstripes.com/2023/1/21/23565105/marlins-luis-arraez-baseball-trade-values

The calculator isn't always right.  That articles states the Marlins significantly overpaid for Arraez.  However that was giving Salas 20 million worth of value.   Salas has a 5.1 million value today after having 20 million last year for the simulator.   Even still in the trade scenario it was 58 million vs 27.   I think you have to assume once you get in the 25 to 30 million range or higher there may be a 15 to 20 million difference in calculation and some variations.  Just like in the Arraez situation the Marlins really liked him.  It would have to be a similar situation for something like this to occur as well.  Yes you never know whether they would value someone like a Julien better or a Brooks Lee.  In either case I believe there is 1 spot in the future and the other is a trade candidate unless you can move Julien to a different position or Lee or Lewis to the outfield.  

[harmony55]

3 hours ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

They don't have the bats to compete as constructed.  They are the Miami Marlins of last year.  They need playable bats now.  

https://www.fishstripes.com/2023/1/21/23565105/marlins-luis-arraez-baseball-trade-values

The calculator isn't always right.  That articles states the Marlins significantly overpaid for Arraez.  However that was giving Salas 20 million worth of value.   Salas has a 5.1 million value today after having 20 million last year for the simulator.   Even still in the trade scenario it was 58 million vs 27.   I think you have to assume once you get in the 25 to 30 million range or higher there may be a 15 to 20 million difference in calculation and some variations.  Just like in the Arraez situation the Marlins really liked him.  It would have to be a similar situation for something like this to occur as well.  Yes you never know whether they would value someone like a Julien better or a Brooks Lee.  In either case I believe there is 1 spot in the future and the other is a trade candidate unless you can move Julien to a different position or Lee or Lewis to the outfield.  

Indeed the Seattle Mariners hope to improve on this year's team OPS+ of 106 and team ERA+ of 109. As points of reference the Twins this season posted a team OPS+ of 106 and a team ERA+ of 111.

The Mariners will look to at least replace the team-average OPS+ of 106 posted by the departed Teoscar Hernandez.

Baseball Trade Values provides only an calculated estimate that could be wrong ... in either direction. Regardless the Mariners are unlikely to trade Logan Gilbert to the Twins. Seattle would be reluctant to trade six years of righthander Emerson Hancock for a single year of Max Kepler or two years of Jorge Polanco.

 

 

[FlyingFinn]

4 hours ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

or Lee or Lewis to the outfield. 

Lee will never be in the outfield. Lewis is very athletic and that is mostly wasted at 3B.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, FlyingFinn said:

Lee will never be in the outfield. Lewis is very athletic and that is mostly wasted at 3B.

Would you say that about Alex Bregman or Manny Machado? Royce is an above average fielding 3B, I'm not sure how that is a "waste". 3B is a defense first position.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

18 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Would you say that about Alex Bregman or Manny Machado? Royce is an above average fielding 3B, I'm not sure how that is a "waste". 3B is a defense first position.

DJL,  I agree.  Someone is going to have to play a different position, whether 1st base or outfield,  if you keep them all.  Or you will have to trade 1 or keep Lee in the minors unless there is an injury.  The only other options are to move Julien to DH or 1st even though he seems to be settling in quite nicely into second base.  

[Doctor Gast]

6 hours ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

They don't have the bats to compete as constructed.  They are the Miami Marlins of last year.  They need playable bats now.  

https://www.fishstripes.com/2023/1/21/23565105/marlins-luis-arraez-baseball-trade-values

The calculator isn't always right.  That articles states the Marlins significantly overpaid for Arraez.  However that was giving Salas 20 million worth of value.   Salas has a 5.1 million value today after having 20 million last year for the simulator.   Even still in the trade scenario it was 58 million vs 27.   I think you have to assume once you get in the 25 to 30 million range or higher there may be a 15 to 20 million difference in calculation and some variations.  Just like in the Arraez situation the Marlins really liked him.  It would have to be a similar situation for something like this to occur as well.  Yes you never know whether they would value someone like a Julien better or a Brooks Lee.  In either case I believe there is 1 spot in the future and the other is a trade candidate unless you can move Julien to a different position or Lee or Lewis to the outfield.  

I've heard that the MIA won't listen to any trades unless it includes a viable catcher.

[FlyingFinn]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Would you say that about Alex Bregman or Manny Machado? Royce is an above average fielding 3B, I'm not sure how that is a "waste". 3B is a defense first position.

We just disagree. I believe CF, SS and catcher are the defense first positions. Alex Bregman and Manny Machado are not as athletic as Royce Lewis. I wouldn't want Bregman or Machado ever playing CF. 

[DJL44]

15 hours ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

The only other options are to move Julien to DH or 1st even though he seems to be settling in quite nicely into second base.  

Or you trade someone. Often times it is better to trade a player rather than moving them to a less ideal defensive position.

[DJL44]

14 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

We just disagree. I believe CF, SS and catcher are the defense first positions. Alex Bregman and Manny Machado are not as athletic as Royce Lewis. I wouldn't want Bregman or Machado ever playing CF. 

I don't see Lewis as an above average fielding CF. His sprint speed was closer to Matt Wallner than it was to Willi Castro.

He's already above average at 3B.

[stringer bell]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

I don't see Lewis as an above average fielding CF. His sprint speed was closer to Matt Wallner than it was to Willi Castro.

He's already above average at 3B.

Wallner’s sprint speed is 67th percentile, faster than two thirds of mlb players. Royce is a little faster than that. Speed (or lack of it) would not eliminate Lewis from playing center field.

Lewis has played precious little on the grass. We don’t really know what kind of jumps he would get, if he has an outfield arm or the right instincts. He’s a great athlete, so I would expect he could adapt to the OF, but he is unproven, for sure  

BTW, it isn’t pure leg speed. Acuña of the Braves is measured as slower than Wallner, but he stole 73 bases last year. 

[JD-TWINS]

On 11/14/2023 at 1:03 PM, chpettit19 said:

The Brewers are not trading Peralta for Polanco, the Nats aren't trading Thomas for Kepler, and the Blue Jays aren't trading Manoah for Farmer or Larnach. There's not even realistic packages that could be built to make all 3 of those trades around those guys.

Freddie Peralta is one of the most valuable assets in baseball due to his contract. You're talking multiple top prospects for him. Why would a team trade a player with similar and more consistent hitting with more control for 1 year of Kepler? Manoah was 3rd in the Cy Young in 2022. They're not going to turn around and trade him for nothing because of a horrid 2023.

chpettit……even I think the trades suggested for Polanco & Kepler are far fetched to the max…….you shot me down the other day, rightfully so, with Polanco - Miranda - Winder - Rodriguez & somebody else for 1 year of Burnes……,,Peralta for 3 years at $6-$12M over those years IS THE BEST trade target for pitching in MLB……..,Jorge (plus 3 prospects, maybe) for him is pretty silly to discuss.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

chpettit……even I think the trades suggested for Polanco & Kepler are far fetched to the max…….you shot me down the other day, rightfully so, with Polanco - Miranda - Winder - Rodriguez & somebody else for 1 year of Burnes……,,Peralta for 3 years at $6-$12M over those years IS THE BEST trade target for pitching in MLB……..,Jorge (plus 3 prospects, maybe) for him is pretty silly to discuss.

It's sort of a weird situation when you have someone like Peralta. He's so good and so cheap that it almost makes him untradeable because you simply can't get an equal return for him unless somebody completely blows up the top of their system, and nobody does that (or at least it's very, very rare). If he's traded it's almost guaranteed to be for less than they should get for him. I don't think they'll trade him, at least partially because of this.

[Major League Ready]

On 11/15/2023 at 10:47 AM, NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin said:

We're probably going to have to do a mix of buying and selling, I don't see many teams that will consider an Arraez/Lopez trade. The Marlins, Mariners, and Blue Jays match up with the Twins' needs, but that's not exactly a huge market.

My guess is that we'll trade Kepler and Polanco to contenders (preferably in the NL) and then turn around and use prospects to target other guys on that list. With the comp pick from Gray, the Twins should be loaded with capital between rounds 1-3 in the draft, so we should be willing to part with a lot of young A-ball prospects in trades with rebuilding teams.

I think Polanco gets traded to the highest bidder.  Kepler .... I just don't know.  Do the Twins believe his turnaround is sustainable.  They are thin in the OF so I don't see them trading him if they believe.  My guess is that Kepler only goes if they really like the return but they take the best offer available for Polanco.   Farmer is the biggest mystery to me.  He fits really well in a platoon with Julien and he provides flexibility.   I think they hold onto farmer unless they get an offer they really like.

[Mike Sixel]

6 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

I think Polanco gets traded to the highest bidder.  Kepler .... I just don't know.  Do the Twins believe his turnaround is sustainable.  They are thin in the OF so I don't see them trading him if they believe.  My guess is that Kepler only goes if they really like the return but they take the best offer available for Polanco.   Farmer is the biggest mystery to me.  He fits really well in a platoon with Julien and he provides flexibility.   I think they hold onto farmer unless they get an offer they really like.

That's my belief also.

[AlwaysinModeration]

On 11/14/2023 at 1:03 PM, chpettit19 said:

The …Blue Jays aren't trading Manoah for Farmer or Larnach. ……Manoah was 3rd in the Cy Young in 2022. They're not going to turn around and trade him for nothing because of a horrid 2023.

So, Manoah is listed as the 19th “top trade candidate” by MLB Trade Rumors, and the Blue Jays say they will give him every chance to win the 5th spot in the rotation.  MLB Trade Rumors speculates that a trade for a lower ceiling, higher floor arm might be desirable to Toronto.

I looked over his numbers.  His fastball and slider are both down 1mph this past season.  His walk rate skyrocketed last year, and Ks were down.  Maybe he regressed, but maybe  he  was playing injured.  

If there is any chance the Twins could trade for him, it seems like he could be the sort of multi-year, buy-low trade candidate the Twins could go after.  He’s got four years of control left, so even if he didn’t bounce back right away, he’d have time.

What would it take?  I would think they’d have to start with either Kepler or Polanco, and then throw in a pitching prospect, like Raya, Prielipp, or Canterino.

Baseball Trade Values, for what it’s worth, bears this out.

Manoah:  14.4

Kepler:  8.9

Raya: 6.9

Prielipp:  5.7

Canterino:  5.2

Also…Winder 4.9, Varland 4.9, Polanco: 4.5.  

Kepler / Prielipp for Manoah, would that work? Or if they are in win now, would including Winder or Varland be workable?

[weitz41]

I noticed Vasquez as well when I 1st saw that on MLB trade rumors. I get the 10 mil for 65 OPS+ on the surface is a big overpay. Yes, Jeffers was by far the most valuable catcher of the two. Can we predict health? Regression? What's the value of Vasquez defense and game calling? In theory we had/have one of the better catching combos in the majors. COMBOS.. Sure, Rushman or Realmuto are better but one hamstring strain and do you want Vasquez or McCann behind the plate? 12.3 mil in salary for the pair in 2024 or 23.8 mil for Realmuto with a hamstring strain? 

Polanco makes sense to move, even if I'd prefer, they didn't. Kepler I'm not convinced the next man up is going to be close to Kepler last season. Also not convinced he will repeat it in 2024. I expect one or both to be traded before spring training.

This is a useful site when thinking about payroll.

Minnesota Twins 2024 Salaries & Payroll Table | Spotrac

[chpettit19]

13 hours ago, AlwaysinModeration said:

So, Manoah is listed as the 19th “top trade candidate” by MLB Trade Rumors, and the Blue Jays say they will give him every chance to win the 5th spot in the rotation.  MLB Trade Rumors speculates that a trade for a lower ceiling, higher floor arm might be desirable to Toronto.

I looked over his numbers.  His fastball and slider are both down 1mph this past season.  His walk rate skyrocketed last year, and Ks were down.  Maybe he regressed, but maybe  he  was playing injured.  

If there is any chance the Twins could trade for him, it seems like he could be the sort of multi-year, buy-low trade candidate the Twins could go after.  He’s got four years of control left, so even if he didn’t bounce back right away, he’d have time.

What would it take?  I would think they’d have to start with either Kepler or Polanco, and then throw in a pitching prospect, like Raya, Prielipp, or Canterino.

Baseball Trade Values, for what it’s worth, bears this out.

Manoah:  14.4

Kepler:  8.9

Raya: 6.9

Prielipp:  5.7

Canterino:  5.2

Also…Winder 4.9, Varland 4.9, Polanco: 4.5.  

Kepler / Prielipp for Manoah, would that work? Or if they are in win now, would including Winder or Varland be workable?

If they can get him for something reasonable I think it'd be a really big swing they can take. His ceiling is higher than Lopez, but this last season was a disaster for him. Injury would make a lot of sense. If they could do a Kepler/Polanco plus Winder type deal to get him I'd do it in a heartbeat, assuming they get medicals and there's nothing too concerning so it's likely he's not a AA player moving forward.

[Major League Ready]

On 11/18/2023 at 10:21 AM, chpettit19 said:

If they can get him for something reasonable I think it'd be a really big swing they can take. His ceiling is higher than Lopez, but this last season was a disaster for him. Injury would make a lot of sense. If they could do a Kepler/Polanco plus Winder type deal to get him I'd do it in a heartbeat, assuming they get medicals and there's nothing too concerning so it's likely he's not a AA player moving forward.

That deal has a lot of potential upside but I would think Toronto wants pitching back.  Either a great prospect or more likely if it were the Twins, Ryan or Ober.  That potentially hurts us for several years where the downside of the deal you suggested is one year where Kepler is concerned and we have multiple potential replacements for Polanco.  This one is the definition of high risk / high reward.